零下十三度

All fans of Shisan:
If you register an exchange with Shisan's Binance link, you can directly get a 30% commission rebate.
Among them, the link automatically returns 20%; Shisan manually returns 10%.
Shisan's status is not big, so the platform's rebate ratio for me is not very high, 30% is already the limit.
If you have a large trading volume and many contracts, registering with Shisan's link is the best choice.

Shisan's exclusive rebate link: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C
Just click to register, or directly enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:30]
These days I've seen quite a few friends still operating wildly, some of whom are already trapped and have lost a lot. Now privately asking Thirteen what to do?
What can be done? Thirteen can only minimize losses based on your actual situation.
There is no room for operation in this market, we already have enough spot positions, and there is absolutely no need to gamble on a small fluctuation.
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:31]
I know many other bloggers give strategies every day, providing orders every day, claiming their accuracy can reach over 90%.
Everyone can ask actual investors who have entered the circle if their success rate is that high?
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:31]
Basically, they are all struggling on the poverty line, asking the teacher why I am losing money while you are making it?
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:33]
The teacher will say you didn’t fully follow the strategy, and indeed many times this is the case. Retail investors cannot fully follow KOLs because their risk tolerance and capital size are different. They might be using 1% of their capital to trade, and they can wait until the market reaches the position they want, then take profits.
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:34]
But ordinary retail investors can’t wait at all. They often take the blogger's strategy as a divine command, believing it’s guaranteed profit, resulting in large positions entering the market. After entering, when the market fluctuates, their mindset collapses, and they often stop-loss and exit at the lowest point.
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:35]
When Thirteen first entered the crypto circle, I also interacted with many communities, including many friends around Thirteen who are technical bloggers. They did a big business, but their real income does not come from trading profits but from membership fees.
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:35]
Including Thirteen last year, it was the same; last year, the market rose quite well, and more people came in. One-fifth of my profits came from membership fees.
Thirteen, [2025-06-30 23:36]
This is the actual situation in this circle.
I hope everyone does not blindly believe in bloggers. Based on Thirteen's years of experience in the crypto circle, only by making friends with time can one make money.
Apart from that, there are no other opportunities.

Let’s encourage each other.

Last night was a rush for the Yu7, damn.
Thirteen has been rushing for this kind of stuff since the Xiaomi 1, can't believe that at this age, still have to rush to buy a car.
Almost didn't manage to get a car this year.
Prepared two phones, one to rush for an in-stock car, and another to rush for an order.
As a result, the main phone had a system malfunction after entering, had to use a backup phone to rush, after paying the deposit, the lock order page didn’t load, waited over ten seconds for it to load, then locked the order, it was already more than a minute past.
What the hell is this, this is a 300,000 yuan car, not a toy.
3 minutes to secure a 200,000 yuan deposit, too freaking crazy.
In recent years, the most I’ve heard from Thirteen is that the economic situation is bad, everyone is downgrading consumption, is this what downgrading consumption looks like?
However, Thirteen has also seen many people, especially many Xiaomi fans, taking out loans to buy, which really isn’t necessary, after all, the current economic environment is indeed not good, try not to incur debt.
Also, some young people bring their elderly parents on-site to pay the down payment for their own children.
Although I don't approve, I can understand, after all, it’s hard to find a car priced around 300,000 that can give you the emotional value of a few million luxury cars.
And also be family-friendly.
The reason for saying this in the square is that the user profile in the cryptocurrency circle highly overlaps with that of Xiaomi users, hoping everyone does not impulsively consume.
Take a look at how your account's current profit situation is? Future investments must be planned, cannot be blind.

Fraudsters are coming, everyone should not click randomly, and definitely do not give the verification code.

