Yesterday, the US January CPI exceeded expectations across the board, resulting in the expectation of a rate cut being postponed from June to September. Currently, there is only one expected rate cut for the whole year. There is still one CPI data and one non-farm data before the next FOMC. If the inflation data continues to deteriorate and the employment data is hot, the expectation of no rate cut for the whole year will emerge.

Anticipated transactions always come before certainty, and current expectations do not represent future certainty. They are just about pricing in a price that corresponds to current expectations.

The recent SEC lawsuit against Coinbase is worthy of attention and will reveal its position on such securities law disputes. February 14 is the deadline for the SEC to respond to Coinbase's appeal request.

Under the new regulatory approach, how the SEC responds will represent the future regulatory scale:

1. Opposes Coinbase's appeal request, meaning the new SEC still plans to maintain caution regarding cryptocurrencies like Gensler did;

2. Does not oppose Coinbase's appeal request, indicating that the new SEC hopes to address how securities law applies to cryptocurrencies;

3. Requests to extend the deadline;

4. Decides not to continue and abandons this case.

Currently, the probabilities for 2 and 4 are relatively high. Under the influence of Trump's new policies, the SEC is likely to abandon the Coinbase lawsuit or reach some kind of agreement, which will bring long-term benefits to the cryptocurrency sector in terms of regulation.

……

The technical highs and lows are getting lower, and the trend has become less optimistic.

$BTC The daily level's rebound volume yesterday was average. From the perspective of Chande theory, the current daily level is in the formation of the third descending segment, where the third point can either form at the low on February 3 or continue to break the previous low to find an endpoint. The blue dashed line shown in the figure represents the latter's segment trend, which may form a daily level segment's upward midpoint after completion.

The 4-hour trend increasingly resembles the pessimistic expected trend drawn a few days ago. Here, I personally suggest to reduce leverage and be cautiously optimistic.

That's it.

20250213 by CharlesK7 #CPI数据来袭