The Overvaluation of XRP: Ripple's Unfinished Cross-Border Payment Revolution and the Future Forecast of RLUSD
1. The situation of XRP being overvalued Currently, the price of XRP is mainly affected by market speculation and Ripple's legal battles, lacking support from actual applications: Market demand: Although Ripple's cross-border payment service has made progress, its actual market share is less than 0.01%, affecting XRP's actual demand. Supply pressure: Ripple releases a large amount of XRP every quarter, increasing market supply and suppressing long-term prices. Ecological development is limited: Compared to Ethereum's DeFi and NFT ecosystems, the XRP ecosystem is still concentrated in payment scenarios, with limited market recognition. Conclusion: In the short term, the XRP price is mainly driven by market sentiment and is considered to be at risk of overvaluation. If Ripple fails to significantly expand application scenarios, XRP may face a pullback.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has explicitly stated in an interview that he will not invest in XRP and explained his reasons. He believes that compared to Bitcoin, XRP poses a greater risk, particularly regarding its centralized nature and legal and regulatory uncertainty. Even though a U.S. court ruled that XRP is not a security, Saylor still believes that XRP carries 'Counterparty Risk' because it is dominated by Ripple, which contradicts the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.
Differences Between Centralized and Decentralized Currencies 1. Centralized Currency (e.g., XRP): • Control: Usually controlled by a single institution or company (like Ripple Labs), which can influence the currency's issuance, technological updates, and other decisions. • Potential Risks: Being under the control of a specific entity may bring manipulation risks or instability due to policy changes. • Regulatory Issues: Due to its centralized nature, it may be viewed similarly to traditional financial instruments (like securities), hence subjected to stricter legal scrutiny. 2. Decentralized Currency (e.g., Bitcoin): • Distributed Governance: Operates through global nodes and miners, with no single entity able to fully control its operations. • Censorship Resistance: More aligned with the original intention of blockchain, which is an independent monetary system free from central authority. • Fixed Supply: For instance, Bitcoin has a supply cap of 21 million, which reduces inflation risk and enhances its value storage function.
Michael Saylor emphasizes that Bitcoin's design makes it 'Digital Capital,' the most reliable asset that can withstand the volatility of the crypto market. He believes that the legal and regulatory risks associated with XRP make it unsuitable as part of a long-term investment.
The recent sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market can be attributed mainly to US policy adjustments, poor performance of global stock markets and uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy signals. First, US President Trump recently announced that he would impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China. This move has triggered market concerns about the escalation of the trade war and economic recession, causing investors to turn to safe-haven assets and sell off risky assets in large quantities. , such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to Reuters, Bitcoin once slipped to around $91,000, showing the high sensitivity of the crypto market to such policy risks.
Secondly, global stock markets have performed poorly recently, especially U.S. stock index futures, which generally fell at the opening, further widening investors' risk aversion towards highly leveraged risky assets. Since cryptocurrencies are closely related to stock market capital flows, when traditional financial markets are affected by negative news, the crypto market is also difficult to remain immune and a chain sell-off occurs.
In addition, the monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve in its recent meetings also weighed on market sentiment. Although the market widely expects a rate cut, Federal Reserve officials have remained cautious about the economic outlook and signaled that future rate cuts may be limited or even slowed. This has weakened market expectations for improved liquidity, undermined investors' confidence in high-risk assets, and further exacerbated the downward pressure on the crypto market.
Taking all the above factors into consideration, the rising global risks caused by the US trade protectionism measures, coupled with the weakening of traditional stock markets and the signal of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, have jointly prompted the cryptocurrency market to enter a round of violent selling cycle. In the face of market fluctuations, investors should strengthen risk management and prudently adjust asset allocation to cope with uncertainties that may persist in the future.
