I just came across a very interesting perspective from Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan.

He said: The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin may have become ineffective, and the next real market surge may not occur until 2026.

At first glance, this sounds a bit contrarian, but his reasoning is quite persuasive. Here’s a brief summary 👇

➤ First, the structural funds for ETFs have not yet fully entered the market.

The ETF hot money you see now is actually just the advance team — the real big funds (such as pensions, sovereign funds, and large institutions) are still waiting for compliance green lights and entry conditions.

The rhythm of these funds will not follow any halving cycle; they buy in for long-term holding and annual rebalancing, absorbing gradually and pushing slowly.

➤ Second, the behavioral patterns of on-chain data have also changed.

In the past month, BTC's on-chain activity, exchange inflows, and spot trading volumes have all been declining, yet the price has not dropped and remains stable.

This is quite unusual, indicating that a large number of holders in the market are locking up their assets and not moving them,

most likely because ETFs and long-term funds have acquired them and do not wish to sell.

This pattern is completely different from a market driven purely by retail investors, with drastic peaks and troughs.

➤ Third, from a macro perspective, the rhythm of the bull market has changed.

The current situation resembles structural inflation in financial assets — U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC are taking turns hitting new highs, while the dollar has not experienced a significant collapse.

Behind this lies the issue of a global asset shortage and the expansion of global central bank balance sheets, which cannot be resolved in a year or two.

In other words, for the next few years, the entire asset pricing logic will lean towards a slow bull market and scarcity.