指标王子-霖哥
2014 年从事互联网金融，2017 年接触了解区块链币龄 7 年，极度热爱区块链的技术！对数据分析以及二级 k 线指标有独到的逻辑和实盘操作，很多币拿到了不错的结果，喜欢短线操作，希望自己能够帮助小白少走弯路同样希望结交更多战友相互交流学习。
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I just came across a very interesting perspective from Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan.
He said: The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin may have become ineffective, and the next real market surge may not occur until 2026.
At first glance, this sounds a bit contrarian, but his reasoning is quite persuasive. Here’s a brief summary 👇
➤ First, the structural funds for ETFs have not yet fully entered the market.
The ETF hot money you see now is actually just the advance team — the real big funds (such as pensions, sovereign funds, and large institutions) are still waiting for compliance green lights and entry conditions.
The rhythm of these funds will not follow any halving cycle; they buy in for long-term holding and annual rebalancing, absorbing gradually and pushing slowly.
➤ Second, the behavioral patterns of on-chain data have also changed.
In the past month, BTC's on-chain activity, exchange inflows, and spot trading volumes have all been declining, yet the price has not dropped and remains stable.
This is quite unusual, indicating that a large number of holders in the market are locking up their assets and not moving them,
most likely because ETFs and long-term funds have acquired them and do not wish to sell.
This pattern is completely different from a market driven purely by retail investors, with drastic peaks and troughs.
➤ Third, from a macro perspective, the rhythm of the bull market has changed.
The current situation resembles structural inflation in financial assets — U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC are taking turns hitting new highs, while the dollar has not experienced a significant collapse.
Behind this lies the issue of a global asset shortage and the expansion of global central bank balance sheets, which cannot be resolved in a year or two.
In other words, for the next few years, the entire asset pricing logic will lean towards a slow bull market and scarcity.
He said: The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin may have become ineffective, and the next real market surge may not occur until 2026.
At first glance, this sounds a bit contrarian, but his reasoning is quite persuasive. Here’s a brief summary 👇
➤ First, the structural funds for ETFs have not yet fully entered the market.
The ETF hot money you see now is actually just the advance team — the real big funds (such as pensions, sovereign funds, and large institutions) are still waiting for compliance green lights and entry conditions.
The rhythm of these funds will not follow any halving cycle; they buy in for long-term holding and annual rebalancing, absorbing gradually and pushing slowly.
➤ Second, the behavioral patterns of on-chain data have also changed.
In the past month, BTC's on-chain activity, exchange inflows, and spot trading volumes have all been declining, yet the price has not dropped and remains stable.
This is quite unusual, indicating that a large number of holders in the market are locking up their assets and not moving them,
most likely because ETFs and long-term funds have acquired them and do not wish to sell.
This pattern is completely different from a market driven purely by retail investors, with drastic peaks and troughs.
➤ Third, from a macro perspective, the rhythm of the bull market has changed.
The current situation resembles structural inflation in financial assets — U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC are taking turns hitting new highs, while the dollar has not experienced a significant collapse.
Behind this lies the issue of a global asset shortage and the expansion of global central bank balance sheets, which cannot be resolved in a year or two.
In other words, for the next few years, the entire asset pricing logic will lean towards a slow bull market and scarcity.
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#行情预测
1. Big pancake, expected range 114500-117500, expected downward rebound trend;
2. Second pancake, expected range 3580-3680, expected downward rebound;
3. Friday 04:00 Trump visits the Federal Reserve
【Market Analysis】
1. Both big pancake and second pancake have surged and then retreated, both are in the correction process after a daily level upward trend.
2. The second pancake has increased significantly previously, and recently we need to guard against profit-taking causing a brief sharp decline.
3. At 4 AM, Trump visits the Federal Reserve, directly asking Powell to lower interest rates. However, Trump has previously requested interest rate cuts multiple times, and this request was expected; the market did not surge because of it. Instead, due to the inability to rise, the big pancake triggered profit-taking from bulls leading to a decline.
4. From July 27-30, the Chinese side will hold economic and trade talks with the U.S. side in Sweden.
5. There are no important data/events today, and the market is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation daily phase. A fluctuating trend is expected today.
【Strategy】
High short and low long at range edges
If a sharp drop occurs, you can catch the needle 😏😏😏
1. Big pancake, expected range 114500-117500, expected downward rebound trend;
2. Second pancake, expected range 3580-3680, expected downward rebound;
3. Friday 04:00 Trump visits the Federal Reserve
【Market Analysis】
1. Both big pancake and second pancake have surged and then retreated, both are in the correction process after a daily level upward trend.
