零下十三度

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Many people have left messages for Shisan, asking whether it's time to start bottom fishing.
Previously, Shisan mentioned a theory in an article: the Flying Knife Theory.
Do not reach out to catch flying knives in the air; wait until the knife falls to the ground and stops moving, then we can calmly pick it up.
Otherwise, you will end up with blood on your hands.
Therefore, whenever there is a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market, we need to give the market enough room to decline.
After all, this round of market has already risen a lot, and at this time, with some volatility in the economic data from the US, the possibility of a healthy correction is quite high.
It may last for 3 to 7 days.
Everyone should be prepared; when the market believes that it is about to enter a downward cycle, the market makers will take the opportunity to bottom fish the panic sellers, and then re-enter the upward trend.
After all, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has reached 92%.
Before this positive news comes out, a correction in the market is very necessary; otherwise, there will be insufficient upward momentum.
Just like boxing, you need to pull back your fist before you can hit harder.

Welcome to follow Shisan and join the Shisan circle.

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The market is indeed strange.
Today, I saw many people, including whales, increasing their positions in Ethereum, believing that it will break through 5000.
I, Shisan, do not deny it; it will definitely happen.
However, using dozens or even hundreds of times leverage is too terrifying. Those who shorted before have been completely wiped out, and now those who are going long will also be completely wiped out.
For us in the Shisan circle, we entered the market when the position was favorable. Now, the slight fluctuations in the market have almost no impact on us.
Long-term positions and short-term positions are separated, and having a reasonable and healthy position means there is no need to panic at all.
Even if this round of the market corrects by 20-30 points, it doesn't matter; it will come back in a month or two.

Recently, many people are very anxious.
Watching others make money is very uncomfortable, and the most common question in the comments on Shisan's backend these days is what can I buy now?
When the market was down before, I didn't dare to buy in, and now that it has risen, I want to chase in...
What kind of investment mentality is this if not that of a retail investor?
In the crypto world, remember one iron rule: never chase highs. Only enter the market during a pullback, and your chances of losing money will decrease by 50%.
Any investment risk always comes from rising prices.
Some people say that since they believe Bitcoin will eventually break one million per coin, then buying at this price is very appropriate.
If you can have such a long-term investment vision, then there is no problem; entering the market now is great.
But can you hold until the day it reaches one million? Clearly, you cannot.
We all overestimate our investment abilities and mindset.
There was a friend who consulted me when Ethereum was at two thousand, asking if he could buy. My answer was yes, and I told him to buy while it was falling.
He clearly told me he would hold for at least 3 years, regardless of market ups and downs, he wouldn't move.
...
But when Ethereum fell to 1500, he couldn't hold on anymore and asked me if it would go to zero. Even though I did my best to reassure him, he repeatedly resisted selling.
In the end, he still couldn't hold on and sold everything when it was over 1400, saying Ethereum was trash.
Later, when Ethereum dropped to over 1300, he even mocked me, saying he was glad he didn't listen to me...
Now, try mocking me again.
So, you and I, including Shisan's investment abilities and mindset, have not yet reached the level of 10 years or longer.
Shisan has the right mindset, but due to realistic factors, I can't do it; I can only adhere to the investment cycle of bull and bear markets.
If you can be like Shisan, you can stand firm in the crypto world.
Never overestimate your investment abilities by chasing high prices in the market.
You think you can be calm when the market is falling, but in reality, you absolutely cannot do it.

