CryptoX探险家

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#Metaplanet增持比特币

#Metaplanet增持比特币 Metaplanet continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, aiming to reach 10,000 coins by 2025. Currently, it holds 4,525 coins with an annualized return rate of 108.3%. The company finances through issuing zero-coupon bonds, stock splits, and put options, with an average cost of $85,000 per coin, accumulating over $380 million in investments. Its stock price has risen over 78% this year, included in the MSCI Japan Index, emulating MicroStrategy's strategy to strengthen cryptocurrency asset allocation and promoting expectations for institutional entry.

#鲍威尔发言

Powell avenged us by flipping Trump's table, but it also affected our BTC and ETH accounts!
Powell's statement early this morning struck hard at Trump's backbone, taking the pot from behind and smashing it onto Trump's head. He made it clear: don't expect the Federal Reserve to save the market because Trump changes every day!
1. Powell's statement is the most obvious hawkish statement in recent months, no longer hiding behind vague expressions; the Nasdaq index plummeted 3% at closing, and tech giants averaged a 5% drop; ETH dropped from 1612 to 1530, and BTC dropped from 85500 to 83250.
2. Clearly, he has had enough of the damn Trump, working diligently to maintain the Federal Reserve's objective and independent image, yet still occasionally being insulted by Trump. Now, with the confrontation and breakup, he feels relieved.
3. Old Powell is our good brother, avenging us and openly criticizing the image-conscious Trump in a live broadcast, and at the end of his speech, he shouted for the crypto community, causing a V-shaped reversal in the market: cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; banking regulations will see "some relaxation."
4. But to be honest, Brother Powell, this action will still need the crypto community to clean up after you; you've had too much to drink! Just as the negative impact of tariffs has just stagnated, you're pulling this stunt! It's better to be a bit more rational as an adult.
#鲍威尔发言 #Bitcoin and US tariff policy #Crypto market consolidation $BTC $ETH $SOL

#Vaulta

Vaulta is an innovative financial ecosystem based on blockchain, aiming to provide Web3 banking solutions. It is a rebranding of the EOS network, with a transition planned for completion in May 2025. Vaulta's goal is to become a leader in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and digital banking sectors, offering services including wealth management, consumer payments, securities investment, and insurance.

#比特币与美国关税政策

Trading Strategy: BTC Offensive and Defensive Framework Under Tariff Policy Changes

1. Event-Driven Trading

• Long Signal:

◦ Sudden tariff increase by the U.S. → U.S. stocks crash + Dollar index spikes and then retreats → BTC/USD breaks key resistance levels (e.g., upper Bollinger Band on weekly chart).

◦ Position Management: Use options combinations, buy call options + sell puts with low strike prices (to reduce premium costs).

• Short Signal:

◦ Tariff exemptions + Dollar index falls below 90 → Funds withdraw from safe-haven assets → BTC falls below the 30-day moving average and RSI > 70 (overbought correction).

2. Cross-Market Hedge Combination

• Classic Hedge: Long BTC futures + Short Dollar index futures (if judging that tariff conflicts are bearish for the dollar).

• Risk Warning: In early March 2020, during the initial pandemic phase, the dollar and BTC both fell simultaneously (liquidity crisis), need to be cautious of correlation reversal under extreme market conditions.

3. On-Chain Data Monitoring Checklist

• Whale Movements: Monitor U.S. institutional addresses (e.g., Coinbase custody wallets) for BTC inflows/outflows after the announcement of tariff policies.

• Stablecoin Flow: Growth in USDT/USDC market capitalization indicates funds entering the market, potentially offsetting selling pressure caused by tariffs.

#币安安全见解 #币安安全见解 Binance, as a leading global cryptocurrency trading platform, is one of the benchmarks in the industry for its investment and mechanisms in security. The platform employs multi-factor authentication (such as 2FA), cold and hot wallet separation for storage, real-time monitoring systems, and AI-driven risk control models to prevent account theft and fund leakage. Furthermore, Binance has established the 'SAFU Fund' (Secure Asset Fund for Users) to provide additional protection for user assets. However, no matter how strong the system is, it cannot replace users' own awareness of security. Maintaining complex passwords, avoiding random clicks on phishing links, and regularly updating security settings are still the most basic self-protection measures when using platforms like Binance. Overall, Binance's efforts in user fund security and platform stability are commendable, but the safety of the cryptocurrency world still requires joint maintenance by both the platform and users.

