金元宝火火

BTB: The range remains between 119800---100372;

Since 100372 is currently the first technical support of the V-shaped reversal, the market's probability of directly breaking through 100372 and crossing the 100,000 integer level is slightly lower (it's not impossible, just less likely).

Even if it falls below 100,000, the market will likely exhibit a V-shaped reversal similar to 100372, returning above 100372, with the pattern possibly resembling a parallelogram with a downward center of gravity.

If the 119800---100372 range forms a converging triangle, then the market will have an opportunity to pull back to above 100372, like in the 101000--102000 range, and finally choose a direction upon breaking the converging triangle.

In terms of trading, above 100372, there is a buying opportunity on dips in the 101000/102000 range, or a short-term bottom-fishing opportunity after breaking below 100,000.

At the current price level, the cost-effectiveness of both long and short positions is slightly low.

ETH: In the short-term trend, after being blocked at 2880 and quickly retreating, the rebound has remained above 2680, but is now retreating towards around 2500, with the rebound's peaks becoming progressively lower, indicating that the upward momentum for bulls is weakening.

Technically, there have been multiple touches on the support line formed by the connection between 2323 and 2381; the more times the market tests above this support line, the greater the probability of breaking below it. This suggests that ETH is likely to break below the support line connecting 2323 and 2381, dipping below 2300.

BTB: Last week's lowest point of 100372 was a V-shaped reversal support, which is not easy to break directly. Even if it breaks, it can bounce back. It is advisable to back the strong support above 100372, to buy the dip at 103000--102000. Short-term rebounds can be exited in the 106000--106600 range. If above 110000 is a medium to short-term second peak, losing 100000 may still allow for fluctuations, and it can return above 100000. If 110000---100372 is a large converging triangle continuation pattern, there is hope to reach a new high in the second half of the year with the help of US dollar interest rate cuts.

On June 11, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $165 million, continuing a 3-day net inflow; Ethereum spot ETF net inflow was $240 million, continuing an 18-day net inflow.

Bitfinex large holders have been reducing their long positions since April 12, with Bitcoin long positions decreasing from 71,665 to 43,932. Due to the relationship between Bitfinex and Tether, its actions are very indicative of market trends.

If it drops by 15%, it makes me very anxious 😟 and I can't sleep.

Then you need to change your investment philosophy. This indicates that this place is not suitable for you; the world will not adapt to you, you can only adapt to it yourself.

BTB: The daily candlestick has five consecutive bullish closes, trading above the 5, 10, and 24-day moving averages, with the overall medium-short term trend still very strong. The prices of the 5, 10, and 24 moving averages (108,290, 106,318, 106,958) are all above 106,000, with support at 106,800 below.

From a broader perspective, the highest point at the end of May was 112,000, which is the first resistance encountered. The lowest point last week (June 5) at 100,372 is the first support level. The market has rebounded from 100,372 and has already surged above 110,000; it is assumed that this rebound will be hindered below 112,000, making 112,000 the second resistance.

If the market moves in a large triangle convergence pattern of 112,000 --- 100,373 --- < 112,000 --- > 100,372, then the market has one more chance to dip close to 100,372 (around 102,000).

If the market continues to make new highs after a strong consolidation, then the adjustment will likely not drop below the 5, 10, and 24 moving averages, meaning it will not fall below 106,000.

From a technical standpoint, considering the facts, the current short-term trend is very strong; either pull back to go long or wait on the sidelines. Absolutely do not attempt to short at the top.

Considering the cost-effectiveness of buying on dips, a pullback above the horizontal support of 106,800 may be a buying opportunity. If it falls below 106,000 and approaches above 100,372 (around 102,000), it may be a medium-short term buying opportunity. Therefore, currently, aside from waiting patiently on the sidelines, there is nothing else to do.

If it is a head and shoulders top, breaking 103000, the market will test 94,000 to 96,000.

This market is really dragging on, the short-term direction is unclear, and we still need to wait for a breakout of this range to determine the short-term trend. It is expected to rise first and then fall during the day. As time goes on, the price of Bitcoin will not remain in this narrow range for long, and I believe a new change will come soon. Currently, we will use 103000 to determine.

