老郭创富日记
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4 Months
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The classic line from "The Ballad of the Cold Kiln": "Those with aspirations that reach the sky cannot achieve their goals without luck!" Upon reflection, this resonates with our experiences in the cryptocurrency space.
I believe that every friend who enters the cryptocurrency world does so with the intention of not incurring losses. Everyone dives into this because they see the enormous opportunities hidden behind the significant price fluctuations in the crypto market.
However, to truly earn substantial profits in this ever-changing crypto landscape, there is only one reliable path: to follow the trend. When the favorable trend emerges, we must have the courage to enter boldly; and during periods of market fluctuations, we might as well return to our daily lives, eat well, sleep soundly, and work diligently. After all, trading is not everything in life, and opportunities do not always present themselves.
We just need to decisively buy when the right moment arrives, patiently hold our positions, and then sell calmly when the time is right, and thus we can succeed.
#BTC走势分析
I believe that every friend who enters the cryptocurrency world does so with the intention of not incurring losses. Everyone dives into this because they see the enormous opportunities hidden behind the significant price fluctuations in the crypto market.
However, to truly earn substantial profits in this ever-changing crypto landscape, there is only one reliable path: to follow the trend. When the favorable trend emerges, we must have the courage to enter boldly; and during periods of market fluctuations, we might as well return to our daily lives, eat well, sleep soundly, and work diligently. After all, trading is not everything in life, and opportunities do not always present themselves.
We just need to decisively buy when the right moment arrives, patiently hold our positions, and then sell calmly when the time is right, and thus we can succeed.
#BTC走势分析
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The first target point of the morning thought has been reached, and the thought is continuously being validated.
Translate
回调至进场点位反手进多，已有一千五百余空间！
1. Technical Analysis
The EMA15 moving average is at 90k and continues to expand upwards. The EMA30 moving average provides support at 93k. If it holds above 93k, it is expected to rely on moving average support to continue rising. The daily candlestick shows a doji, indicating balance. If it breaks above 94k, it may form a 'Morning Star' reversal pattern, targeting 95k above.
The MACD indicator shows a top divergence, and if the volume is insufficient, caution is warranted for a pullback to the 93-92k range.
2. Market Sentiment
ETF net inflow for the day was 1.54 billion, a record high, with institutional funds re-entering the market. If this trend continues, it will strengthen market confidence.
3. Macroeconomic Environment
The temporary exemption of tariffs on certain goods by the U.S. has alleviated market concerns about the trade war, but policy uncertainty remains. If U.S.-China negotiations make breakthroughs, it may boost risk appetite. After reaching a historic high recently, some funds may flow back through the 'see-saw effect,' reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven.
4. Recommendations
Buy near 92-92.5k, targeting around 94.5-95k; if it breaks through, look towards 96k.
The EMA15 moving average is at 90k and continues to expand upwards. The EMA30 moving average provides support at 93k. If it holds above 93k, it is expected to rely on moving average support to continue rising. The daily candlestick shows a doji, indicating balance. If it breaks above 94k, it may form a 'Morning Star' reversal pattern, targeting 95k above.
The MACD indicator shows a top divergence, and if the volume is insufficient, caution is warranted for a pullback to the 93-92k range.
2. Market Sentiment
ETF net inflow for the day was 1.54 billion, a record high, with institutional funds re-entering the market. If this trend continues, it will strengthen market confidence.
3. Macroeconomic Environment
The temporary exemption of tariffs on certain goods by the U.S. has alleviated market concerns about the trade war, but policy uncertainty remains. If U.S.-China negotiations make breakthroughs, it may boost risk appetite. After reaching a historic high recently, some funds may flow back through the 'see-saw effect,' reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven.
4. Recommendations
Buy near 92-92.5k, targeting around 94.5-95k; if it breaks through, look towards 96k.
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How to look at the two pancakes in the morning?