#保护你的资产

Psychological Coping Strategies for Extreme Market Conditions

1. Black Swan Events (e.g., exchange crashes, sudden regulatory actions)

• Contingency Plan:

◦ Diversify assets into cold wallets in advance, with contract positions ≤ 20% of the account.

◦ When the event is triggered, prioritize closing positions rather than seeking the 'truth' to avoid liquidity crises.

2. Spike Markets (sudden surges/drops)

• Psychological Preparation:

◦ Accept that spikes are a characteristic of the cryptocurrency market; they are unpredictable but defensible.

◦ Use limit stop-loss orders instead of market orders to reduce slippage losses.

◦ Avoid high leverage (e.g., within 5x) near important support/resistance levels.

3. Continuous Losing Periods (strategy failure)

• Recovery Steps:

1. Reduce positions to a normal level of 25% to lessen psychological burden.

2. Backtest data from the past 3 years to confirm whether the market cycle has changed.

3. If the maximum drawdown exceeds historical extremes, pause live trading for 1 week.

#保持SAFU

Four Core Methods for Cultivating Top Trading Psychology

1. Mechanical Trading System

• Rules: Quantify entry, stop loss, take profit, and position sizes to eliminate subjective judgment.

• Example:

◦ Only go long when RSI < 30 + 4-hour closing price is above EMA20.

◦ Stop loss = 1% below the previous low, take profit = 3 times the stop loss distance, position size = account 2% / stop loss distance.

2. Daily Psychological Review

• Process:

1. Record the emotional state of each trade (anxiety/greed/confidence).

2. Analyze whether the rules were followed, marking emotional trading.

3. Implement “punishment” for rule violations (e.g., ban opening new positions for 3 days).

• Tools: Use Excel or TradingView note feature to create a log.

3. Stress Simulation Training

• Method:

◦ Create extreme market conditions (e.g., ±20% volatility) in a demo account to observe personal reactions.

◦ Practice calmly executing stop losses during a crash, rather than closing the screen to avoid.

• Goal: Train the brain to adapt to stress, turning discipline into muscle memory.

4. Physiological Regulation Techniques

• Scientific Basis: Elevated cortisol (stress hormone) leads to irrational decision-making.

• Practical Tips:

◦ Take 5 deep breaths before placing an order (to lower heart rate).

◦ Stay away from the market screen during positions, set alerts to replace monitoring.

◦ Regular exercise (e.g., 30 minutes of cardio daily) to reduce trading anxiety.

#交易心理学

I. Six Psychological Traps in Cryptocurrency Trading

1. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

• Manifestation: Chasing prices due to surging markets, frequent position changes, leveraging without a plan.

• Case: BTC suddenly surges by 10%, traders fear missing out on a “bull market,” and heavily invest without stop-loss, resulting in a liquidation after a spike.

• Response:

◦ Create a checklist of trigger conditions (e.g., enter when breaking previous highs + volume increases by 3 times).

◦ Force yourself to wait at least 15 minutes before placing an order to avoid impulsiveness.

2. Revenge Trading

• Manifestation: Doubling down on bets after consecutive losses, holding against the trend, trying to quickly recover losses.

• Data: 80% of liquidations stem from holding positions, with average losses increasing to over 3 times the initial stop-loss.

• Response:

◦ When daily losses reach 2% of the account, force a 24-hour trading halt.

◦ Set a “cooling-off period” rule: halve the position size for the next trade after a loss.

3. Overconfidence (Winner's Curse)

• Manifestation: Ignoring risks after short-term profits, magnifying leverage, deviating from original strategies.

• Experimental Verification: Traders with three consecutive profitable trades have an average risk exposure increase of 47% in their next trade.

• Response:

◦ After profits exceed 10% of the account, withdraw a portion of profits to lock in gains.

◦ Regularly backtest strategies to avoid attribution bias (attributing luck to skill).

4. Anchoring Effect

• Manifestation: Fixation on entry price or historical highs, refusing to stop-loss or taking profits too early.

• Example: After buying ETH at 3,000, it drops to 2,500; due to anchoring to the cost price, the trader refuses to stop-loss and ultimately drops to $2,000 and liquidates.

• Solution:

◦ Use trailing stop-loss instead of fixed stop-loss, adjusting according to market dynamics.