2. The second pancake has increased significantly previously, and recently we need to guard against profit-taking causing a brief sharp decline.
3. At 4 AM, Trump visits the Federal Reserve, directly asking Powell to lower interest rates. However, Trump has previously requested interest rate cuts multiple times, and this request was expected; the market did not surge because of it. Instead, due to the inability to rise, the big pancake triggered profit-taking from bulls leading to a decline.
4. From July 27-30, the Chinese side will hold economic and trade talks with the U.S. side in Sweden.
5. There are no important data/events today, and the market is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation daily phase. A fluctuating trend is expected today.
【Strategy】
High short and low long at range edges
If a sharp drop occurs, you can catch the needle 😏😏😏
See original
#币圈资讯
📈1）Market Trends：
1、BTC is consolidating, ETH is leading all altcoins in a pullback.
2、US stocks are steadily rising, Circle/Tron/SBET continue to decline, and Sun is ringing the bell at Nasdaq.
ℹ️2）Market Highlights：
1、Cyvers: WOO X is suspected to have been attacked, with losses exceeding 12 million USD.
2、xAI will integrate its Grok dialogue model into the prediction market Kalshi.
3、OSL Group plans to raise approximately HKD 2.355 billion through a placement for strategic acquisitions and stablecoin business, Tether Treasury minted an additional 2 billion USDT on Ethereum early this morning.
4、Base chain $I $FAIR has rebounded from an oversold position, Zora has pulled back, and $GEN has surged (the team includes engineers from Google, Meta, and ByteDance), focusing on the foundational protocol for agentic AI, mainly serving true multi-agent collaboration.
5、On-chain liquidity is still insufficient, although Twinkle (the leading token of the new platform One Shot) has quickly reached 5M, there is still no consensus, it's a PVP situation, and since the boom of the Bonk ecosystem, memes haven't produced anything new.
The market remains unpredictable 🤔, please pay attention to risks‼️
📈1）Market Trends：
1、BTC is consolidating, ETH is leading all altcoins in a pullback.
2、US stocks are steadily rising, Circle/Tron/SBET continue to decline, and Sun is ringing the bell at Nasdaq.
ℹ️2）Market Highlights：
1、Cyvers: WOO X is suspected to have been attacked, with losses exceeding 12 million USD.
2、xAI will integrate its Grok dialogue model into the prediction market Kalshi.
3、OSL Group plans to raise approximately HKD 2.355 billion through a placement for strategic acquisitions and stablecoin business, Tether Treasury minted an additional 2 billion USDT on Ethereum early this morning.
4、Base chain $I $FAIR has rebounded from an oversold position, Zora has pulled back, and $GEN has surged (the team includes engineers from Google, Meta, and ByteDance), focusing on the foundational protocol for agentic AI, mainly serving true multi-agent collaboration.
5、On-chain liquidity is still insufficient, although Twinkle (the leading token of the new platform One Shot) has quickly reached 5M, there is still no consensus, it's a PVP situation, and since the boom of the Bonk ecosystem, memes haven't produced anything new.
The market remains unpredictable 🤔, please pay attention to risks‼️
See original
Today, the cryptocurrency market continues to consolidate at high levels. Bitcoin has seen a pullback after reaching $120,000, currently oscillating around $118,000, with increasing short-term divergence between bulls and bears; Ethereum remains in a narrow range around $3,700, showing a technical retracement after previous increases.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency assets are accelerating their integration into the traditional financial system. SEALSQ Corp, a public key infrastructure developer listed on NASDAQ, has announced the establishment of a cryptocurrency investment fund with a scale of approximately $30 million, focusing on allocating mainstream assets such as BTC, ETH, and HBAR. This fund will serve as a strategic funding tool for the company, operating similarly to investing in bonds or stocks, reflecting the company's long-term recognition of the value of digital assets.
In terms of regulation, The Korea Herald reported that the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) of South Korea recently requested local asset management companies to adjust their ETF investment portfolios, limiting equity exposure to cryptocurrency-related companies such as Coinbase and Strategy. This directive is based on the administrative guidelines issued by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea in 2017, which prohibits regulated financial institutions from directly or indirectly investing in equity related to virtual assets.
This move has sparked backlash in the industry, with some financial institutions criticizing this regulation for creating “unequal competition” with retail investors—who can still access related targets through US stock ETFs. In response, the Financial Supervisory Service stated that even if regulatory policies in the US and South Korea change in the future, institutional investors must still comply with current regulations until new laws are enacted.
