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The path ahead is certainly bright, but the process may be twisting...

At the end of July, the technical aspect broke through the 11.5 support and was retracted, also digging a pit to liquidate long leverage, some people will ask if BTC can still be bought now. Currently, global government debt is at an all-time high, and the economy is deeply mired in debt, the inevitability of crazy money printing to 'monetize debt' (which is essentially debt monetization) makes BTC a hardcore tool against the devaluation caused by monetary easing. It possesses the characteristics of a hard asset that can combat currency devaluation, so there is still a considerable amount of space in the future, making this price somewhat reasonable.

🔥 Chip structure and macro resonance: key price range chip solidification (Figure 2)

Currently, Bitcoin has formed a dense chip zone of over 1.2 million BTC in the range of $112,000-$117,000,
1) $117,000: The single price chip stock reached 647,000, with no significant reduction during the pullback;

2) $112,000-$116,000: 623,000 BTC completed a handover, filling the historical gap interval;

3) Cost center: The $5,000 price range carries 1.2 million BTC, forming strong support.

This structure is highly similar to the 'cup and handle' pattern before breaking through $100,000 in December 2024, and historical patterns show that the average increase after a breakout is 30%-50%.

🔥 The current chip zone of $112,000-$117,000 is both a technical 'reservoir' and the next focus will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid to late September and the implementation of Trump's tariff policy.

Liquidity remains the core clue running through the stock, bond, and crypto markets, and its volatility will significantly amplify in 2025. It is also important to be alert to liquidity disturbances in the market. Currently, it is advisable to maintain flexible positions, closely monitor policy inflection points and on-chain data, and capture strategic opportunities in crypto assets amid the reconstruction of USD credit.

Today we must talk about that "hidden cost" in trading that is easily overlooked——transaction fees!

The essence of contracts is spot trading with leverage, but the fees really have "hidden intricacies". On the surface, the order placement fee is 0.02% and the market order fee is 0.05%, which seems low, right? But once leverage comes into play, it adds up! Let me give you a real example:

Assuming you start with a principal of 100 and use 100 times leverage (which is equivalent to directly controlling a position of 10,000), opening and closing at market price. The fees are calculated based on the position amount—when opening a position with a market order, 10,000 × 0.05% is deducted, which equals 5, and another 5 is deducted for closing, so that's a total of 10 right there! This doesn't even account for other costs, and the transaction fees alone take up 10% of the principal!

In comparison, aren't contract fees ridiculously higher than spot trading fees? Even more heartbreaking is that many people are completely unaware of the fee reduction policies and end up spending extra money unnecessarily~

If you're a high-frequency trader or always feel that transaction fees are "painful", you must understand the fee reduction options; saving a little is still saving, #手续费返佣

Currently, long-term holders have surpassed short-term traders in their influence on BTC prices. The power of institutional investors in the BTC market is continuously growing, much like an elephant; although slow-moving, it possesses great strength. In contrast, retail investors are akin to rabbits: agile but easily affected by market fluctuations. In this institution-led slow bull market, prices rise gradually, and retail investors, due to frequent trading or over-leveraging, find it difficult to hold on for the long term, often missing out on opportunities. This is because institutional investors tend to accumulate holdings through systematic investments or long-term holding, while retail investors are more focused on short-term profits and struggle to adapt to the rhythm of this slow bull market.

Therefore, in the current market environment, retail investors should proceed with caution, manage their leverage and positions wisely, avoid blindly following trends, allocate a small portion of assets for short-term trading, and consider the long-term value of larger investments.

Last week, BTB stabilized at 110,000, and after breaking through 112,000 to set a new high, the greater driving force behind the price increase came from the short squeeze in the BTB futures market. The large-scale short positions in BTB being liquidated forced the spot price to rise, rather than the spot market buying pushing up the futures price.

This Monday, BTB retraced from a high of 123,300 to 115,678, and the rebound was noticeably weak, with insufficient market buying support, thus the market is maintaining less than the current price.

Additionally, this week, a significant amount of capital in the market has shifted towards ETH, driving up the ETH/BTC ratio, further weakening the spot market buying for BTC. BTB may experience a wave of downward pressure in the short term, with the retracement potentially falling below 110,000. It is highly likely that the market will drop back down just as it rose last week, returning to the 100,000–110,000 range.

The rapid rise of ETH in the short term has overstretched the market's upward momentum, exhausting the fuel for further increases (short liquidation), making it difficult to maintain the upward trend, and it is also prone to a pullback under the influence of BTB.