1. Core logic
• Technical aspect: 1750 is a strong support, EMA15/30 moving averages provide upward momentum; 1800 is a key resistance, breaking through may challenge 1930 or even 2000
• Sentiment aspect: ETF single-day net inflow of 1.54 billion sets a record, institutional entry; ETH balance hits a new low, concentrated chips
• Macro and ecology: Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are rising, declining US Treasury yields are favorable; Pectra upgrade improves performance, DeFi locked positions are recovering, and the proportion of real asset tokenization is 80%
2. Suggestions
Adjust to around 1740-1720, aiming for 1800-1850, and if broken, aim for 1930
1. Core logic
• Technical aspect: 1750 is a strong support, EMA15/30 moving averages provide upward momentum; 1800 is a key resistance, breaking through may challenge 1930 or even 2000
• Sentiment aspect: ETF single-day net inflow of 1.54 billion sets a record, institutional entry; ETH balance hits a new low, concentrated chips
• Macro and ecology: Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are rising, declining US Treasury yields are favorable; Pectra upgrade improves performance, DeFi locked positions are recovering, and the proportion of real asset tokenization is 80%
2. Suggestions
Adjust to around 1740-1720, aiming for 1800-1850, and if broken, aim for 1930
See original
1. Technical Analysis
The EMA15 moving average is at 90k and continues to expand upwards. The EMA30 moving average provides support at 93k. If it holds above 93k, it is expected to rely on moving average support to continue rising. The daily candlestick shows a doji, indicating balance. If it breaks above 94k, it may form a 'Morning Star' reversal pattern, targeting 95k above.
The MACD indicator shows a top divergence, and if the volume is insufficient, caution is warranted for a pullback to the 93-92k range.
2. Market Sentiment
ETF net inflow for the day was 1.54 billion, a record high, with institutional funds re-entering the market. If this trend continues, it will strengthen market confidence.
3. Macroeconomic Environment
The temporary exemption of tariffs on certain goods by the U.S. has alleviated market concerns about the trade war, but policy uncertainty remains. If U.S.-China negotiations make breakthroughs, it may boost risk appetite. After reaching a historic high recently, some funds may flow back through the 'see-saw effect,' reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven.
4. Recommendations
Buy near 92-92.5k, targeting around 94.5-95k; if it breaks through, look towards 96k.
The EMA15 moving average is at 90k and continues to expand upwards. The EMA30 moving average provides support at 93k. If it holds above 93k, it is expected to rely on moving average support to continue rising. The daily candlestick shows a doji, indicating balance. If it breaks above 94k, it may form a 'Morning Star' reversal pattern, targeting 95k above.
The MACD indicator shows a top divergence, and if the volume is insufficient, caution is warranted for a pullback to the 93-92k range.
2. Market Sentiment
ETF net inflow for the day was 1.54 billion, a record high, with institutional funds re-entering the market. If this trend continues, it will strengthen market confidence.
3. Macroeconomic Environment
The temporary exemption of tariffs on certain goods by the U.S. has alleviated market concerns about the trade war, but policy uncertainty remains. If U.S.-China negotiations make breakthroughs, it may boost risk appetite. After reaching a historic high recently, some funds may flow back through the 'see-saw effect,' reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven.
4. Recommendations
Buy near 92-92.5k, targeting around 94.5-95k; if it breaks through, look towards 96k.
See original
Survival rules in the crypto market: Deconstructing the essence of speculation and breaking through cognition
In this crypto world with no price limits and 24-hour global competition, the market has long revealed the cruel truth with data: 97% of the 2.3 million tokens monitored by CoinMarketCap have a three-year survival rate of less than 1%. When we tear off the gorgeous coat of "value investment", we will find that the entire ecosystem is essentially a multi-dimensional probability game.
1. The gambling stratification of market participants
1. Bottom-level casino (annualized volatility 300%+)
- Altcoin rotation: The average life cycle of a MEME season is 17 days, and the survival rate of the top 10 MEME coins in 6 months is only 34%.
- Contract battlefield: The total contract position of the entire network is 45 billion US dollars, and the average daily liquidation volume reaches 620 million US dollars
1. The gambling stratification of market participants
1. Bottom-level casino (annualized volatility 300%+)
- Altcoin rotation: The average life cycle of a MEME season is 17 days, and the survival rate of the top 10 MEME coins in 6 months is only 34%.
- Contract battlefield: The total contract position of the entire network is 45 billion US dollars, and the average daily liquidation volume reaches 620 million US dollars
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How to view the pancake in the afternoon?
