DEFEED

Probabilistic scenarios for the price of BTC, ETH, and the market.

🟢 Buy Pressure on BTC: A Boost for the Green Candle:
- BTC is a deflationary asset with 19.62 million of the total 21 million BTC already mined.
- The upcoming BTC Halving in late April will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance to about 450 BTC, equating to $20,904,300 per day.
- According to Bitmex Research, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $405 million on February 8, 2024, covering over 19 days of miner output. Despite potential fluctuations in daily inflows, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs across global social networks is likely to boost investment and BTC lock-up, as ETFs require 1:1 asset backing.
- The development of Bitcoin as a Layer 2 (L2) platform for DeFi, complete with staking and liquidity provision, is expected to further lock up liquidity, signaling a bullish outlook.

🟢 Buy Pressure on ETH: Leading the Charge:
- ETH stands as the prime beneficiary of Layer 2 and Layer 3 developments.
- Insider reports suggest the launch of an ETH ETF in May 2024, encouraging funds to accumulate ETH for 1:1 backing.
- A quarter of all ETH is staked, underscoring its commitment to network security and passive income for holders.
- The EIP1559 mechanism actively reduces ETH supply, with current inflation at -0.299%, reinforcing a deflationary trend.

🔮 My Probabilistic Scenario:
- I foresee BTC reaching $110,000-120,000 and ETH hitting between $9,000 and $11,000, with a potential shift to a bear market in Q1/2025.

This analysis stems from a comprehensive review of multiple sources, offering a forward-looking perspective on cryptocurrency dynamics. 🚀
#dyor #crypto2024

Absolutely. Here's the Americanized version — same message, but with that clean, confident, no-BS tone that speaks to traders who’ve seen some charts and some pain:

📊 How Volume Exposes Insider Moves and Market Manipulation

Let’s be real.

If you’ve been trading for more than five minutes, you’ve probably cursed out the same people as everyone else:

👉 Market makers.
👉 Whales.
👉 Shadow players who push the price, then vanish while you’re bagholding.

But what if I told you their tracks aren’t invisible?

Volume is your surveillance cam.

It tells you who’s actually moving the market—the crowd or someone with real size and real intent.

📚 Anna Coulling, author of A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis, puts it like this:

“Want to know what smart money is doing? Stop staring at price. Watch the volume.”

Even Jesse Livermore was volume-watching back when all he had was a ticker tape and intuition.

🧠 Why Volume Matters:
Sniffs out when a whale enters the pool

Flags manipulation before you get wrecked

Shows the difference between real trends and fakeouts

Lets you ride momentum without becoming exit liquidity

⚠️ The Catch?

Volume’s not gospel.
It won’t give you certainty. Nothing will.
You still need screen time, context, and that sixth sense that only comes from pain and reps.

But as a tool?
It’s lethal—especially if your goal is to ride smart money, not get steamrolled by it.

Bottom line?
Price shows you the result.
Volume shows you the game.
And if you learn to read it right, you’ll stop asking “what happened?”

…and start anticipating it before the candle closes.

Trump just cocked the shotgun and aimed it at the U.S. economy. The dollar? Dead man walking.
Why?
1️⃣ Uncle Sam’s drowning in debt—cheaper refinancing is a must.
2️⃣ Capital needs to be dirt cheap to lure investors back to the U.S.
3️⃣ Weak dollar = export boom + foreign money flooding in.
And Trump? He’s willing to trigger a recession to make it happen.
How he’s pulling it off:
🔹 Tariffs? Short-term chaos, long-term boost for U.S. manufacturing.
🔹 DOGE? Not just memes. It's a signal: brutal spending cuts = bond yields down = job market bleeding.
🔹 Rising unemployment forces Powell’s hand → rate cuts come faster.
Markets are already reacting:
📉 Now pricing in a 75bps cut instead of 50bps for January.
📉 10-year yields plummeted from 4.8% to 4.3%.
📉 DXY crashed from 110 to 104.
📉 U.S. stock market down 5-10% from its peak.
The Risk?
Inflation.
If tariffs push up prices but inflation stays tame, the Fed can keep slashing rates. More liquidity = short-term BTC pump.
But if inflation sticks? Welcome to the 1970s—stagflation edition.
And guess what? The best-performing asset back then was gold.
Now? Bitcoin is gold 2.0.
BTC = Safe Haven?
📊 Short-term? Still trades like a high-beta tech stock.
⏳ Long-term? It’s only a matter of time before it plays its real role.

