Laniakea

After Bitcoin, Ethereum is the digital asset I trust most for long-term holding and value growth. If Bitcoin is “digital gold,” then ETH is the backbone for building the new digital financial system of the future.
1 ETHEREUM – THE BACKBONE OF THE BLOCKCHAIN ECONOMY
Despite competition from other layer 1 blockchains, Ethereum remains the core infrastructure of the digital economy.
Most capital, top developers, and major projects originated on Ethereum and then expanded to other ecosystems.
Any new layer 1 still needs to connect with Ethereum to be sustainable in the long run.
2. DECENTRALIZATION & SECURITY
While Ethereum isn’t as decentralized as Bitcoin, it’s still among the most secure and decentralized layer 1s today.
This makes ETH an ideal foundation for DeFi, RWAs (real-world asset tokenization), CBDCs, and cross-border stablecoins.
3. TRUSTED BY FINANCIAL GIANTS & GOVERNMENTS
Major institutions and governments are actively experimenting and building on Ethereum’s ecosystem.
BlackRock’s CEO has even said Ethereum is the perfect platform for asset tokenization—stocks, bonds, real estate, and more.
4. ETH’S TRUE VALUATION – TOP 10 GLOBAL ASSET POTENTIAL
Right now, ETH is only ranked #25 with a market cap around $445B, but its real potential easily exceeds $1 trillion (top 10 worldwide).
ETH’s growth pattern: bottomed at $100 → then $1,000 → next likely at $4,000, and could reach $10,000 in the next cycle (by 2030).

5. BELIEF, PATIENCE & RISK MANAGEMENT
Even though ETH has surged from $1,300 to nearly $4,000, this is far from its true “top” given its long-term fundamentals.
To ride ETH’s bull wave, you need strong conviction and patience. Remember: not investing is also a risk!
Always manage your risk, don’t FOMO, and this is not financial advice.
P/s: Digital asset investing comes with significant volatility. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully!

$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #MacroAnalysis

Have you ever wondered where Bitcoin has come from over the past 15 years—and how far it might go in the future? For me, Bitcoin’s story is more than just an investment asset; it’s a revolution reshaping global perspectives on value, wealth, and financial freedom. Let’s revisit its journey so far and explore my predictions for its next chapters!
🕰️ 4 Phases That Have Passed:
In 2020, when I first learned about Bitcoin, I recognized its potential to become the foundation for the global financial and economic system—simply because the blockchain technology behind it was designed for that very purpose. Since then, my predictions about Bitcoin’s development have proven remarkably accurate.
Yet, I remain unsatisfied with the present, holding firm in my belief that Bitcoin will soar much further. The world seems to have only just begun to discover its true potential, and this journey is still in its infancy.
🌱 Stage 1 (2009-2013): The Genesis Era – Tech Enthusiasts
Bitcoin emerged in 2009 thanks to Satoshi Nakamoto, becoming a playground for engineers, developers, and cryptography enthusiasts—those bold enough to dream. Who could forget the historic trade of 10,000 BTC for two pizzas? It was a laughable moment that laid the foundation for Bitcoin’s first transactional value.
🌿 Stage 2 (2013-2017): Pioneering Retail Investors
From 2013 onward, Bitcoin captured the attention of retail investors drawn by its high-profit potential. This wave turned many into millionaires and set the stage for the crypto market’s explosive growth, marked by the rise of exchanges like Coinbase and a peak price nearing $20,000 in 2017.
🌳 Stage 3 (2018-2021): The Entry of Companies and Major Investors
The "big players" joined the game: Tesla, MicroStrategy, Grayscale, and global billionaires began accumulating Bitcoin, transforming it into a "digital gold vault" in their portfolios. This era saw the introduction of financial products like futures contracts, driving Bitcoin’s price past $60,000 in 2021.
🌲 Stage 4 (2022-2025 – Ongoing): Global Financial Institutions
Today, giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest are no longer on the sidelines. A pivotal moment came with the U.S. SEC’s approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, unlocking traditional capital flows into crypto. This marks a new era of integration between digital finance and conventional financial systems.