◦ Remove display of holding costs, focusing only on price and strategy signals.

5. Loss Aversion (Fear of Cutting Losses)

• Manifestation: The fear of losses far outweighs the desire for profits, leading to small gains and large losses.

• Data: Most traders close positions with an average profit of 1.5% but tolerate losses exceeding 7%.

• Balancing Method:

◦ Enforce risk-reward ratio (e.g., 3:1), profit targets must be three times the stop-loss space.

◦ Treat stop-loss as “transaction costs,” accepting reasonable losses as part of the system.

6. Confirmation Bias (Selective Belief)

• Manifestation: Only focusing on news that supports one’s position, ignoring contrary signals.

#风险回报比

III. Special Strategies for Highly Volatile Markets

1. Phased Take Profit (Dynamic Risk-Reward Ratio)

• Partial Position Closing:

◦ 50% of the position takes profit at a 2:1 ratio, and the remaining position trails the stop loss to 3:1 or higher.

◦ Example: After opening a long position in ETH, enter at 2,000, stop loss at 1,900 (risk 100), first target 2,200 (2:1) to close half of the position, move the stop loss of the remaining position to $2,100 to seek higher returns.

2. Event-Driven Trading

• Positive/Negative Events (such as ETF approval, exchange listings):

◦ Anticipated volatility surges, allowing stop loss (risk) to be compressed to 1%, and take profit to be expanded to 5-10%, achieving a return ratio of over 5:1.

◦ Key: Must enter 30 minutes before the event announcement to avoid liquidity depletion causing slippage.

3. Balance Between Leverage and Return Ratio

• Leverage Formula:

◦ Maximum Leverage = Account Risk Tolerance / (Stop Loss Margin × Contract Value)

◦ Example: If the account can tolerate a 2% risk (200), and the BTC stop loss margin is 2% (1,200), then the maximum leverage = 200 / (1,200×1) ≈ 0.16 times (must be rounded down in practice).

◦ Conclusion: High return ratios require lower leverage to avoid being triggered by market fluctuations due to too close stop losses.

#止损策略
1. The Core Logic of Stop Loss

1. Clearly Define Risk Tolerance: The maximum loss per trade is recommended to be ≤1%-3% of total capital (for example, if the account has $10,000, the single loss should not exceed $100-$300).

2. Based on Market Volatility: Set stop loss based on the average volatility range of the underlying asset (such as the ATR indicator) to avoid being triggered by short-term noise.

3. Combine with Position Management: The higher the leverage, the stricter the stop loss point should be. For example, at 20x leverage, a 5% price fluctuation can lead to total loss of principal.

$BTC Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE is here again, step by step guide on how to achieve a monthly passive income of over 10,000+
The new issue of Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE is expected to take place this week
In light of this expectation, I have specially organized a comprehensive guide on the BNB lending process based on the Lista platform. As an emerging lending protocol in the BNB Chain ecosystem, Lista provides users with a new option for participating in token launches. Here are the detailed operation instructions:
【Complete Operation Process】
1. Asset Preparation: Ensure you hold sufficient BTCB as collateral
2. Collateral Lending: Stake BTCB through Lista Lending to borrow WBNB
3. Token Conversion: Exchange WBNB 1:1 for BNB on the DEX interface
4. Participate in Token Launch: Use the converted $BNB (suggest starting from 3 coins) to participate in the TGE event
5. Repayment Preparation: Convert BNB back to WBNB (reserve additional interest part)
6. Complete Repayment: Repay the WBNB loan and retrieve the collateralized BTCB
【Platform Value Analysis】
The launch of Lista Lending marks the diversified development of the #bnb Chain lending ecosystem. Although the current version still has room for improvement in user experience and system stability, its innovative collateral lending model injects new vitality into the market. With healthy competition among various platforms, it is expected to accelerate product iteration, ultimately benefiting a wide range of users.
Below is the operation flowchart
#ListaLending Innovating BNBChain Lending

#分散资产 Diversification is the core strategy for building a robust investment portfolio. By spreading funds across different types of assets (such as stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other alternative assets), you can reduce overall risk, lessen the impact of volatility from a single asset, and enhance the stability of long-term returns. Mastering how to select quality assets, optimize allocation ratios, and adjust investments in a timely manner is key to achieving steady growth.

