Approval rate of altcoin ETFs
If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves an altcoin ETF in the future, the following cryptocurrencies have a relatively high probability:
1. Ethereum (ETH) – Most likely
Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin, with high liquidity and market maturity.
Multiple institutions have applied for Ethereum spot ETFs (such as BlackRock, Grayscale, etc.), and the market generally expects the highest possibility of approval.
The SEC has approved Ethereum futures ETFs, meaning the threshold for its spot ETF approval is lower than that of other altcoins.
2. Litecoin (LTC) – Lower probability
As the 'silver to Bitcoin', Litecoin has a long market history and has certain applications in the payment field.
However, compared to Ethereum, Litecoin has a smaller market size and lacks hot applications like DeFi and NFTs, so the SEC may not prioritize it.
3. Ripple (XRP) – Regulatory obstacles exist
XRP has certain applications in cross-border payments and has a high market capitalization.
However, the legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple Labs has not been fully resolved, which lowers the probability of its ETF approval.
4. Solana (SOL) – Some hope
Solana is one of the strongest competitors to Ethereum, growing rapidly in the NFT and DeFi fields.
However, Solana's level of decentralization, stability, and historical association with the FTX collapse may affect the SEC's decision.
5. Meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) – Extremely low probability
Although Dogecoin has high market recognition and is pushed by supporters like Elon Musk, it is highly speculative and lacks practical application support.
The SEC is more likely to prioritize tokens with stronger functionality and a more stable ecosystem.
Conclusion
If the SEC is to approve an altcoin ETF in the near future, Ethereum (ETH) is most likely to be the first altcoin ETF approved, while Solana (SOL) may also have some opportunities in the future. The probability of ETF approval for other altcoins (such as LTC, XRP, DOGE) in the short term is low.
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