🔮 Predictions for the Next Stages
Bitcoin is poised to enter three critical phases that will redefine the financial landscape:
🏦 Stage 5 (2026-2030): Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds may officially incorporate Bitcoin into their strategic reserves, positioning it as a global investment asset. With current trends, its price could climb to between $500,000 and $1 million.
🤖Stage 6 (2031-2033): AI-Driven Global Financial Systems
Artificial intelligence (AI) will revolutionize global finance, with Bitcoin serving as the foundation for a new digital financial ecosystem. AI could optimize transactions, enhance security, and build an advanced, tech-driven economy.
🌌 Stage 7 (2033 and Beyond): Global Asset Infrastructure
$BTC could become the "operating system" of global finance, measuring and safeguarding the value of all assets. Its worth may become intricately linked to global GDP growth, ushering in a new era of digitized economics.
Bitcoin is far more than a speculative asset—it’s a journey of trust, technology, and the shifting of power from individuals to institutions, from retail to mega-financial structures, and ultimately from humans to AI. I believe we are only at the beginning of this revolution. Where do you stand on this journey?
#bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinCycles #FinancialRevolution

Bitcoin was once a controversial asset, subject to skepticism and even labeled as a ponzi scheme throughout its first decade. However, in just the past few years, Bitcoin has achieved a major turning point: it has been recognized and adopted as a reserve asset by leading organizations worldwide.
Today, hundreds of publicly traded companies across major stock exchanges globally have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The list of the top 100 companies holding the most Bitcoin (see image below) is a clear testament to the expanding institutional acceptance of Bitcoin.
Notably, this list does not include major private companies (such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX), Bitcoin spot ETFs, family offices, or even the reserves held by sovereign nations (like El Salvador, Bhutan, the United States, China, Ukraine, and others).
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is only just beginning, yet Bitcoin’s price has already surpassed the $100,000 mark. If the trend of large companies, organizations, and investment funds continuing to accumulate Bitcoin expands further, the real demand for this asset will keep growing—driving sustainable, long-term price growth.

If you think Bitcoin’s price has already risen too much, or that $100,000 is an all-time high, just look at reality: many major companies and investment funds are still buying millions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin at these prices. Do you really think they are unaware of how fast the price has climbed, or do they actually understand the long-term potential of $BTC better than the majority?
Remember: it is these organizations that are the true professional investors, with long-term vision and clear strategies

#Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinTreasury #DigitalAssets #Investing

Many investors are asking: “Where’s the altseason? $BTC is flying, but altcoins are dead quiet!” The answer lies in market cycles — and more specifically, Bitcoin Dominance.
Let’s break it down based on historical patterns and what’s unfolding now.
1. Altcoin season only begins when Bitcoin Dominance breaks down after a long uptrend
Looking back at the two most recent market cycles (2017–2021 and 2022–2025), we notice a repeating pattern:

📊 BTC Dominance tends to climb steadily for about 1,000 days before sharply reversing — and that’s usually when the real altseason begins.
In the last cycle, BTC dominance dropped hard right after Bitcoin hit its peak in late 2021.

Right now, BTC Dominance has already risen for exactly 1,066 days — matching the previous cycle almost perfectly.

The turning point might be closer than we think.

2. Altseason tends to happen at the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle

Altcoins don’t run first. They run last — as the final wave of the entire market.
Early bull runs: Bitcoin dominates capital flow.

Late-stage runs: BTC slows → capital rotates into altcoins → altseason explodes.

⏳ If you’ve been patient with Bitcoin, you’ll need double the patience with altcoins.

3. Altcoins are in a deep accumulation phase

The current altcoin market feels boring. But beneath the surface, things are coiling. Many altcoins are quietly consolidating at low valuations — especially low-cap gems. This phase often precedes explosive growth.

Just because they’re quiet doesn’t mean they’re weak.

4. My Personal Outlook
📌 Based on cycles, dominance structure, and macro liquidity trends, I believe:
A true altcoin season will likely kick off in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, coinciding with:

The Fed’s first interest rate cuts

Clear signs of economic slowdown in the U.S.

