Why are we obsessed with escaping from the left side? Because a top is formed, such as an M top or a head and shoulders top, to confirm the right side's shape, it's generally normal to see a distance of -20-30% from the top;

Taking the weekly line as the trading trend cycle, for example, the current price of BTC is 115,000 USD, dropping to 97,000 USD just touches the upper median line. Here, we need to observe the volume and contract data to see if it's a sudden drop due to news or a gradual decline. These two natures are different. A sudden drop with heavy volume may allow for bottom fishing, but a gradual decline that breaks down is not suitable for bottom fishing. Using the weekly line as the cycle, we need to confirm an effective drop below 80,000 USD to confirm the shape of the weekly line and that the bull market has ended. This range of 120,000-80,000 is generally where the doubts between bulls and bears are the greatest. Both bulls and bears have reasons, but they are all speculation. Simply from the market, no viewpoint can be supported or refuted, so that's why smart traders habitually reduce their positions to take profits after a main upward wave has completed, waiting for opportunities;

The larger the arbitrage space, the higher the risk. Remember what the captain said about contract-led hedging, with spot market cooperation for stretching. The early cooperation of contracts and spot market growth is supportive, but once the distance from the bottom becomes large enough, this may no longer hold. Now there are still people with money wanting to rush in. I can't say the trend has ended, but the risk is also increasing. Most chasing high prices are floating profits without understanding stop-loss control of positions, ultimately getting trapped and resorting to adding positions, which leads to being stuck; (Remember I mentioned that breaking and effectively breaking are two different concepts)

The current play of BTC is the standard play of leading stocks in the US stock market. So what are the characteristics of the trend of US technology stocks? They keep falling, falling to the bottom, with no rebound for months, and any rebound is a V-shape, with no retracement. Will BTC behave this way? Time will tell;

I advise everyone not to bring more people into the market. If you make a profit, they won't thank you; if they incur losses, you will have to bear the consequences.