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Happy New Year, brothers!
Always remember that 2024 and 2025 will be a super bull market
The historical opportunity for ordinary people to transcend class must be fully stocked
Hold on until I let you sell.
#内容挖矿
Always remember that 2024 and 2025 will be a super bull market
The historical opportunity for ordinary people to transcend class must be fully stocked
Hold on until I let you sell.
#内容挖矿
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Buy Point Confirmation!
In March, pressure will again be placed on the United States to raise the debt ceiling. Currently, nearly 1/4 of the Beautiful Country's fiscal revenue is being used to pay interest on over 36 trillion dollars of U.S. debt. This is akin to you using 1/4 of your monthly salary just to pay the interest on your mortgage, and only paying the interest at that. If you consider the principal, then it is certainly unaffordable; after all, it was high-interest loans to begin with, and now they are even raising the interest rates on existing loans. How can you cope with that?
Today's Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that they are considering slowing down or pausing the balance sheet reduction, as alleviating fiscal pressure and preventing liquidity crises are the Fed's main concerns. After all, it's much easier to play with the inflation figures and fool the public.
……
This morning at 8 on X, it was mentioned that the multi-currency resonance 1D buy point has been confirmed. No need for further words; just hold your positions on the daily level and wait for the rise.
There is a possibility of a 9-segment upgrade at #BTC on the 4-hour level. Currently, we are on the 8th move. Short-term speculation suggests waiting for the completion of the 9th move downwards before entering, which may lead to a major upward wave.
That's it.
20250220 by CharlesK7
#BTC走势分析
In March, pressure will again be placed on the United States to raise the debt ceiling. Currently, nearly 1/4 of the Beautiful Country's fiscal revenue is being used to pay interest on over 36 trillion dollars of U.S. debt. This is akin to you using 1/4 of your monthly salary just to pay the interest on your mortgage, and only paying the interest at that. If you consider the principal, then it is certainly unaffordable; after all, it was high-interest loans to begin with, and now they are even raising the interest rates on existing loans. How can you cope with that?
Today's Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that they are considering slowing down or pausing the balance sheet reduction, as alleviating fiscal pressure and preventing liquidity crises are the Fed's main concerns. After all, it's much easier to play with the inflation figures and fool the public.
……
This morning at 8 on X, it was mentioned that the multi-currency resonance 1D buy point has been confirmed. No need for further words; just hold your positions on the daily level and wait for the rise.
There is a possibility of a 9-segment upgrade at #BTC on the 4-hour level. Currently, we are on the 8th move. Short-term speculation suggests waiting for the completion of the 9th move downwards before entering, which may lead to a major upward wave.
That's it.
20250220 by CharlesK7
#BTC走势分析
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Reversal is imminent!
Today at 8 AM, BTC, TOTAL, OTHERS
simultaneously showed daily-level buy signal alerts
along with a daily-level sell signal alert for USDT.D
If tomorrow's signals are confirmed,
the multi-day downtrend will be ended, and the market will reverse from here.
That's all. #BTC走势分析
20250219 by CharlesK7
Today at 8 AM, BTC, TOTAL, OTHERS
simultaneously showed daily-level buy signal alerts
along with a daily-level sell signal alert for USDT.D
If tomorrow's signals are confirmed,
the multi-day downtrend will be ended, and the market will reverse from here.
That's all. #BTC走势分析
20250219 by CharlesK7
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The businessman's intimidation!
1. The US court agreed to suspend the legal dispute between Binance and the SEC until April, and both parties must submit reports before April 14.
After the change of government in the United States, the SEC leadership has adjusted its regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies, shifting from "comprehensive enforcement" to exploring clearer rules. This suspension is not only a buffer period for Binance and the SEC to negotiate, but also a landmark event in the shift in U.S. crypto regulation. If the working group successfully formulates new regulations, it may provide the industry with a clearer compliance path.
Similar cases include Ripple, Coinbase, and enhanced ETFs, all of which are waiting to be advanced after the new SEC chairman takes office. If all goes well, a series of chain reactions in the future will bring continued confidence to the market.
After the change of government in the United States, the SEC leadership has adjusted its regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies, shifting from "comprehensive enforcement" to exploring clearer rules. This suspension is not only a buffer period for Binance and the SEC to negotiate, but also a landmark event in the shift in U.S. crypto regulation. If the working group successfully formulates new regulations, it may provide the industry with a clearer compliance path.