Inflation trending back to 2%

Risk-on sentiment returning across global markets

Final Thoughts
Altseason is the reward for those who wait. If you’ve made it this far with conviction, don’t give up before the rotation begins. But remember one golden rule:
Take profits while you’re smiling. Altcoins don’t forgive greed.

#Altseason #BTCdominance #CryptoCycle #Bitcoin

Q1/2025 ended quite unexpectedly for most investors. Based on market cycles and seasonal patterns, this quarter should have been one of the strongest of the year — but reality said otherwise.
Bitcoin closed the quarter with only a modest correction, relatively mild given its historical volatility. However, Ethereum posted one of its worst Q1 performances ever.

But when you zoom out to the quarterly chart, the Q1/2025 candle bears a strong resemblance to Q2/2021 — which preceded a massive rally. I lean toward the possibility that Ethereum could be setting up for a rebound in the coming quarters.
Despite the recent stream of negative news, bad headlines often just serve to rationalize price moves. Ethereum remains the queen of crypto, with the strongest ecosystem, most developers, and robust foundational technologies.
At ~$1,800, ETH is trading near a strong support zone around $1,600. From a risk/reward perspective, this looks like a very attractive entry. Honestly, I’m feeling even more bullish on ETH than on BTC right now.
So if not now, then when is the right time to accumulate more ETH?
#Ethereum✅ #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #CryptoMarket #AltcoinSeason

📌 Although I firmly believe Bitcoin will reach $1M per BTC, I still decided to take profits on a significant portion of my Bitcoin holdings around the $100,000 mark.
📌 It’s not that I could predict today’s correction, but rather thanks to experience, disciplined risk management, and capital preservation strategies.
📌 If we look closely at previous bull runs, whenever Bitcoin’s price surged too fast within a short period, it often left behind a “liquidity gap.” The same happened during the rally in November 2024, when BTC soared rapidly, creating a liquidity gap between $72,000 and $90,000.

📌 This zone lacks substantial buy/sell activity, meaning that when Bitcoin retraces into this liquidity void, prices tend to drop rapidly due to weak support. Historically, most liquidity gaps eventually get filled—it’s only a matter of time.

📌 Not only Bitcoin but most assets behave similarly around liquidity gaps because of these key factors:

1️⃣ Magnet Liquidity Effect – Liquidity acts like a magnet. Market makers push prices back into these gaps to absorb unfilled liquidity orders, restoring market equilibrium.
2️⃣ Market Structure & Re-Accumulation – After a major rally, institutions & whales need to accumulate more positions at lower price levels, causing prices to revisit prior liquidity voids.
3️⃣ Market Inefficiency – Self-Correcting Mechanism – Markets naturally retest unconfirmed price levels to ensure a more accurate reflection of real supply and demand.
4️⃣ Stop-Hunt & Liquidity Sweeps – Market makers and whales often drive prices back to liquidity gaps to trigger stop-losses of retail traders, causing cascading liquidations.

📌 Why is now a critical moment for filling the liquidity gap?
1️⃣ U.S. CPI inflation is rising again, and the FED has hinted at delaying rate cuts until at least Q3 2025.
2️⃣ Uncertainty over trade wars & tariffs initiated by Trump, which could significantly impact the U.S. economy.
3️⃣ A cautious and pessimistic sentiment in U.S. stock markets, increasing overall market volatility.
4️⃣ FED’s ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) – The FED’s balance sheet shows a continuous decline in total assets, indicating liquidity is being drained from the economy.
5️⃣ Cooling off the market after an overheated rally, as leverage positions across exchanges remain at high levels, making the market vulnerable to liquidations.

🔥 Overall, this $BTC correction isn’t surprising. The fundamental growth of the market remains strong, so there’s no reason to be overly bearish or assume that the long-term trend has shifted.

#bitcoin #corrections #liquiditygrap

🔹 Looking at Bitcoin’s price action across previous Halving cycles, we can see clear patterns emerging. If history repeats itself, this could explain why we haven’t seen a truly explosive altcoin season yet.

