Laniakea

Q1/2025 ended quite unexpectedly for most investors. Based on market cycles and seasonal patterns, this quarter should have been one of the strongest of the year — but reality said otherwise.
Bitcoin closed the quarter with only a modest correction, relatively mild given its historical volatility. However, Ethereum posted one of its worst Q1 performances ever.

But when you zoom out to the quarterly chart, the Q1/2025 candle bears a strong resemblance to Q2/2021 — which preceded a massive rally. I lean toward the possibility that Ethereum could be setting up for a rebound in the coming quarters.
Despite the recent stream of negative news, bad headlines often just serve to rationalize price moves. Ethereum remains the queen of crypto, with the strongest ecosystem, most developers, and robust foundational technologies.
At ~$1,800, ETH is trading near a strong support zone around $1,600. From a risk/reward perspective, this looks like a very attractive entry. Honestly, I’m feeling even more bullish on ETH than on BTC right now.
So if not now, then when is the right time to accumulate more ETH?
#Ethereum✅ #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #CryptoMarket #AltcoinSeason

📌 Although I firmly believe Bitcoin will reach $1M per BTC, I still decided to take profits on a significant portion of my Bitcoin holdings around the $100,000 mark.
📌 It’s not that I could predict today’s correction, but rather thanks to experience, disciplined risk management, and capital preservation strategies.
📌 If we look closely at previous bull runs, whenever Bitcoin’s price surged too fast within a short period, it often left behind a “liquidity gap.” The same happened during the rally in November 2024, when BTC soared rapidly, creating a liquidity gap between $72,000 and $90,000.

📌 This zone lacks substantial buy/sell activity, meaning that when Bitcoin retraces into this liquidity void, prices tend to drop rapidly due to weak support. Historically, most liquidity gaps eventually get filled—it’s only a matter of time.

📌 Not only Bitcoin but most assets behave similarly around liquidity gaps because of these key factors:

1️⃣ Magnet Liquidity Effect – Liquidity acts like a magnet. Market makers push prices back into these gaps to absorb unfilled liquidity orders, restoring market equilibrium.
2️⃣ Market Structure & Re-Accumulation – After a major rally, institutions & whales need to accumulate more positions at lower price levels, causing prices to revisit prior liquidity voids.
3️⃣ Market Inefficiency – Self-Correcting Mechanism – Markets naturally retest unconfirmed price levels to ensure a more accurate reflection of real supply and demand.
4️⃣ Stop-Hunt & Liquidity Sweeps – Market makers and whales often drive prices back to liquidity gaps to trigger stop-losses of retail traders, causing cascading liquidations.

📌 Why is now a critical moment for filling the liquidity gap?
1️⃣ U.S. CPI inflation is rising again, and the FED has hinted at delaying rate cuts until at least Q3 2025.
2️⃣ Uncertainty over trade wars & tariffs initiated by Trump, which could significantly impact the U.S. economy.
3️⃣ A cautious and pessimistic sentiment in U.S. stock markets, increasing overall market volatility.
4️⃣ FED’s ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) – The FED’s balance sheet shows a continuous decline in total assets, indicating liquidity is being drained from the economy.
5️⃣ Cooling off the market after an overheated rally, as leverage positions across exchanges remain at high levels, making the market vulnerable to liquidations.

🔥 Overall, this $BTC correction isn’t surprising. The fundamental growth of the market remains strong, so there’s no reason to be overly bearish or assume that the long-term trend has shifted.

#bitcoin #corrections #liquiditygrap

🔹 Looking at Bitcoin’s price action across previous Halving cycles, we can see clear patterns emerging. If history repeats itself, this could explain why we haven’t seen a truly explosive altcoin season yet.

✅ 1st: Bitcoin has yet to enter its most euphoric growth phase
In previous cycles, Bitcoin tended to trade sideways for several months after the Halving before entering its strongest uptrend.Data from Coinbase Institutional x Glassnode shows that this cycle is closely mirroring the second Halving cycle (2016-2020).