Brothers, a new type of scam has emerged, please be very careful.
You can see from the screenshot below, when this person first contacted me, I thought it was a complaint from a hater because a certain platform account was banned.
As a result, today another fan sent me the same message, word for word.
And this fan happened to be online, saw the content sent to me and said it wasn't him, someone had hacked his account.
Moreover, the account does not have this SCAM mark.
This world is really crazy.
These scammers provide bots that will make you provide a verification code.
But in order to prevent risks, I used a backup account for registration, and did not bind anything, so there was no risk.
If your phone number is linked to your Binance or other platform accounts, and you have not set up multi-factor authentication, then your money is definitely gone.
Scams will always exist.
Please remember, do not click on unknown links casually, and definitely do not provide verification codes.
You must be extremely cautious.
In the crypto world, we can lose money, but we must never be scammed. Although scammers may go to hell, they can at least enjoy your money in this life.
You can only miss this bull market in extreme sorrow and self-blame.
This feeling is something I have experienced before, and it can be said that it is worse than death.
I hope all friends who pay attention to me will be extremely careful.

Investing in the crypto world should not lead to a state of imagination.
Many friends like to look at K-line charts afterwards and fantasize about if they had bought at this position, maintained selling here, and added 10x leverage, how great it would be now!
What if...
It's hard to buy early knowledge, just look at those big whales, they didn't sell at the high point or buy at the lowest point.
The market has plummeted these days, and in order to maintain a healthy position, they hurriedly sold off, causing a chain reaction of cascading downward spirals.
However, they still kept most of their spot positions intact; they did not move. Their position control is excellent, so overall, they are also making a profit.
For retail investors, we shouldn't expect to catch every market fluctuation.
In fact, during a bull and bear cycle, capturing 1-2 fluctuations is enough; we need not pay attention to the ups and downs in between.
In a major bear market, we slowly start to buy the dip, and in a major bull market, we decisively take profits.
From now on, investing with a focus on capturing this fluctuation, no one in the crypto world can cut me off.
Human thinking has a strange loop; when the market continues to fall, people think it will keep falling, even believing the crypto world will collapse and disappear.
Conversely, when the market continuously rises, they become euphoric, thinking it will keep rising without stopping.
Thus, they cut losses at low points and chase highs at high points, buying high and selling low.
Human nature is like this; it cannot be changed.
But breaking this recognition is also very easy. Just read some of the articles from Shisan, strictly follow the strategies within the Shisan circle to control positions, manage investment targets, and leave the rest to time; everything will become much easier.

Exclusive 30% commission link for Shisan: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C
Click to register directly or enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

Everyone, let's take a look at the trend of Ethereum.

Many people have been asking whether it's possible to buy at the bottom?
At this position, there was almost no pause; it shot straight up, meaning there is no support at this level, and it's easy to drop down.
Setting aside technical analysis and news without greed, just looking at this trend, buying at this position carries the highest risk. Of course, there's a possibility that the market could directly reverse here, but the probability is very low, less than 30%.
So at this position, the probability of the trend is as follows: after a few days of consolidation, the probability of continuing to drop to the 2000 range is 40%, the probability of sideways consolidation is 30%, and the probability of a V-shaped reversal upwards is 30%.
With these probabilities in front of us, everyone should know how to choose.
It's best not to pay too much attention to various news, as most of them are about whales selling Ethereum, with only a few occasionally buying at the bottom.
How much false trading and fake news is mixed in this? Although on-chain data is real, what the data wants us to see may differ significantly from the actual situation.
So in the next few days, everyone should keep a calm mindset.
In the coming days, the market may rebound, but after failing to find support, it may continue to drop.
For those who strictly control their positions as per the advice of Shisan, there’s no need to panic now; just sleep peacefully and buy at the right time.
Don’t look at account assets; it may have decreased by tens of thousands. This is just a string of numbers; until you take profits and exit, whether you have more or less money is meaningless.
Some say, Shisan, although you said that the risk of a decline is very high, you didn't tell everyone to sell but instead advised them to strictly control their positions, which makes you unqualified.
Although Shisan can feel that the risk of decline is very high, I am making predictions about the future; no one can be certain about things that haven’t happened.
Shisan is not a fortune teller; I’m just an old vegetable in the crypto circle. If I could accurately predict the future, even once, it would be enough to make me financially free.
Being able to remind everyone of the risk of a pullback is already my best effort.