#Cryptocurrency #MemeCoin #BTC #ETH #Solana #AI #MemeCoin #DeFi
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency assets are accelerating their integration into the traditional financial system. SEALSQ Corp, a public key infrastructure developer listed on NASDAQ, has announced the establishment of a cryptocurrency investment fund with a scale of approximately $30 million, focusing on allocating mainstream assets such as BTC, ETH, and HBAR. This fund will serve as a strategic funding tool for the company, operating similarly to investing in bonds or stocks, reflecting the company's long-term recognition of the value of digital assets.
In terms of regulation, The Korea Herald reported that the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) of South Korea recently requested local asset management companies to adjust their ETF investment portfolios, limiting equity exposure to cryptocurrency-related companies such as Coinbase and Strategy. This directive is based on the administrative guidelines issued by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea in 2017, which prohibits regulated financial institutions from directly or indirectly investing in equity related to virtual assets.
This move has sparked backlash in the industry, with some financial institutions criticizing this regulation for creating “unequal competition” with retail investors—who can still access related targets through US stock ETFs. In response, the Financial Supervisory Service stated that even if regulatory policies in the US and South Korea change in the future, institutional investors must still comply with current regulations until new laws are enacted.
#Cryptocurrency #MemeCoin #BTC #ETH #Solana #AI #MemeCoin #DeFi
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#行情推演
1️⃣Market Trends
1. BTC is consolidating, altcoins are rising.
2. U.S. stocks have reached new highs, and gold has surged.
2️⃣Market Highlights:
1. The public chain SOL has risen, and a U.S. listed company has increased its holdings by $200 million. The NFT concepts of Pengu, Dood, etc. have risen, possibly influenced by large whales buying NFTs at the bottom. The meme project Pythia has surged, with strong control by major stakeholders.
2. The DeFi projects ENA and SPK have risen. ENA is a yield-bearing stablecoin, and has established a company similar to MicroStrategy for buying coins in the U.S. stock market. SPK is the native lending platform launched by MakerDAO, aggregating yields on on-chain capital.
3. The social concept Zora has surged, and the Base chain app has integrated its content socialization technology.
1️⃣Market Trends
1. BTC is consolidating, altcoins are rising.
2. U.S. stocks have reached new highs, and gold has surged.
2️⃣Market Highlights:
1. The public chain SOL has risen, and a U.S. listed company has increased its holdings by $200 million. The NFT concepts of Pengu, Dood, etc. have risen, possibly influenced by large whales buying NFTs at the bottom. The meme project Pythia has surged, with strong control by major stakeholders.
2. The DeFi projects ENA and SPK have risen. ENA is a yield-bearing stablecoin, and has established a company similar to MicroStrategy for buying coins in the U.S. stock market. SPK is the native lending platform launched by MakerDAO, aggregating yields on on-chain capital.
3. The social concept Zora has surged, and the Base chain app has integrated its content socialization technology.
See original
#山寨币突破
Recently, multiple indicators show that the altcoin season may have quietly begun. The altcoin season index has surpassed 50, reaching a new high since December last year. The open interest in Ethereum perpetual contracts surged from $18 billion to $28 billion within a week, with institutional funds becoming the main driving force behind this round of increase.
The passage of the 'GENIUS Act' provides a clear regulatory framework for the issuance of stablecoins, prompting corporate finance departments to regard ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, and others as a new generation of 'crypto reserve assets'. Furthermore, if a staking-based Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it is expected to further drive institutions to shift their allocations from Bitcoin ETFs to ETH.
Last week, ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding BTC for two consecutive days, significantly boosting the confidence of institutions like BlackRock. The options market also displayed strong bullish signals, with optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter.
Currently, Bitcoin's market share has dropped from 64% to 60%, while ETH's market share has risen to 11.6%. Overall, it appears that a new round of altcoin momentum may have officially started.
Recently, multiple indicators show that the altcoin season may have quietly begun. The altcoin season index has surpassed 50, reaching a new high since December last year. The open interest in Ethereum perpetual contracts surged from $18 billion to $28 billion within a week, with institutional funds becoming the main driving force behind this round of increase.
The passage of the 'GENIUS Act' provides a clear regulatory framework for the issuance of stablecoins, prompting corporate finance departments to regard ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, and others as a new generation of 'crypto reserve assets'. Furthermore, if a staking-based Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it is expected to further drive institutions to shift their allocations from Bitcoin ETFs to ETH.
