柒柒59313

Damn it, I glanced at my phone in a daze and was scared to sweat all over. Luckily, luckily!!! The data comes out tomorrow, and I don't know how many long positions will be liquidated!

🈹🈹🈹Trump has struck again, drug tariffs are coming soon!

1. What is a tariff? Let’s use an analogy 🌰

• Simply put: it's like asking someone in India to buy you cheap medicine, and suddenly Trump says, “You have to pay a 25-dollar toll to enter the U.S!”

• Result: The price of the medicine goes from 100 dollars to 125 dollars, and Americans either have to pay more or can’t buy it at all.

2. Who is hit hardest? India and Switzerland are devastated.

• India: The largest producer of generic drugs (cheap versions of patented drugs) in the world; 70% of America's generic drugs are imported from India. With the new tariffs, orders from Indian drug manufacturers are cut in half.

• Switzerland: Top pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and Roche face tariffs on cancer and diabetes drugs, causing a dramatic increase in costs for U.S. hospitals.

3. Why do Americans suffer too?

• Soaring drug prices: Insulin and cancer drugs could rise by 30%, and chronic illness patients may spend hundreds of extra dollars each month.

• Playing tricks: Trump says “If drug companies move to America, they’ll be tax-exempt,” but building factories takes 3-5 years, so it won’t help in the short term.

4. Trump’s true calculations 🧮

• Shifting blame: The U.S. can’t manage its own drug abuse problem and is shifting the blame to “foreign drugs being too cheap.”

• Gaining votes: Workers in the Midwest “Rust Belt” believe “Trump is helping us get jobs,” but in reality, drug companies won’t return.

• Suppressing competitors: Generic drugs from China and India threaten the profits of American pharmaceutical companies, so tariffs are used to protect domestic giants.

5. What should ordinary people do? Remember these 3 points:

1️⃣ Stock up on medicines: Chinese Americans in the U.S. should quickly stockpile chronic illness medications; they may be out of stock or expensive starting in April.

2️⃣ Beware of counterfeit drugs: The black market may see inferior generic drugs; taking the wrong medication is scarier than price increases.

3️⃣ The costs will be passed on: Pharmaceutical companies won’t lose; ultimately, price increases will burden insurance and patients.

In summary: Trump’s actions are causing Indian drug manufacturers to cry, American patients to suffer, while only pharmaceutical shareholders are laughing slyly. 😏

The morning drop was terrifying, but fortunately, I had a limit order at 2560 in advance, currently in profit. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, so stay safe everyone, good luck!

SUI vs SEI: Market and Technology Comparison
Market Position
SUI Market Cap $11.9 billion (Rank 12), far exceeding SEI's $1.1 billion (Rank 68), reflecting stronger institutional support and market recognition for SUI.
The SUI community (1 million fans) is slightly larger than SEI (791,000). SEI has a higher circulating supply ratio (53% vs SUI's 33%), indicating stronger liquidity.
Technical Architecture
SUI: Object-based model, Narwhal and Mysticeti consensus achieve sub-second finality, suitable for high throughput scenarios with low fees.
SEI: Based on Cosmos SDK, Twin-Turbo consensus optimizes DeFi trading, V2 introduces SeiDB and parallel execution, featuring a native central limit order book.
Development Ecosystem
SUI: Uses Sui Move (based on Rust), secure but steep learning curve, 1,400 monthly active developers, does not support EVM.
SEI: Supports CosmWasm and EVM, compatible with Ethereum and Cosmos, $10 million incentive fund to promote ecosystem growth.
Trading and Ecosystem
SUI: TVL $1.6 billion, DEX daily trading volume $265 million, integrates USDC, covering DeFi, NFT, RWA.
SEI: TVL $492 million, focused on trading platforms (like Vortex), expands into gaming through Galxe. SEI price consolidates at support level, RSI neutral, waiting for a rebound.
Conclusion
SUI leads with market cap, ecosystem breadth, and institutional support, suitable for multi-scenario applications. SEI focuses on high-frequency trading and the Cosmos ecosystem, has strong liquidity and short-term potential. Investors should pay attention to SUI's long-term value and SEI's price rebound. Developers may choose SEI for EVM compatibility or choose SUI for security.
#SUI #SEI

