过眼云烟

BTC has once again entered a boring consolidation zone and it likely won't end that quickly.
After rising to 745, it consolidated for 7 days the first time, then for 14 days at 85, and after reaching 100,000, it has already consolidated for 9 days. This time, the consolidation above 100,000 is somewhat different from the previous two.
This time, the main forces did not slowly inject funds like before. Since many retail investors are reluctant to sell, they are quietly cashing out.
No matter how the main forces perform their solo act, the fundamentals remain unchanged. As long as it is the same as the previous two times, regardless of how it consolidates later, as long as the daily closing price does not fall far below 102,700, the likelihood of Bitcoin returning below 100,000 in the short term is low.
Considering the capital outflow, at the current price above 102,200, my personal view is bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term.
Bitcoin’s 1-hour and 4-hour charts have no significant trends. In the short term, there are only two short selling prices: 104,460 and 105,600.
On the weekly chart, there are only two strong resistance levels at 106,500 and 108,300, which are also the most suitable short selling reference prices below 110,000.
Generally, Bitcoin doesn’t fluctuate much over the weekend. If it rises first, short at 104,460 with an 800-point stop loss.
If it goes down first, the nearer support is at 102,200, and the further one is around 101,100. If it drops to that price, it can quickly recover, and if it retests, it can be a buying opportunity. If it breaks down, it’s better to exit and observe first.
ETH has broken through the 4-hour trend line, and I don't recommend going long near 2,500. There is a very clear support level in the 1-hour structure around 2,411 ± 5 dollars. If Bitcoin drops first, you can go long on Ethereum. Whether it can hold for the long term is uncertain unless it breaks out with volume above 2,646. Place a stop loss below 2,400, with support below around 2,363.
I previously mentioned SOL's erratic behavior, and I made two trades which were frustrating. Since it has created a low point at 163, the only support below is at 160.77 and 155. If it rises along with Bitcoin, let’s see how Bitcoin performs at 174 and 178. I’m not sure how it will react at these two prices.

Make up a structural diagram of ETH.
Last night, after Dogecoin hit my stop loss, I entered on the right side, but the position is not very ideal.
As long as Dogecoin stays above 2581 on the 4-hour chart today and breaks above 2608 on the 1-hour chart, there is a possibility of a reversal. If it creates a higher high than 2646, it further confirms that Dogecoin has a chance to reach 2700.
SOL is a piece of junk; after hitting my stop loss, it keeps bouncing up and down. The short-term pressure today is around 171.8, and I don't plan to trade it anymore; it seems weak.
The pressure around BTC 104700 corresponds to Dogecoin's 2381. As long as Dogecoin doesn't break below the trend line on the 4-hour chart, the current low point is too high, and the outlook is still mainly upward.

BTC's current structure can still be used for a while, so trading still focuses on the structure.
The major focus for BTC is based on the 4-hour chart, as long as it doesn't fall below the blue trendline, we can still expect it to rise towards the upper end of the red trendline in the middle.
BTC's order at 1014xx was almost triggered, while ETH and SOL were filled, so BTC's long position has been canceled.
I have previously mentioned the difference between the Asian and American markets. As long as around 8 or 9 AM, there is an initial rise followed by a sustained decline with several 15-minute candles without a significant rebound, it generally continues to decline during the day. The American market is much more complex than the Asian market, but between 4 PM to 6 PM, regardless of whether it rises or falls, it won't deceive.
Brothers, pay attention, if BTC falls below the blue trendline, and there is no significant rebound or it cannot pull back up, then you can short on the right side, and if it falls below 100600, just hold on. If there is a volume rebound at this position, just protect the cost of the short position and narrow the stop-loss to pursue the long.

