光浩谈走势

From morning until now, the short-term market has been slowly rising at a high level. Currently, the short position at 81300 has only been trapped for 700 points, so there's no need to panic.
One thing to mention is that this position at 81300 in the morning, from both a technical and psychological perspective, there is no reason to go long. Even if you went long, it would only be 700 points now, which I also do not favor, and I don't want to bet on this bullish space.
Now let's arrange the specific thoughts for the future, I don't want to disappoint those loyal fans who have expectations of me!
For the short position at 81300, supplement your position reasonably around 83000 based on your own position situation. If it hasn't reached that, hold on to it, defending at 84500. If today breaks below yesterday's low of 79900, we could see 78000.

Trump's 200% tariff threat triggers market chaos, stocks drop, Bitcoin falls below $80,000
Potential consequences of Trump's tariff threats and ongoing trade conflicts
Economic impact on the US and EU
The announcement of potential tariffs adds to the existing uncertainty in the market. Investors worried about a prolonged trade war are retreating from risk assets. Significant declines in major indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reflect concerns about economic growth and international relations. The stock market is highly sensitive to such geopolitical developments, which may further exacerbate fears of a global economic slowdown, affecting investor sentiment for the coming weeks or months.

🟢 In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience, with Bitcoin and XRP leading the BTC market. Bitcoin has successfully recovered to over $83,000, but the real suspense lies with XRP. This currency has shown clear signs of recovery, bouncing back from its low of $2, indicating a strengthening upward momentum.
🟢 The main setback for XRP's price previously was the lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This legal battle, combined with delisting actions from U.S. exchanges, has left many traders uncertain about the future of this currency. However, recent reports suggest that this storm may soon pass. Sources indicate that the case is nearing its end, and the SEC is about to conclude its investigation into other digital currency platforms.

PiScan's latest data shows that the core team of Pi Network holds a significant portion of the total supply of Pi Coin (PI), raising questions about the decentralization of the project. Reports indicate that the core team controls approximately 62.8 billion PI, distributed across six wallets, with about 10,000 wallets not associated with the team holding 20 billion PI. In total, there are 82.8 billion PI in the network, which constitutes a large part of the fixed supply of 100 billion PI. Although this concentration may have been necessary in the early stages of network development, it has also raised significant concerns about the future decentralization of the project. Limited PI distribution could affect the resilience of the network and the community's trust in its decentralized nature. In addition to token distribution, Pi Network's infrastructure also faces challenges regarding centralization. Reports indicate that the network operates a limited number of nodes and validation mechanisms. The Pi core team operates three validation nodes, validator1, validator2, and validator3, a structure similar to that of the Stellar Development Foundation, which has nodes like SDF1, SDF2, and SDF3. To better understand, Layer 1 networks like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) pride themselves on having many more nodes, enhancing their decentralization and security. Bitcoin operates over 21,000 nodes, while Ethereum has over 6,600 nodes. The limited number of nodes and validators in PI means that control of the network is concentrated in the hands of a few entities, making it more centralized than its established peers. Integrating AI into KYC and privacy issues In the 2025 privacy policy update, Pi Network introduced artificial intelligence (AI) into its Know Your Customer (KYC) process to enhance efficiency and security. The updated policy states: We use ChatGPT as a reliable AI partner to automatically verify identities and enhance security measures. By using our KYC services, users agree to the use of ChatGPT and other AI providers that may be deployed in the future as part of our KYC process. Although AI can streamline the identity verification process and reduce manual errors, it also raises concerns about data privacy and potential misuse of personal information. The community continues to emphasize the technical difficulties during the mainnet migration process, with many expressing disappointment over the slow and complicated transfer of their funds to the mainnet. Despite the extended KYC and migration deadlines, some users still report issues, leading to dissatisfaction within the community. Additionally, the extended lock-up period and restrictions on immediate access to tokens have led some users to consider selling their accounts. This dissatisfaction has contributed to a decline in the visibility of Pi Network since the mainnet launch on February 20. To address these challenges, Pi Network has repeatedly extended the deadlines for KYC verification and mainnet migration, with the latest extension set to end at 8:00 AM UTC on March 14, 2025. This extension aims to provide users with additional time to complete the verification and migration processes, ensuring the integrity and fairness of the ecosystem. In the past 24 hours, the original token of Pi has risen by 19.71%, with the current trading price at $1.62. This represents a 45.66% increase from its historical high of $2.98.

Approval rate of altcoin ETFs
If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves an altcoin ETF in the future, the following cryptocurrencies have a relatively high probability:
1. Ethereum (ETH) – Most likely
Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin, with high liquidity and market maturity.
Multiple institutions have applied for Ethereum spot ETFs (such as BlackRock, Grayscale, etc.), and the market generally expects the highest possibility of approval.
The SEC has approved Ethereum futures ETFs, meaning the threshold for its spot ETF approval is lower than that of other altcoins.

Bitcoin's intraday market continues yesterday's consolidation, with evening prices testing upward pressure around the 84,000 line. It has currently retraced to around the 80,000 mark. The support at the 80,000 line has been temporarily broken, and there has been a decent short-term rebound recently. Therefore, although the market is leaning downward, do not blindly short before breaking the level.

On the short-term hourly chart, the wedge range is continuously compressing, with the high slowly descending. The recent few candlesticks show a trend of oscillating downward, with prices fluctuating between 80,000 and 83,000 without forming a clear breakthrough. The MACD on the 4-hour level is in negative territory, and the fast and slow lines show a death cross, indicating significant short-term downward pressure. The MACD on the 1-hour level continues to weaken below the zero line, and no clear reversal signal has emerged. The RSI on the 4-hour level is around 40, in a neutral but weak area. The RSI on the 1-hour level hovers around 35, close to the oversold zone, but has not formed a divergence. The price on the 4-hour level operates below EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120, with moving averages showing a bearish arrangement, suppressing price rebounds. The price on the 1-hour level briefly crossed above EMA7 but fell back again, showing clear short-term moving average pressure. The overall trend remains in wedge range adjustment; it is recommended to focus on key support and resistance levels for high shorts, with low longs as a supplement.

Bitcoin's support holds at $83,500, and a rebound could push Bitcoin to $100,000.
A drop below $83,500 would represent a deeper correction.
Support at $83,500 supports Bitcoin: What is the next step for 2025?
Currently being tested is Bitcoin's key support price at $83,500. At this moment, this digital cryptocurrency could be approaching a watershed moment. Analysis in recent weeks has indicated that Bitcoin has consistently maintained most of its price fluctuations within a range, firmly holding within a parallel channel on its 12-hour chart.