✅ 2nd: The altcoin season only starts after Bitcoin reaches ATH
Historically, altcoins only experience their parabolic rallies after Bitcoin has hit its all-time high (ATH).At the start of a bull run, capital primarily flows into Bitcoin, pushing BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) higher. Only after Bitcoin’s peak does money start rotating into altcoins.

✅ 3rd: The most euphoric phase could begin as early as Q1 2025
Based on past cycles, we are approaching the point of explosive price action.
If the previous patterns hold, Bitcoin could reach a new ATH in the coming months, setting the stage for a full-scale altcoin season.

📌 Key Signals to Watch for an Incoming Altseason

🔹 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) declining – A clear sign that capital is rotating into altcoins.
🔹 Market sentiment shift – When Bitcoin reaches ATH, altcoin FOMO kicks in.
🔹 New money entering the market – Institutional and retail investors increasing exposure to crypto.

📣 Bottom Line:
🔥 If history repeats itself, Q1 2025 could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s strongest growth phase, paving the way for an explosive altcoin season! 🚀


#BTC #Altcoins #Halving #Bullrun #Altseason

1️⃣. The FED and PCE Inflation Are Pressuring the Crypto Market
✅ On December 18th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, FED Chair Jerome Powell carried out the third interest rate cut of the year, as anticipated by the market. However, he also took a more hawkish stance on monetary policy for 2025. Due to signs of rising PCE inflation, the FED now plans to reduce interest rates only twice in 2025, instead of the four times previously expected.

✅ Financial markets immediately reacted negatively to this announcement, and the crypto market, being highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, was no exception:
Bitcoin dropped from $108,000 to $92,000, losing over 15% of its value. Altcoins declined by an average of 20%-50%, with some returning to price levels seen when Bitcoin was below $60,000.

2️⃣. The Importance of Macroeconomic Factors for the Crypto Market
✅ Currently, the total market capitalization of crypto stands at $3.5 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of the United Kingdom. Although still small compared to the global capital markets, crypto’s current size means it cannot avoid being affected by global macroeconomic trends.

✅ The crypto market’s growth throughout 2024 was driven by a series of favorable conditions:
Improved global liquidity, reflected in the growth of the M2 money supply from major central banks.FED’s continuous rate cuts in 2024, providing conditions for capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.Pro-Crypto policies from President Donald Trump, boosting confidence in the market.

✅ However, the current landscape is rapidly changing. The PCE inflation index – the FED’s preferred measure of inflation – is showing signs of rising again, while the FED’s tightening monetary policy remains in effect. The FED not only keeps interest rates high but is also withdrawing liquidity from the market by reducing its asset holdings (such as bonds) on its balance sheet. If inflation continues to rise sharply, the FED may even raise interest rates again, potentially accepting an economic crisis, as it has done in the past, to combat inflation.

3️⃣. PCE Inflation and the Future of the Crypto Market
✅ In a context of persistent inflation, crypto – which is considered a high-risk asset – will face significant challenges if the FED maintains high interest rates or raises them again:
Liquidity Drain: Higher capital costs will lead to reduced flows into risk assets.Declining Value: Bitcoin and altcoins will struggle to remain attractive as traditional assets like bonds become more appealing.Market Sentiment: Pessimism may spread if inflation spirals out of control, potentially triggering another crypto winter.

4️⃣. Strategies to Prepare for the Future
✅ For crypto investors, closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators is essential. Among them, the PCE inflation index in the United States is currently the most critical:
If PCE stabilizes or decreases, crypto can continue its long-term growth trend.If PCE rises sharply, prepare for a scenario of significant corrections, or even a prolonged crypto winter.

✅ Additionally, building a long-term strategy is crucial:
Diversify portfolios to reduce concentration risk in highly volatile altcoins.Consider holding a portion of assets in stablecoins or less risky instruments to preserve capital.Keep a close eye on the FED’s actions and global monetary policies to adjust strategies promptly.