$40B Wiped Out. What’s Next?
At the peak of the alt season in December, open interest (OI) was $72B.
Now? $32B.
$40B gone. Just like that.
Key takeaways:
📉 BTC OI at $89K → $16.93B (+25% from Nov’s $13.5B at $70K).
📉 SOL & ETH already below pre-Trump levels.
But here’s the real kicker:
🔻 Excess margin positions? ~$2.5B.
🔻 Hedge funds flipping bearish—fast.
And the big picture?
Trump’s first term was all about stocks.
His second? Bonds.
If his team starts breaking things to push bond yields lower…
🔥 Stocks tank.
🔥 Crypto front-runs the collapse.
You ready for the next wave?

Trading isn’t just patience. It’s a nerve-wrecking waiting game.

You watch the market chop sideways, doubt yourself, get frustrated, think about closing… then BOOM! The move finally comes—but you’re already out. Classic.

The real game? Not blowing your stack while the market messes with you. Volatility will fake you out, consolidation will bore you to death, and FOMO will finish the job. Only those who can endure the pain without making dumb moves survive.

So forget “profits come suddenly.” They come to those who haven’t turned into emotional wrecks long before that.

In crypto, everyone is your enemy.

Forget "fair play." Every KOL, every dev, every VC – they all want your money. It’s just a matter of time.

Post-American Order, Trump’s Chaos & the Crypto Market’s Panic
If you still don’t get it, crypto is the ultimate chaos detector. 24/7 market, extreme liquidity, instant reactions. So when Trump lit the trade war fuse, BTC was the first to feel the shockwave.
📉 Friday night, BTC was above $106K—then Trump dropped new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
🔥 Strategy? Crush, retreat, extract maximum gains.
🤬 Opponents? Canada and the EU hit back with 25% tariffs on $155B worth of US goods.
So, what the hell is actually happening?
Twitter has the answer. And it’s not pretty.
🔗 Full thread (https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1886082749779607997)
💬 TL;DR:
1️⃣ The US is pulling back from global dominance.
2️⃣ Marco Rubio admits a multipolar world is here—the unchallenged supremacy era is over.
3️⃣ Tariffs on allies like Mexico, Canada, and the EU—America no longer wants vassals, just transactional partners.
🎭 WSJ calls it "stupid," but every paradigm shift looks stupid at first. What’s really happening? The US is choosing to end its empire on its own terms.
📌 This isn’t the end of the US. It’s the end of the American Empire. But chaos? Chaos is here to stay.
Crypto sees it clearer than anyone. 🚀

BTC: Bears think they won? Cute. 🐻🎉
Price crawling to 94K. Panic in the streets. Shorts printing. But who’s really exit liquidity here? 🤔
Bitcoin is slowly suffocating alts, painting a perfect bear trap. Think for a second: bullish news everywhere, whales still in the game, markets still breathing. Too obvious of a dump—meaning it’s fake. 🔥
February 4th, China’s back. You really think this lull is accidental? Believe what you want. I’d love to nuke a fat short here, but it feels way too easy—aka, a setup. The coil is tightening, and when does it pop? When everyone stops paying attention. 🚀
Dominance? Classic manipulation—up, down, back again. But if BTC sends, alts will go nuclear.
So, we wait. We don’t do dumb things. Or, you know… just let the bots print for you. 🤖 The macro bull? Still roaring. 🟢

The Fed is smashing "Ctrl + P" again. On February 3, 2025, Jerome Powell is about to inject a crispy $241 billion into the system.
Will retail see any of it? Ha, not a chance.
But will this fuel a bull run like a Red Bull before a marathon? Now that’s the real question.

I wouldn’t want my kids to become traders—it’s probably the fastest route to mental health issues. 🧠💔 The past couple of days alone have been chaotic enough to bring many traders to tears:
1️⃣ China released a better AI tool at a lower cost and made it open-source. This has led people to believe that demand for high-end GPUs from big players like Nvidia may not be as high as anticipated. As a result, Nvidia's stock took a hit, dragging down U.S. stock markets along with it. And as always, when stocks fall, cryptocurrencies follow. 📉
2️⃣ Trump’s warnings about restricting exports to America (if certain demands aren’t met) have sparked fears of economic hostility. This uncertainty is causing the markets to drop further. 💥
3️⃣ Hopes for an FOMC interest rate cut are looking dim, which isn’t helping stabilize the markets either. Another drop. 🚨
In short, these past few days have been nothing short of a rollercoaster for the financial world. 🌪

📉 Why is the cryptocurrency market declining?
In my view, two key factors are driving the current drop:
1️⃣ Tech fears after DeepSeek’s launch: There’s rising concern about a potential tech-related crash, fueled by the hype surrounding DeepSeek. Cryptocurrencies are being hit particularly hard because they’re a high-risk asset class, especially when traditional markets are closed.
2️⃣ De-risking ahead of the FOMC meeting: It’s common for investors to reduce risk before key events like the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This is especially true now, given the heightened sensitivity to interest rates, the US dollar, and overall market liquidity.
⚠️ Conclusion: These factors combined are causing increased volatility and hesitation in the crypto space.