The BTC structure has formed. If tonight's CPI is not negative, then the market has not yet reached a reversal.
When trading, the most important factor is the structure, followed by various indicators.
In an upward trend, on the 4-hour or daily chart, if the highs are rising and the lows are falling, this represents an opening reversal trumpet pattern. However, it is only a higher probability and should not be considered absolute.
Currently, after breaking through the top resistance line of 956, Bitcoin has found support after a decline, further confirming that the resistance line has turned into support.
If Bitcoin does not break the previous low during the day, the bullish trend after breaking 100,000 has not been broken temporarily. In other words, if the 4-hour close is below approximately 101,200, those who shorted between 99,000 and 100,000 may have a chance to recover losses.
Because the extreme support for this small segment of the market is 991.
ETH has formed a trumpet pattern that bears particularly like in the short term, with highs rising and lows falling.
As long as the 4-hour ETH does not drop below 2435, it may further test the short-term resistance at 2500.
If Bitcoin creates a lower low without breaking 100,000, Ethereum can be bought in the range of 2375 plus or minus 6 dollars.
Due to the large monthly candle of Bitcoin, this major trend is directly targeting the resistance at 108,200. Therefore, without a significant negative environment, holding short positions is not recommended.
If there is no interest rate cut after the June crisis, it will not be too late to consider mid-term shorts then.
SOL is also in an opening trumpet pattern, but it has been relatively strong recently. Shorting in the short term can only be quick in and out, as transaction fees are eating into profits.
The testing mentioned previously at 169 has occurred, with fluctuations. If it can return and not break the previous low during the day, it may be worth trying a small long position. If it breaks the previous low by 2 dollars, consider stopping losses.

BTC has once again entered a market that even dogs would shake their heads at.
This morning, it surged to 105,000 with a lack of volume, simply to trigger stop losses above 104,000 or scare off indecisive short sellers, masking the motive of the main force secretly selling off some chips. In plain terms, it's a capital outflow, and those in the know can verify the authenticity on-chain.
Switching to the monthly settlement chart, there is still a bit of liquidity between 105,000 and 107,000, but none above that.
For those who shorted above 104,000, the contract positions generally show a red exclamation mark, indicating that there are relatively few opposing positions, and there are fewer people going long above 102,000, resulting in a lack of liquidity, hence the double top divergence for Bitcoin on the 1-hour chart.
However, due to the very large liquidity below 100,000, most holders are waiting for Bitcoin to continue rising, firmly refusing to liquidate.
Therefore, the current market of Bitcoin is actually a psychological battle between people; without a large sell-off, this market is one that even dogs would shake their heads at.
On the ETH spot side, in the past couple of days, many have been selling thousands, but the market hasn't experienced a significant drop, proving that the market has entered a highly greedy situation, with everyone shouting: Ethereum, why don't you rally? If you don't rally, how can I make money?
The trading volume is even higher than Bitcoin, and everyone is waiting for Ethereum to rise to 2,800.
As long as Bitcoin's closing price is below 102,200 for more than 4 hours and does not rise above that, the upward momentum will temporarily cease.
Currently, ETH is still extremely greedy; we need to see if it can close above 2,500 on the 4-hour chart and stabilize. If the daily close is below 2,500, the market will continue to test the support below 2,400.
SOL rises quickly and falls quickly as well; if it closes below 172 on the 4-hour chart and fails to rise above that, it will test the support levels of 168 and 161 again.

As long as the holding amount is not concentrated in more than 90% in a few addresses and the project team, like the volatile cryptocurrencies, all financial stocks and currencies can be analyzed and traded based on the price channel structure.
Advantages of the price channel: 1. It does not rely on traditional lagging moving averages, MACD, and other indicators.
2. It has clear price point references for overbought and oversold boundary points, combined with horizontal support and resistance levels. The price channel uses the central axis as the boundary, with the upper and lower lines representing overbought and oversold boundary lines respectively.
Figure 1 shows the declining structure of BTC11w, currently the big coin is still a step away from the serious overbought point of 995~10w.
Figure 2 shows the 4-hour rising price channel after the big coin broke through 9w; I'm not a backseat driver, I previously shared the structure of the big coin.
Can we still short now? Can the big coin still rise?
Be patient, do not trade until the target point is reached, and cultivate this habit.
After the breakout at 983, it almost reached 995, with 983 being a very short-term support for the day. The support below is at 973, 956.
If the big coin spikes to 995~10w tonight, a short opportunity can be taken with a stop loss within 1000 points. If it stays above 10w for an hour, it will completely enter a strong phase, with the next target being 102800.
It is worth noting that the big coin's daily line has already shown a top divergence, and with the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this month as expected, it should rise; from 935 to below 10w, there is also a rise of over 6K points. Shorting between 9w and 10w is fine as long as you are willing to take a loss.
Additionally, the trash Ethereum is purely a toy that Vitalik has grown tired of; it's rubbish, and I won't accept rebuttals.

