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鬼才队长-关注不迷路

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Today the wear is very high. It's three times more than usual, which is strange.
Today the wear is very high. It's three times more than usual, which is strange.
凭空多我一个富豪
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$ZKJ How did you all do it? Why is my wear so significant? Come teach me! Slide point 0.1
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$LTC really never thought about shorting this, which could earn three times with just one times; when do we need to buy more?
$LTC really never thought about shorting this, which could earn three times with just one times; when do we need to buy more?
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If there are still people asking, then it's not the bottom
If there are still people asking, then it's not the bottom
Maida Dekort COAI
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$1000SATS Everyone is asking when will it come out? When everyone has lost hope, that is now!!!!
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Retail investors can't hold on and will cut losses, do you think institutional investors won't? With a general bull market, don't think you can replicate the previous rounds in the future. There will still be some individual cases, but if you want an overall bull market, you need to view it rationally [😅 Whether it's interest rate hikes, balance sheet reductions, US stocks, or external policies, none of these are the biggest stumbling blocks on the road to a counterfeit bull market. Our problems lie within ourselves; 80% of the market's fakes are being hyped up by our own people, but the strongest historical regulations have restricted the market's free liquidity. Just a small anomaly can trigger the risk control system, 👮🏻‍♂️ the authorities can immediately call you or summon you. Newcomers are hesitant to enter, and older investors find it hard to exit, the cheap issuance mechanism has led to many tools and fewer resources. If blockchain loses its freedom, the dragon has suffered a critical blow. This repeats what was said two years ago, so consider it a unified response.
Retail investors can't hold on and will cut losses, do you think institutional investors won't?
With a general bull market, don't think you can replicate the previous rounds in the future.
There will still be some individual cases, but if you want an overall bull market, you need to view it rationally [😅
Whether it's interest rate hikes, balance sheet reductions, US stocks, or external policies,
none of these are the biggest stumbling blocks on the road to a counterfeit bull market.
Our problems lie within ourselves; 80% of the market's fakes are being hyped up by our own people, but the strongest historical regulations have restricted the market's free liquidity. Just a small anomaly can trigger the risk control system, 👮🏻‍♂️ the authorities can immediately call you or summon you.
Newcomers are hesitant to enter, and older investors find it hard to exit, the cheap issuance mechanism has led to many tools and fewer resources.
If blockchain loses its freedom, the dragon has suffered a critical blow.
This repeats what was said two years ago, so consider it a unified response.
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Is it so lively in the group today? Everyone is cursing these two. So funny.
Is it so lively in the group today? Everyone is cursing these two. So funny.
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$1000SATS Early in the morning, hundreds of messages. I thought the bull market had arrived, but it turns out everyone in the group was just coding this stuff 😂
$1000SATS Early in the morning, hundreds of messages. I thought the bull market had arrived, but it turns out everyone in the group was just coding this stuff 😂
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Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will keep the benchmark rate unchanged. Half an hour later, the speech is slightly hawkish and a small negative. From March 20 to April 20, this interval shows a six-month stage bottom for Bitcoin, and later it stabilizes and starts to speculate on the resumption of rate cuts in June. The genius screenwriter has already written the script; let's see if the market director can stage it this way. 😯
Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will keep the benchmark rate unchanged. Half an hour later, the speech is slightly hawkish and a small negative.
From March 20 to April 20, this interval shows a six-month stage bottom for Bitcoin, and later it stabilizes and starts to speculate on the resumption of rate cuts in June.
The genius screenwriter has already written the script; let's see if the market director can stage it this way. 😯
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$TRUMP I think it’s only a matter of time before it falls below 10, it won’t take long.
$TRUMP I think it’s only a matter of time before it falls below 10, it won’t take long.
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Time Issues
Time Issues
鬼才队长-关注不迷路
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After the CPE announcement, the price of Bitcoin rose overnight from 782,000 to the current 850,000. The PCE merely met expectations without bringing much surprise. This rise is more of a rebound after an oversell rather than a fundamental change in form. It seems that the expectations for December are still valid, and a drop to around 70,000 is just a matter of time.