5️⃣. Conclusion
✅ The mantra “Don’t fight the FED” has always been true for financial markets, and crypto is no exception. With a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion, crypto is no longer a market that operates “outside” macroeconomic forces. While the growth seen in 2024 was fueled by favorable conditions, this may not last forever. To succeed in this market, investors must always prepare for the worst scenarios and remain adaptable to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
✅ Investing without considering the macroeconomic environment is like farming without checking the weather forecast. Every sector is interconnected, and we cannot analyze any single field in isolation.


#BitcoinAnalysis
#MacroEconomics
#FEDPolicy
#InflationImpact
#GlobalLiquidity

Bitcoin has officially surpassed the $100,000 milestone, marking a historic event in the crypto market. However, many investors are currently debating whether to hold or wait for a better opportunity to enter the market, especially given the crypto market's notorious volatility, where corrections of 20%-30% are common.
Here are some popular strategies to minimize risks and capitalize on the growth season for optimal profits:

1. Investment Strategies
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA):Investors allocate a fixed amount of money to purchase Bitcoin at regular intervals, regardless of price.Pros: Eliminates emotional decision-making, reduces short-term volatility risks.Cons: You might accumulate Bitcoin at higher average prices if the market continues to rise sharply.Buying during small corrections:This strategy involves buying Bitcoin only during specific corrections, typically between 5%-20%.Pros: Allows accumulation at better prices, suitable during uptrends.Cons: Requires close market monitoring and may result in missed opportunities during sustained uptrends.Buying during major corrections (>20%):Investors wait for significant corrections to buy Bitcoin at lower prices.Pros: Reduced risk when buying near the bottom of large corrections.Cons: Requires patience, and there's no guarantee that prices will drop significantly.
2. Could Bitcoin Revisit the $75k-$85k Range?

Liquidity Gap ($75k-$85k):Market data shows this range has very little liquidity as Bitcoin rose too quickly, leaving minimal accumulation.This means the $75k-$85k range is a high-risk area with weak support if prices reverse.CME Futures Gap:On CME Futures, this range has created a price gap, and historically, Bitcoin prices tend to fill these gaps over time.Probability:Based on historical market behavior, there’s roughly a 50% chance that Bitcoin could experience a significant correction and revisit this range.

3. Market Psychology During Bull Runs
During growth phases, $BTC ’s price can rise irrationally, breaking through expectations. Similarly, in bear markets, prices can drop to levels that few anticipate. Therefore:
The gap in the $75k-$85k range might be ignored during this bull run.The gap could only be filled during the next downtrend cycle, when Bitcoin finishes its bullish phase and begins its correction.If that happens, the $75k-$85k range could potentially become the bottom of the next bear market.
4. Conclusion
There is no single "best" strategy; each strategy works better and is more suitable for different circumstances, and all come with their own risks.Note, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. The crypto market is highly volatile and risky, and investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance before making decisions.Remember, investing in Bitcoin isn’t just about short-term gains; it’s about believing in its long-term potential. Those who remain disciplined and patient are likely to reap the rewards in the future.


#BTC☀
#InvestingStrategies
#CMEGap
#BullMarket

If you still doubt the arrival of an Altcoin Season, let me show you the strict cyclical nature of the Crypto market.Take a look at the total market cap chart (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), and you’ll notice the following astonishing similarities:

From the peak of altcoins, the market enters a downtrend lasting 12 months.From the bottom of the downtrend, the market recovers to the previous peak within 24 months.From the point of recovery to the previous peak, the market experiences 12 months of growth to establish a new peak.