The above views are not a short-selling recommendation; short-term/differential position long holdings should try to exit the market and temporarily avoid going long.

Today's pain point for the long position liquidation of the pancake is in the 117000--116500 range, with resistance above at 121000; 123300.

The large-scale liquidation price for Ethereum is around 3320.

ETH's ETF sees billions of dollars in inflows daily. Ultimately, it's because there is too much active capital in the US stock market, with hot money spilling over into Crypto. The short positions in Ethereum are being liquidated very cleanly, and there are sporadic short liquidation prices around 3650. Without fuel for an increase, the rise is pretty much over. This time, Ethereum's rise happened when Bitcoin adjusted to 7000 dollars, and when Bitcoin's rebound was weak. This kind of movement reminds me of Bitcoin's rise above 100,000 earlier this year, with Ethereum rising to 4000, followed by a peak in the short-term trend. Don't chase Ethereum.

Intraday support at 3540 (to maintain strength, it must not break), 3460 (breaking this level increases adjustment intensity and declares the end of this unilateral rising market, entering an adjustment structure). As long as the trend hasn't ended and the market hasn't peaked, still maintain a light position and focus on buying the dips.

There are quite a few long positions in the 114500---115800 range, with the largest long position being liquidated at 115700; in the 118400---119900 range, there is a significant short position liquidation at the 118400 price. For every increase of 100 dollars, there is continuous fuel, and when the short positions are liquidated, it means buying to close, which is like fireworks; once ignited, it goes off all at once. Thus, if it rises to 119900/120000, it can blow up most of the short positions in the market.

The bulls near 117000 have been liquidated, and the short-term pullback has occurred. During the day, you can pay attention to the short-term long positions in the current price range of 117500--116800, with an exit at 120,000.

Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped from 118880 to a low of 116600, and a considerable portion of long positions have exited for profit.

According to COINGLASS liquidation map, the market has accumulated quite a number of long counterparties (shorts), with concentrated liquidation prices ranging from 118900 to 119500.

Support levels are at 116600 and 115300. These two price levels also have many high-leverage long positions facing liquidation. If the market retraces below 116600 or 115300, the liquidation of profitable long positions and high-leverage short-term positions can alleviate the selling pressure in the market.

After Bitcoin reached a new high, the current upward trend remains strong, and after a period of consolidation, it is highly likely to target the liquidation of short positions below 120000.

After observing the liquidation map for a period of time, if at a certain price point, the liquidation positions are limited, or the liquidated positions are very small, then the market is likely to stop falling or rising at that price. In other words, the room for further decline or increase at that price is very limited. For example, today's liquidation map for Bitcoin shows that when the price reaches above 107,000, there are not many short positions left to liquidate. In the short term, the market will exhaust its current fuel around 107,000. When the price dips to around 99,000, the long positions that have been liquidated are almost all cleared, leaving limited room for further declines. In terms of short-term trends, Bitcoin does not have a clear direction, and the market is mainly oscillating widely to harvest liquidity. In the short term, short positions around 107,000 have a relatively high cost-performance ratio, while bottom-fishing should ideally be around 99,000.

The last test of BTB to 100372 directly resulted in a V-shaped reversal, indicating that the market's buying interest at lower levels is still strong.

Recently, BTB has experienced several challenges in trying to pull back close to 100372, facing ups and downs. As of now, the market is still nearly 2000 dollars away from a pullback to 100372.
This complicated approach to the area above 100372 has taken considerable effort, suggesting that a sustained decline is relatively difficult.

Currently, 100372 can only be considered a strong support level tested once; a second approach to this support level will likely see a rebound. Even if the market fails to form a second support at 100372 and chooses to break below it, it would only liquidate long positions around 100,000, and it would quickly rebound back above 100,000.

At this moment, Bitcoin is completely dominated by institutions, or major short-term funds and large positions are harvesting market liquidity, making it hard to have a one-sided market. The collective nature of institutional holdings makes a significant drop unlikely.

BTB: The range remains between 119800---100372;

Since 100372 is currently the first technical support of the V-shaped reversal, the market's probability of directly breaking through 100372 and crossing the 100,000 integer level is slightly lower (it's not impossible, just less likely).

Even if it falls below 100,000, the market will likely exhibit a V-shaped reversal similar to 100372, returning above 100372, with the pattern possibly resembling a parallelogram with a downward center of gravity.

If the 119800---100372 range forms a converging triangle, then the market will have an opportunity to pull back to above 100372, like in the 101000--102000 range, and finally choose a direction upon breaking the converging triangle.

