Pandazoo研究院-惑众

The recent violent fluctuations in the price of Alpaca Coin reflect the structural dilemmas in the cryptocurrency market:
1. The liquidity of the spot market has dried up.
The current market lacks a clear mainline, and old altcoins generally face delisting risks, with extremely low depth in spot trading. The accumulation of trapped positions has led to the withdrawal of main funds, the traditional 'speculating on expectations' model has failed, and the market has fallen into a state of 'no theme to speculate on, no incremental funds' stagnation.
2. Zero-sum game on the contract battlefield.
After the spot market receded, high-leverage contracts became the main battlefield for funds. The long-short game has detached from fundamentals and evolved into a pure mutual liquidation of existing funds—strong short selling will trigger counter-attacks, and price fluctuations are extremely amplified. Under this 'gambling-style' game, the market resembles a 'cryptocurrency version of Auschwitz,' where the only survivor is the extreme financial power that has completely harvested the shorts.
3. The vicious cycle of market ecology.
Low market cap coins become shorting targets due to low pull-up costs, but shorting will attract larger funds to counterattack, forming a 'long-short strangulation' deadlock;
- The exhaustion of spot liquidity and intensified contract harvesting further leads to the collapse of market confidence, resulting in a deadlock of 'no one to接盘 for hot altcoins, mainstream coins lying flat and waiting'.
The essence of the current market is the jungle rule of 'the flow of funds determines the direction of the scythe':
For ordinary investors, holding mainstream coins in spot (staying away from high-volatility altcoins), avoiding contract leverage, is the way to survive across cycles;
Beware of any 'get-rich-quick' narratives—when the market is left with only speculation and harvesting, after the tide recedes, only the naked swimmers remain.#山寨币ETF展望

💰💰#BTC走势分析 $BTC 4 April 30th Trading Strategy

Market Analysis: Bitcoin's rebound yesterday still did not break through the upper resistance, and after being pressured, it fell back and rebounded again. There are clear support and resistance levels above and below; try to seize low long opportunities.
Trading Plan:
1. Pay attention to the resistance results around 95500—96000, chase the rise if broken, and short if pressured.
2. Pay attention to the support results around 94700—94200, stop the decline and go long if it holds, but if it breaks, monitor the support around 93500—93000.

Report yesterday's performance report to mental shareholders, ps: sol today 145 long positions have been entered $SOL #特朗普税改 $BTC

Today's Focus: Those Who Dare Not Chase AI Can Only Wait to Short
#Important Sector Analysis (4.29)

1. In the area of altcoins, the AI sector saw WLD's daily increase nearly 25%.

2. The overall market value of AI16Z has returned to over 300 million USD, and FART even surpassed 1.1 billion USD. In the on-chain quick access sector, Lemon's market value has exceeded 7 million USD.

3. In the on-chain quick access sector, Lemon's market value has exceeded 7 million USD. In mainstream meme coins, FLOKI announced today that it will launch a customized FlokiAI companion and RICE token.

4. At the same time, Binance has launched the points token SIGN, and last night OK officially announced the launch of OKX Pay.

Alpha Points Acquisition Methods + Reporting Recent Three-Day Trading Profit Statistics to Spiritual Fathers + Which Sectors and Coins in Today's Market Are Worth Our Trading

1. AI: The previous narrative was initiated by AI, starting from the combination of GOAT and memes, later exploring more possibilities and applications. In May and June, there were numerous AI conferences, and the concept reached peak popularity! Representative coins other than the table: TAO, FET, VIRTUAL, ARC, ALCH, Zerebro

2. L1: Public chain coins have always been a relatively stable choice during the altcoin season. The overall logic is that the development of public chains determines the ceiling of their ecosystem projects, while also capturing the most liquidity. Representative coins: SOL, SUI

3. Meme: There is consensus on-chain, and there is money off-chain, with explosive price increases. The native on-chain consensus of these projects is strong, completely independent of exchange control, making it easy to create a wealth effect. Representative coins: PEPE, FARTCOIN

4. DeFi: There are real business models, earning fees, interest spreads, and token issuance fees. The network effects of leading projects are very strong; the closer we get to the altcoin season, the more opportunities there are to make money. Projects with capital can repurchase, forming a positive cycle. Representative coins: HYPE, JUP, AAVE

Overall, AI is the new narrative, L1 is the stable base, Meme plays with consensus and culture, and DeFi can earn money and repurchase itself.

