柒捌说币

此时市场充满了熊市和牛市的陷阱

柴犬刚刚设下的熊市陷阱，让那些做空这个表情包代币的人感到震惊。SHIB 短暂跌破 50 日均线后，跌破 0.000012 美元的支撑位，似乎出现了明显的技术面崩盘。随着成交量萎缩和动量指标的减弱，空头似乎终于占据了主导地位。许多交易员可能将此举视为趋势逆转的证据，但这种解读代价高昂且为时过早。
SHIB并没有继续下跌，而是迅速回吐涨幅，收复了跌破的支撑位，并在几分钟内收于 50 日均线上方。后期空头往往会因这种假突破而惊慌失措，而多头则会积极调整仓位。随后的价格走势恰恰印证了这一假设：SHIB 回落至 0.00001305 美元，表明市场信心正在复苏，并且随着成交量增加，可能预示着局部反弹的开始。 

这种设置的机制指向传统的震荡，即在资产回归先前走势之前，用来清除弱手的举措。这是一种隐蔽但有效的市场策略，在市场情绪不稳定、流动性有限时经常被使用。 
从技术面来看，0.00001339 美元和 0.00001350 美元目前是 SHIB 的阻力位。如果突破这些阻力位，看涨势头可能会重新燃起。下行方面，0.000012 美元和 0.00001256 美元附近的蓝色趋势线是重要的支撑位。只要这些水平持续存在，空头就会保持防御姿态。 

比特币已准备好应对波动
比特币的波动性即将开始收缩。在经历了强劲上涨并一度触及近119,000美元之后，该资产已进入横盘整理阶段，每日波动幅度逐渐缩小。目前，比特币价格在118,900美元附近，正接近上方阻力位，并在局部高点下方形成一个明显的水平线。 
在平顶之下，21日均线的支撑位巧妙地捕捉到了每一次下跌，并形成了典型的上升支撑结构，如同高压锅一般。在加密货币世界中，这种压缩很少是永久性的，尤其是对于像比特币这样的资产而言。 
从历史上看，这种低波动性往往预示着爆发性突破或崩盘。比特币目前的走势包括强劲的上涨趋势、看涨的移动平均线以及适当的成交量支撑，这表明其向上突破的可能性略高。 
但任何人在此妄下结论都是有风险的。如果收盘价明显突破 119,000-120,000 美元的阻力位，可能会立即飙升至新高。然而，如果上升趋势线被突破或突破尝试失败，比特币可能会回落测试 116,200 美元的更深支撑位，甚至测试 50 日均线 111,200 美元的支撑位。下一轮走势很可能取决于买入或卖出量的突然增加。  
XRP 稳定
经过数周的震荡和中期回调，XRP可能最终企稳，更重要的是，它可能有机会稳步回升。26 日均线（EMA）是一个动态支撑位，在看涨时期，它常常充当趋势延续的启动点，而该资产刚刚出现明显反弹。在从最近的局部高点 3.70 美元附近稳步回调之后，XRP 价格在 3.00 美元附近反弹。 
尽管出现了一些不稳定的日K线图，但回调期间，小幅看涨信号量显著下降。这表明，此次回调并非由任何强劲的抛售压力驱动。换句话说，交易者是在观望，而不是恐慌。26日均线的反弹尤其值得关注。自7月中旬XRP大幅上涨并突破所有重要移动均线以来，该移动均线尚未受到考验。 
如果价格维持在此水平并在未来几天继续创下更高的低点，则可能即将形成长期反转结构。这可能是最初看涨势头的延续。为了形成这种结构，XRP必须逐步恢复局部高点结构，且不引发波动性再次飙升。短期内最初的阻力位在 3.30 美元至 3.40 美元之间。
突破该水平可能预示多头再次占据主导地位，并为再次测试3.70美元及更高水平铺平道路。当然，此次反弹仍有待验证。如果XRP无法守住26日均线上方，或在反弹尝试中表现不佳，市场可能会重新探寻2.60美元甚至2.30美元附近的更深支撑位。但目前来看，市场格局已然成型。

$BTC $SHIB $XRP
#美国初请失业金人数 #白宫数字资产报告 #以太坊十周年

Risk continues to rise, suggesting that the adjustment period will intensify.

Ethereum again proves that it has not turned bearish. Since breaking cleanly above the consolidation level of around $3,000 in early July, ETH has been on a strong upward trajectory. It is currently trading slightly below the psychological barrier of $4,000. Ethereum is just a step away from testing the resistance level of $3,815, which has historically acted as a wall and a magnet.
Structurally, momentum is clearly strong. On the daily chart, the trend is clear: highs and lows are continually rising without signs of weakness. Ethereum's moving averages have unfolded into a typical bullish pattern after the breakout. The 21-day moving average acts as dynamic support, aiding price increases; although trading volume has slightly retreated, it remains stable.

