Analysis of Market Trends in the First Half of 2025:

Let's briefly discuss the first half of 2025:

First, regarding ordinary scripts, let's outline the market trends for 2025. In late January this year, the approval of Ethereum staking ETFs is likely to lead to a wave of upward movement that may last for 2-3 weeks, with altcoins likely to experience a rebound (still, some altcoins may surge significantly, so it's important to pay attention to what concepts will be hot at that time). Then, starting in March, there will be continued fluctuations, with both bulls and bears being affected, and Bitcoin oscillating around 100,000. Each time Bitcoin drops, altcoins will typically take a hit first; this situation may persist until May-June, and only then might we see a clearer direction.

At the same time, the first half of 2025 will also present many opportunities. After the new president takes office, there may be a brief small peak, likely around the time of Trump's inauguration, which is next Monday, so caution is necessary. However, in the first and second quarters of this year, as per the script I mentioned earlier, it is highly likely that the new president will introduce various favorable policies or positive news to further stimulate the market!

Now, let's talk about the impact of interest rate cuts on the market:

Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has returned to 30%, 55% for May, and 94% for June. Next week, there is also an important event regarding Japan's interest rate hike (January 24); if confirmed, it would negatively impact the market.

Therefore, the key timing for potential upward movement could be around the 20th for about four days. If various cryptocurrencies rise to reach resistance zones, it may be time to consider liquidating most positions.