Exclusive 30% rebate link for Shisan: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C
Just click to register, or directly enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

Previously, Shisan clearly stated within the circle that Bitcoin has formed a double top, and there may be pressure in the future market, even within the next 1 to 2 months, the pressure on the market will be significant.
I just didn't expect the market to react so quickly, suddenly dropping, especially Ethereum, which became the target of criticism, leading the entire market down.
Earlier, when Ethereum rose from 1300 to 2600, Shisan informed everyone to clear all leveraged positions in hand and only keep reasonable spot positions.
Since then, Ethereum has remained very strong, looking eager to challenge 3000, often standing above 2700.
Some haters say Shisan will never be able to afford four dishes, saying I am too timid in my investments.
They not only did not reduce their positions, but also chased the price higher above 2700, and now they are not saying much, this is purely gambling.
Investment must never be a gamble; reasonable positions are crucial. At least in this wave, we in the Shisan circle were prepared for this decline. Shisan has repeatedly mentioned that Ethereum may return to the 2200 range.
And has been continuously informing everyone not to casually bottom-fish; bottom-fishing must wait until the knives have landed and stopped moving, then slowly pick up.
The real opportunity comes when everyone is most desperate; this is not the case right now, as many people hold high expectations for the future rebound, thinking this position is already very good for bottom-fishing.
As for the current market trend, it has already weakened; after that, it is highly likely that we will only see prosperity again when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates. However, this cycle will not be too long, at most one or two months, and cryptocurrency can start again.

Exclusive 30% commission link for Shisan: https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CH3VL36C
Click to register directly, or enter the invitation code: CH3VL36C

In terms of the market, Thirteen mentioned a few days ago that the volatile market will continue.
Without significant positive news to attract funds, the market will not change.
Bitcoin is still around 104, and Ethereum is fluctuating around 2500.
At least right now, there are no signs of any trend change. A couple of days ago, a friend privately debated with me, believing that the market would definitely change yesterday, with great certainty, even wanting to bet his life on it.
Thirteen, being kind-hearted, did not argue with him.
Now this friend has stopped talking.
Previously, Thirteen has repeatedly stated that one should not overly emphasize technical analysis, nor should one place too much importance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings.
Because in this volatile market, technical analysis is mostly ineffective, as the forces of both bulls and bears are relatively balanced. Of course, making high sell and low buy trades within a volatile range is also possible.
But if you enter the market right when it starts to change, whether you lose or gain depends on luck.
Recently, everyone should not believe various positive news, nor should they layout investments based on it, as the risks are too great; one must be cautious.
According to our Thirteen Circle's investment method, regardless of whether the market rises or falls, we can respond calmly.
The weekend has arrived; I wish everyone a pleasant weekend.

Keep it up, crypto community,
Welcome to follow Thirteen, let’s traverse through the bull and bear markets together and see through the intricacies of the crypto world.

Once the U.S. economy encounters problems, it will suddenly erupt without any of us knowing.
Because before the eruption, they will do everything possible to beautify the data to cover up the fact of economic collapse. Once it starts, it will be a devastating blow to the crypto world.
The U.S. has a circuit breaker mechanism, but the crypto world does not; a halving in value within an hour is also a high-probability event.
What will we do then?
The vast majority of people in the crypto world will be instantly bewildered; one moment they are envisioning luxury cars and beautiful women, and the next moment they start considering buying electric cars to join the yellow vest army.
Even without an economic crisis, this scene will occur at the moment a bear market arrives.
How can we avoid such things from happening to us? Everyone should start preparing for this now.
Of course, this bull market has not ended yet; thirteen is just giving everyone a reminder about the risks.
Never get complacent. Some people are making money in the crypto world, and when they go downstairs and take a look around, they feel there are so many poor people. They work hard selling a few pounds of vegetables to earn a little money, while I lie in bed and earn what they make in a month every day.
Once, I had dinner with a crypto friend, and a young lady came over to hand out flyers; they opened a flower shop.
At that time, this friend disdainfully said, 'Can this even make money? What age are we in...'
Later, the bear market came, and this friend went from being a wealthy person to being in debt, while the young lady who opened the flower shop still ran her shop and lived a comfortable life.
People in the crypto world must not detach from the realities of life; do not become disconnected from reality.
Otherwise, you will become complacent, thinking you are amazing, but in the eyes of others, you are just a clown.
To this day, the old man at the gate downstairs scoffs at thirteen, this person who stays at home doing nothing every day.
Several times he has advised me, 'Young man, it’s better to find a solid job; that way, you can feel secure.'
You can't rely on your parents...

