CryptoAlpha

A lot of things have happened in the market recently, and the hot spots are rotating very fast. At the same time, there is a very obvious sector switching. Today everyone is speculating on AI, and tomorrow everyone is speculating on currency swaps, splits and name changes, Yuanverse VR, new sectors, and funds are overflowing. In various places, as the status of the main line of the market is often unclear, a round of market conditions has reached its final stage.

But what is good for all of us is that the market is no longer a stagnant water, and the ups and downs of popularity bring more attention and traffic. The important thing is not the market growth. If people have expectations, then the situation will get better and better.

This article was written on February 7th.

I did a leg workout yesterday and was a little tired. I went to bed at 12 o'clock. When I woke up in the morning, I saw that Ethereum was at 1610. It was a correction. That's a good thing. Looking further down, Agix dropped to 0.42. It’s like people are in high spirits on happy occasions. Isn’t this a pullback that will pick me up? But I didn’t see it for a while and then it rose to 0.49.

In fact, I understand quite a bit about the idea that the strong will always be strong. There are some truths to it that are simple and unpretentious. I thought I understood it after reading it, but sometimes when I think about it, I gain a new understanding.

The First Law of Defi "When you don't know whose money you are making, you are often the source of income." As a trader who mainly participates in the secondary market, I believe that my income comes from other participants in this market. This understanding is correct, but it is not accurate enough.

The Spring Festival is approaching, and the crypto market is starting to have an Indian summer market. At the end of the year, the market finally issued a market red envelope. Standing at this point in time, looking back on my encryption experience this year, I believe everyone can’t help but say bad words. In the bear market for a whole year, the market fell by more than 60%. If your assets did not drop so much, it can be said that you have defeated the market.

However, I believe that more than 90% of people do not participate in investment. Going against the trend, it is really difficult for friends who purely hold coins and trade to make money. But old people in the circle will say that cyclical money may be the best money to make, because this cycle is really too obvious.

If I ask you a question now: How can ordinary people achieve financial freedom?

How would you answer?

Answer: hard work, diligence, compound interest, ability, passion, mission, luck...

Are these really important? Will you work harder than the workers on the construction site? Will you be more diligent than the delivery boy? Those small business owners who start a business are not lacking in ability and passion, but they always say that the environment is not good. Why is this?

I want to do a thought experiment to answer this question.

If you traveled back in time 20 years ago, what would you choose to do to become rich?

A few days ago, I made an appointment with a member of our community. This group member is very obsessed with blockchain and often takes his group members away. So everyone affectionately calls him Fei Ge. The original purpose was to communicate the opportunity evaluation of a DID social project. During the process, we also exchanged our respective experiences and experience summaries in the currency circle.

Fei Ge, as a senior who entered the last bull market in 2017, has a five-digit experience in Ethereum. At the same time, he is also a serial entrepreneur in the traditional mobile Internet. He successfully exited the company after raising tens of millions. After personally choosing to start a business, he also successfully raised money and sold the company.

Compared to value coins or junk coins.

Personally, I simply divide the projects in the currency circle into two categories.

The first category: memetic projects, which come with some innovations, most likely combinatorial innovations, and will spread virally after their birth. It is essentially based on Pond's propagation of noise. The ceiling is generally more obvious and the consensus often collapses with the big negative line.

The second category: fundamental projects. Calling them fundamental does not mean to praise the excellent fundamentals of this type of project, but that its fundamentals are difficult to falsify. It needs to be verified by the market, and the results are often not available in a short time.

I have been tortured very badly by the market recently. When investing, you must not only care about the fundamentals of the stock itself, but also the various policies of the Federal Reserve. The Fed's interest rate meeting is usually held at two o'clock in the evening. Many friends around me stayed up late to listen to the meeting at the end of last month. After listening to it, I immediately posted it to the group: raising interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with market expectations. , good news!

It makes people like me who didn’t stay up late listening feel very ashamed. Then yesterday, another CPI data came out, and Ethereum performed a good show of painting a door. I couldn't help but fell into deep thought. Do you need to know so much to speculate on coins? So today I went to study hard what an interest rate hike is.

I am studying behavioral finance recently and have learned a lot of knowledge, which I would like to share with you.

Let’s first talk about two concepts in cognitive psychology.

Bayes' rule: This rule believes that people will make judgments and decisions based on the "prior probability" and "posterior probability" of things under uncertainty.

Prior probability: people’s early understanding of the probability distribution of various unknown variables under conditions of uncertainty;

Posterior probability: People update the prior probability distribution after obtaining new information. It emphasizes the rational characteristics of individuals making behavioral decisions under uncertainty, that is, people will continue to learn and adjust based on the new information they obtain.