To reverse this situation, there are a few points to pay attention to:
1. Changes in policy. The Bitcoin reserve bill applied for by over 20 states has already explicitly rejected two states. Next, we will see if the Bitcoin reserve bill can be passed by one state first.
Also, the change in BlackRock ETF net outflows, which have recently exceeded 2.2 billion USD.
2. The trade war with the United States is about to reignite, directly causing avoidance funds to withdraw from high-risk cryptocurrencies and invest in other stable assets instead. At the same time, trade will surely push up inflation, thereby affecting the interest rate reduction process.
3. The theft incident at the Bybit exchange has raised a trust crisis regarding exchange security, as 1.5 billion USD worth of Ethereum has not yet been fully digested.
See original
After the CPE announcement, the price of Bitcoin rose overnight from 782,000 to the current 850,000. The PCE merely met expectations without bringing much surprise. This rise is more of a rebound after an oversell rather than a fundamental change in form. It seems that the expectations for December are still valid, and a drop to around 70,000 is just a matter of time. To reverse this situation, there are a few points to pay attention to: 1. Changes in policy. The Bitcoin reserve bill applied for by over 20 states has already explicitly rejected two states. Next, we will see if the Bitcoin reserve bill can be passed by one state first. Also, the change in BlackRock ETF net outflows, which have recently exceeded 2.2 billion USD. 2. The trade war with the United States is about to reignite, directly causing avoidance funds to withdraw from high-risk cryptocurrencies and invest in other stable assets instead. At the same time, trade will surely push up inflation, thereby affecting the interest rate reduction process. 3. The theft incident at the Bybit exchange has raised a trust crisis regarding exchange security, as 1.5 billion USD worth of Ethereum has not yet been fully digested.
After the CPE announcement, the price of Bitcoin rose overnight from 782,000 to the current 850,000. The PCE merely met expectations without bringing much surprise. This rise is more of a rebound after an oversell rather than a fundamental change in form. It seems that the expectations for December are still valid, and a drop to around 70,000 is just a matter of time.
To reverse this situation, there are a few points to pay attention to:
1. Changes in policy. The Bitcoin reserve bill applied for by over 20 states has already explicitly rejected two states. Next, we will see if the Bitcoin reserve bill can be passed by one state first.
Also, the change in BlackRock ETF net outflows, which have recently exceeded 2.2 billion USD.
2. The trade war with the United States is about to reignite, directly causing avoidance funds to withdraw from high-risk cryptocurrencies and invest in other stable assets instead. At the same time, trade will surely push up inflation, thereby affecting the interest rate reduction process.
3. The theft incident at the Bybit exchange has raised a trust crisis regarding exchange security, as 1.5 billion USD worth of Ethereum has not yet been fully digested.
See original
The recent decline in the market can be attributed to the following 5 main reasons: 1. Security Incident Shock The world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, Bybit, was hacked on February 21, with hackers stealing over $1.5 billion worth of more than 400,000 ETH and stETH. This incident exposed security vulnerabilities in the industry, leading to serious doubts among investors about the safety of the cryptocurrency market and triggering panic selling. 2. Regulatory Policy Uncertainty The South Dakota legislature postponed a bill, HB 1202, that could allow the state to invest in Bitcoin. This event sent signals of regulatory uncertainty, shaking the market's expectations for institutional capital entry. 3. Macroeconomic Factors The Federal Reserve has released “hawkish” signals, suggesting that high interest rates may persist until 2025, and even the possibility of further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The strengthening dollar index has suppressed the performance of risk assets. The aggressive tariff policies proposed by former U.S. President Trump have caused turbulence in traditional financial markets, prompting investors to sell high-risk assets for safety, with Bitcoin being the first affected. 4. Market-Specific Factors Bitcoin has accumulated a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant overbought pressure. On February 28, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $80,000, marking the lowest point since November 2024. The breach of key support levels triggered a large number of leveraged positions to be forcibly liquidated, resulting in a “long liquidation” effect that accelerated the price decline. 5. Impact of Capital Outflows On February 26, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the largest single-day capital outflow since its inception. Over the past six days, the net outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs has been approximately $2.1 billion. The significant capital outflows have created substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
The recent decline in the market can be attributed to the following 5 main reasons:

1. Security Incident Shock
The world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, Bybit, was hacked on February 21, with hackers stealing over $1.5 billion worth of more than 400,000 ETH and stETH. This incident exposed security vulnerabilities in the industry, leading to serious doubts among investors about the safety of the cryptocurrency market and triggering panic selling.
2. Regulatory Policy Uncertainty
The South Dakota legislature postponed a bill, HB 1202, that could allow the state to invest in Bitcoin. This event sent signals of regulatory uncertainty, shaking the market's expectations for institutional capital entry.
3. Macroeconomic Factors
The Federal Reserve has released “hawkish” signals, suggesting that high interest rates may persist until 2025, and even the possibility of further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The strengthening dollar index has suppressed the performance of risk assets. The aggressive tariff policies proposed by former U.S. President Trump have caused turbulence in traditional financial markets, prompting investors to sell high-risk assets for safety, with Bitcoin being the first affected.
4. Market-Specific Factors
Bitcoin has accumulated a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant overbought pressure. On February 28, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $80,000, marking the lowest point since November 2024. The breach of key support levels triggered a large number of leveraged positions to be forcibly liquidated, resulting in a “long liquidation” effect that accelerated the price decline.
5. Impact of Capital Outflows
On February 26, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded the largest single-day capital outflow since its inception. Over the past six days, the net outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs has been approximately $2.1 billion. The significant capital outflows have created substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
See original
The latest market trends for Bitcoin exhibit the following characteristics: Price Trend Aspect • Range Fluctuation: According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has dropped more than 1.5% in the past 24 hours, trading slightly above $96,000. The trading price in February has generally ranged between $90,000 and $100,000, peaking at $108,786 during Trump’s inauguration at the end of last month. • Adjustment After Upward Fluctuation: The 4-hour candlestick chart on February 6 shows the price breaking through the high of $101,880, but trading volume has decreased simultaneously. As of February 15, although there is an upward fluctuation trend, there are overall signs of a pullback. Market Sentiment Aspect • Neutral Market Sentiment: The market sentiment, tracked by the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, scored 51 points (out of a total of 100) on February 17, indicating that the market is in a 'neutral' state, an improvement from last week's 'fear' level, but lower than last month's more positive market sentiment level. Influencing Factors Aspect • Institutional Capital Support: Institutional investors continue to enter the market, with Bitcoin ETFs managed by institutions like BlackRock having surpassed 1.1 million BTC, accounting for more than 5% of the market circulation. • Technological Upgrade Promotion: The capacity of the Lightning Network has increased to 5,500 BTC, and the Ordinals protocol has driven the explosion of the Bitcoin NFT ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's trading efficiency and application scenarios. • Macroeconomic and Policy Impact: Weak US non-farm data, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy, and the rise of the dollar index to 108 have intensified market fluctuations. • Halving Cycle Effect: The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has driven expectations of supply tightening, with historical data showing that the year following a halving generally sees price peaks. Future Expectations Aspect • Optimistic Scenario: If institutional funds continue to flow in and regulatory policies are implemented, Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and challenge $280,000 by the end of the year. • Conservative Scenario: Macroeconomic fluctuations or ineffective policy implementation, such as delays in Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan, could lead to prices pulling back to the $82,000 - $85,000 range.
The latest market trends for Bitcoin exhibit the following characteristics:

Price Trend Aspect

• Range Fluctuation: According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has dropped more than 1.5% in the past 24 hours, trading slightly above $96,000. The trading price in February has generally ranged between $90,000 and $100,000, peaking at $108,786 during Trump’s inauguration at the end of last month.

• Adjustment After Upward Fluctuation: The 4-hour candlestick chart on February 6 shows the price breaking through the high of $101,880, but trading volume has decreased simultaneously. As of February 15, although there is an upward fluctuation trend, there are overall signs of a pullback.

Market Sentiment Aspect

• Neutral Market Sentiment: The market sentiment, tracked by the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, scored 51 points (out of a total of 100) on February 17, indicating that the market is in a 'neutral' state, an improvement from last week's 'fear' level, but lower than last month's more positive market sentiment level.

Influencing Factors Aspect

• Institutional Capital Support: Institutional investors continue to enter the market, with Bitcoin ETFs managed by institutions like BlackRock having surpassed 1.1 million BTC, accounting for more than 5% of the market circulation.

• Technological Upgrade Promotion: The capacity of the Lightning Network has increased to 5,500 BTC, and the Ordinals protocol has driven the explosion of the Bitcoin NFT ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's trading efficiency and application scenarios.

• Macroeconomic and Policy Impact: Weak US non-farm data, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy, and the rise of the dollar index to 108 have intensified market fluctuations.

• Halving Cycle Effect: The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has driven expectations of supply tightening, with historical data showing that the year following a halving generally sees price peaks.

Future Expectations Aspect

• Optimistic Scenario: If institutional funds continue to flow in and regulatory policies are implemented, Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and challenge $280,000 by the end of the year.

• Conservative Scenario: Macroeconomic fluctuations or ineffective policy implementation, such as delays in Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan, could lead to prices pulling back to the $82,000 - $85,000 range.
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If it drops another half, it will be about right.
If it drops another half, it will be about right.
Quoted content has been removed
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The timing of DOGS's release was really a bummer. The listing time was postponed again and again, and finally this time was chosen. If it hadn't been delayed last week, it could have opened with the expectation of interest rate cuts and its own popularity and traffic, and it could have opened high and closed high. If it had been listed later, it could have waited for Pavel Durov to be arrested and launched directly at the same time, and opened low and closed high. But it chose a market retracement, and listed after Pavel Durov's arrest fermented and cooled down. It didn't get either end [sad face] Now it can only wait until most of the airdrops are sold out, and the group of people behind will double their purchases again. Do you think the airdrops are really giving you rice? No, you will pay attention to it, and you will buy it again ten times or a hundred times [haha] Meme coins are decentralized products, what they need is traffic and hype, and the rest is not that important If one day BTC founder Satoshi Nakamoto is suddenly confirmed to appear in the public eye, it will definitely be a catastrophic crash for Bitcoin It can never be confirmed, and the BTC myth can continue to be passed down#新币挖矿DOGS #Telegram创始人被捕 #dogs
The timing of DOGS's release was really a bummer. The listing time was postponed again and again, and finally this time was chosen.
If it hadn't been delayed last week, it could have opened with the expectation of interest rate cuts and its own popularity and traffic, and it could have opened high and closed high.
If it had been listed later, it could have waited for Pavel Durov to be arrested and launched directly at the same time, and opened low and closed high.
But it chose a market retracement, and listed after Pavel Durov's arrest fermented and cooled down.
It didn't get either end [sad face]
Now it can only wait until most of the airdrops are sold out, and the group of people behind will double their purchases again. Do you think the airdrops are really giving you rice?
No, you will pay attention to it, and you will buy it again ten times or a hundred times [haha]
Meme coins are decentralized products, what they need is traffic and hype, and the rest is not that important
If one day BTC founder Satoshi Nakamoto is suddenly confirmed to appear in the public eye, it will definitely be a catastrophic crash for Bitcoin
It can never be confirmed, and the BTC myth can continue to be passed down#新币挖矿DOGS #Telegram创始人被捕 #dogs
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This bull market is different Many people should feel that this bull market is significantly different from the previous one, mainly manifested in: The wealth effect is insufficient, there is no general rise in the last round, the choice of the target is very important, if you are not careful, you will lose money, most of the currencies can't outperform BTC The trend of value coins is often not as good as Memecoin, and the trend of many value coins listed on the stock exchange is falling all the way The sector is seriously divided, funds only circulate within their own ecosystem, and the rotation is not smooth, giving the market the feeling that there is no synergy The airdrop industry has become very competitive due to the development of scripting and clustering, and many impacts have been generated The narrative led by BTC is not as "fast and rough" as the previous narrative, and it is relatively cold and lonely. At the same time, DEFI does not seem to be favored in the BTC narrative Although Web3 games received huge financing in the last round, they did not produce explosive products
This bull market is different

Many people should feel that this bull market is significantly different from the previous one, mainly manifested in:

The wealth effect is insufficient, there is no general rise in the last round, the choice of the target is very important, if you are not careful, you will lose money, most of the currencies can't outperform BTC
The trend of value coins is often not as good as Memecoin, and the trend of many value coins listed on the stock exchange is falling all the way
The sector is seriously divided, funds only circulate within their own ecosystem, and the rotation is not smooth, giving the market the feeling that there is no synergy
The airdrop industry has become very competitive due to the development of scripting and clustering, and many impacts have been generated
The narrative led by BTC is not as "fast and rough" as the previous narrative, and it is relatively cold and lonely. At the same time, DEFI does not seem to be favored in the BTC narrative
Although Web3 games received huge financing in the last round, they did not produce explosive products
See original
The April non-farm data may seem to be negative, but it is actually positive. The non-farm data exceeded market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will continue to strengthen! Could it be that this wave of adjustment of the short-term bottom of 57,000 has made me guess right again [smiled without saying anything] The non-farm data is the first signal we have been waiting for📶, and we need new fuel to return to 7w🔥, otherwise we can only fluctuate and step back to #BTC走势分析 #apt when we encounter pressure
The April non-farm data may seem to be negative, but it is actually positive. The non-farm data exceeded market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will continue to strengthen!
Could it be that this wave of adjustment of the short-term bottom of 57,000 has made me guess right again [smiled without saying anything]
The non-farm data is the first signal we have been waiting for📶, and we need new fuel to return to 7w🔥, otherwise we can only fluctuate and step back to #BTC走势分析 #apt when we encounter pressure
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Although there is a general rise, the rebound of Bitcoin's second layer and inscription sector is obviously more and stronger, which confirms the previous judgment ​​ #ORDI, #SATS
Although there is a general rise, the rebound of Bitcoin's second layer and inscription sector is obviously more and stronger, which confirms the previous judgment ​​
#ORDI, #SATS
See original
The real bull market has not arrived yet. Why panic? This is how early copycats always work.
The real bull market has not arrived yet. Why panic? This is how early copycats always work.
See original
There are 5 days left before the Bitcoin halving. Many people’s accounts should have their money halved first. In fact, this kind of callback occurs once or twice a year, which is normal and will pass. Since you are not aware of the risk of being trapped or retrieval, it can only be said that you are not aware enough, the market sensitivity is poor, and you did not see my prompts. So where will the opportunity appear next? After the halving, opportunities can focus on two directions. First, the second-layer ecology of Bitcoin. Second, the third wave of opportunities in the inscription #比特币减半 #WIF #APT #sui
There are 5 days left before the Bitcoin halving. Many people’s accounts should have their money halved first.
In fact, this kind of callback occurs once or twice a year, which is normal and will pass. Since you are not aware of the risk of being trapped or retrieval, it can only be said that you are not aware enough, the market sensitivity is poor, and you did not see my prompts.
So where will the opportunity appear next?
After the halving, opportunities can focus on two directions.
First, the second-layer ecology of Bitcoin.
Second, the third wave of opportunities in the inscription #比特币减半 #WIF #APT #sui
See original
Is it possible for a black swan to appear in 2024?The adjustment in the past two days is mainly due to the US government selling the confiscated BTC to the market. Last month, when the group members asked whether there would be a black swan situation similar to the 3.12 and 5.19, the captain made several analyses that may lead to the emergence of black swans. One of them is that the US government sold a large amount of BTC to the market. But the problem is not big. There are 210,000 in the United States, and 2,000 is not much, but this behavior is very unfriendly. It is easy for capital to make wild guesses, I will keep an eye on you if you have any questions. I will always be your friend⭕️ and notify you as soon as possible. In this market, all aspects need to be considered, but we cannot do everything. We should do our best. If there is something that the captain did not expect, it is really a black swan. Just accept your fate.

Is it possible for a black swan to appear in 2024?

The adjustment in the past two days is mainly due to the US government selling the confiscated BTC to the market. Last month, when the group members asked whether there would be a black swan situation similar to the 3.12 and 5.19, the captain made several analyses that may lead to the emergence of black swans. One of them is that the US government sold a large amount of BTC to the market.
But the problem is not big. There are 210,000 in the United States, and 2,000 is not much, but this behavior is very unfriendly. It is easy for capital to make wild guesses,
I will keep an eye on you if you have any questions. I will always be your friend⭕️ and notify you as soon as possible.
In this market, all aspects need to be considered, but we cannot do everything. We should do our best. If there is something that the captain did not expect, it is really a black swan. Just accept your fate.
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