加密土豆y

FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 周五(8月29日)进入亚市，比特币试图站稳11万美元关口，从两天前创下的六周低点反弹。但尽管有所回升，交易员仍然心存不安，因为矿工正以 九个月来最快的速度抛售比特币。问题在于，这是否预示着更深层的麻烦，还是由其他因素驱动了近期的资金外流。
周四早些时候加密货币市场一度反弹，但在美国交易时段下午持续遭遇卖盘。比特币一度突破 11.3万美元，但随后回落至 111,800美元，过去24小时下跌约 0.7%。

以太坊（ETH）和瑞波币（XRP）的跌幅更大，分别下跌 2.1% 和 1.4%。在主要加密货币中，表现突出的则是 Solana（SOL），过去一天上涨 3.1%。
比特币开局脆弱
比特币本周开局就处于脆弱状态——只需要一点火花便引发恐慌。一位巨鲸抛售近 24,000枚比特币（约合27亿美元），导致比特币价格在数小时内从 117,400美元 暴跌至 110,000美元。这一举动清算超过 5.5亿美元 的杠杆多头仓位，暴露出在大玩家出手时，市场流动性依旧极度脆弱。
这波急跌类似于典型的流动性清扫（liquidity sweep），这是机构交易框架中常提到的一种操作：价格猛烈洗掉仓位，然后再寻求平衡点。更巧合的是，事件发生在周末交易清淡时段，进一步放大了波动性，凸显市场中的 吸筹-派发周期 如何推动剧烈波动。

除了巨鲸砸盘，宏观环境也正在恶化。市场策略师警告，美联储可能被迫接受 滞胀（经济增长疲软 通胀顽固） 作为新的基准情景。
对比特币而言，这是一把双刃剑：
短期影响：滞胀带来“避险情绪”，交易员会抛售比特币和股票等高风险资产。
政策困境：美联储无法大幅降息，否则将重新点燃通胀，这也意味着比特币历史上受益的流动性推动难以重现。
交易层面：虽然比特币的长期对冲属性依旧存在，但短期内交易更多被波动性主导，投资者需要依靠价格行为确认，而不是盲目坚信。

因此，比特币目前的定价更像是 科技股的替代品，而不是“避险资产”。在波动骤升的环境下，缺乏清晰风险管理计划的投资者正是最容易受伤的一群。
矿工资金流动
根据 Glassnode 的数据，矿工钱包在 8月11日至8月23日 期间持续减少持仓，几乎没有重新累积的迹象。上一次连续每天净流出超过 500 BTC 的情况还是在 2024年12月28日，当时比特币多次未能守住 97,000 美元 上方。
在最近的这波抛售中，矿工在截至 8月23日的12天内共卖出 4,207 BTC，约合 4.85 亿美元。相比之下，在 4月至7月 的累积阶段，矿工曾增加 6,675 BTC 储备。目前矿工余额为 63,736 BTC，价值逾 71亿美元。

尽管与 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 和 Metaplanet (MTPLF) 等公司巨额持仓相比，这些流动相对较小，但它们往往引发市场猜测和 FUD（恐惧、不确定与怀疑）。如果矿工现金流趋紧，抛售压力可能会加大，除非盈利状况改善。
根据 HashRateIndex 数据，过去九个月比特币价格上涨 18%，但矿工盈利却下降 10%。挖矿难度上升和链上交易需求减弱压缩了利润空间。尽管比特币网络持续自我调整以维持 10分钟平均出块时间，盈利能力仍令人担忧。
黄金表现超过比特币
值得一提的是，黄金在比特币过去两周的艰难走势中却悄然攀升。周四黄金再次上涨 0.8%，至3,477美元。
从8月份来看，黄金的表现更为亮眼 —— 上涨近4%，而比特币则下跌 5.2%。

目前黄金交投在3,477美元/盎司，仅比本月早些时候创下的历史高点3,534美元低几美元。当时市场担心瑞士黄金条可能会被美国白宫纳入惩罚性关税对象（该担忧现已缓解）。
无论何种原因，近期的宏观环境 —— 更低的利率与走弱的美元 —— 推动了黄金的上涨，却未能点燃“数字黄金”（即比特币）的买盘。
展望9月，美联储预计将恢复降息，同时特朗普总统可能会任命一到两位新的（倾向鸽派的）美联储理事。2025年最后四个月或将变得颇为精彩。
比特币技术分析
比特币价格尝试自 108,734 美元低点开启新一轮反弹。BTC 一度突破109,500 美元 和 110,000 美元 阻力位。价格升破从 117,355 美元高点 至 110,734 美元低点 回调区间的 23.6% 斐波那契回撤位。多头甚至推动价格突破 112,500 美元阻力区间。然而，价格未能稳定在 113,000 美元 上方。