Similar cases include Ripple, Coinbase, and enhanced ETFs, all of which are waiting to be advanced after the new SEC chairman takes office. If all goes well, a series of chain reactions in the future will bring continued confidence to the market.
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No more interest rate cuts this year?
Yesterday, the US January CPI exceeded expectations across the board, resulting in the expectation of a rate cut being postponed from June to September. Currently, there is only one expected rate cut for the whole year. There is still one CPI data and one non-farm data before the next FOMC. If the inflation data continues to deteriorate and the employment data is hot, the expectation of no rate cut for the whole year will emerge.
Anticipated transactions always come before certainty, and current expectations do not represent future certainty. They are just about pricing in a price that corresponds to current expectations.
The recent SEC lawsuit against Coinbase is worthy of attention and will reveal its position on such securities law disputes. February 14 is the deadline for the SEC to respond to Coinbase's appeal request.
Anticipated transactions always come before certainty, and current expectations do not represent future certainty. They are just about pricing in a price that corresponds to current expectations.
The recent SEC lawsuit against Coinbase is worthy of attention and will reveal its position on such securities law disputes. February 14 is the deadline for the SEC to respond to Coinbase's appeal request.
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Judgment!
After more than two years, FTX will finally start repaying $16 billion to creditors on February 18, 2025. In the first phase, it will repay users whose claims are less than $50,000, totaling $6.5-7 billion. The payment will be based on the prices in November 2022. Except for stablecoins, other currencies are basically the lowest prices in the last bear market.
“FTX has two very good products that have no rivals so far. One is that users only need one account to use USDT to trade cryptocurrencies, US stocks, oil, gold and other assets. This feature was regarded as a breakthrough in the industry at the time, which could attract more traditional financial users and funds to participate. Of course, this concept has a new name today, and people call it RWA.
“FTX has two very good products that have no rivals so far. One is that users only need one account to use USDT to trade cryptocurrencies, US stocks, oil, gold and other assets. This feature was regarded as a breakthrough in the industry at the time, which could attract more traditional financial users and funds to participate. Of course, this concept has a new name today, and people call it RWA.
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The storm is coming!
For the first time, Hong Kong investment immigration recognizes $BTC and $ETH as proof of assets.
The Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to treat crypto assets as financial products similar to securities, implement tax cuts and approve ETFs. The chairman of the Korea Exchange once again called for the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs to boost the market.
"Japan previously had a clear ban on Bitcoin spot ETFs, and cryptocurrency trading will be taxed up to 55%. The policy is in a tightening state. Koreans are crazy about playing with cryptocurrencies, and their trading volume ranks third in the world, far exceeding the local stock market trading volume in recent years. The two major developed countries in Asia have recently followed the pace of Europe and the United States to promote cryptocurrency reforms at the national level. From the perspective of global geo-financial fields, it seems that it has just begun."
The Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to treat crypto assets as financial products similar to securities, implement tax cuts and approve ETFs. The chairman of the Korea Exchange once again called for the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs to boost the market.
"Japan previously had a clear ban on Bitcoin spot ETFs, and cryptocurrency trading will be taxed up to 55%. The policy is in a tightening state. Koreans are crazy about playing with cryptocurrencies, and their trading volume ranks third in the world, far exceeding the local stock market trading volume in recent years. The two major developed countries in Asia have recently followed the pace of Europe and the United States to promote cryptocurrency reforms at the national level. From the perspective of global geo-financial fields, it seems that it has just begun."