The most important concept in trading is position management

This is actually the core of whether you can control the account curve

Many people become victims of the market

A big problem is that they go crazy with leverage during FOMO

A single pullback can lead to total losses

If you have 100,000

And this is money you can afford to lose

Then I suggest you at least split this amount into two parts

If you are a beginner

You should first set your position based on losses

For example, if the price now is 105,000

You take 50,000 to trade

Here you go long

The maximum limit to control your loss is 2%, which is 1,000 yuan

If your stop-loss point is at 103,000

That means your position can only be opened at 1,000 / [(105,000 - 103,000) / 105,000] = 52,631

This is the simplest way to control stop-loss

But definitely 80% of people are unwilling to do this

What you want is the thrill of going all-in

Think carefully about why you came to this market

Is it to provide liquidity or to say goodbye to being a loser early

What market conditions require aggression and which require defense

This is something you should consider after taking the first step well

Trading needs to be logical

The breach of 106600 has damaged the upward trend since 80,000. Wait for adjustments to make long trades; try not to short. Currently, the main driver is institutions, and trading opportunities are limited.

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin briefly rose to around 108900, but the momentum was limited. It subsequently oscillated lower and fell below the intraday support at 106500, which is also the short to medium-term support line. This support line has now been breached, and in the early session, it quickly dropped. However, after the Bitcoin price fell to 104500, it began to rebound significantly and soon rose to around 106000. From the perspective of the broken short to medium-term support line, the market does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a downward trend; it could also be entering a high-level adjustment. Regardless, the original upward trend has been broken, and the best expectation is high-level oscillation. During the day, pay attention to the 106500 level, which is a pressure line formed by the breach, as well as the pressure around 108000. If the Bitcoin price cannot continue to decline after breaching, then we should view it as maintaining a high-level oscillation. During the day, the inclination is to go long after a pullback in Bitcoin prices.

The performance of the second asset yesterday was clearly stronger, briefly refreshing the high level around 2788. However, yesterday's level breakout was a false breakout, and the buying energy after the pullback was not strong, quickly falling below the support level around 2740. After the false breakout, the market instead joined the short positions, plunging to a low of 2556 in the early session. Currently, the rebound strength is decent, having reached the pressure level of 2645. During the day, 2645 serves as a watershed; below 2645 indicates a weak situation, continuing the decline since 2788. Conversely, if it breaks up again and stabilizes above 2645, then the short-term downward risk is released. It will still be in a large oscillation range, which is a sloping upward rectangular structure. Due to the formation of a bottom divergence on the hourly chart and a strong rebound, the inclination for the day is to pull back and go long, with support around 2600.

The weekly trend of BTB forms a converging triangle pattern, with support at 106600 below and resistance at 112000 and 110700 above, forming a pressure line. 106600 is also the position of the six-week uptrend line since below 80000. Losing 106600 would break the six-week uptrend line, indicating that the overall six-week uptrend is coming to an end. Support below 106600 is at 104000; 100000.

The e-guard has also improved
BTC:
The price of Bitcoin slightly decreased yesterday but still held the support line at 106,000. This support can be moved up to 106,500, which is also the intraday support. If this support can be maintained, there is still a chance for the price of Bitcoin to rise further. However, if it breaks below and triggers a rapid decline (many short-term and short-to-medium-term long positions have moved their stop-loss to this level), it would break the recent uptrend line. In fact, the price of Bitcoin has shown signs of breaking this uptrend line, but without triggering a significant drop, we are currently considering horizontal support. At present, Ethereum is relatively strong and may drive Bitcoin to strengthen. Intraday, buy on dips, with a maximum stop-loss below 106,500.
ETH:
In the early session, it quickly rose to around 2,788, breaking through the recent horizontal resistance at 2,740. Currently, it has pulled back without breaking, showing some support; this breakout is tentatively considered valid. However, since the price of Bitcoin has not followed suit with a significant increase, the strength of Ethereum alone is insufficient to attract more following buyers. For today, we will first look at the support around 2,730-2,740, which is the resistance that has turned into horizontal support. If it is strong, it can pull back but must not break below. Once it breaks below, it is prone to a false breakout where prices rise and then fall back. Due to the breakout to new highs, buy on pullbacks around 2,730-2,740, with a maximum stop-loss below 2,700, and upper resistance at 2,850-2,900. Additionally, if a false breakout occurs and the price of Bitcoin falls below 106,500, we will need to shift to a short-term bearish outlook.

When confused about trading, think carefully and only trade when there is a breakthrough choice in direction. After repeating this several times, your confidence will greatly increase, and you can cultivate a calm mindset, forming a positive cycle. Other wasted time and poor market conditions might not yield much position or profit from trades, but they can greatly drain your energy and mindset.

