币聪分析

前天还在高位喊你宝贝
昨天开始冷淡，
今天直接拉黑你，还发了条朋友圈：
自由真好

散户：？？？
鲸鱼：谢谢惠顾。
机构：多好啊，又打折了。

Current Bitcoin 112,277, down about 1.34% in the past 24 hours, with a high of 114,004 and a low of about 112,277 during the day. The price has retreated from recent highs, and volatility is becoming more active.

A long-term holder, referred to as an 'old whale,' recently sold about 80,000 BTC, worth approximately 900 million to 960 million USD, cashing out after holding for over a decade. Despite the significant selling pressure, the market only briefly dipped by about 1%, quickly rebounding, indicating increased market liquidity and enhanced institutional absorption capacity.

This selling mainly came from 'new whales'—large holders who have accumulated their positions recently. They took profits in batches after Bitcoin broke through approximately 120,000 USD, with total market cap profits in the range of 600 million to 800 million USD.

Operational Suggestions
If Bitcoin falls below 112,000: consider entering with a small position, setting a stop-loss around 110,000;
If the price rebounds above 115,000: can consider lightly chasing long, with a target focusing on 118,000 to 120,000;
For long-term holders: inclined to continue holding, it is recommended to keep the overall position within 15% of total assets.
#BTC #ETH

Bitcoin may start a mid-term adjustment from next week, with a retracement target possibly pointing to the 110,000 area.

From the current weekly structure, Bitcoin may be at the tail end of the fifth wave extension. Although it is still within an upward channel, the trend has shown obvious signs of fatigue, with both the magnitude and intensity of price increases not matching the previous main uptrend, indicating that market momentum is weakening, and there is insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, posing a risk of overdrawn bullish momentum.

On the monthly level, the current price is approaching the upper resistance area. If there are typical top signals in the future, such as a large bearish candlestick engulfing after a continuous rise, or a 'false breakout followed by a quick retreat' structure after a peak, it often indicates the formation of a temporary top. Given that the current position is close to historical resistance levels, investors should be wary of increasing reversal risks.

From the perspective of macro liquidity, potential pressure should not be ignored. With the implementation of the U.S. fiscal expansion policy, the new debt ceiling will force the Treasury to issue a large amount of government bonds in the coming months, with expected market liquidity absorption reaching up to 480 billion dollars, close to 15% of the current total market value of global crypto assets. Against the backdrop of tightening dollar liquidity, the crypto market may come under pressure, especially high-sensitivity assets such as Bitcoin.

In summary, based on technical and macroeconomic analysis, if there is no significant positive support, Bitcoin may enter a mid-term adjustment cycle starting next week, with the first support range expected to be between 110,000 and 112,000. Further declines will require observing changes in market sentiment and external capital flows.

For medium to long-term holders, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs at this stage. It is a more prudent strategy to patiently wait for clearer technical repair signals or signs of capital stabilization.

#美国加征关税 #BTC

The current price of Bitcoin is maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations between 113300 and 114000, showing an overall gradual upward trend. In the short term, although the market has not seen a significant breakout, bullish momentum still has continuity, and the structure of strong fluctuations has not yet been broken.

Bitcoin:
If the market tests the support level between 112600-113100 during the day, consider gradually entering long positions. Conservative traders may wait for confirmation after stabilization before entering. The short-term target can be observed in the 114000-114500 range. If it can effectively stabilize above 114500, there may be an opportunity to challenge the previous high of 116500.

Ethereum:
The current trend is strongly correlated with Bitcoin. If the price falls back to around 3440-3460, it can be considered a buying opportunity. The initial rebound target is set at the 3530-3550 range, and after a breakout, it is expected to further test the resistance level at 3650. For short-term operations, it is advisable to set stop-loss orders to avoid reverse impacts after breaking the range.
#BTC
Overall, although the market trend is stable, it is still influenced by macro sentiment and liquidity. It is crucial to avoid chasing highs and killing lows; following the trend with low buys and high sells remains a relatively prudent approach at this stage. For short-term rhythm control, hourly Bollinger Bands and MACD can be referenced to assist in determining buy and sell points.

Don't blindly bottom fish yet!

Bitcoin is currently showing a bearish trend on the daily chart with increased selling volume, opening around 115700 in the morning and exhibiting a weak trend. On the four-hour chart, the bearish momentum has intensified close to its peak, and in the short term, the support level around 114000 is worth monitoring. On the hourly level, although the bearish pressure has somewhat subsided, the rebound volume is not strong, and there is some short-term resistance around 116000, resulting in a generally weak oscillation.