✅ 1st: Bitcoin has yet to enter its most euphoric growth phase
In previous cycles, Bitcoin tended to trade sideways for several months after the Halving before entering its strongest uptrend.Data from Coinbase Institutional x Glassnode shows that this cycle is closely mirroring the second Halving cycle (2016-2020).

✅ 2nd: The altcoin season only starts after Bitcoin reaches ATH
Historically, altcoins only experience their parabolic rallies after Bitcoin has hit its all-time high (ATH).At the start of a bull run, capital primarily flows into Bitcoin, pushing BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) higher. Only after Bitcoin’s peak does money start rotating into altcoins.

✅ 3rd: The most euphoric phase could begin as early as Q1 2025
Based on past cycles, we are approaching the point of explosive price action.
If the previous patterns hold, Bitcoin could reach a new ATH in the coming months, setting the stage for a full-scale altcoin season.

📌 Key Signals to Watch for an Incoming Altseason

🔹 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) declining – A clear sign that capital is rotating into altcoins.
🔹 Market sentiment shift – When Bitcoin reaches ATH, altcoin FOMO kicks in.
🔹 New money entering the market – Institutional and retail investors increasing exposure to crypto.

📣 Bottom Line:
🔥 If history repeats itself, Q1 2025 could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s strongest growth phase, paving the way for an explosive altcoin season! 🚀


#BTC #Altcoins #Halving #Bullrun #Altseason

1️⃣. The FED and PCE Inflation Are Pressuring the Crypto Market
✅ On December 18th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, FED Chair Jerome Powell carried out the third interest rate cut of the year, as anticipated by the market. However, he also took a more hawkish stance on monetary policy for 2025. Due to signs of rising PCE inflation, the FED now plans to reduce interest rates only twice in 2025, instead of the four times previously expected.

✅ Financial markets immediately reacted negatively to this announcement, and the crypto market, being highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, was no exception:
Bitcoin dropped from $108,000 to $92,000, losing over 15% of its value. Altcoins declined by an average of 20%-50%, with some returning to price levels seen when Bitcoin was below $60,000.

2️⃣. The Importance of Macroeconomic Factors for the Crypto Market
✅ Currently, the total market capitalization of crypto stands at $3.5 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of the United Kingdom. Although still small compared to the global capital markets, crypto’s current size means it cannot avoid being affected by global macroeconomic trends.

✅ The crypto market’s growth throughout 2024 was driven by a series of favorable conditions:
Improved global liquidity, reflected in the growth of the M2 money supply from major central banks.FED’s continuous rate cuts in 2024, providing conditions for capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.Pro-Crypto policies from President Donald Trump, boosting confidence in the market.

✅ However, the current landscape is rapidly changing. The PCE inflation index – the FED’s preferred measure of inflation – is showing signs of rising again, while the FED’s tightening monetary policy remains in effect. The FED not only keeps interest rates high but is also withdrawing liquidity from the market by reducing its asset holdings (such as bonds) on its balance sheet. If inflation continues to rise sharply, the FED may even raise interest rates again, potentially accepting an economic crisis, as it has done in the past, to combat inflation.

3️⃣. PCE Inflation and the Future of the Crypto Market
✅ In a context of persistent inflation, crypto – which is considered a high-risk asset – will face significant challenges if the FED maintains high interest rates or raises them again:
Liquidity Drain: Higher capital costs will lead to reduced flows into risk assets.Declining Value: Bitcoin and altcoins will struggle to remain attractive as traditional assets like bonds become more appealing.Market Sentiment: Pessimism may spread if inflation spirals out of control, potentially triggering another crypto winter.

4️⃣. Strategies to Prepare for the Future
✅ For crypto investors, closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators is essential. Among them, the PCE inflation index in the United States is currently the most critical:
If PCE stabilizes or decreases, crypto can continue its long-term growth trend.If PCE rises sharply, prepare for a scenario of significant corrections, or even a prolonged crypto winter.