Ripple's fourth quarter report emphasizes only the value of XRP
1. The main reason Ripple selectively focuses on the value of XRP 1. Responding to short-term market anxiety - XRP saw a significant surge in 2023 due to a partial victory in the SEC lawsuit but fell back to the $0.6 range in the fourth quarter impacted by 'capital diversion from Bitcoin spot ETF'. Investors are more focused on price fluctuations rather than long-term business indicators. - Ripple needs to stabilize market confidence, for instance, emphasizing the lock-up mechanism of XRP custody accounts (releasing 1 billion XRP per month) to avoid panic selling. 2. Avoiding legal risks - The SEC lawsuit has not yet fully concluded (entering the remedial phase in April 2025), and excessive promotion of ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) and other businesses may be viewed by regulators as 'inducing the market', increasing the risk of fines.
Ripple and the U.S. Strategic Reserve Bitcoin (SBR) Conflict
1. Ripple's Political Lobbying and Bitcoin Community Accusations - Ripple is accused of spending millions of dollars to lobby U.S. politicians in an attempt to obstruct the SBR plan focused solely on Bitcoin, while promoting a 'diversified crypto reserve' that includes XRP. - Bitcoin supporters (such as Riot Platforms executive Pierre Rochard) criticize Ripple's actions as an effort to promote its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) strategy and undermine Bitcoin's dominance.
2. Fundamental Discrepancies in Technology and Philosophy - Decentralization Controversy: The XRP ledger employs centralized nodes (UNL), contrasting with Bitcoin's Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism, which is criticized for violating the core spirit of blockchain. - Token Distribution Issues: The 100 billion pre-mined XRP mechanism (Ripple Labs controls over 50% of circulation) is seen as a violation of fairness principles.
3. Economic Interests and Regulatory Games - Ripple's motivation to promote diversified reserves is believed to be aimed at enhancing XRP's market valuation and liquidity (e.g., XRP ETF applications), which directly benefits its financial condition. - The lawsuit with the SEC is not yet fully resolved (involving whether XRP is a security), and Ripple is trying to reduce regulatory risks through political lobbying.
4. Industry Impact and Policy Direction - If the U.S. government adopts a diversified reserve plan, XRP may benefit, but the Bitcoin community has already mobilized opposition (such as legislative lobbying). - The Trump administration reportedly negotiated with Ripple to establish a national reserve fund for 'XRP, Solana, USDC' to supplement Bitcoin reserves.
5. Market Reactions and Future Risks - In the short term, the controversy intensifies XRP price volatility (dropping to $2.99 on January 27), while the long-term outlook depends on policy outcomes and technological developments. - Ripple faces legal risks (SEC lawsuit) and tax disputes, which may impact its market trustworthiness.
Conclusion The conflict between Ripple and Bitcoin's strategic reserves reflects the struggle between 'business interests' and 'decentralization ideals' in the crypto industry. Ripple's political lobbying and technical structure controversies make it a primary target of criticism from Bitcoin supporters, while regulatory uncertainty remains the greatest risk for the future.
Analysis of strategic motivations and industry impact of Ripple’s political donations
During the 2024-2025 U.S. political cycle, Ripple and its executives have become the core driver of political influence in the crypto industry through large-scale political donations and lobbying activities. Its motives not only involve corporate survival interests, but also reflect the deep game between the encryption industry and the traditional regulatory system. The following analyzes the strategic logic and industry background of Ripple’s political donations from multiple perspectives.
1. Coping with regulatory pressure: alleviating SEC litigation and policy uncertainty Since 2020, Ripple’s lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been pending for a long time, and the dispute over XRP’s legal status has directly affected its market performance and business expansion. In order to change this situation, Ripple regards political donations as “the key to breaking the situation”:
Ripple does not actively make political donations for the sake of the entire cryptocurrency. Everything is still based on the interests of the company... Are you sure you want to support this coin? Basically, everyone’s XRP is being used as bribes to benefit the company’s development.
Comments by Pierre Rochard, who pointed out that Ripple/XRP is the biggest obstacle to the so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)” and accused Ripple of investing a lot of money in lobbying politicians to try to prevent the advancement of this plan. He also mentioned that Ripple used similar tactics to attack Bitcoin mining during the Biden administration, with the goal of protecting its own market narrative and promoting central bank digital currencies (CBDC) built on its platform.