I have learned a lot of new things recently, and I also plan to systematically study the concepts that I have only superficially understood before. I will prepare basic knowledge reserves and use more skill trees to seize more money-making opportunities. This article is a summary of Rollup learning, and I also share with you the recent learning results:

Let’s first talk about the expansion battle of Ethereum. In the world of blockchain, there is a trilemma of scalability: ensuring scalability, security and decentralization at the same time.

Ethereum is the most widely used public chain, and ecosystems such as Defi, Gamefi, and NFT are booming. Also due to its ecology where a hundred flowers bloom, Ethereum, as the first public chain, was not considered to be able to accommodate such a large ecology and users at the beginning of its design. Therefore, Ethereum was criticized for being too slow in terms of TPS (transaction processing speed per second). , can only handle about 15 transactions;

Outline of this article

1. Income research and analysis

2. Income and Token Value Capture

3. Brief analysis of the track

I was thinking about a question recently. Some people say that web3 is a scam, some say that web3 is the future, and some people just want to ask: Can web3 make money? Can it make money? Or how much money can it make? I am still very curious, so I just spent some money. I searched for some data to see how much money the familiar public chains and products like web3 can make in a year, and why the market value is so high.

We also hope to find out which projects are favored by investors and the market to help and guide us in establishing an overall view of industry investment.

Recently I have begun to understand the importance of understanding the macroeconomics. It is important to review history. There is nothing new under the sun. Everyone knows this. But knowing it but not studying history is stupid. Why is studying history effective? Because human beings are the most important part of history, and human nature is the eternal truth.

Liquidity is the life of an asset. If we look at the performance of U.S. stocks in previous interest rate hikes, the performance of cryptocurrencies is almost the same.

The chart below shows the trend of Fed interest rates and the S&P 500 Index:

It can be seen that there is no positive correlation between the interest rate hike itself and the bearish U.S. stock market. Even bear markets sometimes occur during interest rate cuts, and it is important to realize that raising interest rates is just a means by the Federal Reserve to prevent the economy from overheating and triggering inflation.

#gmx

1. Brief introduction to the derivatives track

The perpetual contract market is currently the derivative with the highest crypto trading volume. Binance’s main profit comes from contract fees. The crypto contract trading volume in 21 years exceeded US$60w billion, far exceeding the spot trading volume, with a gap of nearly 3 times. At present, 15% of the spot trading volume is completed through the decentralized exchange DEX, while the permanent contract DEX trading only accounts for 2% of the overall market, which is a huge space.

Assuming that the contract transaction volume reaches 100 billion within 5 years, dex accounts for 10%, which is about 10 million transaction volume. The current overall dex contract annual transaction volume is 600 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 75~80% in 5 years.

1. Name speculation. During the wave of Internet stocks in the 1990s, many companies changed their names one after another in order to be related to the Internet. Adding .com or .net to the company name often caused fluctuations in the company's stock price. This time mask is an excellent example, as well as the previous Facebook rename to meta.

2. Opportunities on the chain. In this wave of elon’s acquisition of Twitter, the most direct thing that people think of must be Dogecoin. As a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars, the market value of Dogecoin has doubled since the 28th. But what many people may not know is that Dogechain, also known as dog chain, has increased 10 times since the 28th.

In fact, the currency circle does not necessarily have to be in a bull market to make money. Of course, I recognize that you need to be in a bull market to make big money. As for whether the sudden recovery in the market is a wave of "Indian Summer" or a "carnival", the essence of the two is actually not very different. The main reason is that the different forms of expression lead to differences in people's subjective feelings. For example, last year, as long as the zoo's market price had an animal in its name, it could increase tenfold. For example, some time ago, as long as a national team token was issued, it could double its price. I have no intention of distinguishing the market value and multiples of football and animal quotes. Today I will mainly talk about the ideas.

Recently, looking at Japanese candle chart technology, the author explained that through the appearance of candle charts, we can clearly feel the Eastern philosophy contained in candle chart technology, black and white candle lines, that is, Yin and Yang lines. It expresses market movements and coincides with the myriad phenomena of the yin and yang between heaven and earth. Looking at the candle chart is like watching Go. The black and white pieces represent life and the world.

The author uses a Tai Chi diagram to illustrate the occurrence, development, and mutual transformation of the Ox and Bear stages at different levels. Combining the development rules and life cycles of things that I learned before, I seem to have a new understanding.

1. Rewards for innovative things

Xen is very in line with the rewards for early innovative projects and narratives in the currency circle. The previous people, cult, and ana, bull market things, market liquidity and emotions will amplify such early innovative projects, giving the most rewards and dissemination.

Innovations in the bear market are relatively rare, but projects with a slight bright spot will also attract the attention of everyone in the entire circle. Where there is popularity, there will naturally be funds, and where there are funds, there will be opportunities to make money. Heat is money. I hope this formula and theorem can be engraved in my body like a conditioned reflex.