How to view today's market?
1. Last night, the market just broke through 95.5k, but it has been somewhat stagnant in the last two days. Although it is at a high level, the sentiment seems to be 'overheated'. For example:
Although there has been a surge in the number of people entering above 95k, there hasn't been a clear breakthrough, indicating that there is speculation about the future, but in reality, it may be stuck. In such times, it is easy to be 'cut' by the big players.
2. It has been continuously testing the range of 95.5k-96.5k, which has been tested multiple times without breaking. Although it's a new high, the RSI did not spike simultaneously and instead dropped, indicating weak upward momentum.
3. After reaching around 95.7k-95.2k, it is now heading downward, with a target range at 93k-92k, along with some strategies from community analysts #加密货币总市值重回3万亿 .

Is Bitcoin going to continue rising or fluctuate?

First, let's look at the big picture: The Federal Reserve hasn't cut interest rates, and the balance sheet reduction hasn't stopped; the macro environment isn't yet in a loose phase. Right now, Bitcoin's price movements rely entirely on sentiment, which is influenced by macro policies and major events in the cryptocurrency space. For example, the previous easing of regulations and a softer stance from Powell indeed led to a price surge, but these news have limited impact, and things can change rapidly — now, the 'understanding king' says the discussions on regulations are still ongoing, and there are no other major positive news. After Bitcoin rose to over 93,000, it has consistently struggled to break through the resistance at 95,000 and can only fluctuate for the time being.

From the market perspective, after the US stock market opened last night, Bitcoin's trading volume suddenly increased, indicating that there were sellers above 93,000. Additionally, those who bought at 75,000 are now nearly 20,000 in profit and may sell to cash out at any time. Coupled with the fact that there are no significant announcements this week and the economic data for April 30 hasn't been released, the market will likely continue to fluctuate. A breakthrough to the upside would require a larger positive catalyst (like a sudden interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve), otherwise, even a slight negative news could lead to a price drop.

Now, regarding altcoins, can they be held long-term?

It depends on two key points:

First, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 93,000 and if the trading volume is sufficient;

Second, whether mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have independent inflows of capital that are not tied to Bitcoin (for example, a sudden surge in DeFi locked value). In this market condition, short-term trading is more prudent; avoid holding positions long-term recklessly, as a retreat in sentiment could lead to a significant drop in altcoins.

April 24 Bitcoin Strong Surge Bearish Turning Point Approaching Latest Market Analysis and Strategy

The market has been quite intense these past few days; this kind of surge leaves many who missed it with no options. The rise has indeed been a bit rapid. If you are a newcomer and currently have no positions, I suggest you observe for now and not get carried away in a rush. Those who have been in the crypto space for a long time know how frightening the pullback risks that come with such a market can be, including the sensitivity of price swings. Of course, there are also brave souls chasing the surge, and it is only natural that some people can make profits, as their courage has already far surpassed that of most people. At this time, being able to consistently profit in a bullish market is already the best strategy. The next key point is to stay alive; don't envy others or regret why you didn't buy the ups. Such sentiments are what children do. As a pragmatic person, you must always remain clear-headed.

Currently, the market appears to be in a high-level consolidation phase. On the daily chart, after a large bullish candle in recent days, it is now in a correction phase, but the overall momentum remains strong. The current MACD histogram is negative but gradually shrinking, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening and could potentially reverse. The RSI value is hovering around 50, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, with market sentiment relatively neutral. The short-term EMA7 is closely converging with the long-term EMA30 and EMA120 moving averages, indicating that prices are searching for direction; the next focus should be on breakout conditions. The daily chart currently faces resistance at 95,000, which has been difficult to overcome, so short-term attention should be paid to the risk of pullbacks.

April 24 BTC Trading Strategy:

1. Short at 95,000-94,000, stop loss above 96,000, target 92,000-91,000

2. Long at 91,000-92,000, stop loss below 90,000, target 93,500-94,500

April 24 ETH Trading Strategy:

1. Short at 1,820-1,790, stop loss above 1,860, target near 1,740, continue to look for a downward move near 1,680

2. Long at 1,680-1,710, stop loss below 1,640, target 1,790-1,830

Morning Analysis: Will the Federal Reserve Lower Interest Rates This Year? How Will It Affect the Cryptocurrency Market?

Regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts, there are two scenarios:
(1) Trump's tariffs have driven prices very high, inflation remains high and rebounds.
(2) Inflation does not rebound and gradually declines.

In the first scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 0-2 times in 2025.
Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 2 times.
If so, the increase in BTC and altcoins may be limited.
BTC benefits from the U.S. strategic reserves, with a 30% chance of reaching $200,000 by 2026.
However, altcoins may struggle and not follow suit closely.

In the second scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 3-4 times in 2025.
Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 5-6 times.
If so, BTC reaching $200,000 by 2026 is very promising,
and altcoins also have the potential for significant gains. #TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿

Report to all stakeholders on the market recovery from April 21 to April 23, Pandazoo results #加密市场反弹 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿

Last night at 8:30, Panda publicly announced that all trades in the YouTube live room were profitable. This time, it was a huge gain!