The market will once again oscillate near local resistance levels, attempting to return to a bull market mode.

The price movement of Shiba Inu is consolidating above $0.0000134, indicating a critical moment. After a significant rise earlier this month, SHIB attempted to return to the $0.000015 area but faced strong resistance again near the 200-day moving average, leading to a local pullback.
SHIB is currently struggling to stabilize above the orange 100-day moving average, which constitutes soft support. The decline in volume indicates a lack of confidence among buyers, with momentum clearly weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to show a clear trend direction, remaining neutral between 48 and 50. Investors are highly attentive to this, as it is a typical decision point for SHIB.

The market may see a long-awaited recovery, but at the same time, the situation is not that good.

In recent weeks, XRP's price action has been volatile, soaring from below $2.30 to above $3.50. A double top pattern (a common bearish chart pattern) may form, but the recent trend of this asset may overshadow this new technical risk. Based on the current price structure, XRP experienced a significant drop after breaking around $3.50 and is currently rebounding.
The continued activity of bulls is reflected in the encouraging rebound above $3.20. The key is that if the price rebounds to the $3.50 area and fails to maintain the breakout, it could form a second peak, i.e., the second top of the double top, which may signal a short-term or medium-term reversal.

Bitcoin trading volume has surged significantly, dragging down other markets

The Bitcoin market has faced tremendous selling pressure, as a 400% surge in volume is typically a sign of structural weakness and a precursor to market volatility. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has formed a strong bullish structure, breaking out of a long-term consolidation area and trending upwards towards a target of $122,000.
However, this wave of increase was suddenly reversed as it approached a local high, followed by significant selling. Bitcoin's current trading price is around $115,700, down over 5% from recent highs. It has broken below the rising support trend line, facing greater downside risk. Although the price remains above the 50-day moving average ($114,945), the significant increase in volume during this drop strongly indicates market dispersion rather than strong market activity.

The first correction appears more serious than previously seen issues.

Shiba Inu has nearly retraced all of its gains from July. SHIB once broke through the critical $0.000015 mark, triggering bullish sentiment, but then fell back to $0.0000135, erasing weeks of upward momentum in just a few days. From the price chart, SHIB's breakout clearly failed.
SHIB rose in mid-July, with increasing trading volume, and reclaimed the 200-day moving average for the first time in months, seemingly ready to continue its upward trend. However, as selling pressure approached the resistance level of $0.0000155, momentum quickly reversed. This was followed by several days of selling, breaking through two key support levels of the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, which were expected to hold.

News cryptocurrency market commentary

In recent weeks, the price of Ripple (XRP) has surged from below $2.50 to nearly $3.60, creating a stir in the cryptocurrency market. In stark contrast to Ethereum's relatively weak price action, XRP's performance raises the question: Could XRP become a stronger competitor in the market?
The daily chart shows that XRP has experienced a strong momentum-driven breakout, pushing its price well above its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. The price action is robust, with the RSI having entered the overbought territory, yet there are almost no signs of panic selling; the RSI currently hovers above 80. This indicates that this rebound has been supported by sustained confidence, and importantly, resistance is low, contrasting sharply with previous Ethereum breakouts, which often faced strong selling pressure from institutional rotations and holders.

The Bitcoin correction is over, but it may push down altcoins.

Given the rapid decline in market momentum, SHIB may be facing a crash. After briefly recovering the crucial resistance level of $0.000015, SHIB began to reverse, with daily charts showing a decline of over 5% and signs of increasing selling pressure.
The proximity of SHIB to the 200-day moving average is currently the most important focus. SHIB's price is currently slightly above this moving average; if the price falls further, it will lead SHIB to break below this crucial long-term trend indicator, which could trigger panic among bulls and lead to a larger pullback. The 200-day moving average is the dividing line between bulls and bears in technical analysis.

The market has finally welcomed a breather after the previous significant rise.

XRP is heating up again. After strongly breaking through the $2.80 resistance level, the asset's price temporarily exceeded $3.50, erasing months of sideways consolidation. However, a second wave of price action may be brewing, pushing XRP to break through the highly anticipated $5 threshold, indicating that the upward momentum is not yet over.
From a technical perspective, XRP is performing exceptionally well. The 200-day MA, 100-day MA, and 50-day MA are currently forming a perfect bullish trend, and the asset has broken through all the significant resistance zones that had previously suppressed its rise. Currently, the previous consolidation area (between $2.40 and $2.80) provides strong support, which is ideal for XRP's secondary rise.

As top altcoins approach $4,000, $100 million in ETH shorts have been nearly wiped out.

According to data provided by CoinGlass, a total of $100.6 million worth of Ethereum (ETH) shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
Earlier this Sunday, ETH reached a new yearly high of $3,825 on the Coinbase exchange. This altcoin has broken the $3,800 mark for the first time since December 2024.
The most popular altcoin has skyrocketed more than 50% in just two weeks. With such strong momentum, its market capitalization has now surpassed that of Costco, Johnson & Johnson, and Palantir.