In terms of operation, if Bitcoin retraces without breaking the 114000-114500 range, it may be considered to buy at low levels, with the initial target set at the 115600-116500 range. Overall, it is not suitable to chase after price increases now; rather, it is more about relying on support for low buys to anticipate short rebounds.

As for Ethereum, after a short-term adjustment, it has also entered a critical support zone. Pay attention to whether it holds above 3530-3560, as there are also opportunities for low buys, with targets looking towards the 3680-3750 range.
Currently, market sentiment is cautious, and the short-term bullish approach can still be attempted, but operations should control the rhythm, focusing on quick entries and exits to prevent bearish pressure from taking a toll at the end of the trading session.
#BTC

The MACD shows a clear top divergence, with the fast and slow lines having turned downwards. The green bars below the zero line are gradually enlarging, and bearish momentum is continuously accumulating. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish signal is more evident, with consecutive green bars deepening, and the overall structure has firmly taken on a bearish trend, with the market rhythm firmly controlled by the bears.

Looking at the hourly chart, last night the price briefly broke through the lower Bollinger Band. Although there has been a slight rebound now, from a multi-timeframe perspective, the rebound seems more like an opportunity to 'charge' the bears. There are layers of pressure above; do not guess the bottom easily, as it will be difficult to see a clear reversal signal in the short term.

Operational strategy suggestions:

For Bitcoin, consider gradually laying out short positions if there is a rebound up to the 118500~119000 range, targeting around 117500, with a stop-loss set above 119300.
For Ethereum, the 3880~3900 area remains a strong resistance level. If it reaches that level, it is still suitable to short on the rise, targeting the 3770 line, with a stop-loss set above 3920.

Currently, the overall market rhythm is becoming cautious, and trading volume is shrinking. This type of volume decline indicates that funds are leaning towards a wait-and-see attitude in the short term, rather than panic selling, making it easier to see a 'slow decline' market. For the bulls to reorganize a decent counterattack, they need to first stabilize around the short-term moving averages. This current rebound can only be regarded as a technical correction, with the main direction still leaning bearish; do not act rashly. #BTC

Last night, there were some bearish news regarding the pancake, which put some pressure on the short-term trend, but the overall direction remains relatively stable.

The price has tested around 116000 several times without breaking below, indicating that the support in this area is quite strong, and the short-term bottom is basically confirmed. The overall structure still maintains an upward channel. Now, it is in a high-level sideways phase, which can be considered a natural adjustment of market sentiment, so there is no need to worry too much.

Currently, the 4-hour chart is approaching the middle track, with trading volume maintaining a moderate release, and the overall trend is still under control, with the bullish pattern temporarily unchanged.

Trading suggestion: Go long between 117500-118000, targeting 119500.
#BTC

Currently, the market is still in a stage of fluctuation and consolidation. On the surface, it seems stable, but in reality, it is moving slowly without any clear direction. Recently, this wave of rebound looks like it has some improvement, with prices occasionally spiking up, but if you look closely, the trading volume has not increased, indicating that there is not much real money entering the market.
It’s like a car running low on fuel; it seems like it can still drive, but its power is running out. This kind of rebound is more like a correction in the downward trend and cannot be considered a trend reversal. Especially on the four-hour chart, although there have been several consecutive bullish candles, the volume is not supportive, and it can't hold up for long. Once the bulls lose strength, it can easily dip again.

Overall, the big picture still favors the bears. Both the highs and lows are moving downwards; this pattern is very typical— the downward channel has not been completed. Don’t be misled by the small bullish candles in front of you; chasing the rise easily leads to being trapped at high positions.
Suggestions:
Tonight's strategy remains unchanged: around 118500-119000 can gradually build short positions, with risk control set above 119800, and the initial target downwards is around 116000. Pay attention to the rhythm, and don’t be greedy.
Supplement:
The current market is not suitable for heavy positions; it’s more suitable for small positions with quick entries and exits, focusing on short-term trading.
If the price cannot break through the 119000 resistance zone with significant volume, it indicates weakness in the upward attack, and short positions can be bolder.
If it unexpectedly breaks above 120000 and increases volume, you should promptly cut losses or change strategies to avoid being caught in a reversal.
Short-term market conditions change rapidly, so it is recommended to closely monitor the market rhythm, act less and observe more; it’s better to miss out than to make mistakes.

Yesterday morning at the 119700 line, a short position was suggested with a target of 117600, successfully reached with a gain of 2000 points; after a low point, it was judged that there would be a rebound opportunity, and in the afternoon it surged to 119000, gaining another 1400 points. One short and one long, the rhythm was relatively accurate.

