Cycle Trading

Event: Bit Deer (Btdr.US) released its fourth quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2024. The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $69 million, a 40% decrease from $114.8 million in the same period of 2023. Among this, the self-operated business revenue was $41.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. Gross profit was $5.1 million, with a gross margin of 7.4%, significantly down from $27 million and 23.5% in the same period of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.8 million, compared to positive $3.8 million in the same period of 2023. The net loss was $531.9 million, mainly due to non-cash derivative instrument losses of $479.8 million, including a loss of $55.8 million from Tether warrants and a loss of $413.7 million from convertible bonds.

Author: Joy Lou
Event: Canggu (Cang.us) announced three important announcements consecutively in November, acquiring Bitmain's 32Eh/s operating cryptocurrency mining machines for $256 million; planning to issue $144 million in stocks for the subsequent acquisition of 18Eh/s operating cryptocurrency mining machines; and producing 393 Bitcoins in November.
Comment:
1. Canggu Phase I has acquired 32Eh/s of operating cryptocurrency mining machines, with a shutdown price of about $70,000 per coin (including Bitmain's hosting and operating costs). The project is mainly distributed across five countries, including the United States, the Middle East, and Africa. The mining machines primarily use Bitmain's flagship S19 miners, which currently have a depreciation period of about 4 years remaining.

Author: Joy Lou

BitDeer (stock code BTDR in the US) updated its operating figures for November. The market-focused A2 mining machine (Sealminer A2) began mass production, with the first batch of 30,000 units sold to the outside world.
The first growth curve: self-developed chips, sales of mining machines, and self-operated mining farms.
The ability to develop chips on its own has always been the core competitiveness of mining machine manufacturers. Xiaolu successfully completed the production of A2 mining machine chips and A3 mining machine chips in the past six months.

Figure 1: BitDeer Technology Roadmap

Source: BitDeer official website

Figure 2: BitDeer main mining machine parameter prediction

Source: Model forecasts, company guidance

Author: Cycle Capital, Lisa
Since the "924" new policy, China's stock market has experienced an epic surge. The policies of the three financial ministries and the Central Political Bureau meeting boosted market sentiment beyond expectations, and the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets ushered in a strong rebound, leading the global market. However, after the National Day, the market turned to decline under the generally optimistic expectations. Is this round of market a flash in the pan or has the bottom been reached? This article will try to make a judgment from the perspective of analyzing the domestic economic fundamentals, policies and the overall valuation level of the stock market.
1. Fundamentals
Overall, the domestic fundamentals are still weak, with some marginal signs of improvement, but no clear turning point. During the National Day holiday, the consumption boom improved both year-on-year and month-on-month, but it has not yet been reflected in some major economic indicators. In the next few quarters, China's growth may show a trend of mild recovery under the policy boost.

1. The easing cycle started again after a four-year hiatus
At 2:00 am on September 19th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, and the target range of the federal funds rate was reduced from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.0%, and a new round of interest rate cuts officially began. The 50bp interest rate cut was in line with the expectations of CME interest rate futures, but exceeded the forecasts of many Wall Street investment banks. Historically, the first 50bp interest rate cut has only occurred in economic or market emergencies, such as the technology bubble in January 2001, the financial crisis in September 2007, and the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Since a 50bp interest rate cut will make the market more worried about an economic "recession", Powell emphasized in his speech that he did not see any signs of recession, and as always used this method to hedge the market's recession concerns.

Introduction:
The Open Netwotk (TON) was originally named Telegram Open Network. It was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After being accused by the SEC of unregistered securities issuance during the ICO era, the Telegram team paid a fine to reach a settlement and abandoned the project, which was continued to be developed and operated by the community TON Foundation. Although it has been separated from Telegram in name, the actual connection between the two is still direct. TON has always been the only public chain officially supported by Telegram and continues to be deeply integrated with Telegram. TON will continue to benefit from Telegram's huge user base and traffic entrance. Telegram will build a decentralized digital ecosystem with freedom and privacy by supporting TON.

Market Overview
Since the third quarter, the assets that performed better: RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and XAUUSD (gold price) and SPF (financial stocks) and US bonds, the assets that performed worse: Ethereum, crude oil, US dollars. The almost flat pie, Nasdaq 100.