✅ Additionally, building a long-term strategy is crucial:
Diversify portfolios to reduce concentration risk in highly volatile altcoins.Consider holding a portion of assets in stablecoins or less risky instruments to preserve capital.Keep a close eye on the FED’s actions and global monetary policies to adjust strategies promptly.

5️⃣. Conclusion
✅ The mantra “Don’t fight the FED” has always been true for financial markets, and crypto is no exception. With a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion, crypto is no longer a market that operates “outside” macroeconomic forces. While the growth seen in 2024 was fueled by favorable conditions, this may not last forever. To succeed in this market, investors must always prepare for the worst scenarios and remain adaptable to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
✅ Investing without considering the macroeconomic environment is like farming without checking the weather forecast. Every sector is interconnected, and we cannot analyze any single field in isolation.


#BitcoinAnalysis
#MacroEconomics
#FEDPolicy
#InflationImpact
#GlobalLiquidity

Bitcoin has officially surpassed the $100,000 milestone, marking a historic event in the crypto market. However, many investors are currently debating whether to hold or wait for a better opportunity to enter the market, especially given the crypto market's notorious volatility, where corrections of 20%-30% are common.
Here are some popular strategies to minimize risks and capitalize on the growth season for optimal profits:

1. Investment Strategies
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA):Investors allocate a fixed amount of money to purchase Bitcoin at regular intervals, regardless of price.Pros: Eliminates emotional decision-making, reduces short-term volatility risks.Cons: You might accumulate Bitcoin at higher average prices if the market continues to rise sharply.Buying during small corrections:This strategy involves buying Bitcoin only during specific corrections, typically between 5%-20%.Pros: Allows accumulation at better prices, suitable during uptrends.Cons: Requires close market monitoring and may result in missed opportunities during sustained uptrends.Buying during major corrections (>20%):Investors wait for significant corrections to buy Bitcoin at lower prices.Pros: Reduced risk when buying near the bottom of large corrections.Cons: Requires patience, and there's no guarantee that prices will drop significantly.
2. Could Bitcoin Revisit the $75k-$85k Range?

Liquidity Gap ($75k-$85k):Market data shows this range has very little liquidity as Bitcoin rose too quickly, leaving minimal accumulation.This means the $75k-$85k range is a high-risk area with weak support if prices reverse.CME Futures Gap:On CME Futures, this range has created a price gap, and historically, Bitcoin prices tend to fill these gaps over time.Probability:Based on historical market behavior, there’s roughly a 50% chance that Bitcoin could experience a significant correction and revisit this range.

3. Market Psychology During Bull Runs
During growth phases, $BTC ’s price can rise irrationally, breaking through expectations. Similarly, in bear markets, prices can drop to levels that few anticipate. Therefore:
The gap in the $75k-$85k range might be ignored during this bull run.The gap could only be filled during the next downtrend cycle, when Bitcoin finishes its bullish phase and begins its correction.If that happens, the $75k-$85k range could potentially become the bottom of the next bear market.
4. Conclusion
There is no single "best" strategy; each strategy works better and is more suitable for different circumstances, and all come with their own risks.Note, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. The crypto market is highly volatile and risky, and investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance before making decisions.Remember, investing in Bitcoin isn’t just about short-term gains; it’s about believing in its long-term potential. Those who remain disciplined and patient are likely to reap the rewards in the future.


#BTC☀
#InvestingStrategies
#CMEGap
#BullMarket

If you still doubt the arrival of an Altcoin Season, let me show you the strict cyclical nature of the Crypto market.Take a look at the total market cap chart (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), and you’ll notice the following astonishing similarities:

From the peak of altcoins, the market enters a downtrend lasting 12 months.From the bottom of the downtrend, the market recovers to the previous peak within 24 months.From the point of recovery to the previous peak, the market experiences 12 months of growth to establish a new peak.