I had a dream where BTC📈 reached 130,000💲 #比特币市场波动观察 $BTC

Today's BTC market analysis #ETHBTC汇率新低 #SEC批准多支比特币ETF期权 #BTC☀

Important information in the currency circle within 24 hours:

1. Approximately $1.4 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked this week;

2. The Korean won remains the second-largest legal currency by Bitcoin trading volume;

3. Türkiye is preparing to formulate a new encryption law to align with international standards;

4. The listing of spot ETFs in Hong Kong has not had a significant impact on futures ETFs;

5. Pudgy Penguins: Pudgy Toys is now available at Target;

6. Data: Uniswap Routers have destroyed 5,342 ETH in the past 30 days;

7. Ximalaya’s Hong Kong IPO was required by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to disclose the proportion of virtual assets revenue and compliance;

8. Bitfarms: I hope Hong Kong can become a channel for mainland investors to obtain Bitcoin-related technologies. #GameStop带动Meme板块 #山寨币热点

1) Market trend:
BTC fell, and altcoins fell across the board. BTC mining power has fallen for two consecutive months, and the current shutdown price is 5.5WU.
US stocks rose. US PPI industrial inflation hit a one-year high, and inflation remains stubborn.
2) Market hot spots:
1. Meme's Pepe, People, Floki, Harry Potter, etc. rose. These are all ETH-related memes, and People is the concept of the US election.
2. BN's new coins BB, RZ, etc. generally fell sharply. RZ, Omni, Saga, TNSR, W, etc. were all cut in half, and retail investors no longer took over VC coins.
3. AI's WLD fell sharply, and will unlock 4% of about 5,000WU every day from July. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析 #ETH

5.4 Saturday Market Analysis

Ether: The market is under pressure near 3125 when it goes up. The short-term four-hour boll is open and running. The MACD bulls are running with large volume for the second time. The high pressure focuses on the 3180 line. The upper and lower 3050-3080 in one hour form the short-term top and bottom conversion support strength. The three lines of KDJ show weakness and diverge downward. The MACD bulls show signs of shrinking volume. One hour looks like a high and fall.

Big cake: The market bulls rose at night and touched the upper 63,300 position. The market has also risen by nearly 5,000 points from yesterday to today. At present, the market bulls have touched the upper rail position of the Bollinger band. The market bulls are obviously weak. The upper rail bulls are blocked. The KDJ bulls are running downward at the top. The MACD red kinetic energy is also shrinking. Overall, the market is also a high point at present. The short-term support in the four hours focuses on 62,100. $BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析

1) Market trend: BTC fluctuates, and the market hypes the ETH series. US stocks rebounded. The market expects a 35 basis point interest rate cut this year and a 60 basis point interest rate cut next year. 2) Market hot spots: 1. The public chain ETH rose sharply, and the ETHBTC exchange rate rose sharply. The market hyped that the spot ETF of ETH passed at the end of May, similar to the logic of BTC ETF. However, the ETH chain is not active, and the gas is only 6 GWEI. 2. Ethfi and SSV pledged by ETH ecological projects rose, and BN will pledge Renzo again tomorrow night. ETH L2's OP and STRK rose. OP has a large unlock of 60 million US dollars this week. 3. Depin's Mobile and HNT rose sharply. Recently, there have been many airdrops in the Sol mobile phone ecosystem. 4. The stablecoin protocol Bucket of the Sui ecosystem has a magic mine. Bucket is a copycat of the over-collateralized stablecoin MakerDAO, with a stablecoin yield of APR70%, and there is a high probability that tokens will be airdropped in the future. #大盘走势 #美联储 #BTC $BTC $ETH

1) Market trend:
The market fell sharply, and the copycat fell across the board.
The US stock market fluctuated, and the financial report was weak.

2) Market hot spots:
1. The exchange rate of platform currency BNBBTC broke through the monthly line. CZ's US sentence at the end of April continued to ferment. There is a small probability that once CZ is sentenced to a light sentence, BNB may retaliate and pull the market.
2. Fan coins Porto and Lazio rose. Football fan coins like to pull the market when the market falls.
3. Rune dog airdrop rose. Rune stone airdropped dog runes to holders, with a market value of 350 million US dollars, and a large short-term trading volume.
4. AI's io.net is going to issue an airdrop, and the whales score predicts a market value of 4 billion US dollars. io is a decentralized AI computing power. The same track RNDR has a market value of 5 billion US dollars, and AKT has a market value of 2 billion US dollars. #大盘走势 $BTC $ETH

Among the three spot stocks recommended on April 19, BONK rose by about 60% in the past 7 days, PEPE rose by about 50%, and WIF rose by 30%. There is no doubt that they were all at the bottom that day.