🙋‍♂️ Hey guys!

Reading this review requires a background above the standard hamster 🧠 - most will find it complicated due to the terms and volume of text 📚. Many lack probabilistic thinking 🎲 and just want to be shown the direction of the market ☝️👇.

As always, we summarize and analyze the crypto market at the beginning of the week.

🕒 Last week the growth scenario on BTC was realized: after the breakdown of 83K I expected the movement to 90-92K when overcoming 85K. On ETH the resistance zone of 1.7-1.75K remained unbroken, there was no entry point for longing.

Liquidation map:

BTC: key zones are 85K (bottom), 89.5K (top).

ETH: 1.5K (bottom), 1.78K (top).

Price movement acceleration is possible in these zones.

💼 ETF market:

Institutionals continue to reduce positions.

Net inflows:

- Bitcoin: +10.7 million USD

- Ethereum: -32.3 million USD

Bitcoin remains the main benchmark and liquidity center.

⛓️ Onchain metrics:

No significant changes, reserves on CEX at lows.

🌐 Macroeconomics:

Fed chief noted the strength of the economy, market expects first rate cut with 70% probability in June, only 10% in May.

US-China tariff wars continue, supporting demand for defensive assets and pressuring risk assets. The trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks.

🧮 Statistics:

April 23 - business activity indexes: slowdown is positive for crypto, but the effect is short-term.

April 24 - unemployment claims: a deteriorating labor market will also support risk assets.

💡 Forecast:

BTC:

Local uptrend, longing priority. Targets are 90-92K, 95K is questionable due to strong supply in this zone. Supports are 85-83K.

ETH:

Resistance 1.7-1.75K, if broken - growth to 1.9-2K. Supports - 1.5-1.4K. A trigger is needed for growth, for example, approval of a staking-ETF.

In general, the market remains bullish, but further growth is limited and requires new drivers. $BTC $ETH