Bitcoin has broken below the lower trendline on the 4-hour chart. If you're looking to buy the dip, please wait a moment.
Still observing around 935 and 928 for any volume signs of stopping the decline; otherwise, we can only speculate within the 915–922 range.
Only if Bitcoin recovers to 951 on the 4-hour chart can we consider entering long positions on the right side.
If it can't even rebound to 95, you might try shorting on the right side, with a stop loss of 500 points being sufficient.
The top divergence on the 4-hour chart has completed, and the MACD fast line has entered a stage of bearish control below the 0 axis.
I've already exited my longs around 945 because if there’s a downward trend in the Asian session this morning, there are usually various false signals throughout the day. Only when a significant bearish candle with high volume appears in the Asian session can we consider buying the dip.
The U.S. session generally sees a volume increase and rise in the first half of the night, followed by a decline in the latter half.
It's uncertain if SOL can hold around 141.
That's the current market situation; we can only take it one step at a time.

Are there still people questioning whether I'm bullish between 935 and 928?
Why can it rise with a 4-hour bearish divergence and a 12-hour death cross?
Can we still short?
96 has arrived, just one step away from 964.
For those looking to short, wait for 2 or 3 more 4-hour candles; if Bitcoin doesn't drop below 95, I estimate there will be another upward spike.
Wait to short around 965, with a stop loss at 973.
As long as Bitcoin stabilizes above 962 on the 4-hour chart, hold off on shorting and wait at 983.
That's all for now.

I don't know if anyone can understand the current structure of BTC. If you don't understand, don't ask those eternal profit masters; instead, search for various candlestick flag patterns using AI. After looking at them, at least you can learn something.
The triangular flag pattern in an uptrend is generally regarded as bullish, and the closer it gets to the tip of the triangle, the more the trading volume shrinks.
At this point, the profits for bears are gradually decreasing because the top price remains unchanged while the bottom rises.
Therefore, the risk of shorting is much greater than going long, and it's not worth it.
If the current main coin has a chance to drop near 935, go long, and set a stop loss below 93, because a breakdown of the lower boundary of the triangle could slowly form a bearish trend. In this triangular pattern, the probability of a decline is low.
If the main coin closes above 952 on the 4-hour chart, the probability of breaking upward through the triangle increases significantly, and the bulls will start to exert force.
Resistance above is at 964, 973, and 982.

Brothers, don't panic yet.
Tomorrow morning, the weekly closing will be in, and BTC has had three consecutive weeks of large bullish candlesticks, so it won't calm down that quickly. If tomorrow's weekly close is above 943, it will continue to fluctuate upwards.
Recently, it hasn't even broken below 935 with a solid drop, so there hasn't been a trend to short.
ETH is likely to close above 1750 tomorrow morning, which is a rebound point from the previous weekly decline. If there's a chance to return to around 1744, 1710 in the short term, consider making a small stop-loss long. The last support below is at 1660. Above that, it will go to 1905, 1957.
The second coin's market peaked and then quickly dropped, but it is hovering around 1800, which signals that the main force is digesting the sell orders.
If SOL closes above 147.4 tomorrow morning, the next step will slowly retest 160.
Everyone should pay attention to the weekly K-line; consecutive bearish or bullish candles will lead to rapid increases or decreases because the resistance in between is much smaller.
Only when there's a continuation in the process of rising or falling, such as a bearish candle appearing during a rise or a bullish candle during a fall, can it become resistance or support afterward.
For example, the 962-995 range of the BTC weekly is a continuation during the decline, the area with the densest chips, and this has become an important resistance zone.
When others have broken even, do you think they will continue to hold?
Without further confirmation of interest rate cuts, there won't be so much capital coming in to push the market.
Alright, that’s it, just my personal opinion. Everyone should just watch the changes quietly, don't create resistance orders for a few hundred points of profit on BTC; in and out quickly will only increase your transaction fees, which is equivalent to giving money to exchanges and those who earn continuously from your rebates.

