Currently, the market is still in a stage of fluctuation and consolidation. On the surface, it seems stable, but in reality, it is moving slowly without any clear direction. Recently, this wave of rebound looks like it has some improvement, with prices occasionally spiking up, but if you look closely, the trading volume has not increased, indicating that there is not much real money entering the market.
It’s like a car running low on fuel; it seems like it can still drive, but its power is running out. This kind of rebound is more like a correction in the downward trend and cannot be considered a trend reversal. Especially on the four-hour chart, although there have been several consecutive bullish candles, the volume is not supportive, and it can't hold up for long. Once the bulls lose strength, it can easily dip again.
Overall, the big picture still favors the bears. Both the highs and lows are moving downwards; this pattern is very typical— the downward channel has not been completed. Don’t be misled by the small bullish candles in front of you; chasing the rise easily leads to being trapped at high positions.
Suggestions:
Tonight's strategy remains unchanged: around 118500-119000 can gradually build short positions, with risk control set above 119800, and the initial target downwards is around 116000. Pay attention to the rhythm, and don’t be greedy.
Supplement:
The current market is not suitable for heavy positions; it’s more suitable for small positions with quick entries and exits, focusing on short-term trading.
If the price cannot break through the 119000 resistance zone with significant volume, it indicates weakness in the upward attack, and short positions can be bolder.
If it unexpectedly breaks above 120000 and increases volume, you should promptly cut losses or change strategies to avoid being caught in a reversal.
Short-term market conditions change rapidly, so it is recommended to closely monitor the market rhythm, act less and observe more; it’s better to miss out than to make mistakes.