此后价格从该区间回调，并在 50% 斐波那契回撤位（117,355 美元高点至 110,734 美元低点） 附近受阻。此外，BTC/USD 小时图上，112,000 美元 附近的关键上升趋势线被跌破。
目前，比特币交易价位于 112,000 美元 和 100小时均线 下方。上行的直接阻力在 112,400 美元 附近。首个关键阻力位在 113,000 美元，下一个阻力可能在 113,500 美元。若能收于 113,500 美元 阻力上方，价格可能进一步走高，测试 114,000 美元 阻力位。若再度突破，行情或将上探 115,500 美元，主要目标在 116,500 美元。
若比特币未能突破 113,000 美元阻力区间，可能开启新一轮下跌。直接支撑位在 110,750 美元。首个主要支撑位在 110,000 美元。下一支撑位在 109,500 美元 区域。若进一步下跌，短期内可能跌向 108,500 美元 支撑。进一步支撑位在 106,500 美元，若跌破该位，BTC 可能大幅走低。

Why does ARK Invest continue to buy despite the decline in BitMine's stock price?
Key Points
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest continues to inject funds into BitMine Immersion (BMNR), indicating confidence in Tom Lee's Ethereum strategy. Despite recent market declines, BitMine's stock price has still risen 490% year-to-date, thanks to its robust revenue growth.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has bolstered its confidence in Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) with an additional acquisition of $15.6 million in shares, bringing its total investment in the company to over $300 million.

Solana has initiated a new round of increases above the $200 area. The SOL price is currently consolidating above $212 and is expected to further break through the $220 area.
The price of SOL has started to rise again, breaking through the $200 and $212 exchange rates.
The price is currently above $212 and the 100-hour simple moving average.
The hourly chart for SOL/USD has formed a bullish trend line, with support at $212 (data from Kraken).
If the resistance area at $220 is broken, this currency pair may continue its upward trend.
Solana's price continues to soar.

The price trend of Shiba Inu is consolidating within a clear symmetrical triangle, indicating that the company is about to face an important turning point. The price of SHIB has been consolidating around $0.0000126 for several weeks, and its structure suggests that a breakout, whether upward or downward, is almost inevitable in the coming trading days. SHIB has repeatedly tested resistance and support levels on the chart, and the indecision of traders is reflected in the contraction of volatility. A strong resistance level, particularly around $0.0000132-$0.0000140, still looms above the market, along with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. On the downside, the support level around $0.0000120 remains strong, providing stability for SHIB despite general market volatility. With the price trend narrowing, SHIB is essentially forced to make a swift decision. As trading volume begins to rise slightly, market participants seem to be preparing for a breakout.

关键要点
由于多头持仓依然强劲，比特币价格一直坚挺于密集的供应集群之上。其NVT黄金交叉可能也接近超卖水平，暗示如果新的买盘势头出现，比特币价格可能会反弹。
在撰写本文时，比特币似乎稳定在 93,000 美元至 110,000 美元之间——自 2024 年底以来，这一区域的供应一直在增加。 几个月来，这一区间一直是加密货币投资者和交易者的积累区。
如果买家继续吸纳更多加密货币，该区域可能会形成一个持久的底部。 否则，同一区域可能会遭遇一波抛售潮的考验。

损失不断增加，但持有者并未退缩
AMBCrypto 对 CryptoQuant 链上数据的分析显示，比特币的净未实现损失在这一价格区间一直在攀升。
通常情况下，这听起来像是一个危险信号。然而，恐慌性抛售的缺乏却告诉我们一个不同的故事。事实上，在资金回撤期间，持仓似乎一直很稳健——这表明他们有足够的信心渡过难关。
在以往的市场周期中，这种行为通常预示着逆转，而不是崩溃。

衡量卖家疲惫程度的标准？
这里值得指出的是，NVT 黄金交叉（将比特币的估值与交易活动进行比较）已经进入超卖区域。
这并不能保证市场已经触底，但确实意味着价格相对于网络使用量而言可能偏高。 在以往的周期中，类似的走势往往伴随着反弹行情，或标志着复苏的初期阶段。
就比特币而言，同样的模式可能会重复出现。