Bitcoin's cooling may unexpectedly push other markets forward

Recently, the Shiba Inu stock price significantly broke through the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), marking one of the structurally significant technical movements for the stock in months. This could signify a change in the entire market landscape for the asset, so for long-term holders and experienced traders, this is not just a technical footnote.
For years, the 200 EMA has been a reliable indicator for determining whether the market trend is bullish or bearish. Due to multiple failed breakouts and sustained consolidation below it, this EMA has served as a ceiling for SHIB since the beginning of 2024. But now, SHIB has decisively broken through the range of $0.00001450 to $0.00001500 and is maintaining above the 200 EMA, signaling a new phase that could ultimately be favorable for the bulls.

The payment volume of XRP's ledger has surged to an all-time high, gaining attention on the chain.

According to data from XRPSCAN, the cryptocurrency market has experienced an epic bull market in recent days, with XRP's on-chain payment activity sharply increasing.
On July 18, the payment amount from one account to another on the XRP ledger exceeded $1.4 billion, a level not reached since February 2025.
While a total of 1,408,887,886 XRP was transferred in large payment activities over the past day, this marks a significant increase compared to the $1.2 billion payment volume achieved the previous day.

Message Cryptocurrency Market Commentary

After experiencing one of the most intense surges among major altcoins, XRP now seems to be presenting a 'shooting star' pattern, which is a key technical indicator often signaling a short-term reversal. The latest daily chart for XRP shows a strong intraday pullback at higher price levels, with the pattern showing traditional shooting star characteristics: a long upper shadow, a small body, and almost no lower shadow.
This pattern typically appears after a sustained bullish phase and is considered a bearish reversal pattern if a bearish candlestick appears with increased selling volume. Before sellers intervened, forcibly pushing prices down and pulling down long shadows, XRP surged to a local high of around $3.70.

Since July, ETH has continuously broken through key resistance levels, and the market's short-term direction has begun to switch from 'Bitcoin dominance' to 'Ethereum dominance'. At the same time, an old track has once again awakened attention—ETH LSD (liquid staking).
In the LSD track, there is no doubt that Lido is the absolute leader.
So the question arises: is the LDO token worth paying attention to now? Can you still get on board?
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Considering that most assets are nearing key resistance levels, the market uptrend may continue.

Dogecoin is showing significant signs of recovery, with recent price movements indicating that a major breakthrough—perhaps the biggest of 2025 so far—may be brewing. Currently, this meme coin is trading at $0.21, having broken through a key resistance level, indicating that its strong momentum has continued from previous gains, achieving a noteworthy +1% daily increase. The chart shows that Dogecoin has broken through the crucial 200-day moving average (black line), which it has failed to surpass for months.

If bulls do not act decisively to assist Bitcoin, the market may be on the verge of a turnaround.

Given its daily network transaction volume, XRP is no longer a member of the billion-dollar club. The massive on-chain transaction volume once helped the asset's price rebound quickly, but this situation may have ended with the retreat of whales. Regardless of how sellers resist, XRP indicates it will not give up on its determination to break through the psychological barrier of $3.
The asset has demonstrated surprising resilience and persistence; after a explosive breakout last week failed to surpass $3.02, there was no significant pullback, but rather a consolidation just below the milestone level. Due to the large volatility, the chart structure exhibits strong bullish momentum. All major moving averages remain well above XRP's current price action, while the 200-day and 50-day moving averages are far below its current price trend.

The cryptocurrency market bull run may have peaked.

This week, Bitcoin soared over 300% from its lowest point, reaching $122,000. However, as large whale activity triggered a wave of selling pressure, the initial excitement was quickly replaced by caution. On the daily chart, Bitcoin strongly broke through the resistance level between $112,000 and $114,000, driven by volume.
All major moving averages, including the 50-day moving average at $107,800 and the 200-day moving average at $97,000, are far above the price. After this typical breakout, strong bullish momentum should have followed. However, it is now facing fundamental resistance. In particular, the notorious whale responsible for the 80,000 BTC wallet has begun transferring funds to the over-the-counter trading platform Galaxy Digital.

There are many possibilities for Bitcoin in the future, while other markets are struggling to keep up.

Bitcoin's price has entered a phase of rapid increase and shows the sustained breakthroughs that investors and traders have been anticipating. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has broken through all significant resistance levels, setting new historical highs, and analysts are frantically trying to determine where this trend will ultimately halt.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price has surpassed $122,000. This astonishing level indicates that when the world's largest cryptocurrency gains momentum, market sentiment can quickly shift to euphoria. The price itself is not the most notable feature of this rebound; what stands out is the complete absence of any lingering technical resistance. Now, all previous ceilings have been broken, and Bitcoin is in uncharted territory, with past supply zones that could sustain upward movement now gone.