芒果Crypto

Reduce external interference, pay less attention to meaningless debates and show-offs, and maintain independent thinking;

Value review and data calculation to improve decision-making quality;

Integrate into a like-minded circle, supporting and helping each other.

In this way, regardless of the field one is in, one can ultimately achieve ideal results.

Many people suffer huge losses due to impatience and eagerness to make money, or experience significant drawdowns due to excessive greed after making profits, and they also lack the patience to wait for familiar opportunities.

After reaching a recent high, the price has pulled back, which aligns with the pattern of high-level fluctuations and corrections.

Although the market's volatility has increased the magnitude of the pullback compared to regular corrections, the overall upward trend remains intact.

Currently, the price has retraced to the vicinity of 102000, with support set at the important previous support level and the bull-bear dividing line at 100700, focusing on buying on dips.

Bitcoin: In the afternoon, one can buy in the range of 101500-102000, targeting around 105000.

Ethereum: In the afternoon, one can buy in the range of 2300-2350, targeting around 2500.

May 19 Global Foreign Exchange Market News:
1. Moody's downgrades the U.S. sovereign credit rating, U.S. Treasury Secretary responds: On May 16, international credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the rating outlook changed from 'negative' to 'stable'.

The reason is the increase in the ratio of U.S. government debt to interest payments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated on May 18 that she does not have much faith in Moody's, calling it a 'lagging indicator'.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary discusses tariffs: Yellen stated that the U.S. is focusing tariff discussions on 18 key partnerships.

If countries do not negotiate sincerely, tariffs will revert to levels seen on April 2. For many smaller trade relationships, tax rates can be set directly.

3. EU export situation to the U.S.: Before Trump's 'Liberation Day', EU exports to the U.S. surged by 59%, with the trade surplus reaching a historic high.

4. Swiss National Bank President's statement: The President of the Swiss National Bank stated that constructive talks were held with the U.S. on foreign exchange issues and emphasized that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator.

5. European Central Bank officials' remarks:
- Governing Council member Wunsch expressed a dovish stance, stating that rates may need to be reduced to below 2%, and for the foreseeable future, there is no reason to further cut rates by 50 basis points.

- Chief Economist Lane stated that the ECB will release an updated strategy in the second half of the year, with uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs being included in June's forecasts.

6. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor's remarks: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi stated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, they will continue to raise interest rates.

7. Canadian Finance Minister's statement: The Canadian Finance Minister stated that most tariffs on the U.S. still remain.

The ETH MEME section thrives together; we hope that the leading project communities maintain harmony and mutual prosperity, working hand in hand to strive for the resurgence of ETH MEME 💪. All of this is about to come.

Important Updates on May 16
7:00-12:00 Keywords: GENIUS Act, Ripple, AI Scam
1. FBI warns that AI scams are escalating, hackers use deepfake voice to impersonate U.S. officials;

2. U.S. court dismisses SEC's settlement motion with Ripple due to procedural errors;

3. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund invests $408 million in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF;

4. Strategy director Jarrod Patten sells $5.2 million worth of company stock;

5. U.S. Senate Majority Leader has submitted a motion to end debate on the GENIUS Act;

6. California pension fund discloses purchasing $276 million worth of Strategy stock;

7. The Central Bank of Russia rates Bitcoin as the best-performing asset in the country's financial market by April 2025.

Friday Afternoon Jingyi Operational Strategy Analysis:
The current market is in a wide range of fluctuations, with the upper boundary of the range around 105000 being an important resistance level, and the key support at 101000 below.

In the morning, it rebounded to around 104500 but faced pressure again, with upward momentum weakening and the effect of the resistance level continuing.

Short-term operation suggestion: Continue to look for short opportunities around 104500, if it cannot effectively break through and stabilize above 105000, the high short strategy remains unchanged.

1. Life does not require too much wealth; 5 bitcoins are enough.

2. Bitcoin itself is risk-free; the biggest risk is missing out on holding due to misjudging the risk.

3. Looking back several years later, the 2025 Bitcoin candlestick chart may be as smooth as a straight line.

4. Bitcoin has no market makers; those who try to manipulate the market will find it difficult to re-enter after pushing prices up to sell.

5. Predicting 150,000 is not impressive; foreseeing 300,000 when it's at 100,000 shows great vision.

6. In the future, the threshold for holding coins will be lower; investing 0.01 bitcoins will be as easy as investing 10,000 satoshis is now.

7. Institutional purchases are not a positive for non-bitcoin assets; being chosen by institutions is a positive for institutions.

8. The dollar is not a competitor to bitcoin; surpassing the dollar is not its lofty vision.

9. In the future, holding bitcoin itself will reflect the highest quality of life.

If a person stubbornly believes that they know everything, they are often in a state of cognitive blind spot.

Especially when the facts have clearly disproved their viewpoint, they still refuse to acknowledge it, cannot reflect on themselves, and even insist stubbornly due to concern for their image;

The risks hidden in such cognitive inertia can be considered latent dangers, and the decision-making errors or behavioral deviations resulting from this may lead to immeasurable losses.

Only by breaking the illusion of "self-imposed limitations" and accepting facts and feedback with an open mind can one achieve a leap in cognitive levels.

Trading mindset reminder: Stubbornness (misjudgment yet refusing to admit) is a major taboo in trading. Stubbornly holding onto mistakes can lead to immeasurable losses.

Cognitive breakthrough: Acknowledging one's limitations and correcting mistakes in a timely manner is the key to advancing trading skills.