Continue the counter-trend thinking
Morning thought review
Congratulations to the 1500 friends who followed the morning idea of 95-93.5k 👏
Afternoon operation suggestion
Continue to follow the counter-trend thinking in the afternoon near 94.5-95k, with a target looking towards 93-92k#BTC走势分析
Continue the counter-trend thinking
Morning thought review
Congratulations to the 1500 friends who followed the morning idea of 95-93.5k 👏
Afternoon operation suggestion
Continue to follow the counter-trend thinking in the afternoon near 94.5-95k, with a target looking towards 93-92k#BTC走势分析
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From Loss to Profit: A Trading Transformation Through a Revolution in Thinking
After years of crawling through the trading market, I deeply realized that the true lever for stable profits is not those precise technical indicators, but a complete revolution in thinking paradigms.
When I first entered contract trading, I fell into the trap of technical worship. I studied candlestick patterns day and night, repeatedly polished my market sense, and stubbornly sought the so-called 'holy grail of trading', only to sink deeper with frequent operations. The harsh reality of dwindling account numbers finally awakened me - in the world of trading, tactical diligence can never compensate for strategic deficiencies.
When I first entered contract trading, I fell into the trap of technical worship. I studied candlestick patterns day and night, repeatedly polished my market sense, and stubbornly sought the so-called 'holy grail of trading', only to sink deeper with frequent operations. The harsh reality of dwindling account numbers finally awakened me - in the world of trading, tactical diligence can never compensate for strategic deficiencies.
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The bearish outlook in the morning has already taken a wave, preparing to set off for the next round.
How to view the pancake on Sunday?
1. Macroeconomic Policy
Chuan pu changed its stance, stating that we will not make concessions and will not cancel the additional tariffs. It is necessary to pay attention to policy trends; if no clear benefits are released, it may further dampen sentiment.
2. Technical Signals
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: If it continues below the short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Bands open downwards, the downtrend can be confirmed.
KDJ/MACD: Observe the presence of a top divergence signal, indicating weak rebound strength.
3. Suggestions
If it rebounds to around 95-95.5k, the target looks towards around 92-90k. #BTC走势分析
1. Macroeconomic Policy
Chuan pu changed its stance, stating that we will not make concessions and will not cancel the additional tariffs. It is necessary to pay attention to policy trends; if no clear benefits are released, it may further dampen sentiment.
2. Technical Signals
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: If it continues below the short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Bands open downwards, the downtrend can be confirmed.
KDJ/MACD: Observe the presence of a top divergence signal, indicating weak rebound strength.
3. Suggestions
If it rebounds to around 95-95.5k, the target looks towards around 92-90k. #BTC走势分析
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How to view the second cookie on Sunday?
1. Technical Signals:
The daily EMA is still dominated by the downtrend, and the MACD has formed a dead cross below the zero axis. If the price cannot stabilize above $1820, it may continue to move south.
The 4-hour EMA15 support is at 1780; if it breaks, it may accelerate downward to 1740, forming a bearish pattern of 'breaking after consolidation'.
2. Market Sentiment
Recently, whales have been making large-scale moves, reflecting a strong expectation for short-term fluctuations.
Surge in downtrend: The proportion of open shorts has reached 62%, intensifying market speculation.
3. Recommendations
Short from 1840-1860, targeting around 1780-1730. #eth
1. Technical Signals:
The daily EMA is still dominated by the downtrend, and the MACD has formed a dead cross below the zero axis. If the price cannot stabilize above $1820, it may continue to move south.
The 4-hour EMA15 support is at 1780; if it breaks, it may accelerate downward to 1740, forming a bearish pattern of 'breaking after consolidation'.
2. Market Sentiment
Recently, whales have been making large-scale moves, reflecting a strong expectation for short-term fluctuations.
Surge in downtrend: The proportion of open shorts has reached 62%, intensifying market speculation.
3. Recommendations
Short from 1840-1860, targeting around 1780-1730. #eth
See original
How to view the pancake on Sunday?
1. Macroeconomic Policy
Chuan pu changed its stance, stating that we will not make concessions and will not cancel the additional tariffs. It is necessary to pay attention to policy trends; if no clear benefits are released, it may further dampen sentiment.