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What might happen to the market next?
First, let me emphasize that everyone should not gamble on the market; you must separate long-term positions from short-term ones.
Recently, many people have been shouting that a bear market is coming, claiming that Bitcoin has reached its peak and urging everyone to run.
Are these people right? Have they affected you?
I hope everyone will analyze it seriously for themselves, rather than just listening to what others say, including Thirteen.
The risk is definitely rising; all the way up, Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen a lot, which means a healthy pullback in the market could be very normal.
In a normal trend, after a significant rise, a pullback is needed to consolidate the upward trend.
Everyone should pay close attention to the position of 117,000. If it successfully breaks below, the possibility of a pullback is still very high.
Especially at this moment, there are clearly more people going long than short in the market; the big players are likely to harvest a wave downward.
Currently, the short positions have basically been harvested.
In response to this situation, Thirteen has made corresponding strategies within the Thirteen circle.
The strategies in the Thirteen circle are very simple and easy to execute, with very low risk, so everyone can pay attention to them.
If the market pulls back, what position will it reach? Many people in the market are even seeing 70,000, or even 15,000.
I just want to say, these people really say whatever they want; if they happen to be right, they will be hailed as heroes; if wrong, it doesn't matter, everyone will forget in a few days.
Thirteen looks down, seeing a maximum of breaking 100,000 and a minimum of 95,000; if we break 100,000, we can boldly enter the market.
This round of the bull market is far from over; at least before the positive news of Ethereum ETF staking and interest rate cuts, the bull market will not end.
The market currently has no hint of a frenzied bull.
Therefore, any form of pullback is a good opportunity for us to enter the market.

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The current market trend is very strong.
Bitcoin has risen a lot from the 7000s, and Ethereum has risen a lot from 1300 to now.
Especially when Ethereum experienced a crash that left everyone in despair, Shisan was encouraging everyone to hold on and, if possible, to buy the dip, and now everyone should have made profits.
However, at that time, there were also some friends who chose to give up when they were in despair. I remember at that time a friend scolded me in the community and then left. I wonder how this friend is doing now?
Do they regret cutting losses and leaving at that time?
Shisan has always been telling everyone in the articles that we are currently in a bull market in the crypto circle, and any drop is just a smokescreen by the whales. While we are panic selling our blood-stained tokens, they are quietly entering the market to buy the dip.
A batch of people entered the market around 2000, and their holding cost can be said to be whatever they want.
At that time, Ethereum became a target for everyone in the crypto circle to attack, and Shisan was continuously instilling faith in everyone. However, under that circumstance, it was almost ineffective.
Now Ethereum has successfully risen above 4000, and it is expected to rise above 5000 by the end of the year without much issue.
I wonder if Shisan can repeat the phrase:
Cherish Ethereum below 3500.
This phrase was once an important basis for haters to mock Shisan, but looking back now, or looking back at the end of the year, or looking back ten years later...
Who really is the laughing stock?
In life, having a long-term vision is very important, especially in the investment field.
If you want to live a fulfilling life, you need to plan for the long term, read more books, and recharge yourself.
If you want to make money from investments, you need to focus on the future performance of the investment targets rather than the current situation.
But most people are very shortsighted; they want to make money immediately upon entering the crypto circle, otherwise they curse and leave. Such people, regardless of what they do, are basically unlikely to succeed.
Some say being poor is fate; in fact, it’s your own poverty mindset.

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Those who say Bitcoin can't rise anymore and that we're entering a bear market should go to the eighteenth level of hell!

The biggest positive news in the crypto world hasn't arrived yet, like interest rate cuts, or Ethereum ETF staking approvals...

Once the good news lands, it will inevitably push the market into a true bull frenzy.

However, anything can happen in the crypto world, so don't bet on one direction; the most important thing is to manage your positions well.

There is a high possibility that the market will continue to soar.

Let's eat meat!

In the short term, there is indeed a huge risk of market correction. This risk is not the risk of a bear market, but rather the need for the underlying speculators to accumulate positions. The market's trend often runs counter to the retail traders' perception. When we feel that the market might crash and fall into panic, the market often rebounds. When we think the market will skyrocket and buy frantically, it often declines. Therefore, while there is indeed a risk of correction in the short term, we do not need to panic; instead, we should see it as a great opportunity to buy at the bottom. The cryptocurrency market isn't complicated; as long as you can see through the essence behind things and dance to the rhythm of the speculators, you won't lose money. Many people consistently lose money and feel that the crypto market is unpredictable because they are too obsessed with short-term speculation. If you take a longer view alongside Shisan, you'll find that the crypto market still offers the highest dividends among all investment markets. There are indeed investment targets with definite investment value, combined with a huge price range, allowing us to earn many times more than other investment markets. In the short term, many traders encourage you to trade frequently every day; even if you make mistakes, they'll encourage you, making you feel elated. Little do they know, the more you trade, the more commissions they can earn. But can you actually make money? For those who like trading contracts, reflect on this: have you made any money? Shisan's exclusive 30% commission link: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C Just click to register, or directly enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

