Criptolouco da Bahia

$USDC USD Coin (USDC):
* Why it is a great option: USDC is widely considered one of the most transparent and regulated stablecoins. It is issued by Circle and Coinbase, and its reserves are regularly audited by independent firms, ensuring that each USDC in circulation is backed by a real US dollar or equivalents of cash and U.S. Treasury securities.
* Advantages: High liquidity, strong institutional backing, transparency, and regulatory compliance. It is a popular choice for investors and companies seeking security and predictability.

#USDC
* Why it's a great option: USDC is widely regarded as one of the most transparent and regulated stablecoins. It is issued by Circle and Coinbase, and its reserves are regularly audited by independent firms, ensuring that each USDC in circulation is backed by a real US dollar or cash and US Treasury equivalents.
* Advantages: High liquidity, strong institutional backing, transparency, and regulatory compliance. It is a popular choice for investors and companies seeking security and predictability.

#MyTradingStyle Strict Risk Management (The Essence of Success):
Position Size: I never allocate more than a small percentage of my total capital to a single trade. The rule "no more than X% of capital at risk" is sacred.
Defined Stop Loss: Each trade has a predefined stop loss. Before entering, I know exactly where I will exit if the market goes against me. This protects capital and eliminates the emotion of decision-making.
Scaled Take Profit: Instead of a single profit target, I aim to realize profits in stages. I sell a portion of the position at intermediate targets to secure gains and leave a portion for greater potential upside.
Diversification: I avoid concentrating all capital in a few assets. I diversify across different sectors of the crypto market to reduce risk.
Reserve Capital: I keep a significant portion of my portfolio in stablecoins (like USDC) to capitalize on opportunities during market downturns or to have immediate liquidity.

#GENIUSActPass The approval of the GENIUS bill by the U.S. Senate is a significant milestone that solidifies the recognition of stablecoins as a legitimate and potentially transformative component of the financial system. By providing a path to regulation, the U.S. is signaling its commitment to innovation while seeking to mitigate risks. The future of finance will undoubtedly include stablecoins as a fundamental pillar for more efficient payments, financial inclusion, and the advancement of the digital economy. The next steps in the House and complementary legislation will be crucial in shaping the definitive operating environment for these digital assets.

#FOMCMeeting Given the current situation, my expectations are for another pause in interest rates.
Reasons for the Pause:

1 Divergence between Political Rhetoric and Economic Data: President Trump's call for rate cuts, although politically motivated to stimulate the economy and perhaps boost the markets ahead of the elections, is not the main factor that the Fed considers. The Federal Reserve operates (in theory) independently, focusing on its dual mandate of maximum employment generation and price stability (inflation).
2 Decreasing but Resilient Inflation: While inflation may be "continuing to decrease", the Fed needs to see sustained and convincing evidence that inflation is consistently on its way to the 2% target before acting. A single reading or a few readings of decline may not be sufficient if the underlying data (such as service inflation, wages) still show resilience. The Fed is averse to cutting too early and having to reverse policy.
3 Robust Labor Market (Likely): If the U.S. labor market remains robust, with low unemployment rates and wage growth, this gives the Fed less urgency to cut rates. A strong labor market can sustain demand and, therefore, inflation.

#VietnamCryptoPolicy What Vietnam has been doing:
* Continuous Regulatory Efforts: Since 2017, Vietnam has been working to regulate cryptocurrencies. In March 2025, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính instructed the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to develop and submit a regulatory plan for cryptocurrencies by the end of March.
* Testing Mechanism (Sandbox): In April 2025, the MOF aimed to establish a transparent legal environment for cryptocurrencies through a legal testing mechanism (sandbox), which would evaluate anti-money laundering (AML) protocols and "Know Your Customer" (KYC). It was also seeking to test a cryptocurrency trading platform.
* Positioning in the Adoption Index: Despite the lack of formal legal recognition, Vietnam has one of the highest cryptocurrency adoption rates globally, ranking fifth in the Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index of 2024. This indicates substantial interest and use among the population, even without a clear legal framework.
* Consideration as "Digital Data": Previously, the Vietnamese government considered incorporating provisions on digital assets under the Digital Technology Industry Law, defining the concept of digital assets as "digital data" created, issued, stored, transferred, and authenticated in an electronic environment.

$BTC The strategy of a company issuing debt (especially zero-coupon bonds, which do not pay periodic interest but are sold at a discount and redeemed at face value) to buy Bitcoin is a direct reflection of the investment thesis that Bitcoin is a superior store of value asset and a hedge against inflation, similar to what Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy has been doing extensively.

#MetaplanetBTCPurchase The strategy of Metaplanet, and other companies that issue debt to accumulate Bitcoin, is undoubtedly a risky bet that amplifies exposure to Bitcoin's volatility, but it is made under the belief that it is a smart hedge against inflation and a long-term strategic move for capital appreciation.
For this strategy to be considered "smart," the company needs to have a very strong conviction in the thesis of Bitcoin as a store of value and a high tolerance for risk.

$BTC The involvement of such a prominent figure as Donald Trump and his company, Trump Media, in the crypto space, especially through substantial investments in Bitcoin and even with the launch of a Bitcoin ETF by Trump Media, lends a level of legitimacy and visibility that few corporate or political entities could offer. For many investors and the general public who are still skeptical or unaware of cryptocurrencies, the association with a recognized brand, even if controversial, can lower the barrier to entry and the fear of the unknown.

