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Key metrics: (14Apr 4pm HK -> 21Apr 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +3.6% ($84,450-> $87,500) , ETH/USD -1.9% ($1,620-> $1,590)
Another week on from the test below $75k (which was the post-election pivot level) and we have received further confirmation that the double-bottom has marked a strong support/base, with price action this week holding cleanly above the $80–81.5k resistance/support level. Our base case is that the market will hold within this higher $82–90k range for the next few sessions, if not weeks

We are coming up in the first 100 days of Trump's 2nd presidency, but the geopolitical world already feels unrecognizable versus just a few months ago. It's no longer a question of whether the US will decouple with the world, but how, and the US's 'exhorbitant privilege' when it comes to the USD reserve status is legitimately being challenged.Correlations are breaking, capital flows are reversing, Bitcoin is (finally) starting to diverge from equities, the President threatening to treat the FOMC

Key metrics: (31Mar 4pm HK -> 14Apr 4pm HK)
BTC/USD +3.0% ($82,000-> $84,450) , ETH/USD -11.1% ($1,800-> $1,620)

Technical price action was quite constructive in the past 2-weeks amidst all the cross-market chaos, with BTCUSD seemingly putting in a double bottom last week right ahead of $74k, which was the initial resistance zone on 6Nov24 where spot stabilised after the Republican sweep. Subsequently we broke through some more medium-term downtrend from the end-Jan highsand now find ourselves

After a wild week of intense geopolitical aggression from the US vs the rest of the world, we ended the week on a strong note as President Trump appears to have made a significant concession with a stated exemption on smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices from reciprocal tariffs. Specifically, the US Customs and Border Patrol also said that the goods would be excluded from Trump’s 10% global tariff on most countries.
The Chinese government responded positively and stated the move

Did someone say Liberation Day? Or was it Liquidation Day?
Macro assets crashed across the board with the Nasdaq retracing nearly 25% peak to trough, and markets showing ominous signs of a modern ‘Black Monday’ with US equities trading down -4% this morning, and China/HK stocks trading down -9% as of the time of writing. This most recent leg of the sell-off was driven by China’s retaliatory action on the US (eg. Rare earths) but without announcing a domestic stimulus to offset. China announced a

Key metrics: (24Mar 4pm HK -> 31Mar 4pm HK):
BTC/USD -1.8% ($83,500-> $82,000) , ETH/USD -5.3% ($1,900-> $1,800)

While we experienced some choppiness over the weekend, for the most part BTC has been fairly well contained in the broad $81–88k range, with realised vol declining to mid 30s for the last 7 days. ETF outflows appear to be stabilizing here, though we suspect we will see more outflows if we get back above $90k without sufficient upward momentum. Otherwise there appears to be continued

Risk assets endured a terrible end to a rough week with US equities trading down -2 to -3% on terrible breadth, CDS spreads hitting recent wides (+20bp on high yield), crypto prices breaking back to YTD lows (BTC <$82k), treasuries bull steepened, and spot gold hitting record highs as the primary risk-off hedge. Tech stocks were hammered (Mag-7 down -3.5% on Friday) while defensive names outperformed, as risk-takers took shelter ahead of Trump’s imminent ‘liberation day’ announcements this Wedne

Key metrics: (17Mar 4pm HK -> 24Mar 4pm HK)
BTC/USD +4.1% ($83,500-> $86,900) , ETH/USD +8.9% ($1,900-> $2,070)

Realised volatility in BTC has finally rolled over this last week, with the market trading between $81.5–87.5k for the week in a rather contained/orderly fashion. Today the market appears to be testing some downward-trend resistance from the end-February highs. A clearance through $87.5–88k would open us up to a re-test of resistance at $91k, above which a break would be confirmed at

“April 2nd is going to be liberation day for America. We’ve been ripped off by every country in the world, friend and foe,” — Trump said in the Oval Office Friday.
Markets settled down over the past week as risk assets steadied after a few weeks of extreme selling pressures, and the Trump administration behaving in a relatively muted manner as of late. However, in a prepared speech from the Oval Office on Friday, Trump stated that they are preparing a “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on Apri

Key metrics: (10Mar 4pm HK -> 17Mar 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +1.5% ($82,300-> $83,500) , ETH/USD -8.2% ($2,070-> $1,900)

BTCUSD spot remained heavy over the last week but we have finally begun to see normalisation lower in realised volatility as we settle into the $80-85k range. It’s worth noting we made a fresh local low last leek which leaves us waiting and watching the price action for the next few days to obtain clues as to direction of the next major move in spot. Given the extended period of high

