May 19 Global Foreign Exchange Market News:
1. Moody's downgrades the U.S. sovereign credit rating, U.S. Treasury Secretary responds: On May 16, international credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the rating outlook changed from 'negative' to 'stable'.
The reason is the increase in the ratio of U.S. government debt to interest payments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated on May 18 that she does not have much faith in Moody's, calling it a 'lagging indicator'.
2. U.S. Treasury Secretary discusses tariffs: Yellen stated that the U.S. is focusing tariff discussions on 18 key partnerships.
If countries do not negotiate sincerely, tariffs will revert to levels seen on April 2. For many smaller trade relationships, tax rates can be set directly.
3. EU export situation to the U.S.: Before Trump's 'Liberation Day', EU exports to the U.S. surged by 59%, with the trade surplus reaching a historic high.
4. Swiss National Bank President's statement: The President of the Swiss National Bank stated that constructive talks were held with the U.S. on foreign exchange issues and emphasized that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator.
5. European Central Bank officials' remarks:
- Governing Council member Wunsch expressed a dovish stance, stating that rates may need to be reduced to below 2%, and for the foreseeable future, there is no reason to further cut rates by 50 basis points.
- Chief Economist Lane stated that the ECB will release an updated strategy in the second half of the year, with uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs being included in June's forecasts.
6. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor's remarks: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi stated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, they will continue to raise interest rates.
7. Canadian Finance Minister's statement: The Canadian Finance Minister stated that most tariffs on the U.S. still remain.