A wave of sharp decline after the holiday
Circuit breaker wave in Japan and South Korea stock markets
The Nikkei 225 index plummets 9%, triggering a circuit breaker, hitting a new low since October 2023; the Tokyo Stock Exchange Financial Index plunges 12%; the KOSPI index in South Korea falls over 4%, prompting the government to urgently suspend programmatic sell orders. Singapore's Nikkei 225 index futures plummet 10.2% during trading, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism.
Gold's safe-haven function fails
COMEX gold futures fall below $3,000/ounce, hitting a low of $2,978, marking a new three-week low; the gold ETF holdings drop to the lowest level since November 2023.
Epic sell-off of commodities
International crude oil plunges 11% to a four-year low, tin drops 9.3% in a single day, and copper prices record the largest single-day drop since the 2008 Lehman crisis. The Fed's hawkish stance intensifies panic. Powell clearly states there will be no intervention in the market, leading to the collapse of "Fed put option" expectations, while real interest rates surge, suppressing risk assets. The impact of US-China tariffs continues to ferment. The unexpected tariff policy from the US triggers global supply chain panic, with major US stock indices cumulatively dropping 9%-10% since the announcement. Cryptocurrencies crash across the board.
Bitcoin drops 5%, Ethereum plummets 10%, and other tokens generally fall over 15%, with market liquidity sharply contracting.
Familiar sight: a replay of 2008
The current situation feels familiar, as if we're back in 2008. High debt, unstable banks, an overheated market, and political chaos—all warning signals are flashing bright red. However, market participants are overly optimistic, failing to perceive the impending crisis. Just like before the collapse in 2008, the system appears stable on the surface… until it suddenly crashes.
I have been mentioning this viewpoint for over a month; it is basically mentioned in every article, and the VIP has been discussing this level. We have been in cash until now, waiting for this wave of the gold pit!
It now feels more like short-term hedging. This may be a release of sentiment in anticipation of Monday's US-EU tariff countermeasures; there’s no sign of massive panic on-chain, and the structure has not been broken, with more selling coming from inventory within exchanges. If US stock futures continue to weaken tonight, Asia might carry on the panic, but as long as there’s no economic recession, I believe 70K remains a reasonable support level. I will continue to buy in batches, but with small positions and caution, waiting for the tariffs to land and GDP data before making further buying decisions. In times when the decline seems unjustified, it’s actually worth paying the most attention.
Surviving investors need to remember:
Bloody chips always appear when everyone is filled with a sense of luck questioning 'this time is different.'