Part 2 š§® Statistics This week markets are waiting for the release of key macro statistics: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment, Inflation (Core PCE), PMI and Consumer Confidence. Already released US GDP for Q1 was much worse than expected (0.4% vs. 2.4% forecast), which reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts. Expectations of weak labor market and inflation data may support the crypto market and risk assets, but also increase volatility. The reaction will depend on the actual numbers. š¦ Earnings. This week, markets are awaiting reports from major US companies Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, PayPal, McDonald's, Booking, Spotify, Spotify, Robinhood, Reddit, Airbnb and others. Volatility may increase - the reporting of BigTech, financial sector and energy leaders can set the tone for the whole market and influence investor sentiment, including the crypto market. ā” Crypto Metrics Many metrics are forming an attempt to break the downtrend and some have already done so, but most require confirmation. š” Forecast: * BTC: Price is sideways, just in the zone I highlighted in the last review, which is the supply zone and past active bear participation. In the current zone there can be a deeper correction and work out the distribution according to Wyckoff, in this scenario the price will tend to the zone of 90 or even 85K. Consolidation above 95K will cancel this scenario. There may be false breakouts, which complicates trading in this zone. It is a bad place to trade. Key support is 90K. * ETH: The price broke through the zone of 1.7-1.75K but there was no acceleration. The main liquidity is in bitcoin and for a full-fledged reversal we need to see the fall of its dominance, so far it is not. The key support is 1.53K.
Kirill Gaitan l PROFIT_PILOT
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A lot of text, average hamsters pass by as it is not possible for them to cope with so much. As always, at the beginning of the week we summarize and analyze the crypto market. Part 1 š Last week I expected bitcoin to continue local growth with targets 90-92K and further growth was questionable due to strong supply. The scenario was realized and the targets were reached. On ether the important zone of 1.75K, breakdown of which will give the way up, the breakdown occurred and the price became sideways over the past resistance, which has now turned into a support zone. Liquidation Map: We need to understand important liquidation zones where there could be acceleration in price movement. BTC bottom 90.6K and top 97.5K strong Long skew, which I don't like. ETH bottom 1.5K and top 1.9K š¼ ETF Market: Funds showed strong inflows into assets, especially bitcoin. Total for the period April 21-25, 2025: * Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$3 billion USD * Ethereum Spot ETF: +157 million USD āļø Onchain Metrics: The bitcoin and ether network saw a strong withdrawal of bitcoin from CEX exchanges, which could indicate a position set. The leverage ratio reached a 2-year high, indicating increased risk-taking by market participants, especially for etherium. Open interest in derivatives is showing a rebound, but not that much. š Macroeconomics: The current week is very important for the markets as it could significantly affect the probabilities of rate cuts and other measures by the Fed's financial regulator. The tariff wars between China and the US that are ongoing are making capital nervous and buying up defensive assets. Most likely this trend will continue and risk assets will remain under pressure in the coming weeks. $BTC $ETH
A lot of text, average hamsters pass by as it is not possible for them to cope with so much. As always, at the beginning of the week we summarize and analyze the crypto market. Part 1 š Last week I expected bitcoin to continue local growth with targets 90-92K and further growth was questionable due to strong supply. The scenario was realized and the targets were reached. On ether the important zone of 1.75K, breakdown of which will give the way up, the breakdown occurred and the price became sideways over the past resistance, which has now turned into a support zone. Liquidation Map: We need to understand important liquidation zones where there could be acceleration in price movement. BTC bottom 90.6K and top 97.5K strong Long skew, which I don't like. ETH bottom 1.5K and top 1.9K š¼ ETF Market: Funds showed strong inflows into assets, especially bitcoin. Total for the period April 21-25, 2025: * Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$3 billion USD * Ethereum Spot ETF: +157 million USD āļø Onchain Metrics: The bitcoin and ether network saw a strong withdrawal of bitcoin from CEX exchanges, which could indicate a position set. The leverage ratio reached a 2-year high, indicating increased risk-taking by market participants, especially for etherium. Open interest in derivatives is showing a rebound, but not that much. š Macroeconomics: The current week is very important for the markets as it could significantly affect the probabilities of rate cuts and other measures by the Fed's financial regulator. The tariff wars between China and the US that are ongoing are making capital nervous and buying up defensive assets. Most likely this trend will continue and risk assets will remain under pressure in the coming weeks. $BTC $ETH
š” On the back of the news that CME Group officially announced the launch of XRP futures trading, the early front of this event has started and the price has started to rise.Ā
š The price returned above the important 2.15 zone, which could potentially lead to the development of a local HYP pattern with targets of 2.8-2.9$.