#加密市场回调 My friend, everything has fallen out

This wave isn't about playing the victim; it's really terrible. A few years ago, even though we were losing money inside the wall, outside the wall it was booming, and we managed to get by. Now it's a joint effort of losses both inside and outside the wall, losing money 24 hours a day, it's a real disaster. They say not to put all your eggs in one basket, but in the end, two trucks carrying eggs collided, and all my friend's eggs ended up in a ditch.

Alright, alright, it's really hard to make a living from speculation. After the market closed, I went downstairs to pick up bottles to supplement my household expenses, I swear it's tough.

Dude, everything has dropped out

This wave isn't about selling misery; it's genuinely miserable. A few years ago, even though there were losses inside the wall, things were chaotic and rising outside the wall, so life was still somewhat bearable. Now it's a joint effort of losses both inside and outside the wall, losing money 24 hours a day, and it's really tough. They say you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, but in the end, two trucks carrying eggs crashed into each other, and all my eggs ended up in the ditch.

Honestly, honestly, speculating is really hard to digest this year. If it continues like this, I might just go downstairs to pick up bottles to support the family.

Gold: Below $5,000 is an absolute bottom

Gold prices continue to set historic highs.
For gold prices, we believe there is no absolute upper limit; if there were, it would be around $100,000 per ounce.

There are two fundamental judgments:
First, the price of physical gold at $5,000 per ounce is an absolute bottom. It is currently around $3,100.
Second, whether soon or late, physical gold will become difficult to obtain.

These two fundamental judgments stem from three ongoing facts:
First, the international landscape is undergoing a qualitative change.
Second, the emergence of artificial intelligence means that humans will continue to withdraw en masse from productive and service jobs.
Third, gold is the only material in human history that transcends time and space as a value recognition substance; the so-called 'gold and silver are naturally currency,' and for a significant period, cannot be artificially synthesized (gold elements are produced by neutron star collisions or supernova explosions).

Research suggests that there may be 600 trillion tons of gold on Earth, but it is mostly concentrated in the core. The total extractable amount of gold is about 200,000 tons, with an annual extraction rate of approximately 3,000 tons.

The first issue leads to a loss of credit, as many national governments have a strong incentive to buy gold and push up gold prices.
The second issue results in an explosive increase in demand for a sense of security among the majority of people, as they do not know why they exist.
The third issue leaves gold as the only asset to satisfy the above two demands.

You currently see gold as a commodity or investment target, but in the future, gold will not appear in the world of the vast majority of people.
The last chance for ordinary people

This article presents a clear viewpoint: all investable assets should be used to purchase physical gold; buy as much as possible. Even if you have a little spare money, it should be converted into physical gold. Published on April 24, 2024.

Will gold rise no matter what?
This article presents a clear viewpoint: gold is going to rise.

Below $5,544,735,061,680,000 is an absolute bottom.

#加密市场回调
Today there is another matter, Fitch downgraded China's sovereign credit rating from A+ to A, with a stable outlook. In response, the Chinese side's statement was biased and not recognized. I checked the logic behind the downgrade; Fitch stated that China's fiscal capacity is weakening, public debt is rising rapidly, domestic demand is sluggish, tariffs are increasing, and deflationary pressures are intensifying. Fitch believes that China needs to stimulate consumption next, but fiscal revenue cannot support this, so continued borrowing is necessary, and the deficit rate will rise year by year, roughly like this.

Some netizens feel that the downgrade of China's sovereign credit rating by American institutions is a form of political suppression; however, this may not be the case. In August 2023, Fitch also downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+, citing the deterioration of the U.S. government's finances and increasing debt. These rating agencies still maintain a strong degree of independence in their business positions and are not merely crude political tools.

So what are the negative impacts of the downgrade? First, it will lead to an increase in financing rates for Chinese sovereign bonds, raising the overseas financing costs for both the government and enterprises. Some institutions estimate that this Fitch downgrade will lead to an increase in financing costs for Chinese dollar bonds by $6-8 billion next year.

Secondly, the downgrade will lead to passive rebalancing by some international investment institutions, similar to the principle of adjustments in index constituent stocks. Furthermore, the downgrade will affect the capital market's confidence in Chinese assets, especially against the backdrop of the increasingly tense international situation. In summary, this rating event should not be overlooked, especially given Fitch's demonstrative role, which may lead several other well-known rating agencies to follow suit in downgrading their ratings. In fact, China has also been vigorously cultivating local rating agencies in recent years, such as Dagong Global Credit Rating, United Ratings, and China Chengxin International Credit Rating, but their influence on the international stage is still not large enough, lacking a voice.