Analyze Dogecoin (DOGE)
The first wave of consolidation for Dogecoin occurred last Tuesday, having previously failed to break through the direct resistance level of $0.25. After falling below $0.21 and shaking off weakness, Dogecoin is likely to break through this level. However, Dogecoin may touch the resistance level multiple times before breaking through.
Once it finally breaks through, Dogecoin is expected to rebound strongly to the $0.4 mark, which was last seen at the end of January this year, stemming from its previous explosive rise.
The last time Dogecoin touched this key level, it triggered a significant pullback in the following months, only regaining support in April. If Dogecoin breaks through the $0.4 level again, the upward momentum may continue as buying pressure increases.
As Dogecoin's price is about to welcome a new round of increases, $0.26 will be a key resistance level. This level remains the most important resistance point for Dogecoin. Breaking through this level may signal the beginning of an uptrend.

Analyze Ripple (XRP)
XRP has performed exceptionally well over the past year. The years 2024 and 2025 will be recorded as the best two years for this altcoin.
In the past 12 months, this altcoin has surged by 389%. Earlier this year, the asset soared to a high of $3.39. Despite the significant increase, the asset has failed to return to its historical high of $3.84. The market remains quite optimistic, anticipating a substantial rise far above the peak for this asset.
How much has XRP increased this month?
In the past month, this altcoin has risen by 14.63%. The asset's trading price dropped to $2.04, then surged to a high of $2.65. In the past week, XRP also experienced a tumultuous period, with its price soaring by 12.40%. Currently, XRP's trading price is $2.35, having dropped by 5.16% in the last 24 hours. Unfortunately, XRP's trading price is 35% lower than its historical high price of $3.84. If the XRP price doubles, its peak will reach $4.90.
Although the market believes XRP could reach this level within the year, price prediction firms are still urging the market to remain patient.
The future outlook for the fourth-largest cryptocurrency (XRP) is bright. XRP's price is expected to peak at $4.90 in 2026. This rise will occur between October and November.
#XRP

On April 26, my teacher recommended five cryptocurrencies to everyone. How much have they increased today? Let's take a look.
BTC $93,835 increased to $104,373 Increase of 11.23%
AVAX $21.686 increased to $24 Increase of 10.67%
SUI $3.35 increased to $4.078 Increase of 21.55%
DOGE $0.18 increased to $0.221 Increase of 22.78%
BCH $354.95 increased to $431 Increase of 21.5%
This bull market still holds promise, keep up the pace, enjoy drinks and meat.

Why are Bitcoin spot and contract prices inconsistent?

Definitions of Spot and Contract
Spot: Transactions settled and delivered immediately at the current market price, trading Bitcoin itself, requiring full funding.

Contract: Based on future price expectations, trading price fluctuations, only requiring margin (with leverage), can be held long-term, with no fixed delivery date.

Reasons for Price Differences
Spot and contract prices should theoretically converge around Bitcoin, but in reality, there are differences, mainly due to:

Market Sentiment:
Bullish: Expecting prices to rise, increasing demand for contract purchases, contract prices > spot prices.

Bearish: Expecting prices to fall, significant selling pressure on contracts, contract prices < spot prices.

Leverage Characteristics: Contract margin trading requires low capital usage, attracting speculators, making prices susceptible to emotional fluctuations.

Liquidity Differences: Spot and contracts are independent markets, with different depths and liquidity; large trades can lead to price deviations.

Market Nature: Spot trading involves Bitcoin itself, while contract trading involves price expectations; participant behaviors differ, making prices difficult to match at all times.

Why is the Price Difference Limited?

