Polar Reversal!
Last night, after the U.S. stock market opened, two good pieces of news arrived: 1. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada agreed to postpone the implementation of increased tariffs for one month, 2. The White House's cryptocurrency supervisor is about to hold a press conference on the U.S. government's leadership plan in the digital asset field.
The market's concerns over stagflation triggered by the trade war have temporarily eased, and the impact of such policies is expected to fluctuate until the market fully digests them. The progress of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve has not met market expectations, but it is still moving forward.
Trump has instructed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to submit a new sovereign wealth fund plan for the U.S. within 90 days, and it is currently unknown whether it will involve Bitcoin.
The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for January has entered the expansion zone for the first time since October 2022, with the final value of January's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI recorded at 51.2, marking the first rebound above 50.0 in seven months.
Goolsbee: The Federal Reserve needs to be more cautious about interest rate cuts; Bostic: Prepared to wait for a while before cutting rates; the premise for another rate cut is to hope to see housing inflation begin to slow, and it is expected that information related to tariff-related inflation will not be available before the March FOMC monetary policy meeting.
Recently, both Powell and various regional presidents have spoken relatively hawkishly, managing expectations for maintaining the current interest rate in March while leaving room for rate cuts to begin in May-June. As of now, the probability of not cutting rates in March is 86.5%, and in June it is 39.2%. The benefit of fully communicating with the market is that the market won't be startled when the policy is implemented; the extent of pricing in is the market's trend.
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From a technical perspective, BTC rebounded 12.35% yesterday after being oversold, closing with a large lower shadow line, and was blocked near the resonance point of ICT 1D and 4h FVG around 10.2k. The trend is relatively optimistic and resembles last year's 805, with a high probability of bottoming near 91k. Pulling back several 4h FVG and forming a 4h or daily level central pivot would be a standard breakout trend.
After the daily close at 8 this morning, the daily level "CharlesK7 Trend" indicator still indicates a bullish trend.
The trend type in February needs time to fully digest, which is not friendly to trend players; it remains as mentioned yesterday: "short-term speculation is okay, but the overall pattern should not be too large."
20250204 by CharlesK7