Last week was another rollercoaster ride in asset markets, though the market saw a decent bounce on Thu/Fri after registering extreme oversold readings on various technicals (CBOE put-call ratios spiked to the highest levels since last summer). Limited tariff and geopolitical news (for now), an averted US government shut-down, and extreme over-old readings on US equities provided the stage for a 2%+ bounce on Friday, albeit on low volumes.
According to Bloomberg, it took only 16 days for SPX to

Key metrics: (3Mar 4pm HK -> 10Mar 4pm HK):
BTC/USD -10.7% ($92,200-> $82,300) , ETH/USD -14.8% ($2,430-> $2,070)

Continued high volatility as the market reacted to a series of headlines and events involving Crypto last week, but we ultimately failed to gain a footing in spot and we remain caught in the broad range, with support down from $79–73k and resistance above from $89–93kWe had been hoping that last week’s test of the lows and quick reversal would have marked an end to this corrective p

FAFO -- GeopoliticsFor those of you not familiar with the lexicon, 'FAFO' is an endearing acronym for ‘F— around and find out,’ and is probably the most apt description we have of the current global landscape.
With President Trump off to a volatile start in his 2nd term, perhaps even beyond what his most fervent supporters might have expected, US asset markets have been riled as sentiment has been sourced on his extreme tariff and military negotiations with USA's former and current allies, while

Key metrics: (24Feb 4pm HK -> 3Mar 4pm HK):
BTC/USD -3.9% ($95,900 -> $92,200) , ETH/USD -14.1% ($2,725-> $2,430)

The past week delivered some quite unexpected surges in volatility, initially on the downside as the support $89–91k that the market had been leaning on since the Election finally gave way and we traded down to $79k. Interestingly when viewing this move holistically, it could be interpreted as the consummation of the corrective and sideways price action seen since late Nov / Dec las

Oh boy where do we start. This week’s commentary is going to be tricky to write given all the noises going on.
Starting with crypto, after breaking through the post-election gap at around ~$92k on BTC, Bitcoin prices collapsed in a straight line down $78k last week with over 3 billion of long futures liquidation as reported by coinglass. BTC was on pace for the worst monthly drop since June 2022, with ETFs seeing the largest monthly outflows in history (-$2.5B in last week alone).

Crypto sentim

Just as the FTX-saga was finally winding-up with deposits being returned to victims, crypto was jolted by another shocker as Bybit disclosed that it was hacked with a ~$1.5bln theft of one of their Ethereum cold-wallets, with Lazarus group (North Korea) being named as the culprit.
With over 400k ETH stolen, this markets the largest crypto theft of all time, and puts the Bybit hacker as one of the largest ETH holders in the world, ranking above the likes of Vitalik, Fidelity, and the Ethereum fou

Key metrics: (17Feb 4pm HK -> 24Feb 4pm HK):
· BTC/USD -0.3% ($96,150 -> $95,900) , ETH/USD +1.3% ($2,690-> $2,725)

BTC/USD Spot Technical Outlook:
· After another week of low realised volatility, the spot market managed to chew through some offers at the top of the trading channel and on Friday began a test of the $99–100k resistance level, before the Bybit hack news triggered a large liquidation, as folks likely pulled out collateral from Bybit and this selling flow triggered stops. The marke

Macro markets have settled down into a sleepy range market, with sentiment trending back into the familiar ‘goldilocks’ mode with both equity and bond prices grinding higher on lukewarm economic data and falling volatility.
The Trump administration has continued with their latest tariff ruminations, though the impact on markets appear to be fading as the bark appears to be worse than the bite. The latest reciprocal tariffs have been pushed back to April 1st, with Canada, Mexico, India, and China

Key metrics: (3Feb 4pm HK -> 10Feb 4pm HK):
BTC/USD +2.5% ($95,100 -> $97,500) , ETH/USD +2.3% ($2,580-> $2,640)

The liquidation move down to $91k last Monday was quickly reversed, with a squeeze to $102k initially, but this gave way to somewhat tedious sideways/wedge-style price action with realised volatility compressing. The compressing short term ranges are likely to draw us to an inflection point over the upcoming trading sessions. Below here there is decent support from $96k down to $93k

The start of 2025 has been marred by a series of false starts and unresolved price action, with risk assets struggling for direction after the game-changing Deepseek narrative and the on-and-off tariff threats from President Trump.
Economic data currently taking somewhat of a backseat with the latest NFP headline coming in slightly lower than expected in January, but that was offset by a drop in the unemployment rate to 4% and leading to a muted risk reaction. Fed fund futures are pricing only 9