周期老易

Family, the night of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is just around the corner, which is significant for us Bitcoin bulls. What will our fate be? There are two key signals to keep a close eye on!
Looking back at history, before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2019, Bitcoin surged wildly, but once the rate cut news was announced, it plummeted by 38% in a single day, which is a typical case of good news being fully priced in. By 2024, it was thought that history would repeat itself, but as Trump took the stage, large amounts of ETF funds flowed in and companies increased their holdings, Bitcoin instead rose by 30%.
Looking at September 2025, there may be two scenarios. If Bitcoin breaks through $115,000 before the interest rate cut, it is highly likely to retrace just like in 2019, because the good news would have already been fully digested. If it oscillates between $100,000 and $105,000, it indicates that it hasn't been overly speculated, and after the interest rate cut, it could very likely continue to rise to $115,000.

Family, the market is buzzing again! The Federal Reserve's move has captured everyone's attention. In the recently released Federal Reserve Beige Book, they gave us the hard truth: the economy in most parts of the United States is currently like being stuck in rush hour traffic, basically at a standstill.
Think about it, there are a total of 12 districts in the United States, and only 4 districts show a slight hint of economic growth, while the remaining 8 are just standing still. Now look at prices; all ten regions say prices are still rising, but at a 'moderate' pace, like simmering on low heat, not so rapid, but not stopping either.

The first wave of significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market for September has officially begun! This is so exciting yet nerve-wracking, we must chat about it.
First, let me explain to friends who are not very familiar, non-farm data refers to the U.S. non-agricultural employment data, which reflects the increase and decrease of job positions in industries outside agriculture, as well as key information such as the unemployment rate. This data has a huge impact on the financial market, and every announcement is like a giant stone thrown into a calm lake, stirring up layers of waves, especially in the cryptocurrency market that is super sensitive to news.
Recently, the market in the cryptocurrency world has been a bit confusing. The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating wildly, sometimes rising to the point of making people want to cheer, and other times dropping to the point of causing anxiety. Mainstream coins like Ethereum have also been rising and falling, while altcoins are like a roller coaster, thrilling and heart-pounding. And all of this is closely related to tonight's non-farm data.

Recently, the global financial market has been like a roller coaster, so thrilling that it's hard to breathe. With a wave of his hand, Trump ignited the smell of gunpowder in the U.S.-Japan trade war, causing the stock and foreign exchange markets to change dramatically. Meanwhile, a thrilling saying spread in the cryptocurrency circle: Bitcoin is about to soar by 50%, and global capital is frantically pouring into cryptocurrencies for hedging! Is this truly a wealth opportunity, or just a beautiful illusion? Today, let's dig deeper into this.
First, let's talk about the U.S.-Japan trade war initiated by Trump. As we all know, a trade war is like knocking down a domino; a small action can trigger a chain reaction in the global economy. The United States and Japan, one being the world's largest economy and the other a strong economy highly reliant on exports, the trade friction between the two directly impacts the global supply chain, leaving many traditional investors in a panic. In the stock market, the stocks of companies closely related to the U.S.-Japan trade have seen prices slide down like a slide; in the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of the yen and the dollar has also fluctuated significantly, with investors watching the numbers in their accounts rise and fall, feeling anxious. In this chaotic situation, everyone is looking for a 'safe haven,' a place to stabilize assets in the storm, which is why Bitcoin has entered people's sight.

People often ask me: 'If I only have 1000 yuan in capital, is it feasible to earn 100,000 in the crypto world?'
As someone who has been in the crypto world for several years, I can responsibly say—of course it's feasible, and there are two concrete paths that can be taken.
First, let’s talk about the first point: capture three '10x coins.'
Don’t think that '10x' sounds scary; in the crypto world, as long as you catch the right trend, many small coins have this potential. The key is not to be greedy and grab a bunch, but to focus on the opportunity and thoroughly understand one '10x' at a time.
If you break down your goals, it becomes very clear:
- First, use 1000 yuan to catch the first 10x coin, turning it into 10,000;

Federal Reserve Chairman Williams, every move he makes closely grips the hearts of global investors, and our friends in the cryptocurrency circle are particularly concerned because his decisions have a huge impact on Bitcoin!
Just recently, Williams' statements about the direction of interest rates have stirred up a storm in the financial markets. There is a complex connection between interest rates and Bitcoin prices. Generally speaking, if interest rates decrease, there will be more money in the market, and the cost of borrowing will also decrease. This is definitely a super favorable news for our cryptocurrency circle!

Family, there has been a big stir in the financial circle recently! The ADP non-farm payroll data surprised everyone, which has piqued the market's curiosity. Everyone is guessing whether this will affect the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions. Where will the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy head? Let's talk about this today.
First, let me explain what the ADP non-farm payroll is for those who are not familiar. The ADP non-farm payroll refers to the employment data released by the American Data Processing Company, which mainly reflects the employment situation in the U.S. private sector. Because it is published earlier than the non-farm payroll data released by the Labor Department, it is commonly referred to as 'ADP non-farm payroll'. This data is quite important for assessing the state of the U.S. job market.

Family, the recent big topic in the financial circle must be the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. This matter has quite an impact on ordinary people and is a huge shock to the digital currency market, especially Bitcoin (BTC). Today, let's have a good talk about what impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has on Bitcoin.
Let me briefly explain the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Recently, a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials have raised market expectations for a rate cut in September. The CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" indicates that the market currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September with a probability that has soared to 96.6%. There is a high likelihood of an additional 50 to 75 basis points cut within the year, which means there could be 2 to 3 more rate cuts. Why are market expectations for a rate cut so high? Mainly due to increasing downside risks in the U.S. labor market; although inflation still exists, it is within an acceptable range. The Federal Reserve needs to find ways to stimulate the economy, and cutting interest rates is a commonly used method.