As of now, the movement of the Altcoin market shows a highly consistent cyclical pattern and striking similarity to the previous two cycles. With the total market cap of altcoins nearing the peak of 2021, we seem to be just entering the growth phase. This means we likely have a year ahead to enjoy the growth in this cycle.
Understanding the market’s cyclical nature is crucial because “the trend is your friend.” By identifying the main trend, we can make appropriate plans to maximize the potential of this growth season.Let’s begin to enjoy the party – a party we’ve been waiting for over two years!
#altcoinseason #Uptrend #BullistMarket

While $BTC continues to break new all-time highs (ATH) and is approaching $100,000—a historic psychological milestone for the crypto market—altcoins have been underperforming Bitcoin significantly, even looking rather lackluster.
Now, with each Bitcoin worth as much as a condominium, the Bitcoin game seems almost exclusively reserved for Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Elon Musk. As a result, most retail investors will turn to altcoins (lower market-cap tokens other than Bitcoin) to optimize their returns.This has led many to doubt whether an altcoin season—where altcoins soar x5, x10, or even x20 like in previous cycles—will actually happen.
Such skepticism is understandable because not many investors have the patience and experience to foresee the macro trends in the market. Similarly, there was skepticism when Bitcoin hit $30,000 as to whether it could return to its 2021 ATH of $69,000. And when Bitcoin reached a new ATH in March 2024, there was significant doubt that it could climb to $100,000.I’ve explained this numerous times to skeptics of Bitcoin, and I believe that’s no longer necessary. Instead, I’ll explain why there will always be an altcoin season when Bitcoin hits new ATHs:1) The Entry of New Capital:When Bitcoin reaches ATH, mainstream media and social media attention surge, driving not only increased capital into Bitcoin but also heightened interest in altcoins. This influx of new participants brings fresh capital into the market.
2) Fear of Missing Out (FOMO):Retail investors often feel like they’ve “missed the boat” as Bitcoin’s price becomes too high compared to their financial capacity. This creates a psychological shift toward altcoins, which are perceived as offering higher returns (x2, x5, or even x10). Lower market-cap tokens often attract capital due to their affordability and the potential for higher gains.
3) Portfolio Rebalancing:Institutional investors, professional traders, and asset management firms—essentially the whales and sharks of the market—adhere to fundamental investment principles like portfolio diversification. They allocate a fixed ratio among Bitcoin, altcoins, and stablecoins (or cash). As Bitcoin’s price rises, its weight in their portfolios exceeds planned allocations, prompting them to sell some Bitcoin to rebalance. This capital then flows into altcoins.4) The Crypto Community Is Invested in BitcoinMost members of the crypto community, including investment funds, projects, exchanges, companies, and platforms, understand that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Hence, Bitcoin comprises a significant share of their reserves. When Bitcoin’s value increases, these players gain additional resources to promote their projects and tokens. They can sell Bitcoin profits and “pump” their tokens, aiming to distribute them to the market at favorable prices when conditions are right.5) The “Money Flows from Large to Small” EffectAs Bitcoin rises sharply and stabilizes near its new ATH, market capital tends to flow from larger assets (Bitcoin) to smaller ones (altcoins). This pattern of capital rotation has repeated in previous cycles.6) Leveraging StrategiesBitcoin is often used as a primary collateral asset on exchanges and DeFi platforms. When Bitcoin’s price rises, the value of collateral increases, enabling investors to borrow more funds. Investors typically use Bitcoin as collateral to borrow stablecoins, which they then use to purchase altcoins. This strategy allows them to maximize the market’s growth potential while retaining their Bitcoin holdings.7) Abundant LiquidityWhen Bitcoin reaches a new ATH, many investors are in profit, coupled with a positive market sentiment and fresh capital eager to enter the market. These factors create an environment of abundant liquidity, which is highly favorable for inflating altcoins. Since altcoins usually have smaller market caps, it becomes relatively easier and more feasible to drive their prices up by several multiples.ConclusionWith these 7 reasons in mind, from psychological factors to external circumstances, it’s clear that an altcoin season following a significant Bitcoin rally, especially when Bitcoin reaches a new ATH, is inevitable. There’s no reason to doubt the occurrence of an altcoin season. Its scale, however, will largely depend on Bitcoin’s performance and market capitalization growth. The stronger Bitcoin’s growth, the more spectacular the altcoin season will be.We should be glad the altcoin season hasn’t arrived yet rather than worrying or doubting it!#bitcoin #altcoinseason #BullRun🐂