Last week, ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding BTC for two consecutive days, significantly boosting the confidence of institutions like BlackRock. The options market also displayed strong bullish signals, with optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter.
Currently, Bitcoin's market share has dropped from 64% to 60%, while ETH's market share has risen to 11.6%. Overall, it appears that a new round of altcoin momentum may have officially started.
See original
#加密立法新纪元
#1) Market Trends
BTC pulled back, BTC market share broke and fell sharply.
Altcoins surged, with the market's main focus on the ETH ecosystem.
U.S. stocks rose, increasing risk.
2) Market Highlights:
1. Public chain ETH surged, ETH/BTC continued to rise, and U.S. institutions continued to buy ETH.
2. Stablecoin concepts CFX and ENA surged.
The domestic public chain CFX became the official pilot for the RMB stablecoin, and Chinese concepts CKB, ACH, PHB, etc. followed suit.
Yield-generating stablecoin ENA continued to rise.
3. The launch platform PumpFun will airdrop to active SOL wallets.
#1) Market Trends
BTC pulled back, BTC market share broke and fell sharply.
Altcoins surged, with the market's main focus on the ETH ecosystem.
U.S. stocks rose, increasing risk.
2) Market Highlights:
1. Public chain ETH surged, ETH/BTC continued to rise, and U.S. institutions continued to buy ETH.
2. Stablecoin concepts CFX and ENA surged.
The domestic public chain CFX became the official pilot for the RMB stablecoin, and Chinese concepts CKB, ACH, PHB, etc. followed suit.
Yield-generating stablecoin ENA continued to rise.
3. The launch platform PumpFun will airdrop to active SOL wallets.
See original
Today is the weekend, and liquidity is indeed a bit poor.
1. #BTC , expected range 117500-119000, expected oscillating trend;
2. #eth , expected range 3540-3620, expected oscillating trend biased towards bullish;
3. No important data released today, Saturday.
【Market Analysis】
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum both oscillated down yesterday; the strong rise of Ethereum is expected to pause temporarily over the weekend. With no important data next week, it is expected that Saturday and Sunday will see sideways oscillation.
Ethereum's weekly increase has lagged behind Bitcoin, and now some companies are starting to adopt a strategy of accumulating Ethereum, forming buying power. Moreover, the day before yesterday, Teda Company issued an additional 3 billion in the Ethereum chain, bringing in substantial funds again. Thus, Ethereum is currently experiencing a compensatory rise, showing independent strength.
2. This week, several positive events occurred in the B circle:
① The U.S. House of Representatives passed three bills on cryptocurrency, marking another significant regulatory advancement.
② This week's CPI, PPI, and other inflation assessment data did not exceed expectations. It can be concluded that the previous tariff war will not lead to subsequent inflation rises, removing a major obstacle to interest rate cuts.
③ Trump indicated that he might impose a 10%-15% tariff rate on smaller countries, cooling down the tariff war again;
④ Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and has been forcing Powell to resign by highlighting the cost overruns in the Fed building renovation. All these factors are heating up market expectations for interest rate cuts.
3. Today's expected trend is mainly oscillating, with Ethereum stronger than Bitcoin.
【Strategy】
High short, low long. Remember the old rule: there is no direction that lasts forever; making money is what matters, regardless of being bullish or bearish. 😁
1. #BTC , expected range 117500-119000, expected oscillating trend;
2. #eth , expected range 3540-3620, expected oscillating trend biased towards bullish;
3. No important data released today, Saturday.
【Market Analysis】
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum both oscillated down yesterday; the strong rise of Ethereum is expected to pause temporarily over the weekend. With no important data next week, it is expected that Saturday and Sunday will see sideways oscillation.
Ethereum's weekly increase has lagged behind Bitcoin, and now some companies are starting to adopt a strategy of accumulating Ethereum, forming buying power. Moreover, the day before yesterday, Teda Company issued an additional 3 billion in the Ethereum chain, bringing in substantial funds again. Thus, Ethereum is currently experiencing a compensatory rise, showing independent strength.
2. This week, several positive events occurred in the B circle:
① The U.S. House of Representatives passed three bills on cryptocurrency, marking another significant regulatory advancement.
② This week's CPI, PPI, and other inflation assessment data did not exceed expectations. It can be concluded that the previous tariff war will not lead to subsequent inflation rises, removing a major obstacle to interest rate cuts.
③ Trump indicated that he might impose a 10%-15% tariff rate on smaller countries, cooling down the tariff war again;
④ Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and has been forcing Powell to resign by highlighting the cost overruns in the Fed building renovation. All these factors are heating up market expectations for interest rate cuts.