比特币交易者接下来应该期待什么？
那么，市场将面临怎样的境况呢？
如果抛售压力加速，比特币仍有可能跌破该区域，最终企稳。相反，如果BTC的需求能够保持与供应相匹配，正如积极的链上情绪所见，那么该区域可能成为下一轮大幅上涨的跳板。
目前，市场正处于观望阶段。 交易员和长期持有者都在观望，想知道9.3万至11万美元的价格区间是会成为新的基石，还是仅仅是比特币动荡之旅中的又一个战场。

Although Ethereum (ETH) failed to break through the $5,000 mark on August 24—pulling back from an all-time high (ATH) of $4,956—the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may soon cross this milestone, driven by booming new contract activity.
Ethereum's new contract activity is booming—will prices rise accordingly?
According to an article by writer PelinayPA published on CryptoQuant Quicktake, the number of Ethereum contracts may see a significant rebound in 2024 and 2025. Specifically, this year, as the price of ETH climbs above $4,500, the number of new contracts has significantly increased.

After the sharp drop in Bitcoin price, no currency has been spared from this brutal wreckage.
Key Points
Bitcoin dropped below $110,000, causing over $800 million in positions to evaporate, impacting 180,000 traders. This sell-off created shockwaves, but analysts believe it was a reset to clear leverage.
In the past 24 hours, nearly $800 million in cryptocurrency positions have been liquidated, with Bitcoin [BTC] being the focal point of market attention.
As of the time of writing, BTC has fallen below the $110,000 mark, raising questions: Did this sharp wave of liquidations stem directly from Bitcoin's decline, or does it signify deeper cracks in overall market sentiment?

AI coins are struggling, but will the collapse of AI16Z trigger a new wave?
Key points
AI coins have struggled in the last 24 hours, with AI16Z leading the way. Liquidity is below recent price movements, which may lead to further declines, but buyers are accumulating.
The entire cryptocurrency market is declining, but as investors withdraw funds from the sector, AI-focused tokens are the first to suffer sell-offs.
The hype surrounding AI projects based on Solana [SOL] is rapidly fading, with bearish sentiment accelerating the decline.
As of the time of writing, the total market capitalization of AI coins has fallen to $30.7 billion, with a daily drop of 3%.

Dogecoin has once again become the focus of attention, as its key technical movement against Bitcoin suggests it will strengthen again. Earlier this year, the DOGE/BTC trading pair experienced a liquidity shock, breaking free from weakness and subsequently recovering lost ground. Analysts now believe this rebound could lay the foundation for a strong rally.
Analysts believe that Dogecoin (DOGE) has significant upside potential.
Analysts indicate that Dogecoin has broken through the previous seller liquidity area on the weekly chart. This level is between 140 to 160 Satoshis and has been a key support level for months.

During a period of extreme volatility, total cryptocurrency liquidations approached $800 million, with Bitcoin ($277 million) and Ethereum ($263 million) at the forefront. Over-leveraged long positions on major exchanges exacerbated the sell-off, concentrating stop-loss orders, and a $39.24 million BTC/USDT single order on HTX triggered a chain reaction of liquidations.
Bitcoin and Ethereum had the largest liquidation amounts: BTC $277 million, ETH $263 million.
Altcoins also suffered significant losses: SOL $38 million, DOGE $18.7 million, XRP $17.3 million.

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 632,000. Will Wall Street reward him or punish him?
Key points
Strategy sold over $300 million worth of MSTR common stock to fund the latest BTC acquisition. Over the past few days, the stock price drop has been twice that of BTC.
Michael Saylor announced that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has acquired an additional 3,081 Bitcoin [BTC] for approximately $357 million.
This latest purchase has increased the company's Bitcoin holdings to 632,457 BTC, officially surpassing 3% of the total BTC supply. Notably, at the beginning of August, Saylor hinted that the company might aim to reach between 3% to 7% of the total BTC supply.

The price of Ethereum has significantly dropped from the $4,950 range and is currently stabilizing around $4,430. Previously, ETH faced strong resistance in the major supply range between $4,900 and $5,000, which halted the recent upward momentum. Despite the pullback, ETH remains above the support level of the upward trend line, providing buyers with an opportunity to regroup and push higher again.
What has changed in the price of Ethereum?

Ethereum has been in a long-term upward trend for most of August, rising from below $3,800 to nearly $5,000. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is still in an upward trend, with lows continuing to rise. The level of $4,400 is now a key turning point where the trend line intersects local support. The Parabolic SAR points remain above the price, indicating short-term bearish pressure, but the overall structure remains intact.

After a period of volatility, XRP's price stabilized around $2.92 today, having previously dropped to $2.85 and then quickly rebounding. Sellers continue to limit price gains around $3.05, and as volatility decreases, the wedge pattern is gradually narrowing. On August 26, there was a small net inflow of $20.9 million in spot trading, indicating that despite the overall market weakness, buyers are cautiously entering on dips.
What is the price of XRP?