Funding Rate: Exchange adjustment mechanisms; when contract prices are high, longs pay shorts, and vice versa, facilitating price convergence.

Arbitrage Behavior: When the price difference is too large, traders profit by selling high and buying low (between contracts and spots), narrowing the price gap.

Market Efficiency: Fast information dissemination allows arbitrageurs to quickly intervene, preventing long-term large price differences.

Summary

Spot trading involves Bitcoin itself, while contract trading involves price fluctuations. The price difference arises from sentiment, leverage, liquidity, and market differences. Funding rates and arbitrage ensure the price difference is limited, maintaining dynamic market balance.

#BTC☀

Tips for Averaging Down:

Understand the operation of "buying more as prices drop" in 10 seconds!

I. 3 Key Principles for Averaging Down

Principle 1: The trend is your father; averaging down against the trend = giving away your head

• Key saying:

“Averaging down in a downtrend is like shouting ‘buy more’ on the way down from a building — BTC drops to $30,000, and the more you average down, the more you lose, while the market makers laugh crazily! Only average down on the types that your father approves (when there’s a pullback in an uptrend or at the floor price in a sideways market)!”

Principle 2: Position sizing, don’t go all in like a fool

• Life-saving mantra:

“Add 1 unit when it drops 10%, add 2 units when it drops 20%, add 3 units when it drops 30% — but don’t exceed 30% in a single asset, otherwise, if the market makers drop it 50%, you’ll be kneeling!”

Principle 3: Stop-loss to protect your capital, don't be a fool begging to break even

• Soul-crushing truth:

“Averaging down without a stop-loss = running naked into a bear market — Averaging down BTC to $10,000? Immediately cut your position, don’t wait for the market makers to take your lifeline!”

II. 2 Major Techniques to Avoid Pitfalls in Averaging Down

Technique 1: Don’t average down on “scam coins”

• Aggressive definition:

“Scam coins = products with no ecosystem, no technology, and no consensus — like $SHIB, which can drop 90% and then drop another 90%, you average down on it? You might as well just burn money to keep warm!”

• Pitfall guide:

“Only average down on BTC/ETH or leading coins in mainstream sectors (AI, DeFi) — Shitcoins? Forget it!”

Technique 2: Don’t use your life savings to average down

• Soul-crushing truth:

“Averaging down using rent money = using your wife’s savings as firewood — BTC drops to $20,000, are you going all in with your living expenses? If it rises, it’s pure luck; if it drops, you’ll be sleeping on the street!”

• Life-saving rule:

“Averaging down funds ≤ 30% of total capital — if it drops, it won’t hurt too much, if it rises, you’ll make a little profit; steady as an old dog!

【Aggressive Three-Word Mantra for Averaging Down】

“Father approves, average down in batches, use stop-loss, avoid scam coins, preserve capital!”

(Can’t do it? Then wait to be harvested by the market like leeks, and let the market makers showcase the performance art of “the more you average down, the more you lose”!)

Have you ever experienced such a situation with your past investments? If you didn't sell all of your coins when they were rising, you start making various excuses for yourself when the coins drop. You might say, 'I'll wait for it to bounce back and sell,' and then when the coin drops a bit more, you say, 'Okay, I can't sell it now; it's dropped too much.' When it drops further, you might say, 'I'll sell when it rises to the last peak price,' but it never rises back to the original price, and you think, 'Since it has dropped to this price, how much lower can it go?' So you keep waiting. Eventually, it drops again, and you get confused, thinking, 'I'm not waiting anymore; it's a waste of time; I'll look for new opportunities,' and then you cut your losses. Is this your usual operation in the past? Many coins you bought initially made a profit, which boosted your confidence, but ultimately the initial profits were returned to the market along with your capital. Yet you still have confidence because you've seen the coins you bought make a profit, even though they eventually fell again; the psychological strength from having owned them is still quite powerful. At this point, you should look back at your history and see where your profits went and why you couldn't hold onto them. Perhaps the best time to hold onto them was when they were growing and expanding, and maybe you need to let go of the desire to pursue the highest and best, believing that just being able to do so is already quite good.