š° Buying up by 70$ from last week as part of the DCA portfolio .Ā
šļø Recall that I allocate $10 daily for cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available.
š If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction š
Total crypto market capitalization increased from $2.5 trillion to $2.9 trillion š. Bitcoin's dominance is declining, but the trend is holding at 65-70% š ; a breakout of the uptrend is needed for a reversal. Efirium is testing downtrend, in sideways āļø; need 8% breakout with consolidation for reversal. USDT dominance broke uptrend, down to 5% š¢, which may support cryptoasset price gains; USDT capitalization is $145 billion šµ,Ā total altcoin capitalization rises to $900 billion. Altcoins (without top 10) formed W-pattern, broke downtrend, but traded sideways šŖ; need consolidation above $250 bln for growth. Dollar Index is recovering, expected sideways around 100 in next 1-2 months š¹
Reading this review requires a background above the standard hamster š§ - most will find it complicated due to the terms and volume of text š. Many lack probabilistic thinking š² and just want to be shown the direction of the market āļøš.
As always, we summarize and analyze the crypto market at the beginning of the week.
š Last week the growth scenario on BTC was realized: after the breakdown of 83K I expected the movement to 90-92K when overcoming 85K. On ETH the resistance zone of 1.7-1.75K remained unbroken, there was no entry point for longing.
Liquidation map: BTC: key zones are 85K (bottom), 89.5K (top). ETH: 1.5K (bottom), 1.78K (top). Price movement acceleration is possible in these zones.
š¼ ETF market: Institutionals continue to reduce positions. Net inflows: - Bitcoin: +10.7 million USD - Ethereum: -32.3 million USD Bitcoin remains the main benchmark and liquidity center.
āļø Onchain metrics: No significant changes, reserves on CEX at lows.
š Macroeconomics: Fed chief noted the strength of the economy, market expects first rate cut with 70% probability in June, only 10% in May. US-China tariff wars continue, supporting demand for defensive assets and pressuring risk assets. The trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks.
š§® Statistics: April 23 - business activity indexes: slowdown is positive for crypto, but the effect is short-term. April 24 - unemployment claims: a deteriorating labor market will also support risk assets.
š” Forecast:
BTC: Local uptrend, longing priority. Targets are 90-92K, 95K is questionable due to strong supply in this zone. Supports are 85-83K.
ETH: Resistance 1.7-1.75K, if broken - growth to 1.9-2K. Supports - 1.5-1.4K. A trigger is needed for growth, for example, approval of a staking-ETF.
In general, the market remains bullish, but further growth is limited and requires new drivers. $BTC $ETH
Starknet ($STRK ) is now deep in the reset zone - the coin is down 95% from its 2024 highs, which is typical for altcoins with potential š. The trend remains bearish and fully correlated with Ethereum, as Starknet is the L2 for ETH š¦¾. The price may still decline down to $0.10, but I expect a quick consolidation and break of the downtrend š.
Since April, a significant increase in open interest has been recorded - this indicates an influx of new contracts and increased attention to the coin š. I am not talking about short-term deals, but about a strategic approach: it is important to understand the scenario in advance and be ready to move.
When there are signs of reversal - impulse growth, formation of V- or W-pattern, breakdown of trend line and exit from consolidation - it is important to get into this movement š. Volumes on the coin are very high, so the growth may be sharp and most will not have time to enter. Key zones: $0.20, $0.30 (100 MA), $0.50. Return to $0.30 is the first target on a reversal š”.
Important from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech: š markets are likely to remain volatile. š he believes there will be a loosening of banking regulations on cryptocurrencies. š Cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more popular and a legal framework for stable coins is a good idea. Didn't say anything new, but didn't add any negativity and thanks for that.