Taking advantage of the weekend, I would like to share my current views on BTC.
Introduction: Currently, there is no major bearish trend or conditions in the price action.
View 1: The bottom of this bull market is between 15k and 110k on the Fibonacci. Only if the weekly close falls below 875 can you subjectively think that Bitcoin might return below 80k.
View 2: Be cautious of the daily chart in the past few days showing volume but small real bodies of bullish candles, which can be compared to the several bullish daily candles after the strong breakout at 73k.
When can one short?
You can take a look at the weekly chart; from 110k down to 78k, there is only one bullish candle, which closed around 962 before a sharp drop. This is a continuation of the downtrend, and the others are all bearish weekly candles with real bodies. Therefore, for those who want to short, pay close attention to whether a large bearish daily candle appears around 965.
Combining the Fibonacci from this drop's bottom of 745 to 110k, 965 is 0.382, and there will definitely be significant market movement here.
If a large volume bearish daily candle appears, only then will there be conditions for a short trend, and if the daily closing price is below 922, short the rebound. There is only one support below, which is 887, because the area between 88 and 922 is a vacuum zone.
If a daily candle with large volume shows a very small bearish or bullish real body, don't short it; instead, be a steadfast bull. The price will go up to 983 or 995. Can you withstand a short position without a stop loss?
View 3: If the weekly close is above 965, Bitcoin will oscillate upwards to 100k. Why? Because the weekly candles from above 100k down to 962 are also consecutive bearish candles, a vacuum zone.
View 4: If Bitcoin just rises directly from 745 to above 100k, even breaking 110k, and the weekly MACD shows a top divergence, at that point, there is no reason to remain bullish; you must escape regardless.
View 5: Short-term operation. If Bitcoin oscillates in a small range over the next couple of days, stay out and avoid frequent trading; patiently wait for opportunities. If it continues to oscillate upwards, place a short at 965 with a stop loss at 973. If it breaks below 95, continue holding, and observe its movement around 922. Only if it breaks below 922 on the 4-hour chart can you continue holding.
Why will it rise despite the 4-hour top divergence? Because this is a bullish trend on the daily chart. Refer to the 4-hour chart at 825, where it oscillated to 88 instead of falling. After all, the major players in Bitcoin are greedy and there are no significant sell orders.

Can't find the market direction? Don't know how to start? Come take a look. Free analysis of BTC, ETH, and SOL.
First conclusion: You can boldly trust Fibonacci.
1. Last night, Bitcoin's short position at 86777 was missed by $300; I went to bed too early and didn't keep an eye on the market, what a pity.
Using the large range of 887～744 to draw Fibonacci, why did it rebound around 832? Why did it show a bearish candle around 853?
You might want to look into 0.236 and 0.382.
How is Bitcoin moving now? As long as it breaks below 832 on the 4-hour chart, the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 816 has already been tested 3 times; I think it can be used once more.
What if it breaks below? There's no reason not to take a chance at 0.618's 799, right?
Conclusion: If it doesn't go up to 853 this evening, go short with a target of 816. If it breaks below 832 on the 4-hour chart, you can short, and for a conservative strategy, go long at 816 with targets of 852, 867, and 885. A stop loss of 500 points is enough.
2. For ETH, using 1384～2104 to draw Fibonacci, it's clear that the 0.618 level at 1660 is a significant resistance for Ethereum, not something that can be surpassed in just two or three tries.
If it drops below 0.786 at 1539 on the 4-hour chart, there are two supports below: 1500 and 1482. For those still holding short positions above 1600, consider taking profit or reducing positions at 1482.
Only if it breaks through on the 4-hour chart, or has a volume breakout on the 15-minute chart at 1660, can we see 1744 and 1829.
3. For SOL's Fibonacci range, it's 178～95. If it drops below 0.618 at 127.1 on the 4-hour chart, there is only one major support at 113 below.
It should not reach that point in the short term; it may happen next month due to significant inflation issues in the U.S.
Below supports are at 122.4 and 119.2; if you want to go long, a conservative strategy could be to set a buy order at 119.2. You can also place orders in batches at these two levels, with a stop loss if it drops below 119.
SOL can only see 146 if it breaks through 136.5.
That's all for now; you can draw Fibonacci based on the ranges I mentioned and ponder it yourself. Drawing Fibonacci on Binance is not very convenient, but as long as you understand it, that's fine.
Alright, that's all for now.

