Circles above 100 have no investment value!

If Circle's market share remains at 25% over the next three years, based on predictions from the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), the total market value of stablecoins will grow from $234 billion in April 2025 to $2 trillion in 2028, an increase of approximately 8.3 times. Based on this, Circle's profit in 2028 could reach $1.3 billion ($156 million × 8.3), corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18.3 times (based on a market value of $23.9 billion), but this valuation is still lower than PayPal's current price-to-earnings ratio (about 15.7 times).

However, Circle's actual profit three years from now is likely to be below $1.3 billion. On one hand, competition in the stablecoin sector is becoming increasingly fierce, which will compress its market share and profitability; on the other hand, if the long-term yield of U.S. Treasuries continues to decline, the yield on USDC collateral assets will be significantly reduced, leading to a shrinkage in its profits.