Awakening of Retail Investors in the Cryptocurrency Market:

I. The Truth Behind 90% Losses: Inner Demons at Play, Possessed by Gambling Spirit

After making profits, greed spirals out of control, leveraging everything, ultimately leading to zero; the average daily trader has a loss probability three times that of calm investors (dopamine-driven "continuous betting" = suicidal gambling).

II. The Main Force's Harvesting Techniques: False Signals Trap, Emotional Cycle Nets

• "Golden Cross/Head and Shoulders Bottom Trap":

The main force deliberately creates false technical signal patterns, cashing out at high positions, while retail investors get trapped.

True bottom = official subtly conveying "confidence" (such as "responding with ease"), but 99% of people panic sell while chasing highs in the "get rich quick" calls.

III. Breaking the Deadlock Mentality: Being in Cash is Profitable, News is Poison

• "Cash Training":

• Actively stay away from the market (not watching charts, not refreshing candlesticks), wait for policy bottom signals (news broadcast's "restrained expressions") to enter with half position and capture cyclical dividends.

The real wealth code is hidden in the "official restrained expressions" (like "plenty of confidence"), but 99% of people only believe the "get rich lies" from KOLs.

IV. Iron Laws of Survival: Probability × Game Theory × Ecological Thinking

• "Three Principles of Certainty":

1. Probability Thinking: Only engage in high win-rate trades (accumulate BTC in bear markets, exchange for elastic assets in bull markets);

2. Game Theory Thinking: The opponent is the main force, only earn money from "cognitive gaps" (preemptively ambush policy cycles);

3. Ecological Thinking: Do not go against the trend (retreat in bull markets, build positions in bear markets)

• Trade no more than 3 times a month, remain in cash 90% of the time;

• Unconditional stop loss for any single loss > 10%;

• Reject new gimmicks, only pursue "policy bottoms", "liquidity turning points", and other certain opportunities.

"Itching hands lead to losses, inner demons are the casino; being in cash is a practice, less action preserves IQ.

"When the news broadcast mentions 'confidence', close the position after half entry and shut down; when KOL calls for 'getting rich', immediately liquidate and exit.

"Gamble less once, suffer one less cut—being in cash is the shield, cognition is the spear."

(Guide to Avoiding Pitfalls: Next time you see "Golden Cross" or "Head and Shoulders Bottom", silently think: "This is bait from the main force, not my dish"—not gambling in the casino is winning.

1. Loss = Inner Demons > IQ;

2. Main Force Harvesting = Technical Illusion + Emotional Cycle, requires reverse operation;

3. Adhere to "Cash Training" + "News Broadcast Code" + "Three Principles of Certainty", change your fate.)

Market Breakdown: Precision Sniping Guide for 'Cut Loss' Short-Term Hunting 🎯

I. Violent Market Breakdown: The 'Meat Grinder' Pattern of Double Killing

1️⃣ Top Divergence Confirmation

• The 96000 level has been tested three times without success, bullish energy is exhausted, combined with a huge long upper shadow, forming a 'High Spike Trap for Bulls'

• 95500 top divergence + KDJ overbought dead cross, the 'Starting Gun' for the bearish counterattack has been fired

2️⃣ The Path of Retracement

• Fibonacci 0.618 support level at 93700 (Key Bull-Bear Watershed)

• 94200-93800 is the previous bullish chip accumulation area, with strong support

• 95500 will turn into the 'Air Force Command Post', any rebound is a sniping position

II. Double-Edged Sword Strategy: High Short Low Long 'Blood on the Blade' Manual

🔥 Bearish Main Attack Direction

• Entry Point: 95000-95400 (Pending Order Sniping Area)

• Stop Loss Setting: 95700 (If broken, bulls will retaliate)

• Target Levels:

① Primary Target 94200 (Short-Term Take Profit Level)