Let's chat casually today.
The tone of this bull market should not bring any surprises; our investments normally can make money in the future.
Many friends started to go all in after getting a positive answer here, and I have emphasized this many times.
We are not all-knowing and all-powerful; the future cannot be predicted.
The most certain thing in the crypto world is its high risk; you never know when a black swan might appear, leading to a market crash that breaks countless hearts.
Currently, what I worry most about is the economic issues in the U.S. that could trigger an economic crisis.
An unreliable president, after regaining power, is becoming increasingly reckless. The key issue is that the U.S. debt has reached $36 trillion, and it needs to pay $1 trillion in interest on this national debt each year, which exceeds the total of defense spending and healthcare.
In human history, no entity has ever faced such a high fiscal deficit without going bankrupt.
The U.S. has relied on its economic dominance and dollar hegemony to offload its economic risks onto the world; when U.S. power was absolutely strong, this method worked.
It also created a miracle in human economic history where $36 trillion in debt did not lead to bankruptcy.
However, as the influence of dollar hegemony and economic dominance continues to wane, this game of borrowing money is becoming a bit difficult.
If the government cannot resolve the fiscal deficit issue, it is very likely to evolve into an economic crisis.
Trump also took many measures, the most straightforward being raising tariffs to increase revenue, but those tariffs are almost insignificant compared to the U.S. debt.
Therefore, we need to keep a close eye on the economy over there in the U.S.
At that time, we in the circle should take profits and exit early; it’s better to earn less than to be greedy.

The whole market's attention is focused on the interest rate decision made last night.
Thirteen went to bed early.
Because the outcome was already certain, there was no need to stay up late for it.
Today's market still shows no signs of improvement and remains volatile.
The only thing that piqued my interest was Trump calling Powell an idiot.
In this regard, I still respect Thirteen; the Federal Reserve can ignore Trump, and Trump has no way to do anything except for talking.
Trump thinks about lowering interest rates just like we do, but based on the data of the U.S. economy, he believes the current economic vitality is still strong. Although inflation has decreased, it is far from reaching the standard that requires a rate cut.
In fact, we don't need to have excessive expectations for rate cuts; otherwise, if the economy over there has problems, we will suddenly lose everything in the end.
Right now, everyone thinks everything is great, mainly because they made some profit and are ready to exit.
As we said before, when people truly make money, few will exit; most will be greedy for more.
Only when the market crashes and they can't bear it will they cut losses and exit.
After all, who doesn't want to achieve financial freedom in a bull market? Especially for newcomers in the cryptocurrency world, their ambitions are sky-high, but their lives are as fragile as paper.
Everyone can see those around them who made some small profits when they entered; they walk with a swagger, with their eyes on the top of their heads. When they meet Thirteen, they might think Thirteen is out of touch, actually considering making money gradually. Not making money when there is an opportunity is foolish.
Of course, the fate of these investors is often tragic.
Some friends will awaken like Thirteen, but most will struggle in the cryptocurrency world for a lifetime, never grasping the truth of slowly becoming rich.

Keep it up, crypto people,
Welcome to follow Thirteen, together we will navigate through the bull and bear markets, and see through the worldly matters of the crypto world.