As $BTC approaches significant milestones, here’s my outlook on the current bullish trajectory:
$120,000 Target: I anticipate that Bitcoin will move towards the $120,000 range in this current growth phase. This level might serve as a temporary peak, where Bitcoin could experience a brief pause or consolidation.
$100,000 as Key Support: After reaching $120,000, Bitcoin may see a pullback, with $100,000 acting as a crucial support level. Given the psychological importance of this round figure, I believe it will attract strong buying interest and provide a foundation for the next upward leg. Only when Bitcoin achieves the $100,000 mark will we likely see the market truly come alive with renewed energy.
Climbing to $200,000: Once it solidifies support around $100,000, Bitcoin could make its way up to $200,000. I view this as the potential peak of the current cycle. At this level, we might see heightened profit-taking and consolidation, reflecting market sentiment at an all-time high.
Distribution Phase in $180,000 - $200,000: In this phase, I expect Bitcoin to oscillate within the $180,000 to $200,000 range as investors lock in profits and the market stabilizes. This range could mark the end of the current bullish cycle.
This forecast aligns with Bitcoin’s historical price movements and psychological levels in each cycle. Of course, macroeconomic factors and institutional participation, such as the potential impact of ETFs, will continue to influence the market. For now, I’m watching these key levels closely as Bitcoin navigates its path to a new all-time high.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #BTC #CryptoMarket

$BTC at $73,000 today is very different from $73,000 in March 2024. I don’t feel much excitement; perhaps the market following my forecast has taken away the element of surprise.The BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, which has the largest volume and liquidity for Bitcoin, is what I usually analyze to gauge market dynamics.One key point to note is that the two CVD indicators, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD Candles) and Aggregated Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (Spot CVD), still show a long-term downtrend, creating a divergence with the macro uptrend in BTC’s price action.To explain this phenomenon, although Bitcoin’s price has risen and sellers have been selling aggressively (possibly to take profits during Bitcoin’s growth phase), there has been an incredibly strong buying force that absorbed nearly all the selling liquidity. This is a very subtle signal indicating that large whales have been quietly accumulating all this time. Only the biggest whales and market makers have the ability to create such a macro divergence between price and the CVD indicators.

#Uptrend
#bitcoin☀️

The macro technical indicators on the weekly timeframe suggest that if $BTC surpasses $70,000, it could begin a journey to explore new ATH levels.In addition, with the upcoming U.S. election on November 5, 2024, Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is a strong supporter of crypto. If he wins, not only would it ensure a crypto-friendly regulatory environment for development in the U.S., but there’s a high probability that the bill to purchase 1 million Bitcoin as national reserve assets in the U.S. Treasury would pass.
As long as investors believe in this, regardless of the outcome, that belief alone could push #Bitcoin❗ to new ATH levels before the election takes place.


#newATH
#Uptrend
#BullRun🐂

In 2024, the price of gold has hit new record highs; U.S. stock indices have repeatedly reached new peaks; Bitcoin has set a new all-time high; and global real estate prices (except for commercial real estate and the Chinese market) are still growing at a rapid pace. Most asset classes are appreciating, but that’s only half the story.

When looking at global liquidity, the total money supply has nearly doubled in just 10 years (2014-2024), reaching a record of $106 trillion USD. In just 10 years, central banks and governments have printed an amount of new money equivalent to the entire money supply accumulated over several previous decades combined.
The nominal M2 money supply (which includes cash, short-term deposits, money market funds, certificates of deposit, etc.) has grown at an average rate of 6.5% per year over the past 10 years, while inflation has averaged only 2.5% annually. This further supports the argument that the world is in a phase of “asset inflation.” Much of the new money supply in recent years seems to have been funneled into investment sectors rather than consumption.
While this might appear positive, as goods and services have not seen excessive price hikes that would negatively affect people’s lives, there is a downside. Asset inflation is inflating the value of assets such as real estate, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, making those who own assets increasingly wealthy. Conversely, those who do not own assets are becoming poorer, to the point where many people, even if they work their whole lives, can no longer afford to own property as they once could.
Given the current levels of average income, asset prices, inflation, and living standards, it’s almost impossible for anyone working a regular job to afford a home, own a single Bitcoin, or have enough gold or a solid stock portfolio to secure retirement.Whether it’s good or bad, this is how the world’s financial system operates, and there’s little we can do to change it. If you don’t invest, you will fall further behind the rest of the world. If you can’t find investment sectors with exceptional growth, you will never catch up with the wealthy.

