1. The main reason Ripple selectively focuses on the value of XRP
1. Responding to short-term market anxiety
- XRP saw a significant surge in 2023 due to a partial victory in the SEC lawsuit but fell back to the $0.6 range in the fourth quarter impacted by 'capital diversion from Bitcoin spot ETF'. Investors are more focused on price fluctuations rather than long-term business indicators.
- Ripple needs to stabilize market confidence, for instance, emphasizing the lock-up mechanism of XRP custody accounts (releasing 1 billion XRP per month) to avoid panic selling.
2. Avoiding legal risks
- The SEC lawsuit has not yet fully concluded (entering the remedial phase in April 2025), and excessive promotion of ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) and other businesses may be viewed by regulators as 'inducing the market', increasing the risk of fines.
- Strategic silence: Ripple's legal team may advise reducing business detail disclosures to prevent report content from becoming evidence in SEC charges.
3. Transformation of business focus
- Ripple has recently transformed from a 'payment protocol company' to an 'XRP ecosystem operator', acquiring Metaco (custody technology) and promoting the upgrade of XRPL's AMM features, all aimed at enhancing the financial instrument properties of XRP.
- Business is deeply tied to XRP: ODL cross-border payments and RippleNet bank collaborations both require XRP as a liquidity reserve, making it impossible to discuss business progress independently of XRP.
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2. Does Ripple 'only have XRP' left? An analysis of the current status of core business.
Although the report does not detail traditional business, Ripple has not abandoned its core scenarios, but instead integrates XRP as a hub strategy:
1. The symbiotic relationship between ODL business and XRP
- The global trading volume of ODL directly depends on the market liquidity of XRP. The report's mention of 'daily on-chain transaction volume of XRP at $500 million' indirectly reflects the activity level of ODL (such as the remittance collaboration with MFS Africa).
- Ripple summarizes 'emerging market expansion', with details hidden in XRP data.
2. Compliance prioritization strategy
- Attracting institutional investors through Metaco's custody services, the report emphasizes the transparency of XRP custody, paving the way for bank clients.
- Progress in RippleNet cooperation (such as the number of bank clients) involves commercial confidentiality and intentionally downplays the sensitivity during the lawsuit.
3. Long-term layout of the XRPL ecosystem
- The report mentions the upgrade of XRPL's AMM and CBDC tokenization plans, both requiring XRP as the underlying fuel (such as burning XRP for NFT transactions), reinforcing the narrative that 'XRP is the infrastructure'.
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3. Potential risks and market concerns
1. Risks of excessive business concentration
- If the SEC restricts Ripple from selling XRP to financial institutions, ODL business may shrink, while the XRPL ecosystem has not yet generated sufficient income as a substitute.
- Compared to competitors: Stellar (XLM) has shifted towards humanitarian payments, Circle (USDC) has expanded tokenized government bonds, while Ripple's 'single strategy for XRP' has a lower fault tolerance.
2. Controversies in token economics
- Ripple Labs still holds 45 billion XRP (accounting for 45% of the total supply), and while the lock-up mechanism for custody accounts alleviates selling pressure, the lack of a public future unlocking plan raises suspicions of 'price manipulation'.
Conclusion: XRP is both a 'shield' and a 'weakness'.
Ripple shapes the value of XRP as an indicator of business health through the report, avoiding regulatory and confidentiality restrictions to convey confidence. In the short term, it can stabilize market sentiment, but in the long term, it needs to prove the irreplaceability of XRP in real scenarios (such as preventing ODL from being replaced by stablecoins).
Key observation points for 2025:
- Final ruling of the SEC lawsuit (after April)
- Can XRPL ecosystem applications (such as tokenized assets) scale?
- The level of acceptance of XRP custody by institutional investors