Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $107,500 (4-hour EMA60 + dense area of on-chain trapped positions)

* Key Support: $105,000 (maximum pain point for options + institutional OTC accumulation area)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD histogram diverging below zero axis, RSI (36) entering oversold territory but no divergence observed; if volume breaks below $105,000, it may trigger $800 million in leveraged liquidations.

Event Driven:

* Bullish: Expectations for sovereign reserves in emerging markets, ETF funds flowing against the trend, OKX transparency boosting confidence

* Bearish: Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policies suppressing risk appetite, concerns over Tether's massive BTC holdings being sold off

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($105,000-$107,500): 45% (waiting for policy signals and on-chain liquidations to clear)

* Decline (breaking below $105,000): 35% (linked to surging U.S. Treasury yields + long position liquidation)

* Rebound (breaking above $107,500): 20% (requires ETF net inflow exceeding $500 million)#中心化与去中心化交易所 #加密市场回调 $BTC