For US stocks, the current market is still in a bull market, and the main trend is still upward. However, the trading environment will lack performance themes in the last few months of the year, and the upside and downside of the market will be limited. The market continues to revise down Q3 earnings expectations:

The valuation has recently adjusted back, but it rebounded quickly, and the PE of 21 times is still much higher than the 5-year average:

Total stablecoins
Despite the recent sluggish market trading and low sentiment, the total amount of stablecoins on the exchange is still slowly accumulating, and has now reached the highest level since this cycle, at approximately US$168 billion.

BTC.D hits new high, touching daily pressure level
BTC.D has reached a new high since this round of market, touching the daily pressure level, and may experience a daily level correction. If BTC can maintain a relatively mild shock, the cottage has the opportunity to outperform BTC on a daily level.

CME Open Positions
CME BTC short position liquidation has turned around. Overall, the liquidation is still lower than expected. Arbitrage funds will gradually withdraw after the interest rate cut.

The most volatile week of 2019
Although U.S. stocks were basically flat for the week, the market was a real roller coaster.
Panic selling on Monday, retaliatory rebound on Tuesday, technical selling on Wednesday caused the market to fall again, and the decline in the number of first-time unemployment claims on Thursday, which had a general influence, triggered the market's impulse to buy the bottom, although this data is not worth being overly excited about because the trend of increasing unemployment claims is obvious. The market continued to rebound on Friday, but the amplitude slowed down.
Over the past week, the stock market and the crypto market have been very closely linked. In the media, the two core themes were the U.S. recession and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, but I personally think these are two "false propositions." In fact, the real panic was very short-lived, and the usual situation of selling everything, including bonds and gold, when a crisis breaks out did not occur.

Market Overview

In the past two weeks, digital assets (especially Bitcoin) have performed well. The second largest digital currency Ethereum has given up its previous gains after the ETF was launched, which is similar to the trend after the BTC ETF was launched.

As we reminded at the meeting two weeks ago, the market showed a clear style switch: large-to-small, cyclical-to-defensive. In the US stock market, small-cap stocks withstood the pressure of the large market. RUT rose 3.3% against the trend. Traditional large-cap stocks performed steadily. The Dow Jones 30 rose 1%, and the financial stock index SPF rose 1%. The utilities and healthcare industries were also relatively strong (Goldman Sachs continued to be optimistic about the financial sector, with more upside potential than downside). Technology stocks performed the worst, with the NYFANG+ (top ten technology stocks) index plummeting 8%, the Nasdaq 100 plummeting 6.8%, and the SPX, which has a slightly lower technology content, falling 3%.

Author: Cycle Capital
Review of hot market topics
[Recent macroeconomic background tailwind]
Inflation is cooling down across the board: The last two months have shown a clear downward trend. The US CPI turned negative for the first time in four years in June, and the core year-on-year growth rate hit a three-year low. According to GS forecasts, both will be in a downward channel in the next two years. Housing inflation is slowing down at an accelerated pace.
Employment market: The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has increased by about 10% since April, indicating that the employment market has weakened slightly, but overall it remains in a relatively balanced and stable state.
Economic Surprise Index: It has been at a low point in the past two months, indicating that recent economic data are often lower than expected.

Author: Lisa, LD Capital
I. General Election Overview
On June 28, Beijing time, Biden and Trump held the first debate of the 2024 election. Trump's performance was significantly superior, while Biden's poor performance triggered widespread concerns about his mental competency at his advanced age. . Trump's approval rating surged after the debate. At the same time, Trump also has an overwhelming advantage in swing states, leading in the seven main swing states (North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania).

Project Description:
Lista DAO is an open source liquidity protocol for earning yield on collateralized crypto assets and borrowing their decentralized stablecoin lisusD (also known as “Destablecoin”).
It utilizes a dual token model (lisUsD and LISTA) and extends the MakerDAO model to provide a decentralized, unbiased, collateral-backed stablecoin while leveraging decentralized liquidity assets.
Created by DeFi and smart contract experts, ListaDAO aims to position lisuSD as a leading stablecoin by integrating proof-of-stake rewards and yield assets, with a focus on decentralization, capital efficiency, and broader blockchain adoption.