Currently, the trend is skewed towards extremes, and a one-sided movement is hard to sustain, making chasing highs and selling lows prone to backlash. The rhythm still needs to stick to support and resistance levels for short-term trading.

As we approach the end of the month, on-chain data has piled up a bit, but there hasn't been a clear breakthrough in the trend here, so it may still depend on news coordination. Key attention should be on the resistance around 120000-120600 above, with 117000 being the critical support below. In the afternoon, the market is relatively strong, suggesting a light long position mainly between 118000-118500. If it can't break through the 119700-120600 range, then consider gradually laying out short positions.

Ethereum's short position near 3900 yesterday also realized nearly 200 points of space, confirming support today at 3720, with a bullish four-hour close, stabilizing in the short term. You can follow the rhythm of Bitcoin, first looking for a long move, and then observing short opportunities when returning to around 3900.
#BTC #ETH

The pancake is just one step away from 1193. In the evening, it is advised to wait for the price to drop to the range of 1182-1177 before continuing to break above 1193!

【7.29 Ethereum Midday Market Analysis】

Last night, the Ethereum market exhibited a relatively standard oscillating upward trend. After stabilizing around the price of 3760, it began to rise slowly, with the lowest point hitting 3751.97, precisely at the support level predicted yesterday. Subsequently, the market surged, climbing all the way up to the 3819 line, creating a total movement of nearly 70 points, which aligns with expectations.

From the chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands are clearly in an expanding state, with the price having broken through the middle band and continuously operating in the middle to upper band area, indicating that the bullish trend remains dominant. However, as the current price is close to the upper Bollinger Band (around 3820), there might be a short-term pullback after a breakout, which is part of a healthy adjustment.

If it can stabilize above 3800 in the future, the market is likely to continue to test higher, with the target temporarily set at the 3860-3880 range; however, if there is weakness in the breakout and it falls below 3750, one should be cautious of possibly entering a new round of oscillation or correction to avoid getting trapped.

📌 Support Reference Level: 3760-3780
📌 Resistance Reference Level: 3820-3860
📌 Short-term Strategy: Focus on buying on dips, be mindful of taking profits on highs, and manage rhythm and position well.

The market is still in motion; do not blindly chase after price increases. Patience to wait for opportunities and holding onto logic is key. Coin Analysis #巨鲸动向

Last night's market felt a bit like a roller coaster, with prices fluctuating downward all the way, reaching a low of 117388 in the early morning. After that, the bulls held their breath and tried to push up, but unfortunately, they lacked strength and couldn't create any big waves. Now the price has slightly warmed up, hovering around 118300, feeling like it's catching its breath.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price is still trapped in a downward channel, with bears clearly holding the upper hand. The candlesticks have been continuously closing in the red, dropping quite sharply, especially that big bearish candlestick, which directly broke through the key support level. Although there are occasional rebounds, they are all weak and haven't even climbed back to the mid-line. The support below is around 117300, and if it breaks further, it is likely to slide towards the lower Bollinger Band. The resistance above is quite strong, with the previous high of 119812 acting like a wall, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Currently, the market is still dominated by bears, and it feels like it still needs to grind down a bit more. However, if 117300 can hold, there might be a small rebound, but the overall trend is still bearish, so keep an eye on the key levels and don't be complacent.
Trading advice:
Bitcoin: Consider shorting in the range of 118800-119300, targeting around 116500.
Ethereum: You can try a short position near 3840, with a focus on the support at 3700.
(The market is constantly changing, so it's advisable to keep an eye on real-time quotes and be cautious when placing orders!)#巨鲸动向

The market has shown some signs of a downturn, but the 4000 level is still quite attractive, and it feels like it will inevitably surge at some point. Right now, shorting in the short term is still feasible, but the fundamentals of Ethereum have become so strong that it seems unreasonable. This sharp drop might just be the last opportunity to get in and aim for 4000.
Focus on around 3730; if it strongly breaks down, consider increasing short positions. The lower level of 3650 is a good entry point, still aiming for 4000.
Personal view: Ethereum has shown strong resilience recently, with network upgrades and institutional interest giving it a solid foundation. The short-term pullback might just be a breather. The market is quite volatile, and if it breaks below 3650, it might explore lower levels again, but the probability of a rebound afterward is not low. It is advisable to operate flexibly, keep an eye on trading volume, and don’t miss breakthrough or breakdown signals. #BNB创新高 #ETH重返3800

Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be trending downward, with significant selling pressure in the market, and a short-term pullback may occur. Bitcoin can be considered for a small short position around 119,100-119,600, targeting around 117,500; for Ethereum, shorting around 3,900-3,940, targeting around 3,750. However, the market changes quickly, so do not blindly chase short positions; set a stop-loss to protect yourself. If the price falls to a support level and stabilizes, there may be an opportunity for a rebound, so you can try to bottom out with a small amount, but don’t be greedy; controlling your position size is the most important thing! $BTC #BNB创新高

In trading cryptocurrencies, whether you make money depends entirely on your intellect and discipline. In the first three years, I lost over a million, but in the following years, I made back several million; every penny was earned through lessons learned. The secret of the crypto world is often repeated: 90% of retail investors trade based on news, 9% of smart people watch the movements of big players, and 1% of tough individuals directly analyze the market using moving averages.
Step one: Understand moving averages.
The daily moving average is like three old traditional Chinese medicine doctors, each with a different personality:
The 5-day line is the emergency department head, quick to react and aggressive.
The 30-day line is the internal medicine specialist, steady, managing trends.
The 60-day line is the big boss, overseeing the overall situation.
When the 5-day line suddenly rises above the 30-day and 60-day lines (crossing up), the market is about to soar, get ready to act! Conversely, if the 5-day line drops below the 30-day and 60-day lines (crossing down), don't hesitate, run quickly!
Step two: Set up a trading system, don't act rashly on impulse.
Put a note on your trading interface that says: "When moving averages clash, don't blindly join in the chaos!"
When the 5-day and 30-day lines intertwine like twisted dough, don't enter the market; it's pure luck. True players only act when all three lines are moving in the same direction.
The ups and downs of the crypto market are like riding a roller coaster, but the simpler the daily moving average strategy, the more effective it is. Skilled traders don’t show off; they act when the 5-day line breaks through and stop when the 60-day line turns.
Step three: Discipline must be ingrained in your mind.
I've seen too many people with plans that are as flimsy as tissue paper; a big fluctuation in the middle of the night scares them into tearing up their plans to wipe their sweat. The harshness of this moving average strategy lies in forcing you to become an emotionless machine—act when there is a signal, and wait patiently when there isn’t. #BNB创新高 $BTC public account Haobi Cryptocurrency Analysis

From the current market perspective, after hitting the bottom at 114900, the bulls have started to exert strength, gradually reclaiming lost ground and continuously pushing upwards in a slow and steady manner. It has now reached around 119000, with an overall strong trend, even showing signs of a breakout. However, in the short term, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the range, and if it cannot directly break through the 121000 level, it is likely to oscillate within this range. Based on this situation, one might consider shorting at high levels to test the waters; if it truly breaks the range, then follow the trend and go long.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the price has been oscillating back and forth within the range, rebounding each time it touches the bottom. Currently, the Bollinger Bands show signs of turning down after touching the top of the range, the KDJ has formed a continuous death cross, and the bullish momentum of the MACD is also somewhat diminishing. Overall, a high short strategy may be more prudent in the short term.
My view is that although the current market sentiment is somewhat bullish, there is considerable pressure at high levels, and a pullback for confirmation might occur before breaking 121000. I suggest cautious operations and controlling positions.
Recommendation: #BNB创新高
Bitcoin: Consider shorting in the 119300-120000 range, aiming for 117800-118200.
Ethereum: Try shorting in the 3900-3940 range, targeting 3760-3790. #美国与欧盟达成关税协议

Bitcoin has really taken off recently, skyrocketing to a new high of $123,000 in mid-July, and now hovering around $119,551, feeling like this surge isn't over yet. The main reason is that large institutions are buying heavily, with significant ETF inflows, and MicroStrategy is still increasing its holdings. The U.S. Congress has organized a 'Crypto Week', and policies may become more favorable, which everyone is optimistic about.
Technical and Future Outlook
Technically, $110,000 is the support level; if it drops to that point, there will be buyers; $125,000 is the resistance level, and if it breaks through, it could head straight to $130,000. The RSI is above 60, and the MACD has a golden cross, indicating a bullish short-term outlook. In the long term, experts say it could reach between $145,000 to $162,000 by the end of 2025, and possibly break $450,000 by 2030! However, the market is highly volatile, and policy changes could lead to corrections.
Investment Advice
Newbies can dollar-cost average, buying at fixed points each month; experienced traders should focus on the $110,000 and $125,000 levels, buying low and selling high, and avoid using too much leverage. Remember, Bitcoin is a gamble in the short term, but a belief in the long term. Don't let short-term fluctuations affect your mindset; there is potential for the long term!
For short-term recommendations, Bitcoin can be shorted around the 120k mark, looking down to the 118k-116k range; Ethereum can be watched around 3950, looking down to the 3900-3850 range.#BNB创新高 #