May 23
BTC:
After Bitcoin refreshed its historical high yesterday, it is currently maintaining a strong upward fluctuation and consolidation at a high level. There is not much strong pressure above currently, as the prices are mostly blank. The intraday pressure is only around the high-level pressure of 112,000. From the daily candlestick chart, Bitcoin has recorded three consecutive bullish days, temporarily stagnating in growth, with support around 110,000, only a 2,000 USD increase. Currently, only profit-taking from bulls can create selling pressure. If the support at around 110,000 is not maintained, it may trigger some sharp declines. However, the short to mid-term upward trend remains unchanged unless Bitcoin falls below 106,000, which could change this trend. In the short term, the short to mid-term trend is still bullish, and it is recommended to continue buying on dips as the main strategy. Short-selling requires the market to show significant wide-range trading.

Yesterday, there weren't many short-selling opportunities. After Bitcoin consolidated for a day, short positions increased; conversely, a considerable amount of bullish positions were washed out, and the market rotated a significant portion of bullish positions, balancing the long and short. A considerable part of the bullish positions was washed out, meaning that old bullish positions exited, while some new bullish positions came in, which in turn maintained the stability of the market. This makes it harder to drop.
ETH:
Ethereum is relatively strong and has reached the previous rebound highs. The intraday pressure is naturally around 2,738. Currently, in the short term, it is basically in sync with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks the new high, ETH will naturally follow. From a flexibility perspective, ETH's potential upward space may be even greater. After all, Bitcoin has reached a historical high, while Ethereum is still far from 4,000. If Bitcoin continues to perform strongly, there is a demand for Ethereum to catch up. Intraday support is around 2,630, with a focus on buying on dips.

May 22
BTC:
Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained strong momentum. During the day, it initially faced resistance around the 108,000 level, then quickly broke through to near the 110,000 mark in the evening. Although it briefly fell back to around 106,000, it quickly stopped the decline and rose again, recovering the losses within 2 hours. It then slowly climbed, continuously setting new daily highs and breaking historical highs. Currently, a short squeeze is occurring. Generally speaking, slow rises don’t indicate a top, but after a rapid increase, it is easy to create selling pressure or reach high levels. As long as the slow upward trend remains unchanged, one should consider lightly buying on dips. Previous recommendations for buying on dips can still be held, and there is no prediction for a top to short. Daily support is at 111,000, but it will move upward with the price increase. Pay attention to resistance around the 113,000 level. If there is an accelerated rise to this range, it may create pressure. However, avoid predicting the market top; let the market provide the answers.
ETH:
As Bitcoin’s price continues to refresh historical highs, Ethereum also maintains strong momentum. There is high-level pressure in the 2,650-2,760 range. If Bitcoin's price continues to rise, ETH will gradually approach the upper pressure zone. Once a strong breakout occurs, the stop-loss of short positions will create new upward momentum, and the main strategy will be to buy on dips following Bitcoin's pullback, rather than shorting easily. Daily support is around 2,580-2,600.

May 21
BTC:
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin first fell to the 104200 level and then stabilized, subsequently starting to rebound and once again rising to refresh the short-term high. The strategy of going short first and then long was correct. For today, Bitcoin is relatively strong; unlike the previous two times when it quickly dropped after being blocked around 107000, today it has been running above 106000 for a considerable time. Of course, it has not yet broken through the recent upward sloping range, but it is close to the upper boundary of that range. For today, it is temporarily biased towards weakness, but it is only suitable for holding positions and not for opening new ones. The support for today is at the 106000 level; if this support holds, it will still be relatively strong. If it breaks this support, it will continue to approach 104500 or even 103000. After breaking, one should short on rallies. If Bitcoin maintains its strength, a strong bullish candle breaking 108000 on the 4H chart would be an effective breakout from the recent range, at which point one could continue to go long on dips.
ETH:
Today, Ethereum is somewhat stronger than Bitcoin, but not by much. The daily candlestick is still a distance away from the previous high. If Bitcoin's price breaks 108000, there will be a demand for Ethereum to catch up. The support for today is at the 2450 level, and trades should follow Bitcoin's breakout or breakdown.

Analysis is to boldly hypothesize and carefully verify!

If Bitcoin fails to hold the 100,000 level again after this adjustment, then the adjustment space below is not just 98,000.

Let's make a bold hypothesis. The premise is that Bitcoin's bull market continues, and Bitcoin will definitely reach a new high in the coming time this year.

However, before Bitcoin sets a new historical high, the trend of Bitcoin from November last year to now may be forming a complex long-term head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, with the neck line of the head-and-shoulders bottom at 89,000. According to the principle of symmetry in patterns, the adjustment space of the complex right shoulder will not fall below 89,000 and cannot be lower than the lowest point of the complex left shoulder at 89,256.

It is noted that below the left shoulder of this head-and-shoulders bottom pattern at 92,500, there is a long lower shadow represented in the daily candlestick cycle, so the lowest point of the right shoulder's adjustment will at most just dip below 92,500 and stabilize, forming a converging triangle for the entire right shoulder, ultimately setting a new high.