Is this the peak of the bull market?
Of course not, if everyone looks at the current crypto space, the retail investors basically don't want to speak, and there hasn't been any frenzied buying behavior.
What everyone feels right now is more fear.
At this time, do the big players want to end the bull market and enter a bear market? Who are they cutting?
The market won't turn bearish when no one is paying attention, just as it won't start harvesting when the retail investor's capital pool hasn't taken shape.
If there is to be cutting, it can basically only be the old retail investors, and the old retail investors have very strong roots, making them hard to cut.
For example, Shisan, right now is less than 70% cash position, mainly concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and some mainstream coins like SOL.
Even if we directly enter a bear market now, I can hold out until the next bull market.
So entering a bear market now, the big players can't make money at all, and the funds they can cut are very few, at least not enough to fill the big players' stomachs.
Therefore, the frequent theories of a bear market in the current market can be seen as the big players maliciously guiding public opinion, often at this time the big players are quietly laying out in the background.
The Ethereum spot ETF pledge has been seeking approval, as for when it will be approved we don't know, but it will definitely be approved at some point, possibly in the next few weeks or maybe next year.
No matter what, once it's approved, it will be a game-changing positive news.
Because investment institutions have a massive amount of funds, if they can obtain returns through pledging, they will definitely lay out in advance.
They are not fools, and when laying out, they will definitely use various means to create negative public opinion, suppressing the price of Ethereum, giving them a cycle to lay out.
They might even create a gap for a sharp drop to trigger market panic, absorbing more blood-stained chips.

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Recent updates are not guaranteed, and I apologize for this.
During this time, I, Shisan, am preparing to explore various places and also allow myself to relax both physically and mentally. However, within the Shisan circle, I will send messages to everyone every day.
I take each person's comments seriously and respond to them.
In the past few days, most of the friends have entered a state of fear because there are many predictions in the market that prices will drop, signaling the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market.
Many people are very scared, believing that their statements make a lot of sense, and some even say that Bitcoin will soon experience a sharp drop, falling to 40,000 to 60,000.
Many people have started to panic, and a lot of friends have left me messages expressing their concerns about a sharp decline.
Here, I want to give everyone a peace of mind: the probability of Bitcoin entering a bear market directly from this position is zero.
That’s right, it’s zero.
It is almost impossible for the market to directly enter a bear market from the current position.
The core reason is simple: the big players are still in the layout phase, and the small investors from outside have not yet entered the market. Coupled with the macroeconomic environment, the market cannot directly enter a bear market from now.
Determining whether we will enter a bear market is actually very simple: just look at those around you who don’t usually pay much attention to the cryptocurrency world; they are starting to talk about Bitcoin and are preparing to invest a little money.
There are still frequent occurrences of various cryptocurrencies skyrocketing in an instant in the market, with some experiencing tenfold or even dozens of times increases in a single day, causing all the small investors to rush forward mindlessly as if they were on adrenaline.
Various new projects are popping up like mushrooms after rain, each claiming to change the world and promising to deliver hundredfold returns...
Major communities are starting to organize small investors to crazy rush to level 1...
At this point, we can determine that the bull market has come to an end. At this time, we must resolutely retreat and leave at most 10% of our positions to observe.
This is what a bull market is.

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In fact, when everyone is judging the rise and fall of the market, they can also make their own judgments based on the performance of the US stock market or the A-share market.

As long as there are no huge fluctuations in the global stock markets, the cryptocurrency market will not experience a significant crash.

In recent days, the global stock markets have been performing very stably, so the possibility of a crash in the cryptocurrency market at this time is almost non-existent.

From this point, everyone can see who has been talking nonsense every day.

