March 30 BTC market analysis.
The last time deepseek caused a rout in the US stock market, this time a breakthrough in lithography machines came like Lü Bu charging with a mighty blow; can the US stock market withstand Lü Bu's sweeping attack tomorrow, Monday? Or will it be a case of much noise but little rain?!
The United States has set up numerous obstacles, whether tariffs or technology blockades, yet it has failed to stop the opponent's rapid progress.
Currently, gold is surging, and the mainstream thought in the financial market is gradually shifting from BTC as a safe-haven asset to gold, leading to significant selling pressure on Bitcoin. Don't be fooled by large holders buying, as more institutional giants are focusing on gold.
April's tariffs and other macroeconomic data will further stimulate the Federal Reserve's nerves to delay interest rate cuts, and the trend is likely to repeat last year's pattern where Bitcoin consolidated for half a year after hitting 7.3.
On Friday, after a stop-loss at 851 for going long, it plummeted all the way down, ultimately seizing the liquidity perspective from the previous 816 range, but unfortunately, the previous viewpoint could not be maintained.
Ethereum has directly pierced through 1800, and whether 1750 can hold is now questionable.
If tomorrow, US stocks decline due to the breakthrough of domestic lithography machines causing pre-market drops in tech stocks like Nvidia, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to drop increases.
Technically, multiple attempts failed to break through 832 during the day on Sunday. If tomorrow's closing price is above 832, there is hope for further rebound to 846-852, which is also a short-selling range, as the US stock market may experience further panic due to the decline in technology stocks.
Previously, I overlooked a fundamental fact: a support point can be used at most four times, like a spring effect. The support at 856 has been used three times, and the rebound height is gradually decreasing. The fourth time was expected to hold the rebound, but it resulted in a direct waterfall.
If Bitcoin rebounds but fails to break through and stabilize above 85, the probability of 80k holding is low, as it has already been tested three times; after all, the highs are decreasing, and only by compressing the spring down can it rebound higher.
Bitcoin is set up for short-selling in the range of 846～856, with a stop-loss at 86. If it drops to 80k, see if it breaks down before recovering. If several 15-minute candlesticks repeat this, the support at 80k is still there; if not, it could continue to plunge.
Ethereum is not recommended for going long; the support point is not reliable, it was broken with one jab.
SOL is also moving like it's reincarnating, now near the 122 support level, with Bitcoin at 80k corresponding to SOL around 118.
In summary, friends who want to go long on Bitcoin can observe how US tech stocks and the overall market perform around tomorrow's opening. If they continue to decline, go short on Bitcoin during the rebound, as funds exit, we retail investors can just follow along.