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比特币将在10年内归零？
今日恐慌与贪婪指数降至44，等级由中性转为恐慌。
据 The Block 报道，美 SEC 正在考虑一项提议，改变贝莱德的现货比特币交易所交易基金，以允许实物赎回。在周四发布的一份承认该提议的文件中，SEC 要求在文件在《联邦公报》上公布后的 21 天内提交评论。该文件称，该机构随后可以决定批准、否决或「启动诉讼程序」。根据 19b-4 表格文件，纳斯达克上个月代表贝莱德发布了一份修订后的规则文件，允许对 iShares 比特币信托进行赎回和实物创建。
“几个好处：
1.实物创建和赎回全程以$BTC 作为计价单位，用户赎回ETF份额时，资管公司无需即时清算比特币持仓，避免因大规模赎回引发的市场波动；
2.在税务方面，投资者不用承担资本利得税风险，因为赎回的是实物比特币而非美元；
3.降低了做市商的操作成本，能够吸引更多机构资金流入，推动比特币与传统金融体系更深融合。”
美众议院两党决议呼吁制定明确的加密货币和区块链法规；
据 Bitcoin Magazine 披露，犹他州投资比特币的立法已获众议院通过，现交由参议院审议；
德国选择党主张放宽对比特币、钱包和交易的监管；
捷克总统正式签署
据 The Block 报道，美 SEC 正在考虑一项提议，改变贝莱德的现货比特币交易所交易基金，以允许实物赎回。在周四发布的一份承认该提议的文件中，SEC 要求在文件在《联邦公报》上公布后的 21 天内提交评论。该文件称，该机构随后可以决定批准、否决或「启动诉讼程序」。根据 19b-4 表格文件，纳斯达克上个月代表贝莱德发布了一份修订后的规则文件，允许对 iShares 比特币信托进行赎回和实物创建。
“几个好处：
1.实物创建和赎回全程以$BTC 作为计价单位，用户赎回ETF份额时，资管公司无需即时清算比特币持仓，避免因大规模赎回引发的市场波动；
2.在税务方面，投资者不用承担资本利得税风险，因为赎回的是实物比特币而非美元；
3.降低了做市商的操作成本，能够吸引更多机构资金流入，推动比特币与传统金融体系更深融合。”
美众议院两党决议呼吁制定明确的加密货币和区块链法规；
据 Bitcoin Magazine 披露，犹他州投资比特币的立法已获众议院通过，现交由参议院审议；
德国选择党主张放宽对比特币、钱包和交易的监管；
捷克总统正式签署
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Be patient!
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 49 today (from 54 yesterday), and the rating remains neutral.
According to Barron's: The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) plans to revise banking guidelines to allow banks to conduct certain crypto businesses without prior regulatory approval.
"This means that banks can custody customers' cryptocurrencies and they will be insured by the FDIC, which is positive in promoting the connection between US banks and cryptocurrencies."
Naoki Tamura, the "hawkish king" of the Bank of Japan: Interest rates must be raised to a level that is nominally considered neutral, at least around 1%.
According to Barron's: The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) plans to revise banking guidelines to allow banks to conduct certain crypto businesses without prior regulatory approval.
"This means that banks can custody customers' cryptocurrencies and they will be insured by the FDIC, which is positive in promoting the connection between US banks and cryptocurrencies."
Naoki Tamura, the "hawkish king" of the Bank of Japan: Interest rates must be raised to a level that is nominally considered neutral, at least around 1%.
See original
Gossip!
A Bitcoin super whale that only consumes and does not spit out, MicroStrategy, after being included in the Nasdaq 100, ended its consecutive 12 weeks of purchases. The market speculates that it is constrained by related rules and regulations and faces a massive tax bill of 19 billion USD on unrealized Bitcoin gains, requiring financial planning to avoid taxes.
Looking at the latest data, as of now, MicroStrategy has held 471,107 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately 30.4 billion USD and a total holding value of about 46.2 billion USD, with an average purchase price of around 64,511 USD, which is not inferior to BlackRock's total holding value of 57.7 billion USD.
Looking at the latest data, as of now, MicroStrategy has held 471,107 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately 30.4 billion USD and a total holding value of about 46.2 billion USD, with an average purchase price of around 64,511 USD, which is not inferior to BlackRock's total holding value of 57.7 billion USD.
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Polar Reversal!
Last night, after the U.S. stock market opened, two good pieces of news arrived: 1. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada agreed to postpone the implementation of increased tariffs for one month, 2. The White House's cryptocurrency supervisor is about to hold a press conference on the U.S. government's leadership plan in the digital asset field.
The market's concerns over stagflation triggered by the trade war have temporarily eased, and the impact of such policies is expected to fluctuate until the market fully digests them. The progress of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve has not met market expectations, but it is still moving forward.
Trump has instructed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to submit a new sovereign wealth fund plan for the U.S. within 90 days, and it is currently unknown whether it will involve Bitcoin.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for January has entered the expansion zone for the first time since October 2022, with the final value of January's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI recorded at 51.2, marking the first rebound above 50.0 in seven months.
