币市操盘手

Details of the air combat between India and Pakistan are continuously being disclosed. In fact, the Indian Air Force is not as poor as the outside world imagines; their aircraft adopted low-altitude flying tactics before launching missiles to avoid detection by ground radars and early warning aircraft. Furthermore, throughout the operation, the command system coordinated the collaborative actions of nearly a hundred aircraft, all of which never left the coverage area of the S-400 air defense system. An important reason for its failure is that electronic warfare capabilities and satellite reconnaissance levels were indeed completely overwhelmed by China.

The battle over Bitcoin is extremely perilous for the United States. Success means reshaping the Bretton Woods system; failure could lead the nation down a wrong and reckless path. It's hard to imagine that from the federal level to states, and then to the private sector, everyone is adopting an all-in stance!

The victory in the Pakistan Air Battle is indeed China's second Deepseek moment!

The victory in the Pakistan Air Battle is often attributed to the advantages of systematic warfare, especially the ground-air coordination of air defense systems and early warning aircraft, as well as the overwhelming advantage of missile range. However, two key factors are often overlooked—China's provision of electronic warfare systems (including electronic jamming and monitoring) and satellite reconnaissance (which made India almost transparent). Military strength directly determines the depth of economic cooperation. In the past, China's allies were hesitant to easily lean towards China, primarily due to a lack of trust in China's military strength. This has also led to the odd phenomenon where allies depend economically on China while relying on the United States for security. Therefore, the victory in the Pakistan Air Battle not only reassessed the value of China's military-industrial system but also paved the way for the reshaping of the global economic cooperation pattern (such as accepting RMB settlement and joining the 'Belt and Road Initiative').

The gold pullback is just the beginning of Bitcoin's rise!

Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's continued rebound, gold, as the leader of safe-haven assets, has experienced a pullback, raising market concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin's rise. However, the adjustment in gold does not signify the end of the speculation logic for safe-haven assets, but rather is a result of funds switching between different safe-haven assets.

First of all, scarcity is an important factor for gold to become an ideal safe-haven asset, but compared to Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million, the proven reserves of gold are still increasing at a rate of 3,000 tons per year. Additionally, with advancements in mining technology, the production of gold is steadily increasing at a rate of 1.6% per year, while the mining costs are decreasing annually. In contrast, although Bitcoin's mining technology continues to improve and the total network hash rate is continually increasing, due to the built-in difficulty adjustment mechanism, Bitcoin's production still adheres to the halving rule every four years and will completely cease production by 2140. This essential difference in supply characteristics makes Bitcoin the first absolute scarce asset in history with mathematical certainty, while gold maintains a relative scarcity characteristic.

Secondly, in the context of the United States stopping the export of dollars for global trade, new settlement tools will gradually fill the gap left by the dollar's exit. However, gold, as a traditional settlement tool, has many limitations: on the one hand, gold delivery faces the challenge of insufficient standardization, with different grades and purities of gold bars requiring professional appraisal; on the other hand, the transportation of physical gold depends on specialized logistics and armed escort, and cross-border circulation requires customs procedures, leading to high transaction costs. In contrast, Bitcoin, as a digital asset, perfectly solves these issues: its standard is unified (each Bitcoin is fully equivalent), delivery is instant (cross-border transfers completed within 10 minutes), and costs are low (currently $2-8). Especially in high-frequency, large-value cross-border trade scenarios, Bitcoin has already demonstrated significantly greater advantages in cost and efficiency compared to traditional payment systems like Swift (with an average cost that is half of Swift's and a speed that is 100 times faster than Swift).

The probability of another altcoin bull market is zero

As the impact of trade frictions gradually diminishes, the crypto market begins to rebound from its bottom. In the past week, market leverage demand surged: the OKX USDT lending rate once skyrocketed to 39% (a new high for the year), and the short-term investment yields across platforms generally increased by 2-3 percentage points. On the surface, the profit effect in the market is spreading from Bitcoin to altcoins. According to CoinMarketCap data, since April 8, the median increase for the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap has been 38%, surpassing Bitcoin's 28%, which means that the vast majority of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in this rebound. So, does this indicate that an altcoin bull market is imminent?