Possible causes and conspiracies: 1. Protect market position and interests: Ripple likely believes that the SBR initiative will further solidify Bitcoin’s dominance of the cryptocurrency market, which is a threat to competing coins such as XRP. By blocking the scheme, they seek to protect XRP’s market position as a solution for payments and cross-border transactions. 2. Promote central bank digital currency (CBDC): Ripple has long partnered with many central banks to promote its blockchain technology as the basis for CBDCs. If the SBR initiative is successful, it could lead to more countries favoring Bitcoin over XRP-based solutions. Therefore, they may hope to reduce the threat of Bitcoin through political influence. 3. Opposition to Bitcoin mining: Ripple has long criticized the high energy consumption of Bitcoin mining and promoted its own low-energy advantages. By attacking Bitcoin mining, they seek to create a negative image of Bitcoin and further enhance the relative attractiveness of XRP.
Summarize: Ripple’s actions may be in response to competitive pressure, in an attempt to prevent other cryptocurrencies or technologies from threatening its market narrative and business interests. But these actions may also trigger criticism of market manipulation and lobbying practices.
XRP is miserable! No matter how much political donations you give, it’s useless. Trump never mentioned ripple once! Trump’s sons also chose Solana. What do you think, smart people?
Non-profit financial markets organization Better Markets submitted an "amicus brief" to the court in support of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple. The organization believes that XRP meets the criteria of the Howey test and should be considered a security. They emphasized that investors purchasing these securities on a trading platform did not change their nature, arguing that the district court’s ruling lacked support from the statutory definition of securities and conflicted with the Supreme Court’s definition in Howey. Additionally, Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, stated that the SEC has a 90% chance of winning in its appeal of the XRP lawsuit against Ripple.
These views indicate that Better Markets supports the SEC’s position that XRP should be considered a security and recommends that the court overturn the previous ruling.
✅XRP fake ETF bullish news ✅No official support from any big organization ✅The American-made RLUSD stablecoin is destined to lose to USDC ✅SEC lawsuit will continue for another three years
Circle vs. Ripple: A Major Showdown of Domestic Stablecoin Companies in the U.S.
Circle Advantages:
1. USDC Stablecoin: USDC, issued by Circle, is a stablecoin backed by the U.S. dollar, which has already gained widespread market acceptance and usage. The stability and transparency of USDC make it an important player in the digital currency market. 2. Regulatory Compliance: Circle has been committed to complying with U.S. financial regulatory requirements and has collaborated with multiple financial institutions and regulatory agencies, which gives USDC an advantage in compliance. This is particularly important under the Trump administration's emphasis on rule of law and compliance. 3. Partners: Circle has partnerships with large financial institutions and payment service providers like Coinbase and Visa, which helps promote the usage and adoption of USDC. The support from these partners enhances USDC's market position and credibility.
On January 18, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump officially announced the launch of a meme coin named after himself, $TRUMP , on his social media platform Truth Social. In the announcement, he stated: "My new official Trump meme coin has been launched. Buy $TRUMP now!"
When asked about his understanding of the coin, Trump responded: "I don't know if it will be profitable, I don't know much about it, only that it is very successful." This statement sparked widespread attention and skepticism from the market and media.
Market performance of $TRUMP coin:
According to reports, within just one hour of its launch, the market capitalization of $TRUMP coin quickly surpassed $3 billion, attracting a large number of investors. The next day, the fully diluted market capitalization of $TRUMP coin even briefly exceeded $80 billion. However, with market volatility, the price of the coin then experienced drastic fluctuations.
Criticism within the industry:
The issuance of the coin by Trump and his wife Melania has sparked intense controversy in the cryptocurrency field. Many industry insiders have pointed out that this move could damage the overall credibility of the crypto market and attract further attention from regulatory bodies. Additionally, Trump's extremely limited understanding of the coin he issued has raised doubts about his motives and sense of responsibility.