Overview of BTC after meals.
Key Point 1: The main force of Bitcoin has been slowly injecting funds recently, and the market is steadily rising.
The bullish trend of the KDJ and RSI on the 4-hour and 8-hour charts is slightly stronger than the bearish trend, with a KDJ golden cross on the 4-hour chart, but there is a top divergence on the 4-hour chart, and the volume did not keep up, but we are still waiting for a new high.
The consensus on the bottom of the previous high of 887 is in the 862–868 range, so if BTC closes above 852 on the 4-hour chart this evening, there is a high probability of a push upward later at night. Thus, the top divergence on the 4-hour chart is established, and one can consider a short position.
There are only a little over a thousand points from 852 to 868, at most reaching 885, which is 3000 points. If it goes down from 868, at least 825 is expected, which is 4000 points.
Whether to take the risk depends on the individual; if you have a long position below 80,000, it is recommended to reduce the position when it reaches this level. Whether to short also depends on personal choice.
The prerequisite is a 4-hour closing price above 852; if it hits 857 and drops directly, we will observe whether it will stop falling at 846. Short positions can still be set in the 863–868 range, with a stop-loss at 872.
Key Point 2: Ethereum is strengthening, but the volume and price on the 4-hour chart are average. If Bitcoin tests 866, it is not recommended to short below 1700 for Ethereum.
Due to a large amount of chips in the 1750–1816 range previously, from a time structure perspective, there is a higher likelihood that Ethereum is experiencing a bull trap.
It is more appropriate to short in the 1729–1750 range, with a stop-loss below 1 point. Target 1 is to look at 1669, and Target 2 is around 1500.
According to past conventions, if SOL is generally stronger than Bitcoin, it usually indicates trouble. If Bitcoin is strong and SOL does not follow suit and is weak, it indicates that the whales are withdrawing funds.
Key Point 3: The weak rebound in the US stock market is due to investors and institutions being cautious due to tariffs, and they have already seen that the US economy is accelerating into recession, so they are unwilling to actively participate in the US stock market's capital pool. With such a severe drop, it is impossible for the US stock market to rebound sharply; if this happens, the long-term top divergence will be established, and the bull market will be completely over.
Key Point 4: Beware of Trump not doing personnel matters. Friends with the ability can keep an eye on the financial movements of the Trump family. Last time, they sold Ethereum before the news, shorting the market to harvest retail investors.
Alright, that's all for now.

The US stock market and BTC have already been messed up by Trump, and no one knows what trick he will pull next.
Additionally, although his family has sold ETH, they have harvested countless dollars from options; even if a businessman becomes a leader, he cannot forget that everyone is just common grass that can be harvested.
On the chart, the BTC 4-hour bearish candle from 835 to 745 has considerable volume. However, looking at the several 4-hour candles from 745 to the market close at 8 PM, the combined volume and price are much larger than the big bearish candle, which is worth noting. The increase and the body ultimately did not exceed 825, proving that someone is applying selling pressure or suppressing the price.
On the other hand, after 835, the trend shows a divergence in volume and price on the 4-hour chart. If the big coin closes above 826 on the 4-hour chart, even if it pulls back, if it can still recover, there is a chance to see 852. If it cannot recover, first look at 808, and if that breaks, then look at 772.
If the 4-hour close is above 826, exit and a stop loss of 500 points is sufficient.
Additionally, everyone can set MA dates at 50, 100, and 200, which is very helpful for judging support, resistance, and major trends.