Recently, several officials from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee have spoken about the outlook for inflation and interest rate changes, which has stirred quite a reaction in the financial circles. Current data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 89.6%, indicating that the possibility of a rate cut is quite significant.
Alberto Musalem, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve, said that the U.S. labor market faces increasing downside risks, and the weak real estate market is also dragging down the economy. He also feels that the current policy interest rate is moderately restrictive, and that the current fully employed labor market and core inflation rate are aligned, although the core inflation rate is still nearly one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. He predicts that the labor market will gradually cool down, and the inflation rate will converge towards 2% by the second half of 2026, but he also emphasized that there is considerable uncertainty about this trend, and that inflation above the target may be more persistent.

Brothers in the crypto world, isn’t the recent market of this big cake making everyone dizzy? This trend is simply like riding an "N-shaped roller coaster", it’s thrilling! A few days ago, the bulls were celebrating like it was New Year’s, charging ahead, but before long, they were ruthlessly pressed down by the bears, truly a case of "strong as a tiger when rising, timid as a mouse when falling", it’s really distressing.
Let's take a look at this 1-hour K-line chart, the trend is like watching a movie. From 3 PM yesterday to 1 AM, it made a super standard "N" shaped rise, the bulls were so aggressive at that time, clearing all obstacles, leaving the bears lost. I estimate many bears were hiding in corners crying. But who would have thought, after 2 AM, the plot took a big turn, the price plummeted like riding a slide, as if suddenly pulled by a mysterious force, gravity seemingly doubled.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been extremely volatile. Just today, as of now, the price is $110668.43, which is a drop of $22.13811 compared to the previous day, a decrease of 0.02%. From the recent 4-hour candlestick chart, the price trajectory resembles a roller coaster. Compared to yesterday at 8 a.m., it had a slight increase, then a slight decrease at noon, and has rebounded compared to 4 p.m. yesterday, but has dropped compared to 4 p.m. the day before. Moreover, the last candlestick is a bearish candle, with the closing price lower than the opening price, indicating that the bearish forces have been slightly stronger during this period.
Looking at the trading volume, it has recently decreased, and when prices rise, the trading volume falls, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. Analyzing the MACD indicator, there is no obvious trend in the current market; the MACD histogram remains positive but is gradually shortening, suggesting that the bullish strength is diminishing. The KDJ indicator shows no golden cross or death cross, with a KDJ value of 92, indicating an overbought state. Additionally, the value of MA10 is greater than that of MA30, indicating that the overall market is in a volatile state.

At two in the morning, my phone vibrated. I opened the chat window in the circle, and fan Xiao Hai sent me a screenshot — 50x leverage trading PEPE perpetual, in just ten minutes, went from a profit of 28% to a loss of 82%.
I didn't spout the usual nonsense of 'don't be sad,' I just replied: 'First, understand the pain, then think about how to turn things around.'
Actually, a few years ago, I was also sitting in this same darkness. At that time, a trading expert handed me an old book with a very straightforward title: (Only those who understand loss can become winners). He told me, 'Don't rush to add to your position; first, fix your mind.'

Staring at the numbers in my exchange account, I was stunned for a full three minutes—2000U. This amount, which once seemed 'not enough for a single swing trade,' now represented all the capital I had left in the crypto world.
Months of scenes flashed by like a revolving lantern: following so-called 'masters' to chase highs and sell lows, going all in on popular coins, holding onto trades with the fantasy of 'it will rebound' as the market fell, and even continuously increasing positions to break even… until my account balance shrank repeatedly from five digits to four, leaving just this lonely 2000U.
Strangely, at that moment, I didn't crash my phone or mock myself with 'I deserve this'; instead, I experienced an unprecedented calm. It was as if the person who had been pushed by the market finally stopped after hitting a wall and began to seriously think: where did I go wrong?

In the cryptocurrency world, exploring wealth upgrade doesn’t require rushing too fast. Finding the right direction and maintaining the pace can lead to steadier progress. The following 9 practical insights are more like 'heartfelt reminders' from someone who has been there, helping you avoid the common pitfalls faced by beginners, and gradually approaching the goal from 10,000 to 1,000,000:

1. Don’t be greedy with a small capital, once a day is enough: For a capital of less than 100,000, the focus should be on 'stability' rather than 'quantity.' Concentrate on one main market trend each day, make careful judgments before taking action, which is far more solid than frequent buying and selling, as preserving the capital is the foundation for future profits.

Recently, friends in the crypto world have been actively discussing the impact of the September interest rate cut on Bitcoin (BTC). Today, let's talk about this matter that everyone is concerned about.
Under the expectation of an interest rate cut, Bitcoin has already shown some signs of strength.
Since mid-August, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September have been rising, and the price of Bitcoin has skyrocketed, briefly surpassing $124,000, reaching an all-time high. So why does the market expect a rate cut and Bitcoin rises? The reason is simple: a rate cut means more money in the market and lower borrowing costs. This extra money needs to find a place to invest, and high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin tend to attract investors' attention. When everyone starts buying Bitcoin, the price naturally rises. It's like a market where suddenly there are more people buying apples; the price of apples will certainly go up. Looking at the previous situation, on September 19, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut. As soon as the news broke, Bitcoin quickly surged from around $60,000 to nearly $61,357, and although there was a pullback, it soon broke through the $62,000 mark again. This indicates that Bitcoin is very sensitive to interest rate cut news, and a rate cut can indeed stimulate Bitcoin's price to rise in the short term.