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Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Analysis:
* Key Resistance: $107,500 (4-hour EMA60 + dense area of on-chain trapped positions)
* Key Support: $105,000 (maximum pain point for options + institutional OTC accumulation area)
* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD histogram diverging below zero axis, RSI (36) entering oversold territory but no divergence observed; if volume breaks below $105,000, it may trigger $800 million in leveraged liquidations.
Event Driven:
* Bullish: Expectations for sovereign reserves in emerging markets, ETF funds flowing against the trend, OKX transparency boosting confidence
* Bearish: Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policies suppressing risk appetite, concerns over Tether's massive BTC holdings being sold off
Probability Distribution:
* Consolidation ($105,000-$107,500): 45% (waiting for policy signals and on-chain liquidations to clear)
* Decline (breaking below $105,000): 35% (linked to surging U.S. Treasury yields + long position liquidation)
* Rebound (breaking above $107,500): 20% (requires ETF net inflow exceeding $500 million)#中心化与去中心化交易所 #加密市场回调 $BTC

The recent violent fluctuations in the price of Alpaca Coin reflect the structural dilemmas in the cryptocurrency market:
1. The liquidity of the spot market has dried up.
The current market lacks a clear mainline, and old altcoins generally face delisting risks, with extremely low depth in spot trading. The accumulation of trapped positions has led to the withdrawal of main funds, the traditional 'speculating on expectations' model has failed, and the market has fallen into a state of 'no theme to speculate on, no incremental funds' stagnation.
2. Zero-sum game on the contract battlefield.
After the spot market receded, high-leverage contracts became the main battlefield for funds. The long-short game has detached from fundamentals and evolved into a pure mutual liquidation of existing funds—strong short selling will trigger counter-attacks, and price fluctuations are extremely amplified. Under this 'gambling-style' game, the market resembles a 'cryptocurrency version of Auschwitz,' where the only survivor is the extreme financial power that has completely harvested the shorts.
3. The vicious cycle of market ecology.
Low market cap coins become shorting targets due to low pull-up costs, but shorting will attract larger funds to counterattack, forming a 'long-short strangulation' deadlock;
- The exhaustion of spot liquidity and intensified contract harvesting further leads to the collapse of market confidence, resulting in a deadlock of 'no one to接盘 for hot altcoins, mainstream coins lying flat and waiting'.
The essence of the current market is the jungle rule of 'the flow of funds determines the direction of the scythe':
For ordinary investors, holding mainstream coins in spot (staying away from high-volatility altcoins), avoiding contract leverage, is the way to survive across cycles;
Beware of any 'get-rich-quick' narratives—when the market is left with only speculation and harvesting, after the tide recedes, only the naked swimmers remain.#山寨币ETF展望

💰💰#BTC走势分析 $BTC 4 April 30th Trading Strategy

Market Analysis: Bitcoin's rebound yesterday still did not break through the upper resistance, and after being pressured, it fell back and rebounded again. There are clear support and resistance levels above and below; try to seize low long opportunities.
Trading Plan:
1. Pay attention to the resistance results around 95500—96000, chase the rise if broken, and short if pressured.
2. Pay attention to the support results around 94700—94200, stop the decline and go long if it holds, but if it breaks, monitor the support around 93500—93000.

Report yesterday's performance report to mental shareholders, ps: sol today 145 long positions have been entered $SOL #特朗普税改 $BTC

Today's Focus: Those Who Dare Not Chase AI Can Only Wait to Short
#Important Sector Analysis (4.29)

1. In the area of altcoins, the AI sector saw WLD's daily increase nearly 25%.

2. The overall market value of AI16Z has returned to over 300 million USD, and FART even surpassed 1.1 billion USD. In the on-chain quick access sector, Lemon's market value has exceeded 7 million USD.

3. In the on-chain quick access sector, Lemon's market value has exceeded 7 million USD. In mainstream meme coins, FLOKI announced today that it will launch a customized FlokiAI companion and RICE token.

4. At the same time, Binance has launched the points token SIGN, and last night OK officially announced the launch of OKX Pay.

Alpha Points Acquisition Methods + Reporting Recent Three-Day Trading Profit Statistics to Spiritual Fathers + Which Sectors and Coins in Today's Market Are Worth Our Trading

1. AI: The previous narrative was initiated by AI, starting from the combination of GOAT and memes, later exploring more possibilities and applications. In May and June, there were numerous AI conferences, and the concept reached peak popularity! Representative coins other than the table: TAO, FET, VIRTUAL, ARC, ALCH, Zerebro

2. L1: Public chain coins have always been a relatively stable choice during the altcoin season. The overall logic is that the development of public chains determines the ceiling of their ecosystem projects, while also capturing the most liquidity. Representative coins: SOL, SUI

3. Meme: There is consensus on-chain, and there is money off-chain, with explosive price increases. The native on-chain consensus of these projects is strong, completely independent of exchange control, making it easy to create a wealth effect. Representative coins: PEPE, FARTCOIN

4. DeFi: There are real business models, earning fees, interest spreads, and token issuance fees. The network effects of leading projects are very strong; the closer we get to the altcoin season, the more opportunities there are to make money. Projects with capital can repurchase, forming a positive cycle. Representative coins: HYPE, JUP, AAVE

Overall, AI is the new narrative, L1 is the stable base, Meme plays with consensus and culture, and DeFi can earn money and repurchase itself.