On the 4-hour chart, XRP continues to trade within a descending channel, with the price currently in the mid-range between the support level of $2.85 and the resistance level of $3.05. The Bollinger Bands remain wide, with the price leaning towards the lower half of the bands, indicating pressure on the price, but there is still room for a rebound if liquidity increases. The balanced trading volume stabilizes around $3.23 billion, and although there has been a recent decline, there is no significant outflow of funds.

FX168 Finance reported (Asia-Pacific) that on Tuesday (August 26) entering the Asian trading session, Bitcoin lost the $110,000 level, roughly returning to the level on Trump’s inauguration day on January 20, currently down over 11% from the historical high set less than two weeks ago. Other cryptocurrencies fared even worse, with Ethereum dropping 8% in the past 24 hours.

The rebound of cryptocurrencies on Monday failed to hold, with prices quickly dropping again during US afternoon trading. After the weekend's cryptocurrency plunge, the market had hoped for a rapid recovery, but those hopes were dashed on Monday. Bitcoin's price fell back to $109,824, nearly matching the euphoric level of $109,400 reached before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is around $110,200, close to levels prior to its first break below the months-long uptrend line since April. Sellers pushed BTC down from the $124,000 area, leading to a significant decline, breaking through the bullish channel. Spot inflows also turned negative, recording a net outflow of $44 million on August 26. This indicates that investors have become cautious after the recent rise.
What is Bitcoin's price?

The daily chart shows that BTC has broken out of the upward structure, falling below the support level of $112,000-$113,000. The current price is testing the $109,800-$110,500 area, which aligns with previous liquidity and demand zones. A sustained close below $110,000 will confirm further declines to $108,000, while a rebound above $112,000 would require a restoration of short-term momentum.

The market-leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) recently attempted to stabilize around $112,000 after a sharp drop to $110,000 on Sunday, which represents a 10% decrease from its all-time high (ATH).
Before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in September, market expert Doctor Profit emphasized the impending impacts and the most important technical indicators, which portray a bleak outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader market.
Will the Fed's interest rate cuts trigger a new round of market adjustments?
Doctor Profit emphasized that the current market environment is radically different from previous cycles. He believes that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates next month, which could trigger a strong pullback in both the stock market and cryptocurrencies.

XRP's market history typically shows a long consolidation phase followed by significant breakout trends. In 2017, the token experienced the most notable surge, skyrocketing from less than a cent to several dollars in a matter of months. The same consolidation and expansion pattern is being tested in the current market cycle.
Cryptocurrency analyst Steph Is Crypto recently showcased a chart comparing the 2017 XRP breakout with the price structure of 2025.

The side-by-side comparison highlights the structural similarities between the two periods. Both exhibit clear Elliott Wave patterns, with consolidation phases forming symmetrical triangle structures, ultimately leading to upward trends.

The Dogecoin to USD exchange rate has fallen below the $0.220 area, starting a new round of decline. Dogecoin is currently in a consolidation phase and may further drop below $0.2050.
DOGE price has started to decline again, breaking below $0.220.
The price is below the $0.2150 level and the 100-hour simple moving average.
A bearish trend line has formed on the hourly chart of DOGE/USD, with resistance at $0.2160 (data from Kraken).
If the price stays above $0.20, it may start a new round of upward movement.
Dogecoin price is declining again.
The Dogecoin price began a new round of decline after closing below $0.2320, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Dogecoin broke below the support levels of $0.220 and $0.2150.

Ethereum (ETH) has consistently exceeded expectations. During the 2020-2021 bull market, ETH skyrocketed over 3,900%, rising from under $100 to a peak of nearly $4,900.
The momentum behind this rally stems from the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and enthusiasm from institutional investors. As Ethereum enters a new cycle, supported by stronger fundamentals and broader applications, investors are preparing for a possible replay.
This time, the narrative transcends retail speculation. Institutional demand is growing at a record pace, and Ethereum ETFs, staking yields, and corporate bond allocations are reshaping the market landscape.

With the support of the Solana Foundation and Cantor Fitzgerald, this massive funding could turn the tide for SOL.
Key Points
Top cryptocurrency firms are supporting a massive SOL funding initiative that could exceed all existing reserves. The project is expected to transform SOL into a significant asset within institutional portfolios.
Reports say that Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are collaborating to take bold actions within the Solana [SOL] ecosystem.
A recent report from Bloomberg states that these three individuals are seeking to raise $1 billion to establish the largest Solana treasury ever.