及时雨老黄1

The First Wave of the Day

March 10 Morning Thoughts
From the four-hour chart, it can be observed that in this weak environment, there has been a continuous decline with almost no rebounds. From a technical structure perspective, on the daily level, the price is under pressure, oscillating around the middle track, and the running channel is in a contracting state. The bearish volume arrangement continues, with no signs of volume contraction despite the presence of thin bars. The moving averages are turning upward but failing to maintain that momentum. It cannot be said that there are obvious signs of a significant decline in the trend, but currently, there is no demand for upward surges. In the short cycle rhythm, it still leans toward weak downward consolidation, and our subsequent strategy focuses on entering short positions.

Operational Suggestions
For Bitcoin, around 81000 to 81500, target 80000 to 79400
For Ethereum, around 2050 to 2080, target 1980 to 1950

The ideal choice is for the government not to establish a crypto reserve; if a reserve is to be established, it should be based on objective standards.

Solana co-founder Toly shared his views on decentralized reserve mechanisms on the X platform. He stated that the best option is not to set up a reserve, because allowing the government to manage reserves would lead to the failure of decentralization. Toly further pointed out that if reserves must be established, individual states could manage them to hedge against possible missteps by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, if a reserve mechanism is absolutely necessary, it should be based on objective, measurable, and reasonable standards rather than subjectively set rules. He concluded by emphasizing that regardless of how the reserve mechanism is set, the Solana ecosystem can meet and exceed its goals, demonstrating strong competitiveness.

The United States establishes a Bitcoin war reserve, but will not actively purchase additional Bitcoin using taxpayer money

Trump has established a Bitcoin war reserve as scheduled, but the White House cryptocurrency leader revealed that 'the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce have the authority to develop budget-neutral strategies to acquire additional Bitcoin, provided that these strategies do not impose incremental costs on American taxpayers. Additionally, the establishment of a U.S. digital asset reserve will consist of digital assets other than Bitcoin seized in criminal or civil proceedings; apart from assets obtained through the seizure process, the government will not purchase additional assets for the digital asset reserve.' This has suppressed the price of Bitcoin. Previously, there were considerable expectations that the U.S. would purchase additional Bitcoin to supplement reserves.

Evening Duo Success Victory

Evening thoughts successfully verified

Trump Signs Executive Order to Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserves

The White House cryptocurrency chief stated that Trump signed an executive order to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. The reserves come from the Bitcoins owned by the federal government, which were confiscated during criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings, and will not cost taxpayers a dime. It is estimated that the U.S. government holds about 200,000 Bitcoins. The government will not sell any Bitcoins deposited in the reserves, as premature sales in the past have cost U.S. taxpayers over $17 billion. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies to acquire additional Bitcoins, provided that these strategies do not incur incremental costs to U.S. taxpayers. Additionally, the executive order establishes a U.S. digital asset reserve, composed of digital assets other than Bitcoins confiscated in criminal or civil litigation, and the government will not make additional purchases for the digital asset reserve. The purpose of establishing the digital asset reserve is to manage the government's digital assets through the Department of the Treasury.

Evening Thoughts on March 7
In the morning, the big pie first saw a downward trend, reaching a low of around 84600, and then started to oscillate upwards, currently operating around 89100. There are still quite a few news items today, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, White House summit, and Lao Huang still maintains a bullish outlook! There is also a possibility of a pin bar, so just ensure proper defense when trading.

Trading Suggestions
Big pie around 88000 to 88500 for a long position, target around 89800 to 90500
Auntie around 2130 to 2160 for a long position, target around 2230 to 2260

1.30 Lunchtime Silk Road:
Big Pancake
Good afternoon, brothers. Big Pancake didn’t have much fluctuation yesterday. It has been trading sideways above the four-hour support. It only spiked at night and rebounded again to close today’s daily support. In other words, this wave of rise is a daily level rise. The upper target pressure is 105581.106825. Short orders can be taken in this range. With a stop loss, wait steadily around 108000. The support below is 104000.103200. If it does not break through these two positions, the market is bullish. At least the four-hour level closes below 103200. The market will weaken, and the support below is 101400.100200

Ether
Ether daily line is still short. At present, it is only a four-hour level rebound. It has just rebounded to the daily pressure of 3225 and started to fall back. Only when the daily line breaks through this pressure will the market continue to rise. The upper pressure is 3360.3430. Remember that the daily line stabilizes, which means that the daily line will close tomorrow. It will not be reached immediately after breaking through. The small level retracement support is 3154. If it does not fall below this position, continue to look at the rebound. Only when the four-hour level closes below this position, this wave of rebound will be considered over. The target support below is 3087.3038.