② Secondary Target 93700 (Ultimate Harvesting Level, if broken on high volume, halve the short position)

🛡️ Bullish Ambush Plan

• Entry Point: 94200-93800 (Accumulation Area in Batches)

• Stop Loss Setting: 93500 (If broken, trend turns bearish)

• Target Levels:

① Primary Target 95000 (Quick In and Out)

② Secondary Target 95500 (Bullish Trap Area, clear positions upon touching)

III. Survival Rules: Short-Term 'Three No Principles'

1️⃣ No Holding Positions

• If the 15-minute line breaks the key level, leave the market within 3 minutes (Market Makers specifically target 'Ostrich Heads')

2️⃣ No Chasing Up or Down

• If it rebounds near 95300 and volume decreases, directly reverse to open a short position (Don’t believe in 'V-shaped Reversal' nonsense)

3️⃣ No Greed for the Last Bite

• If 93700 shows a Doji + volume contraction, immediately take profit on the short position (Market Makers are laying mines)

IV. Blood Warning: Beware of the 'Guillotine' Pattern

If the following signals occur, immediately clear positions and wait:

1. Daily MACD dead cross + increased trading volume

2. 93700 support level breached by a long bearish candle

3. Binance perpetual contract funding rate suddenly turns negative (Warning of Bull Liquidation Wave)

A new week, a new beginning, new hope, wonderful things happening early in the morning, does this also indicate that from now on my luck will be very good? Grateful for the help from my good teachers and friends, it's really great to have you ❤️❤️❤️

K-line trends are inextricably linked to the manipulation of various types of market makers. They operate openly and secretly, controlling coin price trends through advantages in capital, information, technology, and public opinion. The following image explains the methods and classifications of market makers in the cryptocurrency space!

Making money relies on resilience, not just intelligence

Many people have decent abilities, but can't make money. Why? To put it simply, it's because their inner drive is too weak to handle challenges. Ability is like a good gun in your hands; if you're too scared to pull the trigger, even the best gun is just scrap metal. Stop using excuses like 'I'm not capable' or 'I'm afraid.' If you want to make money, you need to endure, bear the weight, and take risks—this is the 'key to success' in making money.

1. Struggling to make money? Most likely, it's because you've already given up in your heart

Do these scenarios sound familiar to you?

• After posting 10 videos without any likes, you feel instantly defeated.

• After a month of side hustling with no sales, you think it's hopeless.

• You get a couple of negative comments, and your confidence shatters.

• If your partner is unreliable, you feel unlucky.

• Tasks are left unfinished while you procrastinate.

2. People who can make money are all 'tough individuals'

• Creating content: At first, no one is watching, but you keep going regardless of what others say.

• Side hustle: If no one is paying attention and orders are few, don't stop; keep figuring out how to improve.

• Doing business: If you're rejected or insulted, act like you didn't hear it and keep selling!

3. The secret to the tenacity needed for making money: endure, refine, confront

• Endure: If you've worked hard for a long time without results but can still keep going, it's like walking in darkness, knowing that there is light ahead.

• Refine: Knowing that your work might not become popular, you are still willing to spend time optimizing the details, like carving jade; progress may be slow, but you don't give up.

• Confront: Even after being insulted and criticized, you keep selling and setting up stalls; have a thick skin and don't take negative feedback to heart.

In short: The real money-makers are those who can get knocked down by life and still stand up to shout, 'Where's my next order?' With this kind of resilient spirit, whether it's a side hustle, self-media, or even selling cold noodles, you can achieve something remarkable—maybe even open a chain store!

Babies of the empty ether, how are you? It's really going to play me to death!

🌍China Halts Purchases of US LNG, Energy War Escalates! (Condensed Version)

1. Core Event: China Suspends Purchases of US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

1. Timeline:

• Over Ten Weeks: Since February, aside from one ship rerouting to Bangladesh, no other US LNG vessels have docked at Chinese ports.

