1. Rewards for innovation
Xen is very suitable for rewarding early innovative projects and narratives in the cryptocurrency circle. The previous people, cult, and ana, the bull market, market liquidity and sentiment will amplify such early innovative projects and give the most rewards and dissemination.
Innovation is rare in a bear market, but projects with a little bit of a bright spot will also attract the attention of everyone in the circle. With popularity, there will be funds, and with funds, there will be opportunities to make money. Popularity is money. I hope that such a formula and theorem can be engraved in my body like a conditioned reflex.
2. Model interpretation and correct participation
The design of XEN's model determines that the earlier you participate, the more advantages you have, because you can get the chips first. However, the design parameters have resulted in that even if the first tens of thousands of people participate, they have not yet mastered the correct gameplay, and less than 2,000 people stake for one day. The number of tokens obtained is determined by three variables: one is the staking time, one is the order of participation, and the other is the people who participate later. In fact, we cannot decide the latter two. The only thing we can choose is the number of days of staking.
Combining the development laws of things and the laws of heat fermentation and propagation, the hottest time is the 1st to 2nd day. The earlier you get the chips, the higher the inherent heat value will be. Everyone participates according to the time linearly, and there will be continuous chips coming out to dump the market. Because of the unclear state outside the market, the Bodhisattvas who like to rush to the Earth Dog based on the heat are very happy to take over.
It can be predicted that as long as the tokens are circulated, there will be a relatively high price. In the initial stage, there will be few chips released, and the price will be bought high by the Bodhisattvas with the highest tolerance.
But what is certain is that the project will return to zero in the long run and fall infinitely, because there is always selling pressure from the release of the ban. The cost of the later ones is 1/n of the first day because the lock-up time is longer. As long as the profit exceeds the gas fee, they will withdraw it to dump the market. In 10 days, the market value will automatically fall 10 times. This is the evil result of the unlimited issuance of the model. Those who participate late and those who choose the wrong number of days will basically return to zero.
3. The key to success lies in the profit-loss ratio
You should know that among the first 100,000 addresses, only about 2,000 locked their funds for one day. This was already the twelfth hour after the agreement was announced. How to price a Meme with more than hundreds of thousands of addresses was the key here. The decisive factor in whether to participate in the afternoon of the first day was the valuation of the project. This was where I did not do well at the time.
The project is so popular, but after analyzing this model, it is a product that will return to zero in the long term. The gas for staking and receiving the transfer is $20. It is very likely to lose money if you do it in batches. My judgment is that you can't do it big, otherwise you will easily lose money. But this is just my qualitative idea, but I still forgot to quantitatively judge my position and the current valuation anchor of Xen.
Looking back, there are only 2,000 players who locked their chips for one day among the first 100,000 addresses. That is, these 2,000 players have exclusive access to the initial market value of Xen. For a MEME with hundreds of thousands of addresses participating, a valuation of 1,000,000 is not high. Referring to the valuation of the previous Tugou project, even if it is 500,000, as long as you are among the first 10,000 to unlock tokens, on average, the value of your chips is also 50u, and your cost is only 5~6u.
If withdrawal and collection are included, it is less than 20u, which means that conservatively speaking, if the market value exceeds 100,000u, you will not lose money. As long as you make sure you are in the top 10,000, then combine the coin holding distribution and participating addresses in the Dune analysis to confirm that the number of people participating in the one-day address in the afternoon was just over 2,000. At this point, you can determine that this project can be batched to subscribe for new shares.
Although I just used a few accounts and made a small profit of a few hundred U at that time, I reviewed the experience of the entire project. If a small retail investor gambles on hundreds of accounts like a big investor, the risk is actually very high, because if the gas continues to be high, the cost of a single account is about 15 U. As we all know, those who continue to burn leeks will almost never get back their costs, and they will be automatically cleared after 7 days of not claiming.
If you don't calculate the profit and loss ratio and the opportunity risk, it is definitely not recommended to use many accounts to play. Of course, returning to the innovative projects in the crypto circle, when the next opportunity comes, there will be a similar thinking path. If there is another such opportunity, I hope I can do better. In the end, we have figured out many truths. What remains to be done is action and continuous optimization. Waiting for the wind to come, what this market lacks is not opportunities.
That's all, Dyor.
Author: Chad | Editor: Gemini
