Let's talk about the judgment of future market trends.
First, the conclusion: Overall, it seems that the major asset is gradually exiting the left-side downtrend channel, and it may gradually require finding pullback opportunities to increase positions; the overall thinking may need to start gradually shifting to a bullish mindset.
Possible situations in the near future:
(Relatively low probability) If the major asset starts a large-scale main rising wave, it may not reach too high (accumulation of chips, adjustment time, etc., similar to a power accumulation action may still be insufficient, and the US stock market is somewhat in a state of transition, which does not support large-scale risk-on expansion).
(Relatively high probability) If the major asset tries to start right-side consolidation for a second test but does not fall below the 83,000 starting platform, the subsequent momentum may go very high and far.
In early May, with repeated tariff fluctuations + downward revisions of forward EPS in the US stock earnings season, the US stock market experienced a drop, which may provide a good pullback buying opportunity, but the premise is that the major asset falls with the US stock market (possibly around 85,000); gradually entering June to July, as Trump starts to release the second phase of 'deregulation + internal tax cuts', the dollar risk assets may strengthen a trend line in the third quarter, which may greatly boost the main rising wave of the major asset.
Macro view: Under the leadership of right-wing figures like Navarro and Lighthizer at the beginning of April, the risk asset market experienced the largest drop. Looking back now, the most difficult times should have gradually passed; currently, tariffs are moderate with left-wing Bessent in charge.
Next, if the tariff right-wing counterattacks + the large companies lower future profit expectations during the earnings season at the end of April and the beginning of May, it may again cause turmoil in the financial market. In the medium term, Trump's governance roadmap may implement tax cuts and deregulation benefits by early June at the latest, boosting the market risk-on. The FED may also start to reopen the interest rate cut pathway at the FOMC on 6/18: on 5/3, further details of the national-level BTC reserve bill will be announced, and there may be more state-level favorable policies for buying coins from June to August.
Chip structure: In the short term, arbitrage remains concentrated around 95,000 to 98,000. To soar, more time may be needed to grind through these high-level trapped positions. To be honest, the macro environment is in an unprecedented chaos.
Under Trump's operations, the market may have 100 directions in a day, which is quite headache-inducing. Analyzing by following Trump's tail will only lead to continued losses. I think it is better to return to some essential ideas of big rhythms, which will make it easier to clarify thoughts.
In summary, it is still a bit early to talk about trend reversal. The reason is that the current fluctuations are still dominated by Trump's policy signals, and there are no substantial positive factors in the economic fundamentals, so the GDP data set to be announced at the end of the month will be key.