#BTC☀

Although Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been actively purchasing Bitcoin recently, one indicator suggests otherwise. The Coinbase Premium Indicator, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Bitcoin on Binance (BTC/USDT pair), has shown a negative premium. This implies that:1. Investors on Coinbase are selling Bitcoin more than the rest of the market.2. Investors on Coinbase are staying out of the current price rally.As Coinbase Pro is considered a gateway for institutional investors to purchase cryptocurrencies, the Coinbase Premium is often used to gauge institutional demand from U.S.-based whales.
However, the possibility of inflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs affecting Bitcoin prices on the spot market cannot be entirely ruled out. It’s highly likely that Bitcoin Spot ETFs are still accumulating Bitcoin through OTC (over-the-counter) platforms. The positive aspect here is that even without experiencing a supply shock similar to early 2024, when Bitcoin Spot ETFs were aggressively purchasing, the price is currently only about 10% below the all-time high (ATH).

I am confident that there is an 80% chance $BTC will reach a new ATH within October, especially once we see the Coinbase Premium indicator turn positive again.

#BitcoinETF💰💰💰
#Bitcoin❗ #BTC☀

Due to varying approaches and perspectives on data, the determination of the total supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges differs significantly between companies and on-chain analysis tools. While we’ve often heard that the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has reached its lowest level in years according to prominent analysis companies like Glassnode or CryptoQuant, CoinMetrics’ analysis seems to suggest otherwise.Notably, in the past 24 hours, Coinglass data has shown that nearly 100,000 $BTC were moved to exchanges. However, this signal has not been confirmed by other companies or by real-time data providers. Another noteworthy piece of information is that by the end of September 2024, CoinMetrics data indicated that an additional 800,000 Bitcoin had been added to exchange wallets, yet other on-chain analysis companies did not reflect this change.
This data discrepancy is quite concerning because it raises questions about the honesty or actual capabilities of the companies providing on-chain data to the market: Is there data manipulation, or do they truly have the capacity to provide accurate data?

Although blockchain is highly transparent, it’s also complex enough to conceal manipulative behavior or significant shifts from most of us who lack the resources and ability to track and analyze the dense on-chain data. Therefore, we shouldn’t place blind trust in data from these providers, and we should cross-check and follow data from multiple sources.If anyone recalls the crash in early April 2021 when Bitcoin dropped 50% within a week from $60,000 to $30,000, I also noticed a similar data discrepancy between exchanges, where over 150,000 Bitcoin were moved to exchanges according to Coinglass, but other companies didn’t register any movement. The same happened in late July 2021 when Bitcoin resumed its upward trend from $30,000 to a new ATH at $69,000.Therefore, my experience shows that a significant data discrepancy in the circulating supply of Bitcoin on exchanges often precedes a major market event. I can’t be sure if it will be an upward or downward movement, but I am confident that we are likely to see Bitcoin’s price break out of its current trajectory, either dropping below $50,000 or hitting a new ATH, with a bull run beginning. Naturally, I lean towards the scenario of a bull run, as large investors start moving Bitcoin to exchanges, driving up the price and distributing afterward (because once the price is high, moving a large amount of Bitcoin to exchanges will cause concern). Whichever scenario occurs, we need a plan for all contingencies!
#Bitcoin❗
#BitcoinReserve