How to view today's market?
1. Last night, the market just broke through 95.5k, but it has been somewhat stagnant in the last two days. Although it is at a high level, the sentiment seems to be 'overheated'. For example:
Although there has been a surge in the number of people entering above 95k, there hasn't been a clear breakthrough, indicating that there is speculation about the future, but in reality, it may be stuck. In such times, it is easy to be 'cut' by the big players.
2. It has been continuously testing the range of 95.5k-96.5k, which has been tested multiple times without breaking. Although it's a new high, the RSI did not spike simultaneously and instead dropped, indicating weak upward momentum.
3. After reaching around 95.7k-95.2k, it is now heading downward, with a target range at 93k-92k, along with some strategies from community analysts #加密货币总市值重回3万亿 .

Is Bitcoin going to continue rising or fluctuate?

First, let's look at the big picture: The Federal Reserve hasn't cut interest rates, and the balance sheet reduction hasn't stopped; the macro environment isn't yet in a loose phase. Right now, Bitcoin's price movements rely entirely on sentiment, which is influenced by macro policies and major events in the cryptocurrency space. For example, the previous easing of regulations and a softer stance from Powell indeed led to a price surge, but these news have limited impact, and things can change rapidly — now, the 'understanding king' says the discussions on regulations are still ongoing, and there are no other major positive news. After Bitcoin rose to over 93,000, it has consistently struggled to break through the resistance at 95,000 and can only fluctuate for the time being.

From the market perspective, after the US stock market opened last night, Bitcoin's trading volume suddenly increased, indicating that there were sellers above 93,000. Additionally, those who bought at 75,000 are now nearly 20,000 in profit and may sell to cash out at any time. Coupled with the fact that there are no significant announcements this week and the economic data for April 30 hasn't been released, the market will likely continue to fluctuate. A breakthrough to the upside would require a larger positive catalyst (like a sudden interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve), otherwise, even a slight negative news could lead to a price drop.

Now, regarding altcoins, can they be held long-term?

It depends on two key points:

First, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 93,000 and if the trading volume is sufficient;

Second, whether mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have independent inflows of capital that are not tied to Bitcoin (for example, a sudden surge in DeFi locked value). In this market condition, short-term trading is more prudent; avoid holding positions long-term recklessly, as a retreat in sentiment could lead to a significant drop in altcoins.

April 24 Bitcoin Strong Surge Bearish Turning Point Approaching Latest Market Analysis and Strategy

The market has been quite intense these past few days; this kind of surge leaves many who missed it with no options. The rise has indeed been a bit rapid. If you are a newcomer and currently have no positions, I suggest you observe for now and not get carried away in a rush. Those who have been in the crypto space for a long time know how frightening the pullback risks that come with such a market can be, including the sensitivity of price swings. Of course, there are also brave souls chasing the surge, and it is only natural that some people can make profits, as their courage has already far surpassed that of most people. At this time, being able to consistently profit in a bullish market is already the best strategy. The next key point is to stay alive; don't envy others or regret why you didn't buy the ups. Such sentiments are what children do. As a pragmatic person, you must always remain clear-headed.

Currently, the market appears to be in a high-level consolidation phase. On the daily chart, after a large bullish candle in recent days, it is now in a correction phase, but the overall momentum remains strong. The current MACD histogram is negative but gradually shrinking, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening and could potentially reverse. The RSI value is hovering around 50, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, with market sentiment relatively neutral. The short-term EMA7 is closely converging with the long-term EMA30 and EMA120 moving averages, indicating that prices are searching for direction; the next focus should be on breakout conditions. The daily chart currently faces resistance at 95,000, which has been difficult to overcome, so short-term attention should be paid to the risk of pullbacks.

April 24 BTC Trading Strategy:

1. Short at 95,000-94,000, stop loss above 96,000, target 92,000-91,000

2. Long at 91,000-92,000, stop loss below 90,000, target 93,500-94,500

April 24 ETH Trading Strategy:

1. Short at 1,820-1,790, stop loss above 1,860, target near 1,740, continue to look for a downward move near 1,680

2. Long at 1,680-1,710, stop loss below 1,640, target 1,790-1,830

Morning Analysis: Will the Federal Reserve Lower Interest Rates This Year? How Will It Affect the Cryptocurrency Market?

Regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts, there are two scenarios:
(1) Trump's tariffs have driven prices very high, inflation remains high and rebounds.
(2) Inflation does not rebound and gradually declines.

In the first scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 0-2 times in 2025.
Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 2 times.
If so, the increase in BTC and altcoins may be limited.
BTC benefits from the U.S. strategic reserves, with a 30% chance of reaching $200,000 by 2026.
However, altcoins may struggle and not follow suit closely.

In the second scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 3-4 times in 2025.
Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 5-6 times.
If so, BTC reaching $200,000 by 2026 is very promising,
and altcoins also have the potential for significant gains. #TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿

Report to all stakeholders on the market recovery from April 21 to April 23, Pandazoo results #加密市场反弹 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