A cryptocurrency industry analyst commented: "This is a highly speculative act, perhaps more about promoting a personal image than truly advancing the development of cryptocurrency technology."
More experts are concerned that this behavior could lead to excessive hype among retail investors, ultimately creating an asset bubble that would have deeper negative impacts on the market.
Potential impact of meme coins:
Although the launch of $TRUMP coin has injected some liquidity into the market in the short term, its speculative nature and Trump's own words and actions may lead more people to doubt the cryptocurrency market, further triggering intervention and scrutiny from regulatory agencies. #加密市场回调 #币圈翻车日记:我的2024坑爹时刻 #加密友好Uyeda接掌SEC $SOL $ETH $TRUMP
The impact of Trump’s presidency on the cryptocurrency market has shown multiple dynamics. In the past 12 hours, the market has experienced significant volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend:
Market Reaction Analysis: • Bullish Factors: • Trump expressed his support for cryptocurrencies during the campaign and promised to reduce relevant regulations, a stance that has continued after he took office. • Bitcoin's price reached an all-time high of over $109,000 on the day of Trump's inauguration, reflecting investors' optimistic expectations regarding the new government's cryptocurrency policies. • Bearish Factors: • The personal cryptocurrencies launched by Trump and his family (such as $TRUMP and $MELANIA) have raised concerns in the market about potential conflicts of interest and ethical issues, which could lead to increased scrutiny from regulators. • After Trump's inauguration ceremony, Bitcoin's price experienced a pullback, reminding investors that even in a supportive policy environment, market volatility risks still exist.
Summary:
After Trump took office, the cryptocurrency market was influenced by his supportive policies, showing an upward trend in the short term. However, concerns about potential ethical and regulatory issues may affect market sentiment in the medium to long term. Investors should closely monitor policy developments and market reactions, operating with caution.
After Trump returned to the White House, the cryptocurrency market not only failed to calm down, but also experienced significant growth. Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high on the eve of Trump's inauguration, topping $109,000, a sign of investor optimism about the new administration's cryptocurrency policies. 
During his campaign, Trump promised to make the United States the "global cryptocurrency capital" and planned to establish a national Bitcoin reserve. These measures further enhanced market confidence. 
In addition, Trump and his family launched personal cryptocurrencies such as $TRUMP and $MELANIA, and the market capitalization of these tokens quickly surged, reflecting the strong market interest in such assets. 
Taken together, Trump’s policies and actions seem to have prompted further development in the cryptocurrency market, without the expected calming trend.
According to a report by Unchained on January 16, 2025, there are rumors that US President Trump is considering including US-created cryptocurrencies such as XRP and SOL in the national reserve. Affected by this, XRP prices rose by 10% in 24 hours, reaching a new seven-year high of approximately $3.40. However, three sources told Unchained that this market-driven rumor may not be true. In addition, the report stated that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had encouraged Trump to include other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin in potential cryptocurrency reserves, but it was not confirmed whether Trump accepted this suggestion. It is worth noting that Axios reported on January 15 that Trump had accused an unnamed company of not supporting him at a critical moment and may have supported Kamala Harris instead. Two sources told Unchained that the company involved in the conversation is Ripple. However, a Ripple spokesperson denied these rumors, calling them “completely untrue.”
In addition, according to a report by PANews on October 20, 2023, Ripple has been accused of trying to influence U.S. legislation through lobbying to make the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the de facto cryptocurrency regulator in the United States. Many crypto industry professionals believe that the CFTC takes a softer approach to regulation compared to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, these actions could be viewed as attempts to monetarily influence political decisions, adversely affecting Ripple’s reputation.
Analysis of the SEC's appeal against Ripple on 1/16: Disadvantages and Impacts
1. Key points of the SEC's appeal.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially appealed against Ripple on January 16, mainly targeting the nature of XRP in the secondary market (i.e., retail trading), attempting to overturn part of the previous court's rulings. The SEC believes: • Ripple's public promotion of XRP has led investors to expect appreciation, which should be considered part of an 'investment contract.' • The court previously ruled that Ripple's institutional sales were illegal, but retail trading does not count as securities. The SEC requests a reevaluation of this part, arguing that the logic of the ruling is inconsistent.