Goolsbee: The Federal Reserve needs to be more cautious about interest rate cuts; Bostic: Prepared to wait for a while before cutting rates; the premise for another rate cut is to hope to see housing inflation begin to slow, and it is expected that information related to tariff-related inflation will not be available before the March FOMC monetary policy meeting.
Recently, both Powell and various regional presidents have spoken relatively hawkishly, managing expectations for maintaining the current interest rate in March while leaving room for rate cuts to begin in May-June. As of now, the probability of not cutting rates in March is 86.5%, and in June it is 39.2%. The benefit of fully communicating with the market is that the market won't be startled when the policy is implemented; the extent of pricing in is the market's trend.
...
From a technical perspective, BTC rebounded 12.35% yesterday after being oversold, closing with a large lower shadow line, and was blocked near the resonance point of ICT 1D and 4h FVG around 10.2k. The trend is relatively optimistic and resembles last year's 805, with a high probability of bottoming near 91k. Pulling back several 4h FVG and forming a 4h or daily level central pivot would be a standard breakout trend.
After the daily close at 8 this morning, the daily level "CharlesK7 Trend" indicator still indicates a bullish trend.
The trend type in February needs time to fully digest, which is not friendly to trend players; it remains as mentioned yesterday: "short-term speculation is okay, but the overall pattern should not be too large."
20250204 by CharlesK7
#加密市场反弹
Last night, after the U.S. stock market opened, two good pieces of news arrived: 1. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada agreed to postpone the implementation of increased tariffs for one month, 2. The White House's cryptocurrency supervisor is about to hold a press conference on the U.S. government's leadership plan in the digital asset field.
The market's concerns over stagflation triggered by the trade war have temporarily eased, and the impact of such policies is expected to fluctuate until the market fully digests them. The progress of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve has not met market expectations, but it is still moving forward.
Trump has instructed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to submit a new sovereign wealth fund plan for the U.S. within 90 days, and it is currently unknown whether it will involve Bitcoin.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for January has entered the expansion zone for the first time since October 2022, with the final value of January's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI recorded at 51.2, marking the first rebound above 50.0 in seven months.
Goolsbee: The Federal Reserve needs to be more cautious about interest rate cuts; Bostic: Prepared to wait for a while before cutting rates; the premise for another rate cut is to hope to see housing inflation begin to slow, and it is expected that information related to tariff-related inflation will not be available before the March FOMC monetary policy meeting.
Recently, both Powell and various regional presidents have spoken relatively hawkishly, managing expectations for maintaining the current interest rate in March while leaving room for rate cuts to begin in May-June. As of now, the probability of not cutting rates in March is 86.5%, and in June it is 39.2%. The benefit of fully communicating with the market is that the market won't be startled when the policy is implemented; the extent of pricing in is the market's trend.
...
From a technical perspective, BTC rebounded 12.35% yesterday after being oversold, closing with a large lower shadow line, and was blocked near the resonance point of ICT 1D and 4h FVG around 10.2k. The trend is relatively optimistic and resembles last year's 805, with a high probability of bottoming near 91k. Pulling back several 4h FVG and forming a 4h or daily level central pivot would be a standard breakout trend.
After the daily close at 8 this morning, the daily level "CharlesK7 Trend" indicator still indicates a bullish trend.
The trend type in February needs time to fully digest, which is not friendly to trend players; it remains as mentioned yesterday: "short-term speculation is okay, but the overall pattern should not be too large."
20250204 by CharlesK7
#加密市场反弹
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Trade war, paid for by the cryptocurrency community!
DeepSeek attacked Wall Street first, and Trump imposed tariffs on many countries later. Affected by these news, Bitcoin fell by 16.75% during the Spring Festival. The holiday red envelopes were not received, and more than 700,000 people were killed.
...
Technically, the weekly level of "CharlesK7 sell point" warning appeared on January 27, and the sell point signal was confirmed on February 3.
The 4-hour level trend indicator "CharlesK7 Trend" fell below 10.22k at 16:00 on February 1 and turned into a bearish trend.
The daily level is still bullish as of now (need to be confirmed at 8 am tomorrow).
It fell below the low of 97.777k on January 27, and the daily level has seen the second sell of the entanglement theory, and the downward line segment has been established.
…
Today, BTC temporarily stopped falling near the resonance support of ICT 1D OB and 4h FVG. In summary, it is expected that there is a high probability of wide fluctuations in the near future, and short-term speculation is still possible.