2. Technical Signals
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: If it continues below the short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Bands open downwards, the downtrend can be confirmed.
KDJ/MACD: Observe the presence of a top divergence signal, indicating weak rebound strength.
3. Suggestions
If it rebounds to around 95-95.5k, the target looks towards around 92-90k. #BTC走势分析
1. Macroeconomic Policy
Chuan pu changed its stance, stating that we will not make concessions and will not cancel the additional tariffs. It is necessary to pay attention to policy trends; if no clear benefits are released, it may further dampen sentiment.
2. Technical Signals
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: If it continues below the short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Bands open downwards, the downtrend can be confirmed.
KDJ/MACD: Observe the presence of a top divergence signal, indicating weak rebound strength.
3. Suggestions
If it rebounds to around 95-95.5k, the target looks towards around 92-90k. #BTC走势分析
See original
How does Erbing look today?
1. Although it went down last night, the wallet is a bit empty. There is a giant whale called 0xSifu, who has recently increased their efforts to go down, and now holds a lot of downing pills, clearly believing that Erbing will go down again.
This year, the ETF for going down Erbing has increased to 247%.
2. Double top pattern: A double top has formed on the 4-hour chart. Once this pattern is confirmed, the probability of a downward move is high.
MACD has reached a new high but the index hasn't followed, and RSI has also reached 70. Alexander.
3. Suggestion
Go up to 1820-1860 and then turn around to go down, with a target floor at 1730-1650#eth .
1. Although it went down last night, the wallet is a bit empty. There is a giant whale called 0xSifu, who has recently increased their efforts to go down, and now holds a lot of downing pills, clearly believing that Erbing will go down again.
This year, the ETF for going down Erbing has increased to 247%.
2. Double top pattern: A double top has formed on the 4-hour chart. Once this pattern is confirmed, the probability of a downward move is high.
MACD has reached a new high but the index hasn't followed, and RSI has also reached 70. Alexander.
3. Suggestion
Go up to 1820-1860 and then turn around to go down, with a target floor at 1730-1650#eth .
See original
How is the market looking today?
1. Last night, the price just broke through 95.5k, but it has been somewhat stagnant in the last couple of days. Although we are at a high level, the sentiment is a bit 'overheated'. For example:
Even though the number of people buying above 95k has surged, there hasn’t been a clear breakthrough, indicating speculation about the future, but in reality, it might be stuck. During such times, it’s easy for the big players to 'cut the leeks'.
2. The market has been testing the 95.5k-96.5k range, which has been tested multiple times before without breaking. Although it’s a new high, the RSI hasn't spiked in tandem and has actually started to decline, indicating weak upward momentum.
3. The market moved up to around 95.7k-95.2k and then started to go down, with a target range at 93k-92k
#BTC走势分析
1. Last night, the price just broke through 95.5k, but it has been somewhat stagnant in the last couple of days. Although we are at a high level, the sentiment is a bit 'overheated'. For example:
Even though the number of people buying above 95k has surged, there hasn’t been a clear breakthrough, indicating speculation about the future, but in reality, it might be stuck. During such times, it’s easy for the big players to 'cut the leeks'.
2. The market has been testing the 95.5k-96.5k range, which has been tested multiple times before without breaking. Although it’s a new high, the RSI hasn't spiked in tandem and has actually started to decline, indicating weak upward momentum.
3. The market moved up to around 95.7k-95.2k and then started to go down, with a target range at 93k-92k
#BTC走势分析
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How to view the big pancake in the evening?
1. Key Technical Aspects
Resistance level: 95000-96000, breaking through may test the 100,000 mark; Support level: 93000-92,000. If 📉 breaks below 92,000 USD, further consolidation may occur.
2. Technical Indicators
MACD: Daily 🧵DIF and DEA continue to rise, but the hourly MACD momentum is weakening, caution against short-term consolidation; RSI: RSI is close to 70, neutral to strong, if it stabilizes, the rise may continue;
3. Suggestions
Consolidate around 93500-92700, target towards 95500-96200. #BTC走势分析
1. Key Technical Aspects
Resistance level: 95000-96000, breaking through may test the 100,000 mark; Support level: 93000-92,000. If 📉 breaks below 92,000 USD, further consolidation may occur.
