Morning Analysis: Will the Federal Reserve Lower Interest Rates This Year? How Will It Affect the Cryptocurrency Market?

Regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts, there are two scenarios:

(1) Trump's tariffs have driven prices very high, inflation remains high and rebounds.

(2) Inflation does not rebound and gradually declines.

In the first scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 0-2 times in 2025.

Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 2 times.

If so, the increase in BTC and altcoins may be limited.

BTC benefits from the U.S. strategic reserves, with a 30% chance of reaching $200,000 by 2026.

However, altcoins may struggle and not follow suit closely.

In the second scenario, the Fed may lower interest rates 3-4 times in 2025.

Next year, in 2026, it may lower rates 5-6 times.

If so, BTC reaching $200,000 by 2026 is very promising,

and altcoins also have the potential for significant gains. #TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