As of now, the movement of the Altcoin market shows a highly consistent cyclical pattern and striking similarity to the previous two cycles. With the total market cap of altcoins nearing the peak of 2021, we seem to be just entering the growth phase. This means we likely have a year ahead to enjoy the growth in this cycle.
Understanding the market’s cyclical nature is crucial because “the trend is your friend.” By identifying the main trend, we can make appropriate plans to maximize the potential of this growth season.Let’s begin to enjoy the party – a party we’ve been waiting for over two years!
#altcoinseason #Uptrend #BullistMarket

While $BTC continues to break new all-time highs (ATH) and is approaching $100,000—a historic psychological milestone for the crypto market—altcoins have been underperforming Bitcoin significantly, even looking rather lackluster.
Now, with each Bitcoin worth as much as a condominium, the Bitcoin game seems almost exclusively reserved for Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Elon Musk. As a result, most retail investors will turn to altcoins (lower market-cap tokens other than Bitcoin) to optimize their returns.This has led many to doubt whether an altcoin season—where altcoins soar x5, x10, or even x20 like in previous cycles—will actually happen.
Such skepticism is understandable because not many investors have the patience and experience to foresee the macro trends in the market. Similarly, there was skepticism when Bitcoin hit $30,000 as to whether it could return to its 2021 ATH of $69,000. And when Bitcoin reached a new ATH in March 2024, there was significant doubt that it could climb to $100,000.I’ve explained this numerous times to skeptics of Bitcoin, and I believe that’s no longer necessary. Instead, I’ll explain why there will always be an altcoin season when Bitcoin hits new ATHs:1) The Entry of New Capital:When Bitcoin reaches ATH, mainstream media and social media attention surge, driving not only increased capital into Bitcoin but also heightened interest in altcoins. This influx of new participants brings fresh capital into the market.
2) Fear of Missing Out (FOMO):Retail investors often feel like they’ve “missed the boat” as Bitcoin’s price becomes too high compared to their financial capacity. This creates a psychological shift toward altcoins, which are perceived as offering higher returns (x2, x5, or even x10). Lower market-cap tokens often attract capital due to their affordability and the potential for higher gains.
3) Portfolio Rebalancing:Institutional investors, professional traders, and asset management firms—essentially the whales and sharks of the market—adhere to fundamental investment principles like portfolio diversification. They allocate a fixed ratio among Bitcoin, altcoins, and stablecoins (or cash). As Bitcoin’s price rises, its weight in their portfolios exceeds planned allocations, prompting them to sell some Bitcoin to rebalance. This capital then flows into altcoins.4) The Crypto Community Is Invested in BitcoinMost members of the crypto community, including investment funds, projects, exchanges, companies, and platforms, understand that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Hence, Bitcoin comprises a significant share of their reserves. When Bitcoin’s value increases, these players gain additional resources to promote their projects and tokens. They can sell Bitcoin profits and “pump” their tokens, aiming to distribute them to the market at favorable prices when conditions are right.5) The “Money Flows from Large to Small” EffectAs Bitcoin rises sharply and stabilizes near its new ATH, market capital tends to flow from larger assets (Bitcoin) to smaller ones (altcoins). This pattern of capital rotation has repeated in previous cycles.6) Leveraging StrategiesBitcoin is often used as a primary collateral asset on exchanges and DeFi platforms. When Bitcoin’s price rises, the value of collateral increases, enabling investors to borrow more funds. Investors typically use Bitcoin as collateral to borrow stablecoins, which they then use to purchase altcoins. This strategy allows them to maximize the market’s growth potential while retaining their Bitcoin holdings.7) Abundant LiquidityWhen Bitcoin reaches a new ATH, many investors are in profit, coupled with a positive market sentiment and fresh capital eager to enter the market. These factors create an environment of abundant liquidity, which is highly favorable for inflating altcoins. Since altcoins usually have smaller market caps, it becomes relatively easier and more feasible to drive their prices up by several multiples.ConclusionWith these 7 reasons in mind, from psychological factors to external circumstances, it’s clear that an altcoin season following a significant Bitcoin rally, especially when Bitcoin reaches a new ATH, is inevitable. There’s no reason to doubt the occurrence of an altcoin season. Its scale, however, will largely depend on Bitcoin’s performance and market capitalization growth. The stronger Bitcoin’s growth, the more spectacular the altcoin season will be.We should be glad the altcoin season hasn’t arrived yet rather than worrying or doubting it!#bitcoin #altcoinseason #BullRun🐂

