Last week, BTB stabilized at 110,000, and after breaking through 112,000 to set a new high, the greater driving force behind the price increase came from the short squeeze in the BTB futures market. The large-scale short positions in BTB being liquidated forced the spot price to rise, rather than the spot market buying pushing up the futures price.

This Monday, BTB retraced from a high of 123,300 to 115,678, and the rebound was noticeably weak, with insufficient market buying support, thus the market is maintaining less than the current price.

Additionally, this week, a significant amount of capital in the market has shifted towards ETH, driving up the ETH/BTC ratio, further weakening the spot market buying for BTC. BTB may experience a wave of downward pressure in the short term, with the retracement potentially falling below 110,000. It is highly likely that the market will drop back down just as it rose last week, returning to the 100,000–110,000 range.

The rapid rise of ETH in the short term has overstretched the market's upward momentum, exhausting the fuel for further increases (short liquidation), making it difficult to maintain the upward trend, and it is also prone to a pullback under the influence of BTB.

The above views are not a short-selling recommendation; short-term/differential position long holdings should try to exit the market and temporarily avoid going long.