DonovanReyes S

We have had 5 weeks of upward movement without healthy pullbacks; for those who are in spot, it is a good time to sell, as thanks to the great recovery I see it almost impossible for us to see new lows this year. However, one thing is clear: we are not going to leave all that liquidity until we surpass all-time highs, so if you have some profits, sell in spot, and if you have long positions above 90k, take profits, as we might lose strength in these weeks. No asset can rise for weeks without pulling back; what is possible is that with this pullback, it may start to lose dominance and shift to different altcoins.

You can analyze the following pullback; I feel that the rise was very quick and manipulated

Do they think we will break historical highs again?

Lately, a very negative market sentiment has been generated.
Historically, there are still many indicators missing to see a market top at #BTC and #alts , only this cycle is being different; and in my opinion, if we drop to 70k, it will be to have better returns by the end of the year and a higher ath than if we were to go from these points to ath.

This is the list of those who will attend the crypto regulations on Friday.
A day that could be very important and decide the direction of the market for the coming months; we have some of the most important people in the crypto space and regulators or project creators, for example:

Trump
CZ
Vitalik
Charles H
Catie W

And many politicians, which could lead to important announcements and a day with a lot of volatility.
$BTC

Today, the government of the United States began evaluating the creation of a strategic reserve with $BTC
And today at 2:30 PM Washington time, the meeting started to see what they will do with cryptocurrencies and the Czar of #Trump has already declared that they are starting to evaluate the possibility of a reserve, and also during the conference, the official page of regulations for #cripto for the USA was shown.

After a wave 2, the movements that are most likely are a wave 3 much more bullish to change the market trend, which will change upon breaking $102.5

It is possible that today we will see the retracement of a wave 2 around 96.5k$BTC , so at those points think of being good entry points before starting a wave 3 and that we have a recovery in the altcoins.
So in the next few hours I am bearish, but in the coming days and during February and part of March we may see rises towards cycle highs.

In the short term, a lot of liquidity has accumulated at the top of all the alts, and on Friday the futures of $BTC closed at 102k and will open at 97k, so we are going to have a good recovery in the sector and as long as we go through some good news during the month, the liquidity we reached today will fall to the historic maximum of 4 years.

I know that those who have #alts are exhausted, but we just experienced one of the largest capitulations; and I would say we have a 25% chance that tomorrow the #altseason will start.

Do you know what type of investor profile you are?

Investment is very important and depends on

• risk profile and age
• your standard of living, income, responsibilities, etc.
• the time you will dedicate to your investment
• the economic cycle
And all these factors change over time.

Now that you know what your profile is, you can start looking at the assets and the volatility you are willing to accept.

The main variables are
• age (since you can take more risks and have fewer responsibilities)
• involvement
You can take on more risk if you will have more time to monitor them
• income
Since they can be fixed, variable, or even dependent on completing tasks, the more fixed income you have, the more you can risk and create a better investment habit.

Your preferences
Since you may like a certain asset
And risk aversion, as there are people like Warren B who continue to invest heavily in equities, as you can choose whether you want to leverage or go purely spot.

Let's see what type of investor you are?

The more time you have, the more you can risk and generate more compound interest.

Short term: - 3 years

Bonds, Sofipos, checking accounts

Medium term: 3-7 years
• #bitcoin bitcoin gold stocks

Long term: + 7 years
• real estate, futures, altcoins (trading)

Understand the liquidity you have and how much you will spend in the future.

Today a colleague sent this and it is very true, we must see if the 96k $BTC can be broken in these days to see if this fractal left by the ETF exit a year ago does something similar or if, on the contrary, we are forming an expanded flat that leaves us around 86k and goes to collect all the liquidity from the black stripes; so tomorrow is a very important day to consider and find out if it breaks upwards (which personally I believe is the case due to the great rebound and capitulation today) or if we are going to look for new lows to continue rising.

I do swing trading, the truth is I prefer to have lower returns of 20 - 30% monthly, but without any fear of liquidations, in 5 months I have only lost money with Rune

The .618 is the golden ratio to the downside of a movement.
There is 1.1 and 1.618, which are places where depending on the waves we have a great possibility of the movements stopping.

It makes me laugh how almost everyone wants to short today, since we have reached the average correction of 20% that we have experienced throughout this cycle, and at most we will deepen 1 or 3% more at $BTC , (this is if we continue in a bullish market, which is 95% likely because we haven't touched any indicator), it was a better idea to short at 108k when it touched 0.618; and right now, any purchase below 92,500, which is the 0.618 of the corrective movement, is a good buying zone on the daily.

Even so, we are in a greater bullish trend and due to the BTC cycles, we cannot fall further, so my recommendation is not to go against the market.

Cyclically after the halving days we are in a correction that will last about 10 more days, after which I will rise for about 3 months and we will see the most important movements in the altcoins.

The retracement level that still remains is possibly between 90 and 86. And in the altcoins, not so much from the lows seen on December 20.

I would recommend closing half of the position, as we are likely to have a pullback over the next 10 days and then buy again at the end of next week.

Here is a very important chart that I saw today about BTC plan.
It indicates that starting from December 17, in the timeframe after the halving, we find a relative maximum of around 20 days and in which we will very likely start a correction from which we will look to reach new highs, especially in altcoins starting from the first week of January; so if you have longs activated or 0 liquidity, it can be dangerous.

Those of us with open positions in #eth should pay close attention today as we are touching an important support level that could be key to breaking upwards on a weekly basis or breaking down with a large red candle that could liquidate positions and potentially be a bear trap 🐻. Personally, I think we are in the retracement of a wave 4 and I will continue to increase my position in $ETH until it surpasses $3,800 because I believe that during this week the liquidity of BTC will pivot to ETH and it will be the most benefited during December and January in this #altseason .

Look at the levels we are at, since I started writing back in March of this year, I have received hundreds of comments about how we were being distributed or that we would never reach these levels in $BTC , so follow me so I can share with you the trades I made these days; it is likely that we have about 20~30 days of upward movement before the first strong liquidations, so using a lot of leverage at these levels can be dangerous; also, I have seen a lot of people deciding whether to close their positions in profit or loss, don't worry, we should hold our coins and longs until the end of the first quarter of 2025, and at most if you want more profits you can start migrating from #btc which likely has no more than 70% left until its cycle maximum to projects like $ETH which may have more than 100% left.

I know that most spot investors and some in futures are very happy with this great weekly candle of $BTC
In which it is amazing to say that we are over $81,000.
It is clear that not every week will we have these movements of a 25% increase, because if that were the case, next weekend we would be breaking 100k.
And although it is clear that we broke the corrective trend in that 9-month sideways movement, we now enter a new phase where we will be in an uptrend for 3 or 4 months; with its ups and downs we will gain ground in all currencies, especially for the altcoins.
And this is what many of us expected, that everything would explode upwards, and we deserve it; thus many doubts were cleared, and money to enter the market with the presidential election in the United States; although Kamala and her policies could be even more inflationary, they affected another sector of the market.

And in a few months we will see everything and everywhere cryptocurrencies, in news, YouTube, and even in videos with people talking about plants or food.
And they will be the ones we will sell our coins to by mid-2025, and so the markets behave. Since they are very cyclical and this happens time and again in all markets.
And although I have only posted bullish content, I will also do so when I sell my cryptos or go fully short.
Just as I posted on October 1 that I put my entire portfolio long in different projects like #btc $ETH $PEPE

Today we break #ath in $BTC