This appeal does not fully overturn the case but challenges the judge's interpretation of the Howey test (the standard for determining securities).
1/17 Crypto Inauguration Party: Ripple’s Role and Challenges
background: This crypto-circle event brings together major projects, but Ripple’s focus is not only on technology demonstrations, but also on how to deal with the challenges posed by regulation.
Ripple’s roles and disadvantages: 1. Legal shadow: The SEC lawsuit has not yet ended, and Ripple has changed from a technology leader to a "resistance representative." 2. Lack of market confidence: Institutional investors are waiting and watching, and the circulation of XRP in the mainstream market is still limited. 3. The regulatory label is difficult to remove: Even if some of the cases are successful, the "securities dispute" will still affect its global image. 4. Increased competitive pressure: Other payment projects such as Stellar and Circle are expanding rapidly, threatening Ripple’s market position.
in conclusion: At the inauguration party, Ripple needs to demonstrate not just its technology, but its determination to regain trust in the market. This is not only a technical battle, but also an image reshaping challenge.
Case Background • Time: December 2020 • Core Dispute: SEC accused Ripple of unregistered issuance of XRP, raising $1.3 billion, constituting illegal securities issuance; Ripple rebutted that XRP is a cryptocurrency and not a security, criticizing the lack of regulatory clarity.
Progress and Outcome • July 2023: The court ruled that the sale of XRP to institutional investors was illegal, but there was no such dispute for retail sales. • Setback: SEC's appeal application did not succeed as planned, and a new appeal brief must be submitted by January 15, 2025.
Risk and Disadvantage Analysis 1. Prolonged litigation, market confidence unstable • Long-term legal battles impact XRP price trends and the advancement of Ripple's business plans. 2. High regulatory uncertainty • Despite partial victories, XRP has not fully shed the “security label,” and international regulatory challenges remain. 3. SEC may counterattack at any time • Although facing obstacles, SEC may still reorganize its strategy and continue to push for higher-level legal actions. 4. Market holds a wait-and-see attitude • The lawsuit is not completely over, and mainstream platforms remain cautious about the full circulation of XRP.
Conclusion
Although Ripple has gained a temporary advantage, the future remains uncertain; January 15 is a critical moment for whether the SEC will continue to exert pressure or let go. Investors need to stay alert and respond cautiously to the risks posed by market fluctuations and regulatory changes.
According to the latest information, the United States will release non-farm employment data tonight. The market expects about 140,000 new jobs, slightly lower than the previous value of 142,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. 
Nonfarm payroll data is an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy and has a significant impact on global financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Cryptocurrency Market View: • Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data: If employment growth exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining or tightening monetary policy, causing the dollar to strengthen and traditional financial markets to rise. However, this could weigh on the cryptocurrency market, as investors may shift towards higher-yielding traditional assets and reduce their allocation to crypto assets. • Non-agricultural data in line with expectations: If the data is in line with expectations, the market may maintain its current trend with less volatility. The cryptocurrency market may continue to be affected by internal factors, such as technological developments, regulatory trends, etc. • Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data: If the employment data falls short of expectations, it may trigger concerns about an economic slowdown and prompt the Federal Reserve to consider easing policy. That could weaken the dollar and boost demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, pushing their prices higher.
It should be noted that the cryptocurrency market is affected by many factors, and non-agricultural data is just one of them. Investors should comprehensively consider factors such as macroeconomic indicators, policy changes, and market sentiment, and make prudent decisions.
Please note that investing involves risks and it is recommended to consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.#Bitcoinprice trend analysis#Cryptomarket correction #美国非农数据即将公布 $ETH $SUI $BTC #AIXBT、CGPT、COOKIE将上线币安 #美国非农数据即将公布 #AI概念币强势反弹
I see the liquidity of RLUSD, much of it is reported by Ripple itself... this liquidity of Ethereum... who will actually buy it? Application scenario 0