2. Technical Indicators
MACD: Daily 🧵DIF and DEA continue to rise, but the hourly MACD momentum is weakening, caution against short-term consolidation; RSI: RSI is close to 70, neutral to strong, if it stabilizes, the rise may continue;
3. Suggestions
Consolidate around 93500-92700, target towards 95500-96200. #BTC走势分析
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Different trading goals require entirely different methods and observation periods. For spot trading, you certainly wouldn't refer to a five-minute candlestick chart to decide on buying or selling; you usually need to focus on at least a four-hour chart or even higher timeframes such as daily charts. At this point, you need to consider what method you are currently using for spot trading. Do you have a mature trading system to support it?
Now let's talk about contract trading. What strategy do you use for trading? Which time period do you primarily refer to for market trends? If there is no clear method and you are unsure of when to go long or short, and you do not have a clear understanding of the trading timeframe that suits you, then even with ample funds, it will be difficult to maintain a long-term presence in the market. Therefore, the true cost of trading has never been the profit or loss of a single trade, but rather the ongoing process of learning and enhancing your trading knowledge.
Now let's talk about contract trading. What strategy do you use for trading? Which time period do you primarily refer to for market trends? If there is no clear method and you are unsure of when to go long or short, and you do not have a clear understanding of the trading timeframe that suits you, then even with ample funds, it will be difficult to maintain a long-term presence in the market. Therefore, the true cost of trading has never been the profit or loss of a single trade, but rather the ongoing process of learning and enhancing your trading knowledge.
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How to view the afternoon of the second pancake?
1. Current background of the persimmon field
Today, the Pectra upgrade is initiated, introducing optimization features and enhancing scalability, with the goal of reducing costs. If the upgrade is successfully implemented, there is an expectation of long-term technical improvement.
2. Technical Interpretation
MACD: Daily thread top divergence, but the 4-hour momentum has not weakened, need to be cautious of short-term fluctuations.
RSI: Hourly RSI is close to 70, need to correct the pressure; daily thread RSI 55, neutral with a slight strength.
3. Suggestions
Fluctuate to around 1735-1720, target around 1830-1800
#eth
1. Current background of the persimmon field
Today, the Pectra upgrade is initiated, introducing optimization features and enhancing scalability, with the goal of reducing costs. If the upgrade is successfully implemented, there is an expectation of long-term technical improvement.
2. Technical Interpretation
MACD: Daily thread top divergence, but the 4-hour momentum has not weakened, need to be cautious of short-term fluctuations.
RSI: Hourly RSI is close to 70, need to correct the pressure; daily thread RSI 55, neutral with a slight strength.
3. Suggestions
Fluctuate to around 1735-1720, target around 1830-1800
#eth
See original
How to view Bitcoin in the afternoon?
1. Market Background
💲Weakness and Risk Aversion
The index📉 has fallen to a new low, compounded by a 📉 12% decline since the beginning of the year. Funds are accelerating their flow into Bitcoin and other non-correlated assets, highlighting Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute, which is becoming a safe-haven tool alongside gold.
2. Technical Signals
MACD: Daily🧵DIF and DEA continue to rise, with an expanding histogram, indicating that the momentum is not exhausted;
RSI: Beware of short-term corrections, but if it holds support, upward movement may continue;
OBV: The volume remains high, indicating that the rise is sustainable.
3. Suggestions
If it corrects to around 92500-92000, the target looks towards 94500-96000.
1. Market Background
💲Weakness and Risk Aversion
The index📉 has fallen to a new low, compounded by a 📉 12% decline since the beginning of the year. Funds are accelerating their flow into Bitcoin and other non-correlated assets, highlighting Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute, which is becoming a safe-haven tool alongside gold.
2. Technical Signals
MACD: Daily🧵DIF and DEA continue to rise, with an expanding histogram, indicating that the momentum is not exhausted;
RSI: Beware of short-term corrections, but if it holds support, upward movement may continue;
OBV: The volume remains high, indicating that the rise is sustainable.
3. Suggestions
If it corrects to around 92500-92000, the target looks towards 94500-96000.
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