Although the corrective trend of altcoins has not yet ended, I believe the probability of a comprehensive altcoin bull market re-emerging is extremely low, for the following main reasons:

1. From past experience, when the barriers to entry gradually dissolve (anyone can issue coins) and the supply of underlying assets continues to expand, it creates dual pressure that inevitably leads to a headwind effect for capital—high-quality projects not only capture market liquidity but also create structural valuation premiums (trends towards US and Hong Kong stock markets). Taking the Nasdaq market as a reference, its top 7 leading companies not only consistently account for 50%-60% of market capitalization but also capture 30%-40% of trading volume, while enjoying a valuation premium of 20%-30% (measured by price-to-earnings ratio). Although there will be adjustments among leading companies, the characteristic of 'winner takes all' has not changed.

2. According to Coinglass data, the peak daily transaction volume of the crypto market in March 2024 and November 2024 is around $600 billion, which is comparable to the level when the bull market peaked in November 2021. This means that over the past four years, the market's maximum purchasing power has not grown. This predicament usually indicates that the phase of large-scale capital inflow has ended (the demographic dividend period is over).

Of course, even in mature markets, there are still speculative opportunities, just as the US stock market often sees speculative targets like GME and AMC while tech giants lead the way. Therefore, while BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP enter a slow bull phase, the speculation around themes like MEME and AI will continue. But one thing is certain: structural market trends will be the long-term main theme.

Macro Operation Guide

1. The abnormal fluctuations in U.S. Treasury bonds reflect that the liquidity of the dollar is facing cracks; however, the current risk level is still far from reaching the critical point of a crisis outbreak, and overall volatility remains within the range that the market can self-repair.

2. In a period of shrinking dollar circulation, Bitcoin and gold will become important value stability anchors. In the future, the dual-track storage system of 'official gold' + 'private Bitcoin' will be an important supplement for the de-dollarization of emerging markets.

3. The policy combination of 'high tariffs + weak dollar' may help enhance the international competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, but it inevitably weakens the credit foundation of the dollar. Looking back over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with the dollar index; therefore, during the dollar depreciation cycle, Bitcoin is likely to perform strongly.

4. In the recent significant fluctuations of the capital market, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns have significantly outperformed most traditional safe-haven assets, and its increase in volatility is also far lower than the VIX index, indicating that Bitcoin has shown good safe-haven properties.

Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a safe-haven asset!

From historical experience, high-quality safe-haven assets must meet two core criteria: significant positive risk premium and controllable price volatility. Over the past decade, gold has been the only asset that consistently meets these two requirements, while Bitcoin has long been excluded from safe-haven assets due to its excessive volatility in extreme market conditions (e.g., a daily swing of 37% in March 2020). However, this traditional perception is being challenged by new market data. During the market turmoil triggered by Trump's tariff policies, the performance of various assets showed significant changes.

Between April 2 and April 8, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted return rate was -0.24, which not only far exceeded the S&P's -0.98 but also surpassed gold's -0.29. This shift indicates that Bitcoin is developing a unique "crisis alpha" characteristic—although its absolute volatility remains higher than gold, its relative performance during systemic risk events has begun to surpass that of traditional safe-haven assets.

Moreover, despite the VIX index soaring to its highest point in nearly three years (60), Bitcoin's 1-month implied volatility only slightly increased, still having a substantial distance from its historical peak. At the same time, there is no clear correlation between Bitcoin's price and the implied volatility of its at-the-money options. This suggests that the market generally believes that the potential impact of a significant decline in U.S. stocks on Bitcoin is limited, and options investors have not heavily capitalized on this event to bet on volatility, breaking the previous market consensus that Bitcoin acts as a lever for U.S. stocks.

ETH may have already bottomed out!

Due to the existence of approximately 320,000 ETH in liquidation scale within the 1760-1660 range, short sellers have initiated a hunting action against large stakers, attempting to arbitrage by activating the spiral liquidation process. Whenever the coin price falls to the liquidation price, two whales with staking volumes of 64,800 ETH and 60,800 ETH always manage to add margin in a timely manner at critical moments, avoiding liquidity shocks. This has caused the coin price to get caught in a fierce battle at 1780.

Since March 24, although the ETH price has continued to decline, the open interest of bearish options in the entire network has increased by 23%. Short sellers have not only failed to take profits but have further increased their positions. In the last bear market, ETH fell from $4860 to $882, with a maximum drop of 80%. Based on this ratio, the theoretical bottom of the current ETH bear market should be $820. This is also the reason many trend-following bears believe the current decline is still far from being complete.