The recent boring price action in the market has raised doubts about whether a bullrun after the halving, as seen in previous cycles, will occur this time. However, let’s take a look at the serious issues the market faced during Q2 and Q3 of 2024:
1. Mx Got returning 150,000 to 200,000 $BTC to creditors.
2. Genesis company selling $2 billion to $4 billion worth of crypto to repay creditors.
3. The German government selling 50,000 Bitcoins.
4. As usual, miners with weaker resources will have to sell Bitcoin after the halving event to offset losses caused by block reward reductions.
5. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust investors selling more than 300,000 Bitcoins, and Grayscale has also been gradually selling 3 million $ETH ever since both the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust were converted into Spot ETFs.
..
The US Spot ETFs can only absorb part of the se$$lling pressure, but after all, Bitcoin’s price has remained within the key range of $60,000 to $70,000. Furthermore, the inflow of stablecoins (USDT and USDC) continues to pour into exchanges, while assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins are still being withdrawn from exchanges. This shows that the market has been undergoing a strong accumulation phase over the past few months.
Perhaps the market still needs more time, and we need more patience! A bullrun will have to occur in Q4 of 2024!

#BullRun🐂
#bitcoin☀️
#stablecoin

Considering the quarterly candle of $BTC , we observe that Bitcoin remains in a long-term macro uptrend. I believe this growth process is “healthy,” as after each growth period, there is a phase of re-accumulation and market rebalancing. If the price doesn’t grow too quickly, it can continue to rise higher and more sustainably.Contrary to the boredom and skepticism in the market, Bitcoin’s price action over the past two years demonstrates “maturity” and opens the potential for a shift in the growth cycle, in a more positive direction. While it may be too early to claim we are in a “supercycle,” history has shown that no one knows they are in a supercycle while it’s happening.

To further support the macro growth argument for Bitcoin, data on the Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors is rising again, since Bitcoin reached an all-time high in March 2024. This suggests that a re-accumulation phase is underway after Bitcoin’s ATH; the supply with profit has been well-absorbed and redistributed since the beginning of 2024. This process has kept Bitcoin’s price stable, mostly hovering above $60,000, marking the longest period of activity at its highest price level in Bitcoin’s history.

Furthermore, the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs at the beginning of 2024 can be viewed as a significant catalyst, laying the foundation for the ATH that occurred in March 2024. When considering the average purchase price of leading Bitcoin Spot ETF funds, the cost basis is between $56,000 and $60,000. Notably, during this period, the market absorbed supply well, and the price recovered significantly whenever Bitcoin corrected to this range. This strengthens the argument that the cost basis of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs has established a strong macro support zone around the $60,000 level.

Thus, the market’s pessimism and skepticism likely stem from the decline of altcoins and disappointment with $ETH ’s price performance. But these factors do not tell the whole story; Bitcoin remains the king coin and leads the market. Until Bitcoin continues its bull run, it’s hard to expect a breakout for altcoins or Ethereum. To me, however, the underperformance of altcoins and Ethereum is currently presenting a good accumulation opportunity. Consider this carefully, as if I am not mistaken, the window for accumulation may not be open for much longer.

#BitcoinSpotETF
#supercycle
#bitcoin☀️
#Altcoins👀🚀

“From a long time, I have had my own answer to the greatest mystery in the crypto market: Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
Remember, Bitcoin is not a tree that can grow naturally. Bitcoin is a digital system, which requires a codebase, a network to protect it, and electricity to keep it running. Who provided all of that in the early days and continues to maintain it until Bitcoin became secure enough to be fully decentralized?From having no value to surpassing $70,000 per BTC, with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion in just 15 years, this must have required an extremely meticulous plan and the support of one or more entities with immense financial resources to achieve.Statistically, the probability of a system like Bitcoin forming, developing, and succeeding in such a short period is nearly impossible within our current civilization. To make this clearer, just look at the millions of coins/tokens on the market today—can you find a second project that has succeeded like Bitcoin? That’s a ratio of 1/2.4M (according to CoinMarketCap, but in reality, it’s likely even larger). Not to mention, almost all current projects seem to be mere ‘supporting actors’ for the lead role: Bitcoin.It would be naive to think that Bitcoin formed, developed, and succeeded naturally over the past 15 years. If you want to know who Satoshi Nakamoto is, first recognize what role Bitcoin will play in the future.An outdated and failing financial system; government debts are ballooning… The global monetary financial system seems to be on a one-way path toward a cliff ahead. Though it’s easy to see, no one knows how to turn back. Perhaps Bitcoin is the new road being built as a contingency for the ‘cliff’ ahead. As former President Trump recently said, don’t worry about the U.S. national debt, ‘just give a little Bitcoin—we’ll pay off the $35 trillion U.S. debt.’