#TrumpBTCTreasury A pressure from Trump Media and Donald Trump's involvement in the Bitcoin and crypto market represent a "double-edged sword". On one hand, the endorsement of a high-profile figure and potential regulatory clarity could catalyze greater mainstream adoption, attracting institutional investors and the general public seeking legitimacy and accessibility. On the other hand, this introduces a significant level of political risk, with potential for volatility, conflicts of interest, regulatory scrutiny, and even the polarization of the crypto space itself.
The way these factors unfold will largely depend on the concrete actions of Trump Media, future government policies, and the market's response to these political dynamics. It is a crucial and complex moment for the crypto ecosystem, where politics and digital finance intertwine in unprecedented ways.

$ADA a proposal by Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, to use 140 million ADA (equivalent to US$ 100 million) from the treasury to boost DeFi growth by purchasing native stablecoins BTC and Cardano (USDM, USDA, IUSD).
Analysis of Charles Hoskinson's Proposal
Charles Hoskinson's proposal is undoubtedly a bold and complex move, with the potential for significant impacts on the Cardano ecosystem and the value of ADA.

#CardanoDebate A proposal by Charles Hoskinson is a high-risk, high-reward bet. In the short term, the selling pressure on ADA and governance concerns are understandable. However, if the initiative succeeds in catalyzing explosive and sustainable growth in Cardano's DeFi ecosystem, it could solidify the network's position as a dominant player and ultimately drive the value of ADA in the long term.

$BTC o Israel-Iran conflict tends to affect Bitcoin mainly in two ways:
* In the short term: Generating volatility and price drops due to risk aversion, as BTC is seen as a riskier asset in uncertain scenarios.
* In extreme or long-term scenarios: There may be a debate and possibly an increasing perception of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset (similar to gold) if geopolitical instability deepens and seriously undermines confidence in traditional financial systems. However, the immediate reaction is devaluation.
The key for Bitcoin in this scenario is to observe the next steps of the conflict. An escalation may continue to pressure the price downward, while a de-escalation or signs of containment may allow BTC to recover.

#IsraelIranConflict The Israel-Iran conflict would focus on the following points:
1. Impact on Risk Aversion and Market Volatility:
* Search for Safe Assets: In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to seek out assets considered "safe." Traditionally, this includes gold and government bonds. However, Bitcoin has increasingly been seen by some as a "digital gold," which could lead to an increase in demand in scenarios of escalating conflict.
* Increased Volatility: Armed conflicts generate instability in global financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, which are already inherently volatile, would likely experience even greater fluctuations. News about attacks, sanctions, or peace negotiations could cause abrupt price movements.
* Capital Flight: In regions directly affected by conflicts or with economic instability resulting from them, there may be a flight of capital to digital assets as a way to preserve value and circumvent capital controls.

$BTC O Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase post-halving, with strong institutional support and a macroeconomic environment that, in some aspects, may be favorable (such as controlled inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts). The increasing legitimacy of BTC through ETFs and political support, albeit nascent, are important positive factors.
Despite some short-term volatility and a sentiment of "risk aversion" that may cause occasional pullbacks, the long-term investment thesis for Bitcoin remains robust due to its programmed scarcity, decentralized nature, and growing institutional adoption.
Stay tuned to inflation data, monetary policy decisions from central banks, and capital flows to Bitcoin ETFs. The ability of BTC to remain above important support levels will be crucial in determining its short-term trajectory. In the long run, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" and a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty continues to be a powerful driver.

#TrumpTariffs It is crucial for cryptocurrency investors to closely monitor not only news about fees but also the reactions of central banks, global economic data, and the overall market sentiment. The resilience and continued adoption of blockchain technology will be key factors in determining the role of crypto in an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape. In short, prepare for more turbulence, but also be on the lookout for opportunities that may arise from the disruption of the financial status quo.

$ETH Transformation of Resistance into Support: The level of $2,700 (and now, $2,800) becomes the new psychological and technical support. In any future retracement, it is expected that the price will find active buyers at these levels.
* Validation of the Uptrend: This breakout reinforces the idea that Ethereum is in a strong uptrend. Recent corrections (if any) have been bought, and the momentum is in favor of the buyers.
* Price Targets: With the breakout of $2,700/$2,800, the next levels of resistance (and therefore potential price targets) would be:
* Psychological Levels: $3,000 is the next big round number.

The conversation at the SEC roundtable is a welcome recognition of the importance and complexity of DeFi. The key to effective regulation is not trying to fit a round peg into a square hole, but understanding the new characteristics of code and decentralization. Regulation should be principle-based, technologically neutral, focused on systemic risks and consumer protection at points of interaction with the traditional system, and should encourage compliance through collaboration and clarity, rather than stifling innovation. Accountability should be proportional to the degree of control and intermediation that an entity exerts over a protocol, not just for having written code.

#NasdaqETFUpdate O Nasdaq continues to be a fundamental pillar for those seeking exposure to growth and technological innovation. Its performance is a vital thermometer for the technology sector, but it also requires attention to its volatility. ETFs, in turn, have democratized access to a vast range of strategies and markets, offering diversification, low cost, and liquidity. The rise of cryptocurrency ETFs is a transformative development, further integrating digital assets into the financial mainstream and opening the doors for unprecedented institutional capital flow, but it also brings with it the responsibility of managing the inherent volatility of this market. Both (Nasdaq and ETFs) are indispensable tools in a modern investor's portfolio and should be analyzed in conjunction with the macroeconomic scenario and individual investment objectives.

#MarketRebound Scenario of "Relief Rally": If the recovery occurs with low volume, faces strong resistance at key levels and the momentum indicators show weakness or divergence, then it is more likely to be a relief rally, a breather before a possible continuation of the previous trend (downward or consolidation).
Scenario of "Major Breakout": If there are decisive breakouts of resistances with high volume, confirmation from momentum indicators and bullish candlestick patterns, and the overall market sentiment remains bullish, then we may be witnessing the beginning of a more sustained uptrend.
At the moment, the market is at an interesting inflection point.