In terms of trading, above 100372, there is a buying opportunity on dips in the 101000/102000 range, or a short-term bottom-fishing opportunity after breaking below 100,000.

At the current price level, the cost-effectiveness of both long and short positions is slightly low.

ETH: In the short-term trend, after being blocked at 2880 and quickly retreating, the rebound has remained above 2680, but is now retreating towards around 2500, with the rebound's peaks becoming progressively lower, indicating that the upward momentum for bulls is weakening.

Technically, there have been multiple touches on the support line formed by the connection between 2323 and 2381; the more times the market tests above this support line, the greater the probability of breaking below it. This suggests that ETH is likely to break below the support line connecting 2323 and 2381, dipping below 2300.

BTB: Last week's lowest point of 100372 was a V-shaped reversal support, which is not easy to break directly. Even if it breaks, it can bounce back. It is advisable to back the strong support above 100372, to buy the dip at 103000--102000. Short-term rebounds can be exited in the 106000--106600 range. If above 110000 is a medium to short-term second peak, losing 100000 may still allow for fluctuations, and it can return above 100000. If 110000---100372 is a large converging triangle continuation pattern, there is hope to reach a new high in the second half of the year with the help of US dollar interest rate cuts.

On June 11, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $165 million, continuing a 3-day net inflow; Ethereum spot ETF net inflow was $240 million, continuing an 18-day net inflow.

Bitfinex large holders have been reducing their long positions since April 12, with Bitcoin long positions decreasing from 71,665 to 43,932. Due to the relationship between Bitfinex and Tether, its actions are very indicative of market trends.

If it drops by 15%, it makes me very anxious 😟 and I can't sleep.

Then you need to change your investment philosophy. This indicates that this place is not suitable for you; the world will not adapt to you, you can only adapt to it yourself.

BTB: The daily candlestick has five consecutive bullish closes, trading above the 5, 10, and 24-day moving averages, with the overall medium-short term trend still very strong. The prices of the 5, 10, and 24 moving averages (108,290, 106,318, 106,958) are all above 106,000, with support at 106,800 below.

From a broader perspective, the highest point at the end of May was 112,000, which is the first resistance encountered. The lowest point last week (June 5) at 100,372 is the first support level. The market has rebounded from 100,372 and has already surged above 110,000; it is assumed that this rebound will be hindered below 112,000, making 112,000 the second resistance.

If the market moves in a large triangle convergence pattern of 112,000 --- 100,373 --- < 112,000 --- > 100,372, then the market has one more chance to dip close to 100,372 (around 102,000).

If the market continues to make new highs after a strong consolidation, then the adjustment will likely not drop below the 5, 10, and 24 moving averages, meaning it will not fall below 106,000.

From a technical standpoint, considering the facts, the current short-term trend is very strong; either pull back to go long or wait on the sidelines. Absolutely do not attempt to short at the top.

Considering the cost-effectiveness of buying on dips, a pullback above the horizontal support of 106,800 may be a buying opportunity. If it falls below 106,000 and approaches above 100,372 (around 102,000), it may be a medium-short term buying opportunity. Therefore, currently, aside from waiting patiently on the sidelines, there is nothing else to do.

If it is a head and shoulders top, breaking 103000, the market will test 94,000 to 96,000.

This market is really dragging on, the short-term direction is unclear, and we still need to wait for a breakout of this range to determine the short-term trend. It is expected to rise first and then fall during the day. As time goes on, the price of Bitcoin will not remain in this narrow range for long, and I believe a new change will come soon. Currently, we will use 103000 to determine.

The most important concept in trading is position management

This is actually the core of whether you can control the account curve

Many people become victims of the market

A big problem is that they go crazy with leverage during FOMO

A single pullback can lead to total losses

If you have 100,000

And this is money you can afford to lose

Then I suggest you at least split this amount into two parts

If you are a beginner

You should first set your position based on losses

For example, if the price now is 105,000

You take 50,000 to trade

Here you go long

The maximum limit to control your loss is 2%, which is 1,000 yuan

If your stop-loss point is at 103,000

That means your position can only be opened at 1,000 / [(105,000 - 103,000) / 105,000] = 52,631

This is the simplest way to control stop-loss

But definitely 80% of people are unwilling to do this

What you want is the thrill of going all-in

Think carefully about why you came to this market

Is it to provide liquidity or to say goodbye to being a loser early

What market conditions require aggression and which require defense

This is something you should consider after taking the first step well

Trading needs to be logical