BTC market analysis on the afternoon of April 9.
If we look at the daily candlestick chart from the previous day, the trading volume at 744 is more than double that of the previous candlestick, but the bullish candlestick body is less than a third of the previous candlestick's body. From 812, there has been an accelerated decline; can you see it?
Supply dominates the market; isn't going long against the trend?
Why be a stubborn bull? The bears can go with the market trend in a bull market.
After all, the highest point and the closing price of the daily candlestick are both decreasing. There’s no reason to shout 'bull market' just because it rises.
Just like last year's so-called 60k strong bottom, to 52k strong bottom, and finally to 48k; how many people lost all their money?
The issue of tariffs is much bigger than you think; surging prices and rents, tightening U.S. consumption, and the result is clear: the landlord's house has no surplus grain left. Where will so many dollars come from to support the U.S. stock market and BTC?
How long did MicroStrategy's bottom support last? It ran away in less than two days.
When supply dominates the market, the main force must eat up most of the sell orders to support the bottom, right? What if the main force stops playing? Just like yesterday’s daily candlestick.
Even the daily candlestick is hammering down; I don’t see any so-called reversal from the market.
On the weekly chart, last year there was a continuous three-week surge from 69k with large bodies, proving that the demand and liquidity here are very strong. From a timing perspective, it’s possible to raid 65k to 70k, especially since the CPI caused by tariffs won't be good.
In a situation where the weekly chart has not even touched the average for several weeks, could it go down to test the lower boundary of the weekly chart? It depends on whether the Federal Reserve will loosen its stance on interest rate cuts.
From the current market situation, if the support at 744 cannot withstand the selling pressure, or if the U.S. stock market's real price falls below the previous low, the support below is at 737, 716, and 69k.
If BTC wants to return to 84k, the prerequisite is that the daily closing price is above 80k.
Why is Ethereum so worthless? Because the BTC/ETH exchange rate keeps breaking new lows.
As for SOL, my previous view remains: it's not too late to enter around 87 or 81.

Zhang Liangying: Finally waiting for you, it's good that I didn't give up.
Why do some people always want to trade frequently and come here empty-handed?
The so-called KOLs who encourage you to do this are only after the transaction fees generated by your frequent trading; the essence of rebates is just giving money to others.
The trading fees on Binance are like the rake taken in a card game; there is no right or wrong about whether it should be or not. When you trade or play cards here, the fees taken are essentially neutral.
Rebates are originally your own money, a part of what you earn, the rest is given to others. Whether it's good or not depends on the individual; anyway, my view is that even if I can't get it, I won't give money to others because I'm not a saint.
Back to the topic, how do we view the current BTC market?
Due to tariffs, it won't end simply for a long time. Prices in the U.S. will soar to historical highs, and they will have to bear the pain themselves. The price increase has led to the depreciation of the dollar, meaning more money is needed for expenses. When income doesn't rise while everything else skyrockets, all capitalists and traders can only sell their financial assets to acquire more dollars, as the dollar is fundamental and essentially the last safe haven.
BTC, with a daily closing price of 78390, has directly dropped below 79. The KDJ and RSI have not yet reached daily-level oversold, and there hasn't been a huge volume spike, proving that human nature is greedy; in the face of a bearish trend, they still firmly believe that selling now equals admitting they haven't lost yet.
I mentioned before that a support level can only be used a maximum of four times. How many people listened?
BTC support 1, 757, support 2, 737, support 3, 715, extreme support 691.
Resistance 1, 80,000, resistance 2, 823, whether the short-term can go up again depends on the U.S. stock market.
ETH, I previously advised against going long; how many people have been liquidated? Does looking at support levels help?
SOL's daily closing price has fallen below 110; it's not time to bottom-fish yet.
Resistance 1, 110, resistance 2, 116, resistance 3, 122, resistance 4, 130.5.
Support 1, 99.5, support 2, 93, support 3, 87, support 4, 81.5.
For spot trading, if it reaches around 87 or 82, buy in batches to maximize cost-effectiveness. If the weekly close is below 80, we'll see if we need to liquidate after an intraday rebound.