There are two types of people who hate cryptocurrency.
1. those who are not smart enough to make money from it.
2. They don't know anyone smart enough to help them do it.

Google Trends: the number of searches for "how to buy crypto" broke a historic record

🤔

The heat is on against Trump
Coinage founder: the reason Trump is launching memcoins before the inauguration is that he could face the risk of violating the Constitution and re-impeachment if he launches after taking office. According to the Constitution, no president is allowed to abuse his office for personal enrichment.
Meanwhile, Messari's founder called on Trump to fire the man who initiated the MELANIA project, criticizing the project team for being unprofessional.

Insider trading Melania
Entry 0.2$ exit 4 ( entry amount 800.000$ )
There are a dozen such purses, the Trump family is just shaving the market at the expense of their reputation

Trump's plan to launch 728 tokens and pay off U.S. national debt 🙆‍♂️

The launch of $TRUMP has brought significant changes to the cryptocurrency landscape. 🚀💰
However, it's not just a question of "bullish" or "bearish" trends. The situation is nuanced, with both positive and negative implications. Here's a breakdown of the two sides:

🔵 Bullish Case:
$SOL has been chosen as "America's chain." 🇺🇸
Strengthens Trump’s pro-crypto position, signaling a more favorable stance towards digital assets.
Massive approval on one of the largest stages, which could create a positive ripple effect for $BTC, RWA, DeFi, and altcoins that have recently struggled.
Could accelerate the influx of new capital into the crypto market (e.g., Moonshot climbing to the #1 spot in the app store is an early indicator).
Potential for greater attention next week, as this gains coverage in mainstream media.
📰Opens the door for increased crypto innovation, capital inflow, and new projects in the U.S., signaling a clear "green light" for growth. 🟢

🔴 Bearish Case:
Liquidity drain: The higher $TRUMP rises, the more liquidity is pulled away from altcoins. 📉
Regulatory perception: Cryptocurrencies might appear unfavorable in Congress, potentially making it harder for Trump to pass supportive legislation.
Meme token proliferation: This launch may inspire more celebrities to release their own tokens, increasing market dispersion while also drawing attention and new users.
Accelerated cycles: Volatility tends to spike ahead of significant market climaxes.
Risk of a market peak: The likelihood of hitting a near-term market top has risen compared to 1-2 weeks ago.
Bearish for $ETH: Ethereum could face specific challenges in this scenario.

⏳ What’s Next?
We’ll learn more in the next 1-2 days, either from Trump’s upcoming speech or from the first decisions he makes in the initial days of his presidency. Expect significant updates and potential market reactions soon! 🕒✨
Key takeaway: Stay cautious but alert, as this is a pivotal moment for the crypto industry! 💡

Every single time, fools are baited with a variety of "miracles" that convince them to believe their negative-EV bet will somehow work out this time. For example:
- 😄 This revolutionary technology will change the world!
- 😄 John turned $100,000 into a billion—here’s a real-life success story!
- 😄 It’s a mutual aid fund, where "everyone gets paid!"
- 😄 The deal is endorsed by the FSB and the FBI!
- 😄 Even Elon Musk is on board**—check out his tweet!
- 😄 Becoming a **crypto expert is so easy—anyone can do it!
- 😄 It’s the President’s coin!! Trump himself approved it!
- 😄 You’re smarter, faster, and more deserving than others! (That’s just your hormones talking—they’re usually helpful, but not when probabilities are involved).
And the list goes on.
These "miracles" exist to prevent fools from calculating their odds or advantages. Instead, they’re designed to prey on greed, envy, and ignorance. The goal is simple: to make fools believe in a fairy tale instead of mathematics.
Fools’ money is up for grabs—this is just human nature. Dreamers will keep dreaming because rational decisions are hard to make and often feel depressing.
Governments regulate the "fleecing of fools" in some areas, while in others, they actively participate in stripping fools of their excess funds. This is true for every country—governments are made up of people too.
In some ways, this is even a blessing. Evolution rewards those with basic 10th-grade math skills, giving them the opportunity to accumulate wealth and ensure that humanity continues to evolve. 💡