So, will ETH really drop to $820? The author believes it is unlikely, mainly for the following two reasons:

1. According to data from IntoTheBlock and Glassnode, although Ethereum fell 78% from its peak on June 13, 2022, more than half of the addresses were still in profit at that time, with long-term holders (investors holding for more than a year) having a profit ratio as high as 64%. Although the ETH price on March 11, 2025, is 103% higher than on June 13, 2022, the proportion of profitable addresses at this time is only 47%, and the profit ratio of long-term holders is only 34%. This abnormal divergence indicates that after sufficient turnover during the 2020-2024 cycle, the average holding cost of the ETH market has significantly risen to $2058 (Glassnode, March 2025), and most investors are currently in a state of unrealized losses, with the reluctance to sell reinforcing the diminishing selling pressure.

2. The Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary tightening policies from 2022 to 2023, rapidly raising the benchmark interest rate from 0% to 5.25% within just 12 months, leading to a severe contraction of global liquidity. This is the reason for the rapid collapse of the crypto market. However, the trend of marginal improvement in liquidity in 2025 has gradually become clear: on one hand, the Federal Reserve has begun planning to reduce the scale of quantitative tightening (with the earliest implementation in April); on the other hand, CME interest rate futures indicate that the market generally expects 2-3 rate cuts to be initiated in 2025, and the decline in actual interest rates is expected to promote the valuation recovery of risk assets.

Reducing inflation is no longer the most important thing in this cycle; the U.S. needs to formulate a higher-dimensional strategic framework to resolve the current crisis.

Powell's Perspective:

1. The Federal Reserve is accountable to the private sector and residents, so it focuses more on prices and employment.

2. In the short term, interest rate cuts may be ineffective for long-term rates, as rising inflation expectations may continue to push up long-term rates.

Trump's Perspective:

High interest rates have caused several objective problems:

1. The overvaluation of the dollar (which is detrimental to reshaping manufacturing and reversing the trend of persistent trade deficits).

2. Federal finances are under extreme pressure (with interest expenses of $1.2 trillion in 2025, potentially reaching $1.5 trillion in 2026).

3. The growth of private sector and residents' income is based on government deficit spending. Fiscal contraction and monetary tightening can only proceed one way, or else there will be an economic recession.

Summary: Simple monetary or fiscal policies can no longer solve the current difficulties. The U.S. needs a centralized government to ensure that a series of combined strategies (the Mar-a-Lago agreement) involving monetary, fiscal, diplomatic, military, and trade policies can be effectively implemented, which is why Trump demands a voice in monetary policy.

Contradiction: Although Powell may sacrifice his reputation to cooperate with Trump (to take the blame for the Federal Reserve's loss of independence and inflation rebound), Wall Street capital groups cannot tolerate a loss of monetary dominance.

The decline of the dollar hegemony is inevitable, and the United States will reshape the world currency system through Bitcoin.

In the current situation, it has become significantly more difficult for the United States to push countries like Japan, South Korea, the UK, and Germany to re-sign agreements similar to the 'Plaza Accord.' There is severe infighting in South Korean politics, and Japan has frequent changes in prime ministers; both countries tacitly adhere to a ball-kicking strategy, making it difficult for the United States to find a clear entity to apply pressure. Meanwhile, Trump's waving of tariffs reflects the gradual decline of the United States' control over its traditional ally system. If tariffs cannot achieve the same effect as the Mar-a-Lago agreement, the decline of dollar hegemony will ultimately be unavoidable. Perhaps the United States has already realized this, which is why they have placed a counterattack piece on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs!

Although it is difficult for Bitcoin to benefit from the liquidity spillover of US stocks in the short term, Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new round of paradigm growth transformation under the dual stimulation of favorable policies and macro catalysts.