3. Today's expected trend is mainly oscillating, with Ethereum stronger than Bitcoin.
【Strategy】
High short, low long. Remember the old rule: there is no direction that lasts forever; making money is what matters, regardless of being bullish or bearish. 😁
See original
#比特币行情分析
The current encryption market faces multiple games: rising CPI suppresses interest rate cut expectations, but the process of changing the Federal Reserve chairman enhances market tolerance. The dramatic rejection of the cryptocurrency bill by the U.S. House of Representatives, along with internal conflicts within the Republican Party, has turned "Cryptocurrency Week" into a joke, leading to regulatory uncertainty.
The technical analysis shows a historical gap that needs to be filled between $112,000 and $115,000, compounded by obstacles to the stablecoin bill and heavy selling pressure from whales, putting short-term pressure on the market. The political game and the demand to fill on-chain gaps are the main sources of volatility, and we need to be wary of political black swans.
Operational Advice
For Bitcoin, I personally suggest taking profits and exiting long positions, and temporarily observing the market.
The current encryption market faces multiple games: rising CPI suppresses interest rate cut expectations, but the process of changing the Federal Reserve chairman enhances market tolerance. The dramatic rejection of the cryptocurrency bill by the U.S. House of Representatives, along with internal conflicts within the Republican Party, has turned "Cryptocurrency Week" into a joke, leading to regulatory uncertainty.
The technical analysis shows a historical gap that needs to be filled between $112,000 and $115,000, compounded by obstacles to the stablecoin bill and heavy selling pressure from whales, putting short-term pressure on the market. The political game and the demand to fill on-chain gaps are the main sources of volatility, and we need to be wary of political black swans.
Operational Advice
For Bitcoin, I personally suggest taking profits and exiting long positions, and temporarily observing the market.
See original
#XRPETFApproval
Brothers, XRP's ETF has been approved by the NYSE. How far are the others? 🤔 It's worth considering a little positioning or entering with a 3x leveraged long on dips; I think it's good. 😁
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a prediction in July regarding the approval probability of crypto spot ETFs before the end of 2025, indicating that the SEC may approve multiple altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, and DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche expected to have a 90% approval probability. SUI is expected to have a 60% approval probability, while Tron/TRX and Pengu are expected to have a 50% approval probability.
Brothers, XRP's ETF has been approved by the NYSE. How far are the others? 🤔 It's worth considering a little positioning or entering with a 3x leveraged long on dips; I think it's good. 😁
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a prediction in July regarding the approval probability of crypto spot ETFs before the end of 2025, indicating that the SEC may approve multiple altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, and DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche expected to have a 90% approval probability. SUI is expected to have a 60% approval probability, while Tron/TRX and Pengu are expected to have a 50% approval probability.
See original
#BTC再创新高
Bitcoin has reached a new high, but market liquidity remains low. The current price increase is mainly due to reduced selling pressure rather than increased buying, and on-chain data shows that the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, with an increase in the proportion of long-term holders.
This week, key attention should be paid to U.S. macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, especially if CPI falls short of expectations, which could impact the market in the short term. Overall, in the absence of systemic risks, BTC is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern.
Trading advice: Those holding long positions can continue to hold, while those who have not established positions can gradually accumulate long positions in the 116,500-117,000 range, with strict stop-loss settings.
Bitcoin has reached a new high, but market liquidity remains low. The current price increase is mainly due to reduced selling pressure rather than increased buying, and on-chain data shows that the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, with an increase in the proportion of long-term holders.
This week, key attention should be paid to U.S. macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, especially if CPI falls short of expectations, which could impact the market in the short term. Overall, in the absence of systemic risks, BTC is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern.
Trading advice: Those holding long positions can continue to hold, while those who have not established positions can gradually accumulate long positions in the 116,500-117,000 range, with strict stop-loss settings.
See original
#BTC再创新高
The pancake has reached a new high, but don’t think it will pull back. As long as it doesn’t break the trend line (red line), it can continue to hold. Even if it goes down, there’s still a higher support (multiple support levels are still very strong) 💪. For those trading contracts, I believe we shouldn’t act recklessly 🈳😏
The pancake has reached a new high, but don’t think it will pull back. As long as it doesn’t break the trend line (red line), it can continue to hold. Even if it goes down, there’s still a higher support (multiple support levels are still very strong) 💪. For those trading contracts, I believe we shouldn’t act recklessly 🈳😏
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