View my earnings and investment portfolio details. Follow me to learn investment techniques.

Although the market is closed today, it is very lively, and many things have happened. Let me tell you one by one.

First, China has decided to launch tariff retaliation against the U.S., imposing a 34% tariff on all goods originating from the U.S., while also listing a batch of American companies on an export control list. Not only is the attitude very tough, but the response is also quick. Just a day after the U.S. announced its measures, China's countermeasures were already out, indicating that relevant plans had been in place for a long time, just waiting for the U.S. to take action to strike back immediately. With both sides imposing a 34% tariff, foreign trade basically becomes impossible. With hundreds of billions of dollars in business, one side plans to no longer import, and the other side plans to no longer export; they go their separate ways, and that’s that.

The reason why the U.S. is so arrogant is that it is the world's largest trade deficit country, and its trade deficit is greater than the combined deficits of the second to tenth countries. Most countries make money in trade with the U.S., so they are reluctant to confront the U.S. unless absolutely necessary. Moreover, the U.S. is also the world's largest consumer market, with nearly $20 trillion in scale, accounting for one-third of the global market. If they abandon the U.S. market, finding other places to sell the surplus goods is a very tricky problem. Specifically regarding U.S.-China trade, last year the U.S. imported $524.6 billion from China, while China imported $163.6 billion from the U.S. The math is obvious; with a 34% tariff, the U.S. would receive more money. But even so, China still retaliated immediately. While most countries and regions in the world hesitated or compromised on tariffs against the U.S., China set a strong example. Next, we will see whether heavyweight players such as ASEAN, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union will follow suit, standing with China to retaliate or bow to the U.S. This will be a historic alignment.

The U.S. stock market has also plummeted in the past two days. Last night, the Nasdaq 100 index fell by 5.4%, and today's pre-market trading has dropped another 2.6%. I previously mentioned that a 20% pullback in the Nasdaq would be a signal to gradually buy the dip. I had been patient and did not act before, but now I've calculated that the pullback has already exceeded 19%. If it makes another dive tonight, it will exceed 20%, and I will start to buy in batches according to my plan. Buying U.S. stocks at this position is not necessarily safe, but at least a certain degree of risk has been released, making it more cost-effective and worth a shot. ……$BTC

Holding cash for opportunities

Last night, the US stock market was hit again, with the Dow Jones down 1.7%, the Nasdaq 100 index down 2.6%, and the S&P 500 index down 2%.

Many readers may not have a concept of this, as the US stock market fluctuates; to put it another way:

The Dow Jones has fallen 2.26% year-to-date, retreating 7.7% from its historical peak.

The Nasdaq 100 has fallen 8.24% year-to-date, retreating 13.23% from its historical peak.

The S&P 500 has fallen 5.11% year-to-date, retreating 9.22% from its historical peak.

This round of main upward wave indeed shows quite obvious signs of peaking. As for the extent of the pullback, I judge it to be on the same level as that wave in 2022, which is in the range of 20-30%, so I haven't rushed to catch the bottom; so far, I haven't bought a single share.

Do you remember what I said before? Buying at a 10% drop has its pros and cons, buying at a 20% drop has a higher risk-reward ratio, and buying at a 30% drop guarantees profit without loss. This is not a prediction, but based on historical experience from 80 years of US stock market samples.

At that time, some readers asked whether this time might break historical patterns, rendering all historical samples ineffective. I can't say the possibility is zero, but it is highly unlikely, as some fundamental facts have not changed over the past 80 years. For example, the United States remains the most powerful military country in the world, as well as the largest financial country globally. The US dollar is still the world's number one currency, and these underlying facts will ensure the bottom line for US stock market pullbacks. Once it drops to a certain level, someone will buy, including me.

As for when to start buying, it will likely be after the Nasdaq 100 has retreated more than 20% from its high, the S&P has retreated 15%, and the Dow Jones has retreated 12%. Until then, I will remain patient and hold cash. After all, holding cash in dollars also yields an annualized return of 4%, which already exceeds the returns from A-shares and public bonds.