First, as US crypto regulation shifts from "suppression mode" to "strategic support", Bitcoin's position in global major assets has been unprecedentedly improved. Especially after Trump announced the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, long-term capital such as sovereign wealth funds and pensions began to increase their allocation to Bitcoin. According to data disclosed in the SEC 13F file in the fourth quarter of 2024, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala purchased a Bitcoin ETF worth $437 million for the first time, the Wisconsin Pension Fund increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings from $164 million to $321 million, and the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management Company significantly increased its holdings of MSTR and COIN in the fourth quarter, expanding its Bitcoin exposure to $370 million. According to the ratio of gold to Bitcoin market value of 10:1, the theoretical allocation ratio of global sovereign wealth funds and pension funds to Bitcoin can reach 0.1%-0.2%

Secondly, under the framework of the Mar-a-Lago agreement, the overvaluation of the US dollar has become the main obstacle to resolving debt and revitalizing the manufacturing industry. In the future, the United States is very likely to reconstruct the current world trade system and financial structure by actively devaluing the US dollar. The end of the strong cycle of the US dollar will inevitably trigger capital flows to neutral currencies such as gold and Bitcoin. According to public data, from 1985 to 1987 after the Plaza Accord was signed, the US dollar depreciated by 50% and 47% against the Japanese yen and the German mark respectively, and the gold price rose from about US$300 per ounce to about US$500, an increase of about 66%. This process has led to the reallocation of trillions of dollars in assets. The current scale of US dollar assets is tens of thousands of times that of 1985, so the hedging demand brought about by the devaluation of the US dollar will be even greater.

76000 USD is likely the mid-term bottom for Bitcoin

In the past week, the White House and the Federal Reserve have turned a blind eye to the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, and neither side seems willing to back down in this 'game of chicken.' Although the expectation of a recession is likely just a negotiation tactic by Trump to apply extreme pressure, the uncertainty of policy games has further stimulated the market's risk-averse sentiment.

However, as of now, the continuous decline in U.S. stocks appears more like a deliberate effort by the higher-ups to compress valuation bubbles rather than a precursor to a crisis spiral. A typical example is that during the process of the U.S. stock market issuing $5 trillion, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, and gold have all risen sharply, which is different from the collective collapse of global markets during past dollar liquidity crises (the circulation of dollars is the heart of global liquidity).

Although the crypto market has suffered from a liquidity backlash amid the contraction in U.S. stock valuations, Bitcoin's structural resistance capacity remains good, mainly reflected in three aspects:

1. According to Bloomberg terminal data, after the global liquidity crisis in March 2020, in the extreme scenario where the Nasdaq fell more than 15% in seven single months (calculated over 30 days), the adjustment of Bitcoin this time shows a significant convergence characteristic. It achieved volatility compression of 65.8% and 50.8% compared to the historical extremes of -53.6% in March 2020 and -37.2% in June 2022, respectively.

2. Unlike the extremely pessimistic expectations generated by previous rounds of significant declines, in this drop, the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and the premium rate of Bitcoin quarterly contracts have remained stable, indicating that the will of the bullish main force has not been shaken by the decline.
3. This adjustment not only has a relatively gentle trend but has also almost never shown extreme spikes in intraday trading, indicating that the decline mainly stems from panic selling by small and medium-sized retail investors, while large whale investors continue to hold their positions.

Based on this analysis, I tend to believe that Bitcoin's current decline is merely a technical pullback after consecutive ATHs, and that the area around 76000 USD is likely to be the mid-term bottom.

Main Points:

1. Bitcoin fell after the announcement of the strategic reserve, primarily due to a correction of the market's overly high expectations, as Trump's executive order did not involve plans for direct government participation.

2. Under a neutral budget framework, asset replacement is the most operable solution for accumulating Bitcoin, but the Treasury lacks congressional authorization, leaving operational space still limited.

3. In the long term, the core value of Bitcoin's strategic reserve lies in restraining government-level sell-offs while also demonstrating a signaling effect.

4. Reducing the government deficit has entered a deep-water zone, and Trump is likely to continue pressuring the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts, with the possibility of artificially creating pressure on non-farm payrolls. Interest rate cuts have become the most likely positive factor to reverse market downturns in the short to medium term.

Operational Strategy:

1. Bitcoin fell after the announcement of strategic reserves, primarily as a correction to the market's overly high expectations, as Trump's executive order did not involve plans for direct government participation.

2. Under a neutral budget framework, asset replacement is the most operationally feasible plan for accumulating Bitcoin, but the Treasury lacks congressional authorization, leaving limited operational space.

3. In the long term, the core value of Bitcoin's strategic reserves lies in suppressing government-level sell-offs while demonstrating a ripple effect.

4. Reducing government deficits has entered a deep water zone, and Trump is likely to continue pressuring the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts, with the possibility of artificially creating pressure on non-farm payrolls. Interest rate cuts have become the most probable positive factor to reverse the market downturn in the short to medium term.