tomorrow投资日记

Correct way to buy coins: Buy on dips, buy sideways, buy on shrink, do not buy large bullish candles
Buy on dips, do not break the selected trend channel's dip (first choice is the core one)
Buy sideways, buy after the selected period when the moving averages are converging
Buy on shrink, buy after small bullish candles when the distance to the platform point has a risk-reward ratio and shows reduced volume
Do not buy large bullish candles, do not buy a single candle with dozens of percentage increases or distance to platform support with dozens of percentage increases
Buying coins, timing, pricing, the key is patience, this is for you, take it if you understand, and please give a thumbs up if you can easily do so
#BTC

Some influencers are too annoying, but the key is that they keep pushing them to me, so I have to force them to block them. Sorry, brother, I really don’t want to read your short-selling analysis in the bull market. Let’s release you when the market is bearish.

BTC has reached a new high. I asked my wife if she was happy, and she said she wasn't, because she wasn't fully invested and made less profit. The group is so quiet; is it the same situation? Those who aren't fully invested are hoping for a crash, even though they still have positions in the market. This mindset needs to be treated, haha; for those of you who are fully invested, you probably aren't happy either because you didn't use 125x leverage, right?

This round of bears is actually working hard, but unfortunately, they have no chips in hand, and those who missed out dare not chase. The sentiment of concentrated shorting is very severe. There is always a contradiction in the market, which is the contradiction in liquidity fundamentals. The spot market is like this, so the final battle is in the futures market, where there won't be enough counterparties for a while, making it difficult to go down in the short term. Previously, we mentioned that the market is not short of money; what's lacking is a favorable stimulus after a rise to let retail investors take over. So tell me, when will good news come out? Have you got on board? These are the key points. Subjectively, a rapid rise followed by a slow decline is a sign of concentrated chips. You don't have to chase the highs, just avoid shorting;
Subjectively, I believe this wave of market should indeed enter an adjustment phase. Right now, nothing has a risk-reward ratio, except for the logic of holding BTC combined with the long-term cycle, which continues to look bullish. Everything else can be regarded as garbage, including ETH. If you can't help but FOMO into BTC, there may still be hope after getting stuck, but the indicators for BTC have deviated too severely. Consolidation can be divided into sideways and pullbacks. If BTC can move sideways, then this wave will not go up; we are still looking at June.

For traders, a bull market has not reached its end, and the core position should never be lost no matter what. The core position is a trader's bottom line; it ensures that you have the courage to chase the trend next time. For example, if something worth 1 yuan rises to 10 yuan, and the trend and logic continue to indicate an upward movement, if you take profits on the left side, you can only offload the leveraged and fluctuating portion of your position. Never lose your core position. If next time you encounter a buying pattern at 11 or 12 yuan, if you still have your core position, it will be very easy for you to chase it. However, if your core position is gone, you might end up in a trading dilemma. Having been through it, you understand.

In a bull market, you need to learn to trade in one direction. When indicators deviate excessively, such as moving averages and prices, you can take profit in batches and look for buying points next time. Ultimately, it's still about buying sideways, buying dips, buying averages, and buying the lows. The truth is, trading skills can be summed up in just a few words, but we often fail to execute them. Buffett mentions the simplest ways to make money every year, but you and I don't have Buffett's scale. What he says is correct, but I can't execute it. As for trading skills, they don't exist if your account exceeds 10U.

High volume price does not rise, emotions are reflected in FOMO. Retail investors initially will not chase high prices, but if emotions FOMO, they will follow suit. A rise without volume is a real rise; a rise with volume should be approached in stages. Currently, taking profits on a portion of the volume is not a problem. As for betting on altcoins for a rebound, gaining is a blessing, and not gaining is also understandable. Just benefiting from the rise of BTC is already very good.