2. Direct Cause:

• US Tariffs: Tariffs ranging from 15% to 49% have made US LNG uncompetitive for Chinese buyers.

2. US-China Energy Game Escalates: From Trade to Strategic Confrontation

1. China Turns to Russia:

• Analysts point out that China may increase LNG imports from Russia, weakening US influence in the Asia-Pacific energy market.

2. Historical Operations:

• China previously resold US LNG to Europe for profit (2022), but long-term procurement contracts face renegotiation pressure.

3. Global Energy Landscape Transformation: Domino Effect

1. Opportunity for Russia:

• If China continues to shift towards Russian energy, Russia could become the biggest winner, further solidifying its energy export position.

2. US Setback:

• The US LNG industry will lose this key market in China, potentially triggering overcapacity and a price war.

3. European Chain Reaction:

• If China reduces resales of US LNG, European energy supplies may face new uncertainties!

4. Future Outlook: How Will the Energy War Spread?

1. China's Strategy:

• Diversified Supply: Continue to expand LNG imports from Russia, Qatar, and other countries to reduce dependence on the US.

• Long-term Contract Negotiation: May leverage US tariff pressure to compel the US to renegotiate procurement terms.

2. US Response:

• Policy Adjustment: Should it remove tariffs to regain the Chinese market? Or turn to alternative buyers in Europe, India, etc.

3. Global Impact:

• Energy Price Volatility: An imbalance in the LNG market may drive up global energy prices.

• Geopolitical Risk: The US-China energy game may exacerbate tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

China's suspension of US LNG purchases marks an escalation in the US-China energy war, with Russia potentially becoming the biggest winner and the global energy landscape facing reshaping.

🔥Key Points: How will China balance energy security and trade interests? Can the US reverse the decline in LNG exports? How will the global energy market respond to this game?

🔥🔥🔥 The madman from the river is dropping bombs

1. Unlocking the storm: 40 million TRUMP tokens about to be released

1. Key dates:

• April 18: 40 million tokens (20% of total circulation) released at once, valued at approximately $321 million.

• Follow-up: $3.8 million unlocked daily over the next three years, fully unlocked by April 2028.

2. Impact:

• Circulation increases by 20%, insiders (Trump's team) take 80% of the tokens, and continue to funnel money into their wallets daily.

2. Bull vs Bear: Will it fall or rise?

Bearish reasons

1. Explosion of selling pressure: 40 million tokens dropping could cause a price crash.

2. Insiders cashing out: Trump's team's wallet will receive millions of dollars; will they sell?

3. Retail investors retreating: The number of holding addresses dropped from 800,000 to 637,000, confidence has crumbled.

Bullish reasons

1. Big money bottom fishing: On April 16, someone spent $5 million to buy 630,000 tokens, betting on a rebound.

2. Trump causing a stir: Rumors suggest he wants to start a real estate crypto project, which could drive prices up.

3. Institutions supporting the market: Institutions like Wintermute are market-making, potentially raising prices.

3. Historical cases: Two outcomes after meme coin unlocks

1. OM token goes to zero: Crashes 90% after unlocking, completely dead.

2. SHIB's comeback: The community burns tokens and builds ecology, price rebounds by 300%.

4. Conclusion: Short-term danger, long-term outlook

1. Short-term: The release of 40 million tokens could lead to a price crash; retail investors should run.

2. Long-term: Salvation relies on Trump's policies or ecological innovations (like DeFi, NFTs).

3. Operational advice:

• Risk-averse: Don’t touch it.

• Bold: If it drops below $7, take a small position to bet on a rebound, but set stop-loss limits quickly.

• Long-term holding: Keep an eye on Trump and community actions, adjust as needed.

In summary:

The release of TRUMP tokens is a “life-and-death situation” for meme coins; short-term focuses on selling pressure, while long-term depends on whether Trump and the ecology can save it.

(Risk warning: Pure analysis, not investment advice; invest with caution!)