As $BTC approaches significant milestones, here’s my outlook on the current bullish trajectory:
$120,000 Target: I anticipate that Bitcoin will move towards the $120,000 range in this current growth phase. This level might serve as a temporary peak, where Bitcoin could experience a brief pause or consolidation.
$100,000 as Key Support: After reaching $120,000, Bitcoin may see a pullback, with $100,000 acting as a crucial support level. Given the psychological importance of this round figure, I believe it will attract strong buying interest and provide a foundation for the next upward leg. Only when Bitcoin achieves the $100,000 mark will we likely see the market truly come alive with renewed energy.
Climbing to $200,000: Once it solidifies support around $100,000, Bitcoin could make its way up to $200,000. I view this as the potential peak of the current cycle. At this level, we might see heightened profit-taking and consolidation, reflecting market sentiment at an all-time high.
Distribution Phase in $180,000 - $200,000: In this phase, I expect Bitcoin to oscillate within the $180,000 to $200,000 range as investors lock in profits and the market stabilizes. This range could mark the end of the current bullish cycle.
This forecast aligns with Bitcoin’s historical price movements and psychological levels in each cycle. Of course, macroeconomic factors and institutional participation, such as the potential impact of ETFs, will continue to influence the market. For now, I’m watching these key levels closely as Bitcoin navigates its path to a new all-time high.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #BTC #CryptoMarket

$BTC at $73,000 today is very different from $73,000 in March 2024. I don’t feel much excitement; perhaps the market following my forecast has taken away the element of surprise.The BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, which has the largest volume and liquidity for Bitcoin, is what I usually analyze to gauge market dynamics.One key point to note is that the two CVD indicators, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD Candles) and Aggregated Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (Spot CVD), still show a long-term downtrend, creating a divergence with the macro uptrend in BTC’s price action.To explain this phenomenon, although Bitcoin’s price has risen and sellers have been selling aggressively (possibly to take profits during Bitcoin’s growth phase), there has been an incredibly strong buying force that absorbed nearly all the selling liquidity. This is a very subtle signal indicating that large whales have been quietly accumulating all this time. Only the biggest whales and market makers have the ability to create such a macro divergence between price and the CVD indicators.

#Uptrend
#bitcoin☀️

The macro technical indicators on the weekly timeframe suggest that if $BTC surpasses $70,000, it could begin a journey to explore new ATH levels.In addition, with the upcoming U.S. election on November 5, 2024, Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is a strong supporter of crypto. If he wins, not only would it ensure a crypto-friendly regulatory environment for development in the U.S., but there’s a high probability that the bill to purchase 1 million Bitcoin as national reserve assets in the U.S. Treasury would pass.
As long as investors believe in this, regardless of the outcome, that belief alone could push #Bitcoin❗ to new ATH levels before the election takes place.


#newATH
#Uptrend
#BullRun🐂

In 2024, the price of gold has hit new record highs; U.S. stock indices have repeatedly reached new peaks; Bitcoin has set a new all-time high; and global real estate prices (except for commercial real estate and the Chinese market) are still growing at a rapid pace. Most asset classes are appreciating, but that’s only half the story.

