On Friday, an ancient address that had been dormant for 14 years and held 80,000 bitcoins suddenly activated, triggering a panic sell-off in the market. According to Coinbase manager Conor Grogan, these addresses may belong to an independent miner from 2011, who had accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks that year and once held 200,000 bitcoins, making him the fifth-largest whale in bitcoin history.
What makes the market most uneasy is that his holding cost was only $1.76 per coin, and at the current price of $108,000, the unrealized gains amount to 61,000 times. Any sale would inevitably have a huge impact on the market. Considering that the German government’s sale of 49,858 bitcoins in 2024 caused months of turbulence in the market (with a maximum decline of 32%), if this giant whale chooses to cash out, its potential selling pressure of 80,000 coins could create an even more powerful market tsunami.
A data study by Glassnode in 2020 shows that bitcoins that have not moved for ten years have only a 0.5% probability of re-entering market circulation, which results in addresses holding bitcoins for more than ten years (with no transaction records) usually being considered permanently lost. So, why would 'sleeping' bitcoins suddenly awaken? Currently, there are three main widely circulated versions in the market:
1. A Chinese national with the surname Deng controls 80,000 bitcoins and was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising through mining. He lost asset disposal rights during his imprisonment and was released early this year through special channels.
2. The ancient miner accidentally recovered the hard drive storing the private key.
3. The super forces driving the recent bitcoin surge are aligned with a certain giant whale. They had hoarded a large amount of low-priced chips before the pump, and this activation of bitcoin aims to test market reaction and reduce market sensitivity to significant movements, preparing for later chip distribution.
From the current situation, version three has the highest likelihood, mainly for two reasons: first, the giant whale 'accidentally' obtained 80,000 bitcoins and only transferred them to a new address without further operations, which aligns with the conventional security management behavior of large bitcoin holders; second, after the news broke, the price in the secondary bitcoin market only dropped by 1.09%, indicating that smart money showed no signs of panic selling. These two points suggest that the intention of short-term selling by the giant whale is not obvious, and the super forces did not see the sudden activation of the ancient address as an uncontrollable factor.
On July 4, U.S. President Trump officially signed the (Big and Beautiful Act), marking the implementation of a large-scale tax cut and fiscal spending plan. The passage of this act means that the Trump administration has completely abandoned the goal of fiscal tightening and has instead restarted and expanded its fiscal expansion policy from its first term. It is worth noting that compared to the $2.43 trillion deficit increase brought by the (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) during Trump’s first term, the (Big and Beautiful Act) is expected to lead to an increase in the federal budget deficit of up to $5 trillion, significantly enlarging the scale of expansion.
Although the 'Big Beautiful' Act may long-term push U.S. debt towards a cliff, in the short term, the 'Big Beautiful' Act will make the personal income tax and estate tax reductions in the (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) permanent, increase the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and for married couples by $2,000 (until 2028), and exempt taxes on tips, overtime pay, and some auto loan interest. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, with effects comparable to direct cash distribution.
In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the bank system's supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) may become another potential heavyweight benefit. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve issued a draft for public comment on the proposed revision of the SLR rules, considering lowering the requirement for large banks (eSLR) from 5% to 3.5%, and possibly excluding low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation.
According to Treasury Secretary Becerra's forecast, the adjustment of the SLR will be completed in summer (June to August), expected to release about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lower the long-term yields on U.S. Treasury bonds by 30-50 basis points.
Currently, the macro policy mix in the United States is very clear: the debt from the (Big and Beautiful Act) will be jointly undertaken by the banking system (through SLR adjustments) and the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) (mainly absorbing short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide basic liquidity support.
This policy closed loop is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and will continue to support U.S. stocks and risk assets like bitcoin to remain strong.
From a technical perspective, bitcoin is currently still in a typical main rising wave phase, with short-term market noise only causing intraday level washout fluctuations. With extreme consensus support, there is no possibility of deep adjustment for bitcoin. After a brief consolidation, prices are expected to continue the upward trend. The long-term target remains at 127,600-137,500.