1.21 noon Silk Road:

Big cake closed at 102247 in the morning, fell back to 100097 in the morning and rebounded to around 102987, currently around 102600

Second cake closed at 3284 in the morning, fell back to around 3203 in the morning and rebounded to around 3273, currently around 3240

Operation suggestions:
Big cake near 102400-102200, target around 103500-104000
Second cake near 3220-3200, target around 3270-3300#特朗普就职后行情怎么走？ #特朗普妻子发币 #

1.17 noon Silk Road:

Big cake rose to around 102100 in the morning and then fell back, currently around 101000.
The second cake rose to 3390 in the morning and then fell back, currently around 3370.

From the current four-hour structure, the big cake double head increment touched the upper return, pay attention to around 102000 above, pay attention to around 98200 below, from the one-hour structure, the big cake double head gradually brightened, pay attention to 101500 above and around 99700 below.

Operation suggestions:
Big cake double around 100800-100600, target around 101500-102000
Second cake double around 3350-3330, target around 3390-3410#BTC重回10万 #XRP突破新高？ #AIXBT涨势强劲

Analysis of Market Trends in the First Half of 2025:
Let's briefly discuss the first half of 2025:
First, regarding ordinary scripts, let's outline the market trends for 2025. In late January this year, the approval of Ethereum staking ETFs is likely to lead to a wave of upward movement that may last for 2-3 weeks, with altcoins likely to experience a rebound (still, some altcoins may surge significantly, so it's important to pay attention to what concepts will be hot at that time). Then, starting in March, there will be continued fluctuations, with both bulls and bears being affected, and Bitcoin oscillating around 100,000. Each time Bitcoin drops, altcoins will typically take a hit first; this situation may persist until May-June, and only then might we see a clearer direction.
At the same time, the first half of 2025 will also present many opportunities. After the new president takes office, there may be a brief small peak, likely around the time of Trump's inauguration, which is next Monday, so caution is necessary. However, in the first and second quarters of this year, as per the script I mentioned earlier, it is highly likely that the new president will introduce various favorable policies or positive news to further stimulate the market!
Now, let's talk about the impact of interest rate cuts on the market:
Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has returned to 30%, 55% for May, and 94% for June. Next week, there is also an important event regarding Japan's interest rate hike (January 24); if confirmed, it would negatively impact the market.
Therefore, the key timing for potential upward movement could be around the 20th for about four days. If various cryptocurrencies rise to reach resistance zones, it may be time to consider liquidating most positions.

1.16 Morning Silk Road

The midnight Bitcoin rose from around 98600 to about 100700 and then retraced, currently around 100100.

Bitcoin around 99900-99700 is fluctuating, target around 100600-101100.
Second Bitcoin around 3420-3400 is fluctuating, target around 3460-3480. #核心CPI回落 #美国PPI温和上涨 #还有山寨季？

Afraid that my brothers suffer, and afraid that my brothers drive a Range Rover
Dodan won the big pancake for 1800 points, and the second pancake for 70 points, collecting more than 20,000 rice,
Grasp the upcoming navigation situation, closely follow the pace of autumn farewell, easily handle the navigation situation. #美国PPI温和上涨 #AIAgent热潮 #还有山寨季？

Follow the current trend, devote yourself to it, seize the opportunity, enter the market directly with long orders, and finally reap rich rewards! #核心CPI回落 #美国PPI温和上涨 #哪些代币逆势上涨？

Congratulations to those who have caught up here.

The big pancake has taken 1800 classics, earning 10441 oil, the second pancake has taken 70 classics, earning 14075 oil.

Keep it up, keep going, and achieve even better results!!

Big pancake 96682 Duo, 98520 leaves the venue and bags 1800 Dian

Ether 3197 Duo, 3270 leaves the venue and bags 70 Dian

Because there are goals, everything is possible, as long as you choose correctly and follow Qiu Ci, isn't picking up oil effortless? #美国PPI温和上涨 #还有山寨季？ #微策略持续增持BTC

I'm just afraid that you will do nothing and still comfort yourself by saying: Ordinary is precious

In this wave of market, Qiu Ci has made an early layout and accurately collected the song #美国PPI温和上涨 #美国CPI数据即将公布

In the world of cryptocurrency, some people make profits while others face liquidation. Here are a few points to see if you’ve fallen victim!
Many people in the crypto circle continue to trade even after liquidation for the following reasons:
1. The influence of speculative psychology
1. Desire for quick profits
- People are often attracted by the high returns that contract trading may bring. In their view, despite the risks, contracts could be a shortcut to rapid wealth accumulation. Compared to other investment methods, they believe contracts have the opportunity to yield huge returns in a short period. This desire for quick gains makes it difficult for them to let go even after liquidation.
- For example, some people see others becoming overnight millionaires through contract trading in the crypto world and harbor fantasies, thinking they too could become lucky, so they continue to invest even after liquidation.
2. Unwillingness to accept defeat
- After liquidation, many people are unwilling to accept failure, believing they simply had bad luck or made mistakes, and that they will definitely win back their losses next time. This unwillingness to accept defeat drives them to continue trading in an attempt to recover their losses. #美国PPI温和上涨 #还有山寨季？ #美国CPI数据即将公布