It is completely baseless bearishness; such people are essentially gambling on probabilities, just like predicting earthquakes. They predict an earthquake every day, and eventually, they will get it right once.
If they get it right this time, they can brag about it for a lifetime, attract enough traffic in the cryptocurrency circle, then make a profit and eventually disappear.
Everyone must stay away from such people, remember!

Recently, many people are still obsessed with leveraging in this market.
In fact, the risk of leveraging at this position is very high.
Of course, I believe the bull market is still ongoing, and the mad bull has yet to arrive.
However, leveraging at this position could very well prevent you from holding on until the mad bull comes.
For example, at the beginning of the year, Ethereum was around 3000, and many people leveraged a lot.
After that, Ethereum dropped all the way down, hitting a low of 1300, and even a twofold leverage would have resulted in liquidation.
Now Ethereum has returned above 3600, but you have already been liquidated, so what does the current brilliance have to do with you?
Conversely, if you had leveraged below 1500, wouldn’t you feel particularly secure now?
Of course, leverage incurs transaction fees for the exchanges, and this fee is not low.
Exchanges love it when everyone opens contracts.
Because this is their main way of making money.
And we, the spot holders, are not favored since we do not let them turn our holdings into cash.
So, leverage should definitely be used in a bear market.
Not now; if you leverage now, no one knows whether you are at the peak, mid-slope, or at the foot of the mountain.
You can only rely on luck.

In the cryptocurrency world, the lives of retail investors are often quite unfortunate, as the whales will play you to death. As long as you enjoy playing, there will always be a day when you meet your end.

With the market warming up, scammers are becoming more rampant.
Today, Shisan was also tricked, although it wasn't a lot of money, it was quite disgusting.
At the end of each month, Shisan pays the assistant's salary, as the assistant helps me with many things.
Although the past few months have been relatively quiet, once the market picks up, the workload will gradually increase.
Usually, we communicate via Telegram, and just like before, we are reminded that it's time to pay the salary, asking me to transfer the money to his Binance account, along with his Binance account number. You can see the details in the screenshot below.
Shisan quickly transferred July's salary to him.
However, today the assistant kept messaging me asking for the salary, and I was confused?
After some communication, I discovered that he may have been hacked.
The scammer used our previous chat records to steal this month's salary.
What should we do in this situation? Shisan can only resend the salary to the assistant, and this loss is on me.
It's not a lot of money, but it's extremely disgusting.
More importantly, I remind everyone to be cautious about scams on Telegram; any financial transactions, regardless of the amount, must be double-checked.
At the same time, Shisan's account is at higher risk; once Shisan privately messages anyone asking for money or coins, any financial transactions are scams.
Shisan will never contact anyone regarding funds for any reason or in any form.

Please be very careful.

Whenever the market declines, various gloomy emotions always emerge. People keep stirring up all kinds of terrifying sentiments, and even some KOLs leverage their influence to boast wildly, believing that just a small drop means a bear market has arrived. Some even think that Bitcoin will fall to 40,000 to 50,000. Is that something a person would say? Thirteen believes that after this round of bull market, it's highly likely we will never see Bitcoin at 40,000 again in our lifetime. Thirteen thinks the lowest price in the next bear market will be around 6. When it reaches that point, Thirteen will fire all the bullets he can. Then he will continue to hold long-term, hoping that at that time you will still be with Thirteen. Therefore, everyone should not easily believe the various terrifying statements currently circulating; some people's words are like flatulence. When the market crashed previously, where were those shouting that the bear market had arrived? These people are the real culprits for most of the friends losing money. They open their mouths, say a few random words, and make countless fans panic and hand over their blood-stained chips, leaving no chance to break even. So everyone must remain rational. Control your position reasonably; when the market is in panic, we increase our positions, and when the market is inflating, we reduce our positions. In a big bull market, we take profits and exit, waiting for opportunities in the bear market. Only in this way can we establish ourselves in the crypto world.

Keep going, crypto people,
Welcome to follow Thirteen.

