The latest market trends for Bitcoin exhibit the following characteristics:

Price Trend Aspect

• Range Fluctuation: According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has dropped more than 1.5% in the past 24 hours, trading slightly above $96,000. The trading price in February has generally ranged between $90,000 and $100,000, peaking at $108,786 during Trump’s inauguration at the end of last month.

• Adjustment After Upward Fluctuation: The 4-hour candlestick chart on February 6 shows the price breaking through the high of $101,880, but trading volume has decreased simultaneously. As of February 15, although there is an upward fluctuation trend, there are overall signs of a pullback.

Market Sentiment Aspect

• Neutral Market Sentiment: The market sentiment, tracked by the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, scored 51 points (out of a total of 100) on February 17, indicating that the market is in a 'neutral' state, an improvement from last week's 'fear' level, but lower than last month's more positive market sentiment level.

Influencing Factors Aspect

• Institutional Capital Support: Institutional investors continue to enter the market, with Bitcoin ETFs managed by institutions like BlackRock having surpassed 1.1 million BTC, accounting for more than 5% of the market circulation.

• Technological Upgrade Promotion: The capacity of the Lightning Network has increased to 5,500 BTC, and the Ordinals protocol has driven the explosion of the Bitcoin NFT ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's trading efficiency and application scenarios.

• Macroeconomic and Policy Impact: Weak US non-farm data, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policy, and the rise of the dollar index to 108 have intensified market fluctuations.

• Halving Cycle Effect: The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024 has driven expectations of supply tightening, with historical data showing that the year following a halving generally sees price peaks.

Future Expectations Aspect

• Optimistic Scenario: If institutional funds continue to flow in and regulatory policies are implemented, Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and challenge $280,000 by the end of the year.

• Conservative Scenario: Macroeconomic fluctuations or ineffective policy implementation, such as delays in Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan, could lead to prices pulling back to the $82,000 - $85,000 range.