After the CPE announcement, the price of Bitcoin rose overnight from 782,000 to the current 850,000. The PCE merely met expectations without bringing much surprise. This rise is more of a rebound after an oversell rather than a fundamental change in form. It seems that the expectations for December are still valid, and a drop to around 70,000 is just a matter of time.

To reverse this situation, there are a few points to pay attention to:

1. Changes in policy. The Bitcoin reserve bill applied for by over 20 states has already explicitly rejected two states. Next, we will see if the Bitcoin reserve bill can be passed by one state first.

Also, the change in BlackRock ETF net outflows, which have recently exceeded 2.2 billion USD.

2. The trade war with the United States is about to reignite, directly causing avoidance funds to withdraw from high-risk cryptocurrencies and invest in other stable assets instead. At the same time, trade will surely push up inflation, thereby affecting the interest rate reduction process.

3. The theft incident at the Bybit exchange has raised a trust crisis regarding exchange security, as 1.5 billion USD worth of Ethereum has not yet been fully digested.