February 3, 2025 by CharlesK7
#加密市场回调
DeepSeek attacked Wall Street first, and Trump imposed tariffs on many countries later. Affected by these news, Bitcoin fell by 16.75% during the Spring Festival. The holiday red envelopes were not received, and more than 700,000 people were killed.
...
Technically, the weekly level of "CharlesK7 sell point" warning appeared on January 27, and the sell point signal was confirmed on February 3.
The 4-hour level trend indicator "CharlesK7 Trend" fell below 10.22k at 16:00 on February 1 and turned into a bearish trend.
The daily level is still bullish as of now (need to be confirmed at 8 am tomorrow).
It fell below the low of 97.777k on January 27, and the daily level has seen the second sell of the entanglement theory, and the downward line segment has been established.
…
Today, BTC temporarily stopped falling near the resonance support of ICT 1D OB and 4h FVG. In summary, it is expected that there is a high probability of wide fluctuations in the near future, and short-term speculation is still possible.
February 3, 2025 by CharlesK7
#加密市场回调
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Too many assets and data dominated by the United States are linked to it. As well as the continuous intervention of strategic funds, the trend of de-retailing is inevitable in the future of the coin circle. The characteristics of retail investors are the ultimate pursuit of crossing classes with the fastest speed and the smallest amount of money. The attractiveness of this circle in the future will inevitably be greatly reduced. Non-violent and non-unilateral trends are hellish for some old people in the coin circle. Let alone newcomers.
#美国7月非农就业增长放缓 $BTC
#美国7月非农就业增长放缓 $BTC
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Employment data is abnormally good
So good that recession expectations are rekindled
This data combination is undoubtedly bad for risky assets
Good for safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin, a young emerging asset, has experienced two "recessions"
The first time was during the epidemic when it plummeted as the number one risk asset
The second time was last year when the wave of bank failures in the United States turned into a surge in safe-haven assets
What the market will choose this time, no one knows.
#BTC☀ #非农数据
So good that recession expectations are rekindled
This data combination is undoubtedly bad for risky assets
Good for safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin, a young emerging asset, has experienced two "recessions"
The first time was during the epidemic when it plummeted as the number one risk asset
The second time was last year when the wave of bank failures in the United States turned into a surge in safe-haven assets
What the market will choose this time, no one knows.
#BTC☀ #非农数据
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Worry about those who short $BTC 🤯
$BTC 如果仅从日线级别看（不考虑4h及以下级别
当前的结构是日线级别下降中枢后的三卖延伸段
类比去年7-9月的走势类型
同样是三卖后出现买点信号，走势逆转。
#IBIT 在7月8日出现买点信号后
昨日收阳，日线级别买点确认
IBIT走势极为标准，买卖点信号准确率100%。
#德国政府转移比特币 #BTC下跌分析
当前的结构是日线级别下降中枢后的三卖延伸段
类比去年7-9月的走势类型
同样是三卖后出现买点信号，走势逆转。
#IBIT 在7月8日出现买点信号后
昨日收阳，日线级别买点确认
IBIT走势极为标准，买卖点信号准确率100%。
#德国政府转移比特币 #BTC下跌分析
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如图：$BTC 短线在61.1k附近有压力（4h FVG、12h SuperTrend、1D Vegas共振，预计不会一次性突破。
如图中白框
$BTC 4h级别有形成潜在中枢的走势了
短线在30min/2h订单块受阻后
下方支撑在30min FVG/56.8k和4h OB/55.8k区间
是潜在的4h级别中枢下沿和30min背驰段的位置
晚间有CPI公布，大概率是个好坏参半的数据
中长线如昨日所讲
日线级别买点信号确定后，建仓的机会就已然到来。
#美国CPI数据即将公布
$BTC 4h级别有形成潜在中枢的走势了
短线在30min/2h订单块受阻后
下方支撑在30min FVG/56.8k和4h OB/55.8k区间
是潜在的4h级别中枢下沿和30min背驰段的位置
晚间有CPI公布，大概率是个好坏参半的数据
中长线如昨日所讲
日线级别买点信号确定后，建仓的机会就已然到来。
#美国CPI数据即将公布
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AltcoinSeasonComing
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Bitcoin dominance rate (BTCD) has declined by almost 2% over the past week, a signal traders often interpret as the beginning of capital rotation into altcoins.
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💬 Is altcoin season coming soon? Which tokens are on your radar—and how will you be positioning for the shift?
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