In terms of time cycles, the time cycle of the left shoulder spans 3 months (from late November 2024 to late February 2025). According to the symmetry of the head-and-shoulders bottom, the right shoulder starts from April 22, and the longest time would be by the end of July. Under normal circumstances, the time cycle of the right shoulder will be slightly shorter than that of the left shoulder, thus Bitcoin is most likely to reach a new high in early to mid-July, or at the latest by late July, as per the hypothetical chart (for reference only).

After Ether broke the 2520 support and resistance level, it has experienced a relatively sharp increase. Currently, it remains in a strong bullish state in the short term. However, if it effectively breaks below 2670, it may indicate the end of this short-term upward wave, requiring an adjustment in the short term. Of course, the adjustment can either be a sideways consolidation or a downward adjustment, depending on the strength and weakness situation.

May 14
BTC:
The price of Bitcoin continued to rise yesterday, showing relative strength, with the daily candlestick recording a small bullish line. However, the intraday low and high did not break through the highs and lows of the previous trading day, indicating that the market has entered a phase of adjustment and repair after a continuous rally. This process is volatile, and short-term movements are easily influenced by news, requiring time to determine its operational range. Currently, the fluctuation range is between 10700-10580, and it's advisable to look for buying opportunities close to the lower end of this range; the intraday support is around 【102800-103120】.
ETH:
Ethereum remains stronger than Bitcoin during this round of increases. After forming support near 2420 yesterday, it continued to climb, reaching a high of around 2780, marking another significant rise, exceeding expectations. ETH should still avoid short positions; even within the fluctuation range, it is better to focus on buying at low positions until a breakout occurs. Intraday support is at 【2625, 2500】.

Ideal State Map

Despite the afternoon Bitcoin's rebound followed by a pullback, creating pressure around 106,000, the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages continue to extend and diverge upwards, and they are still above the 5-day moving average. The daily K-line's upward trend remains very strong. The daily K-line can certainly maintain a strong consolidation above 100,000, waiting for the convergence of the 10, 24-day moving averages and the 5-day price.

There will also be relatively strong buying support above 100,000, as the market has not yet pulled back to 100,000 to digest the buying support near that level. Recent movements may perform strong oscillating consolidation in the range of 100,000 to 106,000. When the market first pulls back near 100,000, it might be a good opportunity for short-term buying on dips.

In the medium to short term, it cannot be ruled out that Bitcoin may face resistance again near this year's highest point, forming a medium to short-term peak. The consensus reached between China and the U.S. on tariffs in the afternoon could mean the good news has been fully priced in, leading to a “sell the fact” movement in the market. From a technical perspective, if a short-term top is to be formed here, it will also require a considerable amount of time. It's better to observe more and act less.

This could be a signal of the end of the trend, watch for support strength around 103000

Tariff adjustments are short-term disturbances; in the long run, it's about the US dollar and institutions. Neutral to bearish: trade easing may trigger risk-averse capital withdrawal, and BTC might retest the $100,000 support; the long-term core logic remains the weakening of US dollar credit, and institutional accumulation of ETFs continues to support BTC bullishness to $120,000-$150,000.

May 12
BTC:
Still maintaining a strong consolidation following the rise, pay attention to the consolidation range on the 1H chart, repeatedly hitting new highs while the lows keep rising. Although the new highs are not substantial, it indicates a low willingness for the market to decline. Bitcoin remains strongly consolidated at high levels stabilizing the overall situation, while other altcoins are performing well, which is a sign of a bull market. Bitcoin should maintain long positions, and intra-day focus remains on the support around $103,000. Only if this support is broken will we see a larger correction. In intra-day operations, the main strategy is to buy on dips as long as there are no breakouts. The further support is at the $100,000 level.
ETH:
After three consecutive days of significant gains, yesterday recorded a small bearish candle, but the body of the bearish candle is less than one-third of the previous bullish candle, and even the lowest point only reached half of that, which still belongs to a normal correction. The short-term trend line of consecutive gains has broken, and ETH has entered a phase of high-level consolidation and adjustment, during which the market's volatility decreases. The consolidation is a correction of the previous significant rise, so during this phase, the focus is still on finding support for short-term trading, with intra-day support at [2440, 2340].

The large pancake is still in a strong consolidation trend, forming a short-term top pattern requires time, or it hasn't even broken out of a strong consolidation range. Standing above 100,000 indicates a rapid breakthrough and surge. The first support level is around 100,600 above 100,000, with short-term strong resistance in the range of 106,000 to 109,588.