🔥 Points of concern: Will Trump support the market? Can the community save itself?

Old Bao and Mr. Chuan's conversation is like two silly fools! 🤣

Trump (angry version): "Old Bao! Please sign my resignation letter?"

Powell (proud face): "Your flattery is useless, this governor refuses to be fired!"

Trump (instantly becomes a repeater): "Please! Please!"

Powell (coldly rejects): "NO! You can't touch my Federal Reserve!"

Soul commentary:

1. Independence of the Federal Reserve: The term of the Federal Reserve Chair is 14 years (Powell just got re-elected in 2022), and the president has no direct power to fire them, only to "softly persuade or wait for the term to end."

2. Trump's pain: In 2018, Powell's interest rate hike caused a collapse in the U.S. stock market, and Trump publicly scolded him, saying "you must have been kicked by a donkey," but he could only stare in disbelief.

3. Real-life "House of Cards": Federal Reserve ≈ "financial nuclear button", touching it means declaring war on Wall Street, Powell: the more you beg me, the less I will do it!

Netizen's brilliant comments:

• "Trump: I'm begging you! Powell: No, you beg me! — Loop play ♻️"

• "Federal Reserve: My fate is determined by me, not by you!"

• "Suggest making a TV series called 'Federal Reserve: This Pot I Won't Carry'"

Knowledge point: Federal Reserve = "guardian of the economic lifeline", the president can only "talk big", but cannot "take action" 👊

🌹🌹🌹2025.4.18 Friday | Market Analysis:

1. Today's Key Market Data

1. BTC (Bitcoin)

• 4-hour K-line Resistance Level: 85,487～86,894

• 4-hour K-line Support Level: 83,256～81,666

• Trend for periods under 12 hours: Multi-period resonance bullish trend, short-term buy on dips.

2. ETH (Ethereum)

• 4-hour K-line Resistance Level: 1,619～1,683

• 4-hour K-line Support Level: 1,540～1,486

1. Core Views on BTC

• Sideways Fluctuation: The 4-hour K-line is rising with low volume within a box pattern; be cautious of resistance levels above (85,487～86,894), and avoid chasing highs.

2. Core Views on ETH

• Linked to BTC: The trend is highly correlated with BTC, with the 4-hour K-line support level (1,540～1,486) being a key point of bullish and bearish contention; if it breaks down, be aware of downward risks.

1. Contract Trading

• Long Position Ambush Point: Lightly go long when BTC retraces to 83,256～81,666 and ETH retraces to 1,540～1,486, setting a stop-loss of 3%-5%.

• Short Position Risk: The current bullish trend prevails; shorts should be cautious and only consider shorting after breaking resistance levels (e.g., BTC breaking 86,894).

Risk Management

• Stop-Loss Strategy: Strict stop-loss for contract trading; for spot trading, it is recommended to build positions in batches to avoid heavy single-position weight.

• Unwinding Techniques: If trapped, you can refer to the 'Three Unwinding Methods' (averaging down, swing trading, stop-loss after trend reversal).

------

4. Market Sentiment and Risk Alerts

1. Macroeconomic Factors

• The Federal Reserve's statement of “no interest rate cuts” continues to suppress market risk appetite; be wary of black swan events (e.g., escalation of Trump's tariff policies).

• Institutional Funds: BlackRock ETF IBIT net inflow slows down, Grayscale GBTC continues net outflow, resulting in a divergence in institutional fund flows.

• Mid-line Layout: Gradually build positions near 82,541 for BTC, targeting around 88,000～90,000.

Key Level Diagram:

BTC:
Resistance Level: 85,487～86,894 ⬆️
Support Level: 83,256～81,666 ⬇️

ETH:
Resistance Level: 1,619～1,683 ⬆️
Support Level: 1,540～1,486 ⬇️

Operation Motto:

Do not chase highs in a bullish trend, dare to go long on support during retracements;

Take profit before resistance levels, stop-loss on reversal after breaking through!