Generally speaking, before a positive news comes out, smart money has already received the information in advance and quietly enters the market to pull up prices.
For example, regarding Trump's tariff policy towards China, insiders had actually received the news long ago and began to position themselves in advance.
However, Shisan did not expect Trump to actually dare to boast in public about his friends making billions of dollars using his information.
This is indeed quite bold, and it may involve deliberate market manipulation.
This is also one of the reasons why Shisan believes Trump's freedom will end along with his presidential term; he is indeed too reckless.
Thus, smart money often gets news in advance and enters early.
But after the positive news is released, they begin to quietly exit.
This is why the market tends to surge sharply before positive news is announced, while it often starts to correct after the news is out.
For instance, around the Bitcoin halving, prior to that, the market was skyrocketing, especially Ethereum, which surged to 4000.
As a result, after the positive news was released, a correction began.
This bull market cycle is not a fast bull, but a slow bull.
A slow bull can be very testing, challenging the patience of investors.
Most people will choose to give up because they can't endure it, and only a few can hold on.
Shisan hopes that our friends in the Shisan circle will be among those who hold on until the end.
Never let a mid-course crash push you off the table.
During the course of the bull market, there will be countless surges and crashes, just like the previous crash when Ethereum fell to the 1300s; how many people had their mentality completely exploded and left the crypto circle?
But as long as you hold on, look, everything comes back.
For long-term investors, it's actually quite difficult to lose money, provided that their investment methods and mindset do not go wrong.
For example, if you invest in a worthless altcoin and it drops over 90%, you are still suffering significant losses now; long-term investment is of no use at all.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is out, and there is still no rate cut.
This is almost a consensus reached by the entire market. At this critical moment, Powell's choice is actually correct.
Otherwise, the continuous cooling of the economy over the past few years could come to nothing.
But Trump is different; from his standpoint, he certainly hopes the economy can heat up quickly, especially with the midterm elections approaching. A strong economy can almost cover up all the negatives, increasing his chances of winning.
At the same time, he himself has made a lot of investments. As an 80-year-old man, I truly admire him; he has been striving for money and power.
Unlike him, at my thirties, I'm already thinking of taking it easy.
No rate cut aligns with market expectations; the market still needs to decide its direction on its own. The hope of relying on the Federal Reserve has now been shattered.
The market expects only one rate cut in 2025 and another in 2026...
Overall, this is not good news for the market. Many people predict the market will explode in the short term, but I believe the likelihood of this happening is low.
In the short term, the market may see sharp fluctuations, but don't expect a rapid explosion; it needs a long time to settle.
At the same time, it also requires favorable news because funds follow the news; they will use information asymmetry to profit by pulling the market ahead of time.

Technically, Bitcoin has formed a converging triangle pattern, looking bullish in the future. However, I am not overly superstitious about technical analysis; it can be useful in a clear trend, but in this volatile market, technical analysis can only serve as a reference, remember that.

In terms of market conditions, the most noteworthy event is the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow morning. In fact, there isn't much to pay excessive attention to.
Because the market outcome is already set in stone, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 0.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 99.9%.
The probability of keeping the rate unchanged in July is 85.5%.
Many people ask why I, Shisan, am not optimistic about the market in the next two months. This is one of the reasons.
As the situation continues to unfold, with the Federal Reserve not cutting rates, almost all the positive news has been digested by the market and already reflected in the prices.
What will drive the market up?
An upward market requires a catalyst, and the formation of this catalyst needs prolonged market negotiations to gradually restore market sentiment over time.
Currently, I believe that the next two months will be a process of accumulation, during which we may experience frequent price spikes. However, the median price will roughly range between 100,000 to 110,000.
Therefore, regardless of how the market rises next, we should not chase high prices when we have positions.
Only when we encounter drastic price spikes, such as Bitcoin dropping to the 90,000 range or Ethereum falling to the 2,100 range, should we consider entering the market to build positions.
Of course, I will clearly inform everyone about specific situations within my circle.
Everyone's assets and objective conditions are different, so strategies will vary.
However, in investing, it is still true that mindset is very important. If you cannot tolerate the fluctuations or the downturns of the market, you do not qualify to enjoy the prosperity of a bull market.
Recently, I hope everyone refrains from frequent trading; it is important to exercise restraint and control your hands.

Keep it up, crypto enthusiasts,
Welcome to follow Shisan, let's navigate through the bull and bear markets together and see through the complexities of the crypto world.