Brothers and sisters, long time no see.
During this time, I have been looking around, my mind was a bit muddled, and I actually went for a tour in Chongqing. I came back and got heatstroke, and I've been coughing ever since.
In the past few days, the market has started to pull back.
Everyone should focus on the position of 111500; this level is the daily support. If it breaks, the short-term market trend will look a bit bad.
However, there is no impact on the medium to long term; I still see a bull market.
What is the most likely trend of the market? It is to start a pullback before the big bull market kicks off, and just when everyone loses confidence in the bull market, it suddenly begins.
Just like before, when the market fell into despair, it then initiated a big surge.
So now, if there is a sense of despair in the market, don't follow the despair; this is the opportunity for wealth.
Boldly enter the market to buy the dip, and manage your positions and risks well.
In this round of the bull market, we must eat our fill.

In the past two days, the most common question from friends has been whether to take profits? Is it still possible to buy ** now?
These questions are actually difficult for Thirteen to answer.
No one can predict the short-term market, and anyone who confidently predicts the future is a fraud.
For example, right now, some whales have already started taking profits, while some stubborn micro-strategies are still continuing to buy.
Whose advice should we follow?
If you sell and it continues to rise, watching others make money while you lose is even harder to bear.
If you buy and the market experiences a pullback, it's even more painful and may even break your resolve.
All of this is due to the lack of long-term planning in everyone’s investments; it's all about taking one step at a time.
Thinking that as long as I join a KOL's circle, I can just lay back and relax.
In reality, joining a circle could also be the start of your nightmare.
When you operate alone, if you have a small risk appetite, the worst you can lose is your principal.
Following a KOL with a bigger risk appetite, leveraging, borrowing, and other operations can leave you deeply in debt.
Have you noticed that almost all leading KOLs who take trades have profited? Why? Because you can't find them.
Moreover, KOLs are also human, not gods; achieving a win rate of 60% is already a rare occurrence, while what we often see is a win rate of over 90%...
If the win rate were truly that high, why would I bother with a circle? I would just sell my ancestral home and go all in, and my wealth would have far surpassed Buffett's by now.
So, some things are quite straightforward and easy to understand.
If we change our mindset and extend the time frame for layout and selling, or if we firmly insist on dollar-cost averaging during a real bear market and selling during a bull market, we can also make profits.
The existence of the Thirteen circle is to have someone constantly supervising you.
Imagine if we could really do dollar-cost averaging in a bear market and sell now in a bull market, how much would you earn?
The average price of Bitcoin in the bear market was around 20,000; now it's 120,000, which is a 6x increase.
Ethereum was at 1,000 and is now at 3,800, which is a 3.8x increase.
Solana was at 10 and is now at 197, which is a 19x increase.
Now look back and see if your current investment returns have achieved anything like this?

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Although Shisan has been very careful, trying not to stand out and keeping a low profile, it still attracted the attention of some people.
People keep approaching Shisan to request collaboration or even to directly acquire this IP.
The offered price is 200.
To be honest, it's hard not to be tempted; after all, I don't have to do anything and can gain for free.
I can also start a new account and begin again; as long as Shisan works hard, the fan base will quickly return.
But Shisan still refused.
Because I know that if they acquire my IP, the only thing they want to do is to deceive as much money as possible from the fans.
They will use various professional means to incite greed in everyone, leading them to voluntarily give away their money.
Then they will disappear as soon as the bear market hits.
This is the classic trick in the crypto circle.
After all, it's just a circle that has collapsed; rights protection? Who do you turn to? Even if you find them, what can you use to protect your rights?
Cryptocurrency markets were never protected here.
Let alone you can’t possibly find them.
In summary, Shisan cannot have this greed; it is wrongdoing.
The IP 'Minus Thirteen Degrees' is solely and completely controlled by Shisan alone and will not cooperate with anyone or any institution.
It only provides investment advice and analysis for everyone's reference.
No high-risk investments will be made.
It may not show value in the short term, but in the long run, the probability of losing money is extremely low. Many friends in the Shisan circle strictly follow Shisan's investment strategy and have decisively reconnected with Shisan, even binding for life.
Thank you for your trust.

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