Currently, the profits from BTC that can be seen have been earned. I mentioned earlier that the money entrusted to me by my relatives and friends has all been taken out during this rebound at 97. I can keep a portion of my position to follow the market swings in anticipation of higher future prices. It's difficult for them to make real profits; they can only take supplements and not laxatives. If the money given to them is taken away, I neither hold a bearish view nor a bullish one. The first buying point for this rebound is around 75; even in a bear market, buying at 75 has a chance for a structural rebound to 85. The second buying point is at 84, where a pattern confirmation can be used for additional positions. However, it has now reached 97, and there is no longer any short-term cost-effectiveness here. Open positions and continue to wait for a pattern and better risk-reward points. Strategies are good. Don't develop a habit of being fully invested and unable to sleep. Focus on the larger trends and future. Do not easily move the base position; if you do, when the next candlestick confirms and continues upwards and is higher than your selling point, you will hesitate a lot when you chase.

I am just sharing, without any intention of preaching. My trading strategy is to adhere to the fundamentals of candlestick analysis, with trading logic as the main focus. I simply use what I am comfortable with. How to buy and sell depends on the profit-loss ratio. For those who like to chase highs based on news, you should pay more attention to the profit-loss ratio. I just ambush the news and explain the fundamentals once the news is out.

Following the previous tweet, the current BTC
K-line fundamentals, looking at the 3-day line, the upward momentum is still there. As for the weekly line, it is still too far from the specified periodic moving average (I personally tend to use MA30, 60, 120);
data-wise, stablecoins are gradually increasing, the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to flow out, and BlackRock's ETF is still buying;
On the news side, New Hampshire has basically hinted at passing BTC's strategic reserve;
Here comes the contradiction: the fundamentals are slightly bearish, the data is bullish, and the news is bullish. One bearish and two bullish, but for me, who trades based on fundamentals, I definitely prioritize sticking to fundamentals and appropriately reducing positions to cope. When the fundamentals align with the data and news, then it's time to go all in;
Comparing to the timing when I sold game accounts to increase positions at over 60,000 BTC, at that time the fundamentals were bullish, the data could be ignored, and the news hadn't materialized (there was an expectation of a major election later, and the anticipation was based on fundamentals). I went all in as well, sticking to the core logic of fundamentals. Once the news is out, it indicates the direction to unlock. You are all waiting for news, but as for trading cryptocurrencies, I don't pay attention to the news;
#BTC

For the financial market, it is essentially driven by the actions of the major players, fundamentally about buying low and selling high. I often see people saying that the market has no money, that the interest rate cut cycle hasn't come, and that the market has no money. I can assure you that this viewpoint has a BUG;
For us traders, we need to understand one thing: is it retail investors who have no money, or is it the major players who have no money? Do you really think that the major players need to take out loans to push the market?
The market is full of smart people. Taking us who focus on fundamentals as an example, we stick to K-line analysis to find buying points, and there are three types;
One is a long-term downtrend, where after a balance between long and short, a buying point is chosen (the source of the five-step method);
Two is a consolidation pattern during a price uptrend. You can say that they are structuring to deceive you; if they don't deceive you, how would you get on board? It's because most people understand it, and they deceive you into getting in. When everyone jumps in together, there is also inertia in the upward movement. You can still make money by chasing it. This type of trade should be taken off the table in a timely manner after completing a pattern, as your entry cost is slightly higher;
Three is the washout pattern after a breakout, generally confirmed by observing the position through a pullback and volume contraction. For the major players, since they choose to break out, they must have enough control over the market. Adjustments are just to wash out the weak hands. Describing this in words is relatively complicated;
Regarding the above three types, whether you think it is deception or just cutting losses, what you can do is follow the trend, which requires some K-line logic;
Now the core question arises: when we say the market lacks money, is it the retail investors who lack it or the major players? In fact, it is neither. Retail investors need a reason to chase the price up, and the major players cannot push the price to an outrageous level without news to drive retail investors to take over. It's that simple. If you insist on saying that there is a lack of money or some other deficiency, I won't argue with you; you are always right;
Is K-line useful? It depends on how you interpret it. Those who understand K and logic can make money, but while observing K, it must also be combined with fundamentals and news, and understanding when to focus on what weights can complicate things;
The reason I have held onto BTC from below 20,000 to 97-100,000 and then reduced my position is because of the contradictions that appeared between K-line, fundamentals, data, and news. However, I absolutely do not mean to say that there is no money in the market to push BTC to continue rising;
The above content is purely imaginative. If useful, add it to your favorites and look back at my post after two years of trading;
#BTC

Remind the fans to withdraw their funds from the small exchange as soon as possible. If you are still trading, return to the market leader BN OKX. I withdrew my last 50,000 USDT from the small exchange today. It's not about distrust; it's just that it's hard to get through the cold winter. Although the small exchange is small, it has everything, and it's just a place for idle money. If you have little money, you might not take it seriously. The market is depleted, and sudden issues can easily arise; especially for those following KOL contracts on the small exchange, retreat quickly.