šāāļø Hi guys! As always, at the beginning of the week we summarize and analyze the crypto market. š Last week we talked about a possible test of local lows on bitcoin, and the important 83K zone, the breakdown of which will give a move for further growth. At the end of the week bitcoin broke the 83K zone and is now trading at the resistance of 85K. I also said that ether is unlikely to decline further due to the reduction of short positions. And the important zone is 1.7K, for a medium-term reversal. As a result, ether got support at local lows and is now trading sideways. Liquidation map: Need to understand important liquidation zones where there could be acceleration in price movement. BTC down 77K and up 89.5K ETH down 1.5K and up 1.75K š¼ ETF Market: Institutional market participants continued to reduce positions in both assets. Bottom line: * Bitcoin ETF: -706.9M USD * Ethereum ETF: -82.5M USD āļø Onchain Metrics: There were no significant changes in metrics, all within average values. š Macroeconomics: We should expect a resolution to the China-US tariff war, which is likely to continue this week and another throw-in will weigh on prices. Fed intervention - an unscheduled rate cut is in question, but the Feds have said they will intervene if necessary. It should be kept in mind that the regulator has other leverage besides rate cuts. Powell is expected to speak on Wednesday, there may be a change in rhetoric. š§® Statistics April 16 - Retail Sales. April 17 - Unemployment benefits. š” Forecast: * BTC: The 85K zone is currently local resistance, if broken, a move to the 90-92K zone is likely, where there is an upper boundary of consolidation and significant supply is located. Supports 83-80-75K. The instrument is trading in a local uptrend, the priority of longing remains. * ETH: The zone of 1.7-1.75K is a resistance at the breakdown of which a rebound to the zone of 1.9-2K is probable. Supports 1.5-1.4K. If the breakdown is confirmed, the priority is Long.
š” This cryptocurrency has weathered the market volatility the best, AND has not lost value.
āļø TRX accumulation reduces volatility and overall portfolio drawdowns Tron is the most popular blockchain for USDT transfers. š The instrument is now trading near the upper boundary of the 0.25 sidewall, upon breaking which we can expect a market move of 20% consolidation width. š° Buying up $70 over the past week as part of the DCA portfolio . šļø Recall that I allocate $10 daily to cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available. š If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction š
šØ A historic event for the crypto industry US President Donald Trump signed a resolution repealing an IRS rule that required DeFi platforms to report transactions š The H J Res 25 Act passed by Congress protects innovation and privacy by blocking requirements that threatened the development of decentralized finance š”ļø This is the first crypto law in U.S. history š It would seem that DeFi tokens should react violently, but in the current situation with market uncertainty there is no reaction yet š Top assets should be added to the watch list š With the slightest signs of the tariff war ending and the start of the US JCPOA easing, we may see a new growth of the DeFi sector š
š Which cryptocurrency has weathered market volatility the best? And didn't lose value? That's right TRX - @TRON DAO . š Accumulating TRX reduces volatility and overall drawdowns across your portfolio. ā” Grayscale recently added $TRX to its list of prioritized assets. Tron is the most popular blockchain for USDT transfers. š In addition, I don't rule out spot ETFs for this asset in the near future, which will increase its availability for institutional players. š Technically, the instrument continues to be in accumulation with the boundaries of 0.2-0.25$, the breakdown of which will determine the local trend.
š” Bitcoin has updated the local low. š The instrument remains under pressure like all risk assets. There is extreme fear in the market. š° I'm buying up by 70$ from last week as part of DCA portfolio . šļø Recall that I allocate $10 daily to investing in cryptocurrency and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available. š If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction š
Ripple announced the purchase of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, one of the largest deals in the crypto industry. But more important than the amount is its strategic meaning: the deal brings together cryptocurrencies and traditional finance, giving them mutual access. Hidden Road is a prime broker trusted by hedge funds, market makers and quant traders. Ripple, their longtime client, knows their capabilities: $3$3 trillion in annual clearing for 300+ financial institutions. Now this infrastructure will amplify Ripple's technology. XRP and XRP Ledger will provide instant, scalable, and cheap transactions. Instead of the 24-hour wait time in fiat systems, Hidden Road will use XRPL to clear transactions. The RLUSD stablecoin will become collateral in transactions between crypto and traditional assets, strengthening integration. With Ripple's backing, Hidden Road will strengthen its position as the largest non-bank prime broker. This partnership is an evolutionary step that blurs the boundaries between centralized and decentralized finance. Ripple and Hidden Road are creating a future where cryptocurrencies become part of the global economy by providing institutions with efficient tools. Recall that $XRP is currently trading under the important support of $2. A loss of this level could open the way to $1.2. To cancel this scenario, we need to see the price return above $2.15.