When looking at global liquidity, the total money supply has nearly doubled in just 10 years (2014-2024), reaching a record of $106 trillion USD. In just 10 years, central banks and governments have printed an amount of new money equivalent to the entire money supply accumulated over several previous decades combined.
The nominal M2 money supply (which includes cash, short-term deposits, money market funds, certificates of deposit, etc.) has grown at an average rate of 6.5% per year over the past 10 years, while inflation has averaged only 2.5% annually. This further supports the argument that the world is in a phase of “asset inflation.” Much of the new money supply in recent years seems to have been funneled into investment sectors rather than consumption.
While this might appear positive, as goods and services have not seen excessive price hikes that would negatively affect people’s lives, there is a downside. Asset inflation is inflating the value of assets such as real estate, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, making those who own assets increasingly wealthy. Conversely, those who do not own assets are becoming poorer, to the point where many people, even if they work their whole lives, can no longer afford to own property as they once could.
Given the current levels of average income, asset prices, inflation, and living standards, it’s almost impossible for anyone working a regular job to afford a home, own a single Bitcoin, or have enough gold or a solid stock portfolio to secure retirement.Whether it’s good or bad, this is how the world’s financial system operates, and there’s little we can do to change it. If you don’t invest, you will fall further behind the rest of the world. If you can’t find investment sectors with exceptional growth, you will never catch up with the wealthy.

#BTC☀

Although Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been actively purchasing Bitcoin recently, one indicator suggests otherwise. The Coinbase Premium Indicator, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Bitcoin on Binance (BTC/USDT pair), has shown a negative premium. This implies that:1. Investors on Coinbase are selling Bitcoin more than the rest of the market.2. Investors on Coinbase are staying out of the current price rally.As Coinbase Pro is considered a gateway for institutional investors to purchase cryptocurrencies, the Coinbase Premium is often used to gauge institutional demand from U.S.-based whales.
However, the possibility of inflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs affecting Bitcoin prices on the spot market cannot be entirely ruled out. It’s highly likely that Bitcoin Spot ETFs are still accumulating Bitcoin through OTC (over-the-counter) platforms. The positive aspect here is that even without experiencing a supply shock similar to early 2024, when Bitcoin Spot ETFs were aggressively purchasing, the price is currently only about 10% below the all-time high (ATH).

I am confident that there is an 80% chance $BTC will reach a new ATH within October, especially once we see the Coinbase Premium indicator turn positive again.

#BitcoinETF💰💰💰
#Bitcoin❗ #BTC☀

Due to varying approaches and perspectives on data, the determination of the total supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges differs significantly between companies and on-chain analysis tools. While we’ve often heard that the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has reached its lowest level in years according to prominent analysis companies like Glassnode or CryptoQuant, CoinMetrics’ analysis seems to suggest otherwise.Notably, in the past 24 hours, Coinglass data has shown that nearly 100,000 $BTC were moved to exchanges. However, this signal has not been confirmed by other companies or by real-time data providers. Another noteworthy piece of information is that by the end of September 2024, CoinMetrics data indicated that an additional 800,000 Bitcoin had been added to exchange wallets, yet other on-chain analysis companies did not reflect this change.
This data discrepancy is quite concerning because it raises questions about the honesty or actual capabilities of the companies providing on-chain data to the market: Is there data manipulation, or do they truly have the capacity to provide accurate data?

Although blockchain is highly transparent, it’s also complex enough to conceal manipulative behavior or significant shifts from most of us who lack the resources and ability to track and analyze the dense on-chain data. Therefore, we shouldn’t place blind trust in data from these providers, and we should cross-check and follow data from multiple sources.If anyone recalls the crash in early April 2021 when Bitcoin dropped 50% within a week from $60,000 to $30,000, I also noticed a similar data discrepancy between exchanges, where over 150,000 Bitcoin were moved to exchanges according to Coinglass, but other companies didn’t register any movement. The same happened in late July 2021 when Bitcoin resumed its upward trend from $30,000 to a new ATH at $69,000.Therefore, my experience shows that a significant data discrepancy in the circulating supply of Bitcoin on exchanges often precedes a major market event. I can’t be sure if it will be an upward or downward movement, but I am confident that we are likely to see Bitcoin’s price break out of its current trajectory, either dropping below $50,000 or hitting a new ATH, with a bull run beginning. Naturally, I lean towards the scenario of a bull run, as large investors start moving Bitcoin to exchanges, driving up the price and distributing afterward (because once the price is high, moving a large amount of Bitcoin to exchanges will cause concern). Whichever scenario occurs, we need a plan for all contingencies!
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