Do you think AUCTION is just a copy of TRB?
Wrong, this method of exploiting investors is exactly like the HIGH from the middle of last year.
You think it has hit bottom, but these altcoins have no bottom at all.
Whether going long or short, funding fees and upward spikes can completely wipe you out.
Money outside of your understanding is hard to earn, no matter how crazy these altcoins get, just pretend you didn’t see it.😅
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a narrow range, and there’s not much to analyze.
Bitcoin upper boundary 851, 865, lower boundary 832, 816, 802, above 80,000.
Ethereum upper boundary 2070, 2100, lower boundary 1930, 1870, 1841.
SOL upper boundary 136, 141, lower boundary 125, 121, currently bouncing around 130.5 with some strengthening trend, but the direction is still unclear, everyone is waiting for signals from Bitcoin.

Currently, BTC's rise from 812 is completely a bullish impulse wave in the 4-hour continuous upward structure, and it is not that Bitcoin is particularly strong.
A strong performance during a wave of upward movement is characterized by major players absorbing sell orders, which is reflected by the appearance of bearish candles, but bullish engulfing occurs, and the bearish candles have long lower shadows.
The current trend is very likely to be seizing the liquidity at the bottom of this bullish impulse wave, and due to the pressure from the Vegas channel in the 4-hour timeframe, a rebound to 852 and 865 are both good opportunities to short. In the evening, when it reaches 852, observe how the K-line behaves; if it goes up and then comes down, repeating this, and if 5 or 6 15-minute K-lines appear, it indicates a high probability that it will touch 865.
If it falls after reaching 852 and does not rebound, it is more likely to test around 818, in order to seize the liquidity between 812 and 818.
Major resistance does not mean that after one test it will drop sharply; at least two tests are required.
Ethereum is under pressure from the 2-hour Vegas channel, and whether the support at 1956 can hold for two tests remains to be seen, mainly depending on whether Bitcoin breaks below 837.
In conclusion, while monitoring the market, observe how Bitcoin behaves near 852; if placing orders, short near 868 with a narrow stop loss.
If placing long orders, consider going long around 818, and set up a Binance alert; there is a price alarm on the futures interface, and you can keep an eye on it when it approaches around 82.
For Ethereum, I am more inclined to see a retracement to 1922 and 1870, and just follow Bitcoin.

BTC Evening Market Analysis.
12-hour and daily MACD show a bottom divergence, but in terms of volume and price on the 12-hour chart, the trading volume has increased while the entity has become smaller. Following this, the 12-hour bearish candle at 843 shows low trading volume but engulfs the high-volume bullish candle, indicating a higher probability of the uptrend ending, with sellers dominating the market and the bulls and bears reaching a consensus at a high level.
Regardless of whether it's a bottom divergence or a top divergence, the signal to determine the end is when the fast line DIF crosses the zero axis, starting a new market trend.
If there is an increase after a decline that crosses the zero axis and then drops to a new low, but the MACD does not make a new low, this is not called divergence.
Currently, Bitcoin should still have a chance to test 84 again; regardless of any favorable CPI, if it cannot stabilize and break through 84 again, the bear hunt will commence.
On the short term, the 80,000 support has actually been tested twice, with the 79,000 drop being a false breakdown that has recovered and can be used again.
If Bitcoin cannot surpass 828–832 after rebounding from the recent 815 entity, those who bought the dip should exit.
Evening trading positions can be avoided, but a light long position at 80200 is suggested, with a stop loss at 79700 if it drops below 80,000.
If it goes up first, observe how the K-line behaves at 84; if it spikes, we can only expect to see 851 in the short term. A small short position between 851–856 with a tight stop loss is also possible.
If tomorrow's daily closing price is below 816, forming a hammer bearish candle, it increases the probability of the downtrend continuing, so long positions need to be cautious.