#比特币与美国关税政策

Trading Strategy: BTC Offensive and Defensive Framework Under Tariff Policy Changes

1. Event-Driven Trading

• Long Signal:

◦ Sudden tariff increase by the U.S. → U.S. stocks crash + Dollar index spikes and then retreats → BTC/USD breaks key resistance levels (e.g., upper Bollinger Band on weekly chart).

◦ Position Management: Use options combinations, buy call options + sell puts with low strike prices (to reduce premium costs).

• Short Signal:

◦ Tariff exemptions + Dollar index falls below 90 → Funds withdraw from safe-haven assets → BTC falls below the 30-day moving average and RSI > 70 (overbought correction).

2. Cross-Market Hedge Combination

• Classic Hedge: Long BTC futures + Short Dollar index futures (if judging that tariff conflicts are bearish for the dollar).

• Risk Warning: In early March 2020, during the initial pandemic phase, the dollar and BTC both fell simultaneously (liquidity crisis), need to be cautious of correlation reversal under extreme market conditions.

3. On-Chain Data Monitoring Checklist

• Whale Movements: Monitor U.S. institutional addresses (e.g., Coinbase custody wallets) for BTC inflows/outflows after the announcement of tariff policies.

• Stablecoin Flow: Growth in USDT/USDC market capitalization indicates funds entering the market, potentially offsetting selling pressure caused by tariffs.