šāāļø Hey, guys! This week's results and analysis of the crypto market. š Last week I warned about volatility and risks. Was looking at 85K breakout zones in BTC - took the move up to 88K. Trumponomics caused a hurricane: traditional assets fell Thursday-Friday, crypto fell over the weekend, reaching 75K (BTC) and 1.4K (ETH). The risks of falling in a narrow market warned in advance. Liquidation map: Important areas: BTC: bottom 73.5K, top 80K ETH: 1.4K at the bottom, 1.55K at the top š¼ ETF Market: Netflow for March 31-April 4, 2025: BTC: -164.40 million ETH: -49.80 million āļø Onchain Metrics: Inflows of BTC and ETH on CEX are pressuring prices. Open interest falls - unloading shorts, fixing positions, market weakness, rebound possible. š Macroeconomics: Early US tariff changes and Fed rate cut before the meeting may trigger a V-turn in the market. Key macro statistics: April 10: Core CPI Unemployment benefits š” Forecast: BTC: Possible low in 70-72K (past ATH zone). Medium-term reversal above 83K. Short term trading: V/W patterns, Volume analysis. ETH: Declining OI calls into question the decline, consolidation in 1.4-1.6K is likely. Medium-term reversal above 1.7K. Short-term trading: V/W patterns. $BTC $ETH
š” Bitcoin is still trading in a downtrend. š Bitcoin continues to be a priority for investors. Bitcoin's dominance continues to grow. Locally, the instrument is showing weakness. š° Buying up $70 for last week as part of the DCA portfolio . šļø Recall that I allocate $10 daily to cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available. š If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction š $BTC #DCA
šāāļø Hey guys! As always, at the beginning of the week we summarize and analyze the crypto market. šThe crypto market corrected last week after negative news: new car duties from the US President and weak macro statistics on inflation. Bitcoin reached $80,850 but lost upward momentum, falling to $80,000 (key support). Resistance at $85,000, where stop liquidity has accumulated, could trigger upward momentum if broken. The ratio of longs to shorts is 5:1, indicating expectations of a decline, but the market could go against the crowd. Etherium (ETH) is near the lower boundary of the sidewall: support at $1,750, resistance at $1,900. A breakdown of these levels could trigger momentum. The ratio of longs to shorts is 1:2, most are waiting for a decline. Medium-term growth is possible with a consolidation above $2,100. ETF market: * Inflows into Bitcoin ETF: $197M. * Outflow from Ethereum ETF: $9M. Investors favor bitcoin as a more reliable asset. Stablecoins: 1.6 billion stablecoins (USDT+USDC) have been printed, which could fuel the market. āļø Onchain Metrics: Small BTC inflows to exchanges, open interest declined, circulation at historic lows - market in consolidation phase. š Macroeconomics: Trump's new duties go into effect this week, additional tariffs from Mexico possible. Key data: business activity (Tuesday), job openings, Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate (Friday), and the Fed chief's speech. Markets in uncertainty, high risks. š” Forecast: * BTC: In sideways, resistance $85,000 (buying on breakdown), support $80,000 (local) and $75,000 (medium-term). * ETH: In sideways, resistance $1,900 (local breakout), $2,100 (medium-term long), support $1,660. - Recommendation: Wait for a sideways exit with confirmation of volumes and positive consensus. Do not hurry to enter unproven movements. $BTC $ETH
š GDP data came out better than expected, but the market is ignoring it for now. Amid yesterday's new tariff sanctions on cars made outside the US, investors are waiting for Trump's speech today. When politics intervenes, technical analysis means little. But consider what can be gleaned from the charts of the crypto that will follow the indices. ā”If positive, the bitcoin will go to 90K. ā”Negative scenario the price could go straight down to the 80K area. š¤I think they can do something in between, first throw the price into the 90K area and then back into the range of 85K, the target is for example 80-82K where all shoulders will be liquidated again. Efirium in this scenario will go to the neighborhood of 1.8-1.7 and most likely take off LOW. š In trading I have reduced the risk and covered the long on bitcoin, which I opened at 81K, in the market I left, which I opened at the breakdown of 85K. Also if there will be an entry point I will open a hedging short on bitcoin. On ether also remains an open long with an entry point of 2.05K. $BTC
š Ethereum volume on exchanges fell to its lowest since 2015: 8.97 million ETH š The popularity of DeFi and steaking has led to a significant drop in Ethereum supply on exchanges. According to Santiment, ETH volume on exchanges has dropped to 8.97 million, the lowest since November 2015. Over the past 7 weeks, available supply has decreased by 16.4%. The decline in volume on exchanges could signal an increase in holders' confidence in Ethereum's long-term prospects, potentially strengthening the asset's position in the market. š” Less volume of ETH on exchanges reduces selling pressure, which could support price appreciation. The Santiment chart confirms a steady supply downtrend from 2019, reflecting a shift in investor behavior in favor of holding assets off exchanges. $ETH @Ethereum