Author: Cycle Capital
Since the start of the US election, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. After the Trump campaign team publicly supported cryptocurrency donations, TRUMP was the main representative, with a market value of $775 million at its peak. Due to Biden's more conservative attitude towards crypto, the market attention to his related tokens is relatively low. After Trump was convicted of the hush money case, the price of Trump-related tokens fell, while Biden-related meme tokens rose. During the election, who will become the president of the United States and public statements on crypto attitudes affect the price trend of related tokens.

<br /><br />
Author: Alfred @GametoRich, Cycle Capital
1. What is a Rune?
At the beginning of 2023, the BRC-20 standard proposed based on the Ordinals protocol set off a wave of construction and speculation around BTC assets, and promoted the hot attention and capital influx of BTC second-layer, Defi and other ecological infrastructure, which played a positive role in the long-term development of the BTC ecosystem. However, the hype of BRC-20 also brought about Bitcoin network congestion and redundant data. In response to this, Casey Rodarmor, the creator of the Ordinals protocol, proposed the Runes protocol in a blog in September 2023, which will build a replaceable token protocol based on BTC UTXO, which is the "Runes Protocol".

Project Description:
Notcoin is a Telegram-based game where players earn in-game currency by clicking on the "coins" in the picture.
The game was developed by Sasha Plotvinov, the founder of Open Builders. It is not a well-known AAA game. It is a small game similar to some social applications of Web2.
Its highlight is that it is backed by the $Ton public chain (market value has long been in the top 20). Notcoin currently has more than 30 million participants, with an average daily active user base of 5 million. In addition, Telegram has more than 900 million monthly active users, with more than 2.5 million new users registering every day.

Project Description:
BounceBit is a Bitcoin re-staking protocol and native BTC re-staking chain, developed as a sister company of Bounce Finance. It adopts a dual-token staking system secured by Bitcoin and BounceBit tokens, introducing a unique combination of DeFi and CeFi yield mechanisms, enabling BTC holders to earn income through native validator staking, the DeFi ecosystem, and the CeFi mirror mechanism.
project financing:
At the end of February 2024, BounceBit completed a $6 million seed round of financing, led by Blockchain Capital and Breyer Capital, with participation from dao 5, CMS Holdings, Bankless Ventures, NGC Ventures, Matrixport Ventures, DeFiance Capital, OKX Ventures and HTX Ventures. Individual investors include EigenLayer Chief Strategy Officer Calvin Liu. Details: https://twitter.com/bounce_bit/status/1762874894520656120

Last week, the global risk asset market rose across the board, with SP500 +0.5%, Nas100 +1%, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 up 4.7% and 0.6% respectively, and Nikkei 225 and Korea Composite Index both up 0.8%. Most of the major government bond yields fell, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell sharply by 17bp to 4.50%. Due to the release of a number of key data and policies, the market's uncertainty about interest rates has temporarily settled. The market's expectations for a possible slowdown in inflation have increased, providing the Federal Reserve with room to cut interest rates, and the market has thus entered a round of valuation repair/oversold rebound.

Things that reassured the market included the lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI, service industry index, dovish signals from FOMC and Powell, Apple and Amazon's 100 billion buybacks and strong earnings, and Hamas and Israel's peace talks mediated by major powers. The only slightly disturbing thing was the ECI labor costs and the Ministry of Finance's quarterly bond issuance that exceeded expectations.

Last week, there were many economic information such as the earnings reports of large companies, GDP data and inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve pays attention to. Investors are faced with a massive influx of information and need to constantly reprice their assets. The market also showed large fluctuations, and the overall N-shaped trend ended up higher. Especially driven by technology stocks (Microsoft and Google's good earnings reports), the stock market has recovered half of the losses in April. After falling 5.4% last week, the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded 4% this week, and the S&P small-cap Russell 2000 rose by more than 2%. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by less than 1%.

This article briefly introduces the projects launched in Binance Launchpool Phase 53#Renzo

Project Description:
Renzo is an Ethereum re-staking protocol based on Eigenlayer. It simplifies the complexity of re-staking on EigenLayer and provides users with a more convenient and liquid way to participate.
Renzo allows users to deposit Ethereum and in the future can use Liquidity Restaking Tokens (LST) to exchange for ezETH, a Liquidity Restaking Token (LRT) that can be used in DeFi applications. In short, Renzo is like a convenient bridge that allows users to interact with the EigenLayer ecosystem more easily.