From the current contract holding structure of BTC, this wave of CME is clearly out of sync with the increments of BN and OKX; recently, this mysterious figure has been buying a lot, not from the US side;
This wave of 95-97 is purely aimed at the contract market, and the responsibility no longer lies with the US side; so how to respond, the captain will upload a YOUTUBE video shortly for you to check;
#BTC

In conventional thinking, retail investors see BTC at 97,000 and should FOMO in. The reality is that the current funding rate for BTC is negative, have you missed out?
PS; A rise without volume is a real rise, you can take profits, but how do you think about shorting? Do you think 100,000 will be BTC's double top?
#BTC

The ALPACA situation is very likely to cause some people to go to zero. Your short-selling logic is that it will be delisted; you think it's a revival, and when you short-sell, you get trapped. You will definitely choose to hold on, and even add to your position because you think it's an opportunity. But ALPACA has surged 100 times. Can you withstand that? Even if you have $100,000, if you play with $10,000, at that multiple, you insist that it will go down because it's going to be delisted, right? You think it's a revival, and when you're trapped, you will definitely add to your position and hold on. In the end, my brother couldn't hold on. Initially planning to make some pocket money, he ended up losing money equivalent to a foot massage; I've personally seen someone around me play contracts with $500,000 and end up with a liquidation of $15 million. This is the way it is, how tragic; #alpaca

The current cryptocurrency market has a contradiction between a technical pattern and liquidity, while KOL-promoted altcoins are forcibly providing liquidity. BTC is the least affected by this contradiction, so at this stage, it is not suitable to play with altcoins. Holding BTC and traveling from March to May is the best strategy. Wishing fans a smooth 51st holiday;
#BTC

The least agreeable statement is that the reason you haven't made money is due to your lack of understanding. I dare say that the vast majority of people who make money do so first and then gradually catch up with their understanding;
What is understanding? It's something new, something that most people haven't participated in. It's not important. Being able to use little money to leap across life stages relies on luck, luck, that is the key;
Which teacher would genuinely tell you that his so-called understanding has caused him to lose countless times, and then once he succeeded, he would start teaching you?
😂😂😂

If BTC is bullish, the adjustment patterns for the continuation are roughly the two types shown in red and yellow in the image below. There is still a possibility of a weekly rebound to 90,000 USD (before the end of the month);
If we truly enter a bear market, with BTC currently at 80,800 USD, there is a risk/reward ratio for spot buying. If the weekly chart effectively breaks below 80,000 USD and heads towards 75,000, it will indeed take longer to confirm a recovery for the bull market. However, a technical rebound to 80,000-85,000 can also help recover losses. Therefore, in the short term, I do not expect the market to revisit previous lows. Hold steady with your spot positions and we'll reassess around 90,000 USD.
#BTC

The March market will continuously torment short-term traders with both bulls and bears, and it is still expected that BTC will touch 9 again before the end of the month.

The core of trading is not predicting the market, but responding to the market;
Old Pu also agrees with this statement;
If you understand this, you won't keep asking others how much they see, how much they see, as it is also a gradual process, confirmed step by step;
How to improve the win rate in trading? The simplest method is to withstand fluctuations, and the larger the trading plan's cycle, the lower the tolerance rate naturally. This is also the reason why many people choose not to act. Small retail investors cannot achieve this, just like some time ago, when you were all worried about 100,000 dropping to 80,000, always concerned about how much I would lose. My response at that time was that even if BTC fell to 20,000 USD, it wouldn't stop me from buying 6 buns for 5 dollars a day. This statement may seem arrogant, but I can't stubbornly hold on to 20,000. When the trend of the cycle I chose is confirmed gone, I cut my position faster than anyone else. I am not a person who drags things out;

#BTC