On May 15, U.S. President Trump stated in Doha, the capital of Qatar, that India proposed a "zero tariff" trade agreement with the United States.

He mentioned that India's tariff barriers are high, making it difficult for U.S. products to sell in India, but India has proposed to lower tariffs on U.S. goods.

It is reported that the Indian Minister of Commerce will visit the U.S. from May 17 to 20 to meet with Trump administration officials for further negotiations.

On the same day, Trump also stated that he had asked Apple CEO Tim Cook to stop building factories in India and to increase production in the U.S.

Previously, media reports indicated that Apple originally planned to import most of its iPhones sold in the U.S. from India by the end of next year to mitigate risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but Trump's remarks disrupted Apple's plans.

BTC previously took profit at 103900 for long positions near 103000, gaining 800 points. The current market is volatile, and it is recommended to primarily go long at lower levels, avoiding short positions for now.

BTC is at a key resistance level, and a pullback to 103000-102500 with stabilization can be a long opportunity, targeting 105000, with strict stop-loss;

Breaking above 105000 will open up upward space, while failing to do so will continue the volatility, requiring dynamic adjustments based on breakout situations.

For ETH, it is recommended to go long directly at 2530, targeting 2700.

Analysis of Rebound Drivers
1. Market Style Switch: Ethereum rebounded by 50% under strong community FUD, validating the 'low expectation reversal' logic, with funds shifting towards lower-valued, deeply corrected sectors.

2. High Elasticity of Bitcoin Ecosystem: Leading projects generally fell over 90% since last year's boom, viewed by the market as an extreme compression area with 'no trading logic', becoming a starting point for rebounds.

3. Speculative Game Driving: Marginal ecosystem assets, due to high volatility, have become targets for short-term capital strikes.

BSC Opportunity Review and Strategy Analysis

Often criticized for having "no opportunities," BSC has seen the emergence of several potential cryptocurrencies over the past year:

Case Study: KOMA rose from 0.005 to 0.2 (40 times); currencies like TST, MUBARAK, and TUT have achieved increases of over 5 times.

Advantages: High concentration of hot spots, high popularity, and information is easier to capture in the bottom range (such as MEME concepts, etc.).

Operational Logic: Do not chase highs, do not be greedy, take profits upon doubling, which can achieve a high probability of profit.

Comparison: Apart from SOL, BSC is one of the ecosystems with more short-term hot opportunities.

SOL Position Distribution and Market Analysis
- Market Background: BTC has been fluctuating slightly in the range of 102,000-104,500, with support levels at 101,600, 100,700, and 99,000. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, and SOL has followed suit, slightly fluctuating after reaching a high of 184.8.

- SOL Data Characteristics:
- The turnover rate on Wednesday significantly decreased compared to Tuesday (from nearly 20 million on Tuesday to less than 4.5 million on Wednesday), indicating a predominant short-term exit of chips, with slight selling in the early $21 cost area and minimal changes in other ranges.

- Chips are concentrated in the range of 174-182, with over 55 million accumulating in the 171-174 range, but this range represents short-term holdings, and the strength of support remains to be observed;

The technical aspect shows that the 166-171 range is effective support (validated by K-line and URPD data).

- Trend Outlook: SOL mostly follows the market; if narrative speculation occurs during market fluctuations, it could trigger an independent rally.

【Market Review】
BTC previously exhibited a triangular convergence pattern, quickly rebounding after a false breakdown washout.

If one continues to place right-side orders after being stopped out, the current profit can reach over 90%.

【Trading Difficulties】
Right-side trading often encounters repeated stop losses, especially when facing strongly washed-out currencies, which poses a significant test of mentality.

In the past 6 weeks, the BTC market trend has been evident: one week of increase with high volume, followed by one week of correction with low volume and small candlesticks, showing an overall stable and positive trend.

In the next two to three weeks, it is highly likely that BTC will attempt to break through and set a new historical high.

If a correction occurs later, the area near the EMA20 moving average is a good entry point;

Additionally, waiting for it to break through and set a new historical high, and then following the trend is also a feasible strategy. Investors should closely monitor market changes to seize trading opportunities.

Rock-paper-scissors is the most intuitive "predictive game": when I was in elementary school, I would first "announce my move" and then deduce the prediction level based on the opponent's personality—I would say "buns", and if you guessed I would play "rock", you would play "scissors", while I might predict another layer and play "paper"... This psychological game can loop infinitely until the moment of action.

The financial market is no different: everyone is trying to predict the direction of "bullish/bearish", yet they forget the counter-logic that "when bullish is fully realized, it becomes bearish, and when bearish is fully realized, it becomes bullish".

When the market becomes a large rock-paper-scissors arena, what is measured is never "one-way reasoning", but rather a multi-layered understanding of human nature's game.

In the past, there were only a few MEMEs in the crypto world, simple and joyful.

Now, dozens of new MEMEs emerge every day.

I can't help but wonder, will this way of playing come to an end? When will it end?

Trading Verification: Early morning long position layout succeeded, Bitcoin gained 800 points, Ethereum earned over 60 points in profit, accurately hitting long and short points for two consecutive days.

Market Analysis: The daily chart is in a consolidation phase, with a doji candlestick oscillating, a long lower shadow, and an upward shift in the low point indicating strong support, with bulls in control, experiencing technical adjustments but quickly recovering.

Trading Strategy: Thursday morning, go long on Bitcoin at 102500-103000, target 104500-105500; go long on Ethereum at 2550-2560, target 2650-2700.