#WeAreAllSatoshiv
#Bitcoin❗
#satoshiNakamato

A child, if you make them eat, sleep, and follow a routine at specific times, will eventually adopt that habit and consider it an obligation. The child does not know that they have the personal freedom to decide all of their own activities.
But it's not just children. Governments impose regulations and laws in subtle ways, leading people to mistakenly believe that following them is a responsibility and duty. However, in terms of personal freedom, many regulations strip away the rightful freedoms of individuals.
My introduction to Bitcoin and Crypto came from my curiosity, always asking "Why?" about everything I encountered in life.
Most people are content with the familiar things around them; the common mindset is that when everyone else accepts something, we naturally consider it the norm and follow along. But that's not me. I always want to get to the root of the issue instead of accepting it simply because it's become a habit, a culture, and something widely accepted.
For years, I’ve wondered: why can't I buy too much USD or other foreign currencies? Why can't I take more than $5,000 across borders? Why am I only allowed to buy and sell gold at specific designated places? Why can banks freeze and hinder transactions from my own account?
For me, when I lawfully create my own wealth, the ownership and decisions over my assets being controlled afterwards is highly unreasonable. Sure, there are reasons like preventing crime or money laundering, but one cannot sacrifice the rightful freedoms of citizens simply to manage the unlawful actions of a few.
Unfortunately, most governments around the world have similar financial regulations. When you examine the core of these rules, they are illogical, leading to the situation where people no longer truly own their assets. But the subtlety in how these controls are imposed and normalized makes people “get used to” them and see them as natural. Like obedient children who listen to adults without realizing the basic freedoms they should have.
$BTC Bitcoin and Crypto have allowed me to break free from the unreasonable controls of governments and take ultimate control of my own assets. Bitcoin and crypto have helped me discover my own value, the value of fundamental human rights that should not be compromised just because a minority doesn't follow the law.
As I dive deeper into how Bitcoin operates and the potential applications of Crypto, I realize that this is not just my future, but the future for everyone. It’s a future that will lead to a transformation of an outdated, backward financial system that infringes on basic human rights. A future for global financial reform, creating a free, transparent system with opportunities for everyone.
If you didn’t know: if someone controls your finances, they can control your life. Only when you have financial freedom can you truly have freedom in your life.
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Immediately after the FED cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years, signaling a shift in monetary policy from tightening to easing, the liquidity wall of tens of billions of USD in the 70,000$-72,000$ range was partially dismantled. This suggests that large investors have adjusted their strategies, beginning to exit short positions.The thick liquidity wall at the 70,000$ - 72,000$ range could be large sell orders (short positions) or stop orders from major investors. When the FED started to cut interest rates, these sell orders or hedge positions may have been removed to reduce risks, as they anticipate Bitcoin’s price to rise further.When the FED cuts interest rates, lower rates reduce borrowing costs, encouraging investment in risk assets like crypto. The reduction in short positions from large investors in the liquidity wall around the 70,000$ - 72,000$ range can be interpreted as a sign that they are predicting a bullish trend due to a more favorable monetary environment and the easing policies from the FED.This could be a signal that a significant price surge might be imminent as ample liquidity combines with the FED's monetary easing policies. The 70,000$ - 72,000$ range could remain a key resistance zone in the short term, but once the price breaks through this area, it is highly likely that we could witness $BTC reaching six figures before the end of 2024. There are virtually no resistance levels beyond this, except for the psychological barrier at 100,000$.


#short_position #FOMC_Decision #Bitcoin100K